Sunday, February 27, 2005

Reece is Running for Mayor

The official word will not come for another week but a brief mention was given about a comment Vice Mayor Alicia Reece made yesterday:
Cincinnati Vice Mayor Alicia Reece - who has hinted in recent months that she wants to run for mayor - will make it official March 6. Reece, a Bond Hill Democrat, said Saturday she will kick off her campaign for mayor after she returns from a fund-raising trip. Democrats David Pepper, a Mount Adams councilman, and Mark L. Mallory, a West End state senator, have announced their candidacies for the Sept. 13 primary. Charlie Luken is not seeking re-election.
This was not unexpected, she has been toying with the run for months now, but it is the awaited signal to start a chain of events that will define the make-up of the next City Council.

The next link is who Charter will run. Charter wants to field a candidate, but they only have two people with any legitimate shot at making any difference, Smitherman & Tarbell. Rumors about both have been circulating for months. Smitherman reportedly has already been gaining the required signatures to get on the ballot. Both possible candidates only chance to affect the election

Hiding in the background is the GOP. They have two still waiting in the wings for an endorsement, Painter and Winburn. Painter's candidacy seems to have faded. He made rumblings back last year that he would not run against Mallory. Winburn then get be in the driver's seat. Brinkman's name is being floated around as well. He would do nothing but pull down Pepper and or Winburn, so he would stand to only win a council seat, not the Mayor's office. I don't think he will run for Mayor, but I think he wants to be Mayor of a county wide city government.

If we have a 5 way race with 3 Dems, 1 Charterite, and 1 Republican the battle for the top two spots have a dynamic that turns on three demographics: the black vote, the Westside conservative votes, and the east side moderate/liberals.

The black vote is the most complicated and most likely to be spit over three or even four candidates. Mallory, Reece, Smitherman, and Winburn would all seek to base their support in the black community. Winburn would have the least claim to that, but could still have significant support, drawing it from the other three. Without Smitherman, both Reece and Mallory gain votes. Tarbell is who they both would be hoping gets in the race instead of Smitherman, because he takes virtually no black votes form them, and instead takes huge chunks of Pepper votes and many possible Winburn votes.

The Westside conservatives would go for the GOP label no matter who is there, but some will not go for Winburn because he is black. They will go for Pepper, or if Tarbell is the race they might float to him. Brinkman complicates this even further.

The Eastside moderates are in Pepper's pocket. They might be turned on by Mallory, Tarbell, or maybe even Reece. Brinkman would pick up the few rightwing extremists, but they are mostly on the Westside (or already have fled to the burbs.)

The liberals will also be tested. They would logically lean towards Mallory. They don't hate Pepper or Reece totally, but neither would be their first choice. Mallory will likely keep them, but needs the money of the moderates.

Pepper is the front runner at this point, way ahead of the rest of the field in the primary race. So far he has the top spot locked up. The race is for number two, and it is far early to say who will get it.

Jene Galvin gave an opinion on the race in CityBeat this week and his take on Reece is, shall we say, a bit optimistic. Nate is not even convinced with today's announcement that she is actually going to end up running.

1 comment:

  1. My informed source tells me that Pepper is paying Reece to run in order to split the Black vote w/ Mallory.

    Reece can't beat Pepper and the only thing she could be elected to after this year's Council term would be State Rep but she "lives" in Yates' district. At least Pepper's money buys her time to look for a new job since she's off Council once she's certified for the Mayor's race, but even then she has until August to withdraw from it and make a last run for Council.

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