2024 Hamilton County Election Turnout Analysis

Turnout in Hamilton County was down 3.5% compared to 2020. Here's a breakdown by City vs Non-City:

If you want a simple representation of the Macro analysis of the election, all you have to do is compare this to a few other counties in Ohio:

Turnout fell in suburban counties, but less than it dropped in the urban county.  The hypothesis that follows is that Republican votes retained more from 2020, while Democratic votes dropped. The two data points that are available for additional review are age and race.  Race is very limited, as it relies on census data in a precinct and can't be tied directly to voter's data.  When looking at areas with a majority black population, there is a larger drop in turnout.  The difference is over 2%, which while significant, is not conclusive with the sourcing of the data.  Age, on the other hand, can be tied directly to voters.

Here is a breakdown by generation within Hamilton County.

This data is based off of the Registered voter database.  That data is live and not exactly the same as certified results, but the total differential is at most a few hundred. My definition of each generation is consistent by year.  The inflated size of the Boomer generation is tied to the commonly accepted period of the "Baby Boom" and rounded up to 20 years.  Using 15 years for all other subsequent generations, as well as the Silent generation, provides for reasonable consideration of a generation.

Changes in registration numbers for Zoomers and Millennials contributes to some of their variation.  Millennials had a significantly higher drop in registrations than GenX. This would follow logically if you consider that Millennials are more likely to be either newer parents moving to the Exurbs or more likely moving farther away for work.  Additionally, since they have not been consistent voters, they could also be more likely to have been purged for inactivity or other partisan targeting.

Zoomers had a natural increase in registration, as more people reach age 18, but the turnout lagged far more than older generations. Young voters in Hamilton County continue their propensity to have lower turnout.

There is an Election Next Month, Have You Noticed?

Yesterday I was updating some data files that I normally use for my election analysis and I was thinking about why I am doing it.

I enjoy analysis, so I want to know how Hamilton County (HamCo) votes breakdown.  Which areas in the City will beat turnout from 2020?  Have voting precincts changed?  Lots of interesting items to play with.  So much of this seems like it is just for my own amusement.

Early voting data is available as well. It is annoying, however. As a true data geek, I like my control totals to match. The detailed absentee voter data one can download from the BOE does not exactly match the totals the BOE publishes. The differences are not huge, but noticeable. They would not change a basis point, only a small fraction. It would just make sense to have these match. Maybe after while things will catch up, as delays would account for much of the variances, but if there are other differences, I wish they would summarize the causes. I like to know why.

Hamilton County 2023 Turnout by Generation

Hamilton County voter turnout was the highest level for a local election in recent memory. Abortion rights drove most of the additional turnout. Here is voter turnout by Generation:

These numbers are based on the updated voter registration data, not the final results, so there is a small variance. Below are final summary turnout results in the county.  First broken down by City vs Non-City:

 

Additionally, for those who like detail, here is turnout based on Neighborhood in the City and on Municipality outside of the City.  

Note that the City Neighborhoods are approximate, based on a precinct breakdown.  All 52 are included, but some neighborhoods are unable to be broken out separately.

Hamilton County Voter Turnout by Generation in the 2022 General Election

Turnout in the Hamilton County Overall was down from 2018.  Here is the generational breakdown of the turnout by generation in the County, the City, and the non-City portion of the county in the 2022 General Election.

These numbers are up a bit from the final election night totals.  I pulled them from the Voter registration lists which have been updated with references to those who have voted. These are not official totals.  I presume the increase is due to additional mail in vote arriving and with the provisional votes.  The increase in the number of votes was 8,025 for the full county.  The data I am using is not "official" yet.  The Hamilton County BOE meets today to approve the provisional ballots and certify the results.

2018 overall turnout in Hamilton County was 57.52%.  I unfortunately do not have the same voter file data from 2018 saved to get a full comparison. I do have a comparison of 2020, 2021 and 2022.  This data is more difficult to compare year to year, as turnout has the variation between Presidential, Local, and MidTerm elections. To make up for that I added a measurement of Share of votes to the Share of Registered voters.  This is a totally made up ratio I created, but there are a couple interesting things:

The key takeaways: Gen Z (Zoomers) continues to underperform.  Their share of Registered voters Increased over 2020, which is just based natural aging (turning 18).  The rest of the generations either decreased or remained relatively even (Milliennials had a slight increase.)  Gen Z's share of votes dropped.  Their share of registered voters increased more than any other Generation, but they could not increase their share of votes.  This is insane because that means brand new Gen Z kids took the time to register, but didn't bother to vote.

This failure to vote by Gen Z in HamCo stands out from other reports in other states.  Many are attempting to praise younger voters for participating.  Well, I'm going to dismiss that participation trophy, because they didn't show up. No better can you see where the apathy, ignorance, and misinformation have taken the toll are on the Newly Registered Voters.  In 2022 here are the stats by generation of those with a Registration date in 2022:

5,461 members of Gen Z registered to vote in 2022, but failed to show up and vote in the general election.  That is 56.89% who took time to register to vote this year, but didn't bother to vote.  That is pathetic.  Millennials were on their heals in numbers, but managed to beat out Gen-X on the rate.  No Generation was great on this stat, which demonstrates that outreach to new registrations is something that needs to happen to get people to the polls.

We need to improve voter turnout and you can't just blame it on other people, those who get registered and don't vote are the ONLY people I am referencing in all of the stats I have put forth here.  Targeting that group is the key to change.  There is not a single way to improve it.  Many steps can be taken:  A national holiday on election day, improved education, improved outreach, better information and less disinformation.  More early voting, easier ways to update your registration and easier ways to update your address on your State ID or Driver's License also will help. None of those alone will do more than individuals getting off their assesses and going to vote EVERY election.

How Greg Landsman Defeated Steve Chabot in the Ohio 1st Congressional District

I am sure there are political journalists who will have a few thousands words describing how Greg Landsman defeated Steve Chabot in the Ohio 1st Congressional District.  I can sum it up much quicker. First with a chart:

My take on these numbers is broken down into four reasons why Landsman won:

1. In the City Landsman was able to increase the Democratic result compared to both 2018 and 2020. This blunted the 9.5% drop in turnout compared to 2018.
2. The Eastern Hamilton County suburb's Democratic support grew significantly. The chart above shows a narrow loss, but in 2020 and 2018, the Republican candidate got 56% and 55% respectively.  Chabot being a new candidate to most of this portion of the county was one cause for the loss of support for the Republican.  The likely bigger factor is the Republican brand is more and more that of extremism and anti-women. Chabot did nothing to defuse that image. Turnout here matched to Warren County.
3. Warren County turnout dropped ~5% from 2018 and the Democrats picked up a point or two on the results. Warren County has pockets of variation, but is largely a monolith.
4. Not having a Third Party Candidate made the choice clear and gave the anti-Chabot vote a place to go. This vote could account for the increases is the spread for Landsman in the City and Warren county.  It would be less apparent in the Eastern Suburbs, when as part of OH-2 those areas did not have third party competition.

The above numbers are unofficial.  As of this morning there are still thousands of outstanding absentee ballots that could come in and be counted.  Also there over 8K provisional ballots in Hamilton County and 1,800 in Warren County that will be reviewed.  These additional votes will not affect the final result, just maybe the spread.

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Early and Absentee Voting Trends for Hamilton County Slightly Up on 2018 Rates, SO FAR...

Through Friday October 28, 2022 Hamilton County data, Early and Absentee Voting totals combined are up in comparison to 2018.  The increase, however, is small at .69% (less than 1%).  Early in person voting continues to be much higher 66.24% up, but mail in (drop off) absentee numbers are -11.8% down.

By political party all in person early voting rates are up, but surprisingly the rate increase for Republicans is by far the highest.  By Total number count, Republicans are still the lowest group of in person early voting.

With numbers fairly close to being flat to 2018, that is a concern for what total turnout will be in 2022.  The reason for that concern is that the portion of the early/absentee voters of ALL voters likely will NOT be the same to 2018.  After COVID the portion of people voting by mail increased.  That number is down.  In person early voting is way up.  That increase may be affected by COVID on a small level, but more likely the increase relates to the convenience factor or those who have a 2020 holdover fear of making sure their votes counts. I don't think the making sure you vote count factor is a big deal, by any stretch.  I don't think it ever was.  I believe the reason early in person voting is up is because those with cars find it easy to vote early.  Those without cars and who use the bus lines and are dedicated to voting can make it happen.  The question is are those voting early those who wouldn't have voted otherwise? 

The only hard data I have to answer that question is: 16.2% of the votes cast thus far are by people who didn't vote in 2018, at least not here.  Only 5.5% of votes cast thus far are from people who did not vote in 2020.  Can we draw any conclusions from that?  I think the main take away so far is that the new registrations and new voters have not yet turned out in comparable numbers to the regular and highly consistent voters. A second take away is that overall Democratic party turnout is up, Republican and Non-Party turnout is down on the Early/Abs voting overall.  There are two reasons I can see making this true: 1) More Republicans being against mail voting or 2) Are deaths of older people reduced demographically the number of Republican voters who voted in 2018 via absentee mail?

Today (Saturday 10/29/2022) is the first day of weekend in person voting and will be one of days that is key for early turnout.  The expectation is that the volume would greatly exceed both the average daily number of in person voters, 1,029 and the correspond 1,708 voters on the first day of early voting in 2018. I think for turnout to be higher this year, we need to see a big day of something approaching 3,000 in person early voters.  We would then need more next weekend, which has Saturday voting and Sunday Afternoon voting during the final weekend before the election.

HamCo Early and Absentee Vote Totals by Generation as of 10-21-2022

 Early and Absentee votes are starting to come in for the November Election.  Numbers are significantly up in comparison to the last MidTerm election in 2018, but those numbers are pre-COVID so making any predictions about turnout being up for 2022 is not something I believe the data supports.  A simple logical presumption is that since the 2020 election, Early and Absentee voting has become a more popular option for Democrats.  Looking at Party ID in the early numbers, there is an uptick for Democrats vs Republicans, so that could explain some or even most of the increase in voting.

That being said, one reasonable conclusion to make is that there is no evidence of a drop off of the Turnout level from 2018.  That year was a high MidTerm turnout, with Democrats generally exceeding Republicans that year.  In 2020 turnout of course shifted for the Presidential year, so what if any affects that election brings with it for turnout is unknown.

Generationally the votes so far seem typical. There have only been 8 days of early voting so far, so these are only preliminary numbers, but for all votes so far, here's how they break down:

The Silent Generation would be expected to be a large portion of the Absentee voters as the older voters rely on mail in voting much more regularly than younger voters.  The poor showing for Millennials and Zoomers (Gen-Z) is still very troubling. 

 For comparison, if we look at only in person early votes, the numbers look like this:

The in person early voting does show a tilt for the younger voters, but the Boomer voters still dominate.  The number of registered Millennials is the largest segment of all voters in the county, but they continue to not vote.  They should be numbers be much higher.  The generation covers everyone in their 30's right now and they registered to vote, but can't find a way to vote.  Look at the voter registration in HamCo for this election:

The single biggest voting block in the county without question and they can't muster up 150 votes per day of in person voting to exceed GenX early voting.  Is the Millennials so uninformed on the election process that they just don't get how to vote?  How and why did they even get registered to vote in the first place?  GenX's turnout sucks too.  I won't deny that, especially as a member of GenX, but the Silent Generation still edged out Millennials with in person voting.  That is embarrassing.  More people aged 77 to 93 were able to get to Norwood and vote during the first 8 days of early voting than those 26 to 41.  There is plenty of time to voting, but Millennials really need to get off their duffs and vote.

There are Signs of Hamilton County Turnout Being Strong in 2022

There is no easy way to estimate voter turnout.  It varies by election and by location.  One factor that can be an indicator is voter registration.  I've done a simple analysis for Hamilton County of the voter registrations on the current listing and have compared the 2018 voter registrations to the 2022 voter registrations YTD though July.

This data has some limitations.  The first seven months of the year is not the height of registration, that happens in September and very early October. My reason for limiting the analysis to the first seven months of year is largely due to is where we are so far.  Additional problems come from the current registration listing.  This does not include those who are no longer listed as registered in Hamilton County.  It also does not include all of the rejected registrations as the time. Also, these registrations may not be new, they could be re-registrations. I chose 2018 to compare as it was the last Midterm election and as one that was very strong for Democrats. That time frame makes 2018 a skewed year as well, but the last Midterm election before that, 2014, was even more skewed as that year was nationally some of the lowest turnout ever, but locally it was influenced by a county wide ballot issue. With all of these flaws in mind, I still see two key inferences to make about this data.

First is the obvious: the registration totals are down in 2022 as compared to 2018.  This is important because 2018 was an increase turnout year for a Midterm and for Democrats.  A lower number of registrations would be a consideration of lower voter enthusiasm.  The part of the year is not the peak registration period, so the numbers could still raise, but the numbers were high in August through early October of 2018.  Registration increases is also a very limited indication of voter enthusiasm, especially since in 2020 voter registration was very high and those registrations are still valid.  More people have moved, so that also is a consideration on these numbers.  All in all, I would discount the comparison to 2018.  2018 brought in many new voters and there registration would have stay around, especially if they voted in 2020.  While there is no definitive data to support it, I would say the 2022 registrations only being down YTD by 6% and the surge in June and July are a good signs for higher turnout and voter enthusiasm.

The second issue requires more digging into the numbers.  Voter enthusiasm is often driven by issues and 2022 has Abortion as that issue.  The Dobbs Decision was announced on June 24, 2022. Additionally, a leak of that decision was widely reported in early May.  The registration numbers in 2022 started to spike in May and continued to be even higher higher in June and July than in 2018. That is a sign that the YTD differences in registrations may change and that 2022 will exceed or at least match 2018.  Add to that the fact that registration and turnout increased with the 2020 election, new voters are still increasing, pointing to 2022 having similarities with 2018 here in Hamilton County.

The next level of digging looks at the generational swing starting immediately after the June 24th announcement of the Dobbs decision.

There is a clear shift in the generational breakdown after the Dobbs discussion was announced. The increase in Millennials and Zoomers logically ties to polling on abortion rights, where younger aged people are even great supporters of reproductive rights than older generations. This is evidence that supports the reports of increases in women registering to vote in Ohio since Dobbs.  The data I have does not include sex, so I can't directly confirm this conclusion, but logically, the Dobbs motivation would be a key driver to both younger generations and women in general.

Taken together, these are signs that voter enthusiasm has increased and that should translate to stronger turnout.  This does not answer to what level or how consistent turnout will be in all demographic groups, but for anyone expecting low turnout, there are few signs of that in Hamilton County. If turnout in Hamilton County and especially in the City of Cincinnati reach the level of 2018, that would favor Democratic candidates in the County.  Additionally, it would give the Dems strong support in the 1st Congressional district.  That district includes only part of Hamilton County and but all of Warren County, which I have not analyzed.  This data supports Dems being confident in a district being reported as a toss up, but with a slight tilt of Biden support.  The campaign to get the vote out will be the factor in the 1st district above all else.

Cincinnati Neighborhood Populations From the 2020 Census

 Understanding Cincinnati's neighborhoods is a complex undertaking.  Knowing the boundaries of each neighborhood is a contested concept before any other considerations are made.  The population of each neighborhood is therefore going to have criticism. I've taken a leap and come up with an updated population summary based on my determination, down to the block level. I used a 2010 set of maps from the City of Cincinnati's website with census data breakdowns that included Tract and BlockGroup details per neighborhood.  I compared that information and made adjustments based on changes to the 2020 census that included changes to the Tract, BlockGroup and Blocks designations.

That was annoying.  Why the United States Census Bureau would change tract numbers within an old city like Cincinnati is beyond my knowledge. I'd surmise it would beyond any reasonable logic available. If you know why, don't tell, but still let me know, my hairline could use an additional reduction.  Anyway, I made my determination.  Here's what I have in alphabetical order for the population of each Cincinnati neighborhood based on the 2020 Census:

 

So, there are some obvious notations to point out: 1) My chart only shows 51 of the 52 Neighborhoods.  That is what they City did after the 2010 census, so I followed that pattern.  The missing neighborhood is the Heights, which is basically the University of Cincinnati Campus, but what it includes beyond that is more debated.  It is included with CUF in the chart above. 2) The block level variation comes down from two sources within the census data, the voting precinct data provided and the municipalities that split some BlockGroups.

If anyone has a variation and would like to compare data, I would be more than happy to exchange information.  Leave a comment, email me, or reach out on Twitter. 

Bonus chart: Here is the same data set, sorted in descending order by Total Population.

Update: I found a few errors and have corrected them in both charts.  Additionally, here is a comparison to the 2010 data I have.  There still could be some additional changes caused by variation in the Tract and detailed groupings.

2021 Cincinnati City Election Generation Turnout

Democrats won a Mega Majority on City Council this year and nearly as many Boomer's voted than GenXers and Millennials combined.

I just don't know what to say about this. The classic notion is if you don't participate, then you have zero credibility if you complain. I will be sure to find a way to point that out to annoying young leftists on Twitter that bug me.

For comparison here is the turnout in 2020 for the same set of registered voters from 2021.

A comparison of the two looks like this:

The younger generations are refusing to participate in elections in remotely similar ratios to older generations.  This is not a new occurrence, but I would speculate the Millennials are staying uninvolved longer than prior generations. We in GenX are nothing to crow about either, just to be fair.

What truly I don't get: Why bother to registered to vote if you are not going to vote? There are Tens of Thousands of people who don't bother to vote, but for some reason felt the need to register to vote.

What was Turnout Like in the 2021 City of Cincinnati Elections?

The simple truth about the 2021 City of Cincinnati Election turnout is that it was historically low. There is no question that a large majority of registered voters did not want to vote in this election. Why it is low is not easy to answer with out more data.  People will make lots of claims about why, but they will be either anecdotal or speculation.  What I have below are some statistics based on turnout data from the BOE's live turnout tracker.  I have created these based on two data points that are derived on other data I have compiled.  

The first data point is on the race demographics of each precinct.  I used the 2020 census data that provided population by race within each precinct.  I made a determination of which race was a clear majority of each precinct.  Where there was not a clear majority or the numbers were close, I considered that precinct a mix.

The second data point is neighborhood.  I have assigned a single neighborhood identification to each precinct.  This assignment is very much an approximation.  Four neighborhoods are not represented as I determined they are a minority portion of another precinct.  This was done by reviewing varied maps provided by the City and by the County's CAGIS map software.  These assignments could certainly be debated and if someone sees an error, please let me know.

The first chart I have looks at turnout grouped by the majority race of each precinct for 2021 compared to the turnout of 2017.  Please note the numbers listed are NOT a total of people who are of a particular race. The numbers are the registered voters and those who voted in precincts that have a majority of a particular race. I am sure most people get this, but unfortunately some people don't like to read the details and will just point to parts of labels and extrapolate bad data.  I hope that does not happen.

The biggest take away I see here is that the reduction in turnout compared to 2017 was overall fairly equivalent through these segments.  There is a larger decrease in turnout in black majority precincts, than white majority precincts, but oddly enough the mixed precincts changed nearly the same as white majority precincts. There could have been an effect on the election if the turnout was more closely aligned, but at best that could have affected the ninth spot in the race. The lower turnout in black majority precincts is in line with the 2020 election where each of the segments had turnout of 56.35%, 57.64%, and 68.81% respectively, so there are no factors that would be variant with other recent elections.

The next chart dives into a comparison of the neighborhood and ward turnouts.  I included a comparison to 2017 turnout rates and a vote total retention number as well. As I stated before, these neighborhoods are approximate and they are broken out by ward, as several neighborhoods are split between more than one ward.  In this detail you can see many neighborhoods and wards did not drop in turnout, as compared to 2017, as much as others.  It's difficult to see big patterns, but you can see that certain neighborhoods had a bigger impact on the election.  Hyde Park is regularly an important neighborhood for elections and this year that continued.  I will be examining the success of each candidate in the neighborhoods as I compile more data from yesterday's election.

Historical Data from Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017

 Historical data from the Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017.

The turnout has been at extremely low levels in 2013 and 2017.  The 2017 number is somewhat misleading with the increase in registered voters coming from the 2016 Presidential Election. We see a turnout in direct numbers increasing by 7.4% from 2013 to 2017.

Early reports from BOE indicates that turnout will be in the 30% to 35% range for the county.  That likely puts it on the lower end of that for the City, so it would be in line with recent elections.  One known point, the number of registered voters in 2021 is about 216,186, so less than 2017, but fairly comparable.

The most interesting facts:

1. The average number of votes cast per ballot have historically been relatively consistent around 6.
2. The top winning nine candidates have received at least 57% of all votes.

Generational Voting Segments in Hamilton County, Ohio

 I know there are other nerds out there who wonder which generations vote locally?  I let loose a little bit of my Nerdiness on a spreadsheet and created the chart and table displayed below. They detail the last two federal elections and breaks down the generations listed on the Hamilton County Registered Voter listing as of 09/25/2020.