Cincinnati Blog: City Council

Showing posts with label City Council. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election October 2023 Update

The election is two weeks away and for City Council, we have no change. We are still going to have 8 Democrats on City Council. The largest majority for a single party in many decades. The right wing is seething over this and leftists are angry about not getting their way with a tiny number of supporters. There is a real race for the last two spots. I personally can see three ways for it turn out:

1. Liz Keating gets a bigger boost from incumbency and short ticket Republican voting and edges higher (6th or 7th place), pushing the last spot to an Albi-Walsh race.

2. Democratic turnout surges and the power of the slate is bigger with Issue 1 increasing turnout into the upper 30s percentage range and leaves Keating on the outside.

3. A three person race ensures; with Keating, Albi, and Walsh in a very close race that goes late into the night or even relies on provisional ballots to decide.

As usual, the flop on election night is what is the most interesting predictor. The flop, as I consider it, is the initial report the Hamilton County BOE makes on election night that reports the Early and Absentee vote totals. This occurs fairly early in the evening, sometimes even before 8 PM. With early voting a significant share from across the city, the initial results are unlikely to change if the variances between candidates are large enough. This year, that will be the tell for Keating. If she is anywhere other than 10th place, she has a good shot. If she is in 10th place, then she needs to be VERY close to the 9th place candidate. As Republicans are generally not voting early in as large of numbers as Dems, she would stand to get a better surge of votes, especially with a spike of short ticket voting, from the election day votes. With fewer Republicans in the City, that may not be enough. Especially, since her two primary competitors, Albi and Walsh, would more than likely NOT be candidates a moderate or conservative voter would consider including on their ballot.

Issue 22 is not easily predictable. The Support of the Democratic party and the silence from the Republican party make for a favorable outlook for passage, but it depends on turnout and if people vote down the ballot on most things.

Issue 23 should win with ease. It is a reasonable measure that creates some improvements to the election process and operation of the City Council.

Issue 24 will very likely fail. No one wants to vote for a income tax increase. Add to that the issue is just another leftist scheme to force policy to the city without vetting the details of the plan and creating something that would intentionally tie the hands of future city councils is not a good idea.

Statewide Issues and 1 and 2 have one poll showing both with decent support. Polling is not something to put much faith into, especially a single poll, but this poll is consistent with prior polling on the abortion issue generally in Ohio. There is no reason to expect a big drop in support for Issue 1, especially if turnout matches the August special election.

I am annoyed with the extreme level of propaganda from people against Issue 22. They have limited financial support, but the talking points that are being used by the anti-22 team online is either massively misleading or it is so generalized that it has no meaning. I am very disappointed with some individuals that have signed on with the Smitherman/COAST cabal leading the anti-22 efforts. They have what I can best consider an emotional attachment to keeping the rail road and not a logical or analytical reasoning for their position. Fear that they can't control it seems more of their concern than the better financial position the city will obtain with the sale.

There have been few other outside groups with significant endorsements widely reported this year. I can find no FOP endorsements and WVXU reports Liz Keating got a Charter endorsement, but other than a Xitter post about a fundraiser for Keating, I didn't find much on their support. I hear many complaints from Republicans and others about not having other candidates with diverse ideas to chose from, but Republicans and Charter have the means to support additional candidate to run, but they can't find any who are credible. That is NOT the Dems fault, that is the fault of Republican and Charter organizations. They need better leadership and real organization. You can't phone it in or be known as a party of extremists. Maybe in 2025 they will find some candidates. I don't expect much.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent

Monday, September 25, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election September 2023 Update

Tumble weeds are traveling across the pollical landscape in the 2023 Cincinnati City Council race. There is nearly no campaigning going on. With only ten candidates that is not a surprise. Audricia Brooks did not, after final review by the Hamilton County Board of Elections, have enough signatures on her petitions. That leaves only endorsed candidates running, with only one non incumbent. The race is down to two questions:

Will Liz Keating get a support boost and finish higher and safer in the race, or will she be back competing for last place again like she did in 2021.
Will Albi or Walsh fair better than any of the seven previously elected candidates?

At this point, I would say with the expected high turnout amongst Democrats in November for the various ballot issues, I see Liz Keating's prospects of pushing higher up the rankings to be low. That means to me the only action will be for the last two spots among Keating, Wasl, or Albi. Those three need to campaigning. Keating has a funding advantage and if she targets Republicans and Moderates, she might have enough to defeat the Democratic Party Lists.

With no big change possible on City Council, this means that only about a couple dozen people will be paying much attention to the council race. The other ballot issues will take all of the media attention, so other then election night, I don't think much more will be published, unless a candidate tries to gain attention by creating controversy.

There is nothing wrong with a quiet election. I think it is actually quite refreshing. There is a chance that these ten candidates could wage a full on retail election, with direct door to door or event connection.

The City, County and State ballot issues will be drawing the attention and generating the turnout, so the political parties will be spending there and not on the City Council race. I fully expect all statewide issues to be nasty campaigns. The religious right is not against lying and cheating, so I expect we shall see a lot of that. I dread the lies, but that is politics now, especially those out to influence the ignorant. The electorate is made up of so much ignorance that it can be far too exploited. It is what will doom Democracy.

Candidates

As always: If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election August 2023 Update

There are 11 candidates for the 2023 Cincinnati City Council election. The August 24th deadline to turn in petitions came and went this week and no additional candidates turned any in. That is the smallest number of candidates in decades, at least since 1989 and likely longer ago. There are nine Democrats, one Republican, and one Independent candidate running. Charter has yet to officially announce any cross endorsements they may be doing this year, but they would logically repeat the one candidate in this race who was cross endorsed in 2021, Republican Liz Keating.

One candidate, Richardo Hayward, turned in petitions, but had an insufficient number of valid signatures to qualify. He could still appeal this decision if he was close to the 500 signatures needed, but he likely was not close enough to find any variance to make up the difference.

This will be an election with both a foregone conclusion for a Democratic victory and a real race for the last two seats on council. The race should come down to Republican Liz Keating, Seth Walsh, and Ann Albi. Audricia Brooks is a new candidate and no indication of any support, but with the lack of names on the ballot, she has a chance to win, depending on who votes and how they vote. There are multiple scenarios that have more than a minimal possibility to occur. I've yet to game all of them out, but those variables are the only element of the City Council Race that are in question. The ballot issues pending are a very different story. I expect those races, especially the Railroad issue, to have more contention and questions on the outcome.

Candidates

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Saturday, August 26, 2023

Cincinnati Democrats Win Super Majority on City Council in 2023 Before a Single Vote is Cast

Without a single vote cast, I can project that the Cincinnati Democratic Party will retain AT LEAST seven seats and a super majority on Cincinnati City Council. For those skeptical of my basic math skills, please note that the Democrats have endorsed nine candidates for City Council and there are two other candidates on the ballot. So, the Democratic candidates just need to vote for themselves at a minimum and they are going to get seven on council.

Not withstanding the angst from the local City Hall Report from the Enquirer in Thursdays "commentary", it is not the fault of the Democrats that only two other candidates are on the ballot. The Democrats are operating in the same system as every other person and party in the City. This may make the race boring as there are no fire breathers in the race to make for good copy. This means that all the more time to devote to policy and the City Issues on the ballot. Plus, there are two non-Democratic endorsed candidates with a chance to win.

The failure for the low number of candidates falls on the other political parties/groups in the City. They gave up. They could not muster up the organization to get behind candidates and make a run. Trying to push that blame on the success of Democrats is bias from the Enquirer, envy from the Republican Party, and from at least one former council candidate, Michelle Dillingham, who's own hubris led to not being part of the leadership of the part she has routinely attacked for not giving her power.

Republicans have gone insane, so they can't field any type of slate other than one single candidate, who has gone OUT OF HER WAY to be as moderate as she can possibly be. Their party has become so Trumpist, they can't get any other palatable Republicans to run. They will have to rely on moderates to back Liz Keating for her to have a chance to win. With the expected surge in Democratic Turnout in November's election for the Abortion rights Issue, that may not be enough.

Charter seems to have fully retreated. There would see like there is a place for the Charter Committee to retain some minor influence on council, but their power base has faded out. The group may be more suited to working on City specific ballot issues and avoid trying to get candidates elected.

Leftists seem to have blown their wad in the 2021 election year and failed so miserably that they were scared off of running out any other candidates. As is so often the case, leftists divide themselves, because the activists each want personal power more than anything else. If a group of activists had worked together and picked a single candidate to get behind, they could actually make a showing. However, if they are full on leftists, they also must realize that their views are not popular. There is no silent hoard waiting to rise up for the revolutionary cause or even get them close to getting on council.

The last two years have been quiet, relaxed years. The Enquirer, Republicans, and Leftists have tried to manufacture controversy and scandal to fulfil their self-interests. They are to blame for not wanting elected officials to govern, they want them to play their games, each to own ends. I myself like sane, quiet governance. Ask questions, but don't assume a 5th column of conspirators are around every corner because that potion is what gets you more likes on social media. Getting attention is not politics, it is marketing. Policy is politics. Focus on that and less on drama. Drama is for the stage, not for City Hall.

Wednesday, August 09, 2023

Issue 1 Turnout and the Abortion Issue on the Ballot Will Impact the Cincinnati Council Elections, But How?

Issue 1 went down in flames, but that was not the only development in local Politics here in Cincinnati. City Council Elections are coming up and turnout is going to drive who get's elected, partially. Turnout was higher than expected within Cincinnati for the single issue special August election. Traditionally, you can't get anyone to vote in August. The August 8th election instead had higher turnout than the last council election in 2021. City voters would now be expected to come out to vote in numbers as least as high in November and that will impact the race for City Council.

At this point, there are only 11 candidates currently set to make the ballot with the August 24th deadline FAST approaching. Nine endorsed Democrats, one presumedly endorsed Republican, and one Independent candidate. There is only one other name amongst those who have taken out petitions that could compete and her act blue fundraising website states it is inactive and not accepting contributions. I am counting her out.

That means unless there is some hidden candidates or one comes out at the last minute in the next two weeks, we can be sure that the Democratic Party will retain a supermajority on council by doing nothing but voting for themselves.

That does leave two seats in play, but with the abortion issue coming this fall, not to mention multiple other issues (Weed legalization, Sale of the Cincinnati Railroad, and an odd Issue that could raise the income tax later) it looks like Democrats could win all nine seats on council. You will have to go to way back to find that type of single party rule. I honestly don't like the concept, but I see it as the most likely thing to happen. The Abortion, Weed, and RailRoad sale issues will suck all of the air out of election season and that means the expected larger number of voters, more than the 32% turnout rate the City had for the August 8th Special Election, will push the nine Dems ahead.

It is possible that through strategic voting by Conservatives and Moderates along with Progressive/Leftists campaigning for a long shot leftist candidate playing spoiler couldget Republican Liz Keating elected.

Eastside Moderates vote and Eastside Moderates like Liz Keating. An organized target voting campaign could make the difference. Most people do not vote for nine candidates, but most vote for at least six. If moderates, who usually pick more than six, instead vote for one or two candidates, that MIGHT shake things up enough to make one of the two unelected candidates fall from get the nineth spot.

I am not advocating for a short ticket strategy. I believe in voting for best candidates, not just the one or two who might agree with me the most. I voted for seven last time. I would say I may be a the same number this time. Maybe eight or nine, it depends.

If the Democratic voters don't turn out in similar numbers not only will the Abortion rights issue faulter, Liz Keating will likely get on council.

By the end of the month we should be set on the ballot and know if anyone else will even get on the ballot. If there are more than 15 I would be very surprised. I can only find ten candidates who are fundraising so far. If you don't have your own money, then you are just not going to get elected without some fundraising.

I will update the candidate listing late this month as soon as the deadline passes to submit petitions. This is going to be a big general election, but I think the 2023 City Council Election will be by far the most uneventful and predictable one of the 20+ years I have been blogging about them.

Sunday, July 23, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election July 2023 Update

Are there going to be more than ten candidates for Cincinnati City Council? There is barely anyone outside of the nine endorsed Democrats and the one Republican who has any online campaign presence. Simple social media content is the cheapest and quickest way to actually have a campaign and I can find few with any presence. That lack of any online footprint means they have limited their ability to raise any funds. It is difficult to raise money and wage any type of campaign at this late stage without a political party or other PAC endorsements.

The deadline to turn in signatures to get on the ballot is just over a month away, August 24, and at this point any serious candidate would be raising money. I only see 10-11 serious candidates currently and Jamie Castle is the 11th who at this point would be on the ballot, but after she did not get the Democratic Party endorsement, she made a comment to the media that she may not run. So far she has not withdrawn her petitions.

The only variables in the race that could shake things up as if now is the outcome of the August 9th special election and if the Reproductive Rights ballot issue that is in process to be approved for the General Election in November. The outcomes of those items will GREATLY alter the turnout in November.

If the Issue 1 No vote wins in August and Reproductive rights are on the ballot in November, turnout will be much higher in the City and that should be highest amongst voters who favor Reproductive Rights. That turnout would play havoc with a City Council Race with only a smaller number of candidates on the ballot.

If there were only 12 to 15 candidates on the ballot and only really 12 candidates with a viable chance, that could mean that the last 2 seats would really be in play. That assumes that seven Democrats, all of the elected incumbents, would be safe. That is not a done deal, but there would need to be a very big shift from the last election to alter the results this year. I don't see that happening.

The Demographics of Cincinnati have not changed significantly since 2021. The only big variable would be for turnout to change the demo of those who vote. That is possible, but with a small number of credible candidates, voters are not going to just vote for other without a reason.

The open window, which always exists in Council Races, is for a well known candidate to enter the race late. As far as any person who has taken out petitions thus far, 12 is the max who anyone would consider a credible candidate. The only bait and switch that could occur would be that one or more of the individuals who have taken out petitions are actually doing it on behalf of another candidate. An unusual and unlikely occurrence, but not impossible.

The inclusion of local tax levies and the Railroad Sale to the ballot will also drive out turnout, even if the Reproductive Rights issue is not on the ballot, so that also can make things interesting, but in the City the type of voter those issues tend to get out to vote are conservatives, which is not a large demographic for Council elections.

My prediction is that less than 20 people will be on the ballot and 15 would be the number I would bet on at the point. Candidates who wait until the last minute and don't have any campaign actually going are going to be long shots, so if no campaigns show any sense of life in the next few weeks, I would say no one new is coming out of the wood work.

What is so funny, is that Republicans and Charterites were largely responsible for the return to two year terms for members of council. They feared the Dems would maintain majorities with 4 year terms and lock in support. It appears, with neither group showing any sign of supporting candidates, that Dems got the same thing with two year terms. That is jumping the gun, but we are on track for Dems winning a majority on council before a single vote is cast.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Mark Jeffreys *(D)
Scotty Johnson *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)
Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (C)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (I)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (I)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Richardo Hayward (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Kelley Cowdrey (R)
Gwendolyn Edogun (I)

Taken Out Petitions, But Do Not Appear to Live in the City
Sharetha Collier (I)
Andrew Kennedy (I)

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election June 2023 Update

After a long delay, the Cincinnati Democratic Committee finally made its endorsements for Cincinnati City Council race. All eight sitting members were endorsed, along with first time candidate Anna Albi. Minor grumblings were present from a significant portion of precinct executives present at the media. Those grumblings were both enhanced and amplified by the local media in attendance at the meeting. It never ceases to amaze me how "drama" can be whipped up into fodder for the local media. I was especially dismayed at the display of bias from the Cincinnati Enquirer's "reporter" Sharon Coolidge who embarrassed herself with her Opinion article about the meeting. The following exaggeration was built to stroke Suburban Republicans egos with a talk radio narrative their prejudice embraces.

Instead, the Cincinnati Democratic Committee meeting Tuesday night in an Evanston union hall went down like a reality show that could rival any 'Housewives' reunion on Bravo.
Add that to a remarkable lack of understanding of Roberts Rules of Order by multiple reporters and participants in the meeting. I would hate to think what a reporting attending a nine member council meeting would do, when four members vote in favor of an ordinance, three vote against, and two abstain. The ordinance would pass. It is a fairly common function of most voting situations in all legislatures and or voting bodies within organizations. It made me think of a scene from All the Presidents Men (1976)

WOODWARD: Who's Charles Colson?

ROSENFELD: Sit Down. You know I’m glad you asked me that question. The reason I’m glad you asked me is because if you asked Simons or Bradley they would’ve said you know we’re going to have to fire this schmuck at once because he’s so dumb.

There are few would would get that reference, but that small group is my core audience!

The Democrats had ten possible candidates for the nine council spots. They did not endorse Jamie Castle. News reports indicates she was considering not continuing her run. I think the mere mention of this in multiple news articles would drastically hurt any campaign.

The lack of viable candidates in the race this year makes the possible outcomes of the last couple of seats open. At this point there are at most 12 or 13 candidates who can muster the level of votes to win. The logical thing for non-Democrats and non-Republicans to do is get behind Jamie Castle and see how far they could take it. She has the signatures to be on the ballot. Someone like Michelle Dillingham should be running her campaign and to pull in the progressive/leftist support she has and see what moderate support she can pick up. Instead of that, Michelle Dillingham took out petitions to run and teased via Tweet that she is thinking about running. She didn't announce she was running, she teased that she might run. I didn't see a big response to her Tweet. At this late date in the world of campaign fundraising, it is a foolish move to attempt it. Dillingham might better spend her time working to defeat Issue 1 this August, than wasting her time running for City Council. Ego is tough for an activist to look past.

Charter Committee seems to be thinking about the Rail Road, but not fielding any candidates for Council. They will certainly allow Liz Keating to slap a Charter label on her campaign, but we won't see much of them otherwise.

Republicans are just doing nothing. They have all but given up on fielding any candidates beyond Liz Keating who is running as a RINO, literally as a Republican in Name Only. Keating will take GOP money, but is not run away from any Republican who would piss off Hyde Park Moderates. Saylor Park can just go fuck off for being Trumpistan. California (the neighborhood) can do the same with a small pond full of staunch Republican votes, but they are it, in the City. The rest of the County is drying up on knuckle dragging Troglodytes, but the County Party lives and dies on a weak Trumpist brand fascism, heaving on hollow red meat, to keep the foaming mouths from splitting the party.

The hot summer is upon us and I see little new to tilt the campaign beyond conventional wisdom. No candidates are making waves with any new ideas and no scandals seem to be breaking through, No matter how desperately the Enquirer and Suburban Republicans are to make it happen out of thing air.

The bet for the summer is OVER/UNDER on 15 as the number of candidates who are on the ballot for City Council in November. As far as viable candidates, UNDER without any doubt. As far as total candidates, I would say OVER, but barely over 15. What would it take it get sports betting to include political races in Ohio? Would that increase turnout? Someone would call it corrupt and someone else would say it wouldn't make it any more corrupt than it already is, but odds are neither of those complainers would vote for City Council anyway.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Mark Jeffreys *(D)
Scotty Johnson *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)
Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (C)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (I)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (I)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Richardo Hayward (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Kelley Cowdrey (R)

Taken Out Petitions, But Do Not Appear to Live in the City
Sharetha Collier (I)
Andrew Kennedy (I)

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Friday, June 02, 2023

Let's See Action, Let's See People, Let's See Freedom, Let's See Who Cares

A big news Friday for the Cincinnati City Council Election. There is controversy that will stir up a little bit of coverage for an otherwise uneventful and unnervingly quiet election year. Council Member Seth Walsh is the subject of an Ethics Investigation by the City's Office of Ethics and Good Government. The issue is that Walsh's campaign manager, now reportedly former campaign manager, was allegedly directing Walsh city staffer on what to do.

On the surface, that really does not seem like a big deal. Every Republican and Leftist crank will be filled with self righteous ire with my dismissal of this allegation. I am not going to lose sleep over it and I am not even sure this is "unethical." So far there is no allegation of any illegality, a detail that is not at the forefront of some of the news reports.

Unless other allegations or information not already reported comes to light, this is at best going to be a minor political story and fodder for snide Twitter comments from at least one rejected applicant for the appointment to council Walsh received. I won't mention their name, but I continue to see why they were not considered for the appointment.

Something to remember: There is not a "church and state" type of communication line in a council member's office. Creating a good image and getting media coverage is part of the job. Yes, that makes them look good and that helps the campaign and is what the campaign wants. Making phone calls to raise money or helping plan a campaign fund raiser while on the clock is not allowed. If that type of action was alleged, I would have expected that to be in the letter. Instead, communication by the person making the allegation indicates that Walsh never made any requests to do campaign work while on the job.

There will be those claiming purity on the actions of the campaign staffer, but they would be grasping at straws and that is such a waste of time. This can at most be a judgement on Walsh's ability to vet and manage his own staff. If this story gets much more coverage than when the ethics office reports on the investigation, then I for one will cry fowl on any journalist doing that. If there is more to this, then publish new credible allegations, but trying to just make this into a bigger story based on the facts known now will look so insanely biased. We can be thankful that Jason Williams is no longer writing a political column. I am sure he would attempt to make this into a federal case as a further try out for his conservative talk radio career. I have fingers crossed for Jason's fledging radio career, hoping he can move out of journalism altogether.

More from the Enquirer and the Business Courier.

Friday, May 19, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election May 2023 Update

In 2017 we knew by the end of April who was endorsed as a Democratic Candidate for City Council. Prior to that they endorsed 10 candidates in 2013 and it was a mess. In 2021 there was pointless drama when the progressive wing wanted to endorse a candidate that attacked the party in favor of extremist policies. I don't have any foolish expectations that this year will be any different. With seven elected incumbents (and one appointed incumbent) the process should logically be different. The Hamilton County Democratic Party just this week published a notice that the Cincinnati Democratic Committee will be holding a meeting on May 25th to vote on the party endorsements. I've heard little chatter about this year's endorsement round, but there not many active non-incumbent candidates making much noise, so this election cycle everything has been near silence in public. Last month the party published the notice of the endorsement processes and it included a key provision on candidate interviews, something I don't recall seeing before:

Candidates must have petition signatures submitted and reported as “Sufficient” by the Hamilton County Board of Elections staff before their endorsement interview.

As of Friday evening there are only eight candidates with their petitions reported as sufficient. That includes only six incumbents of eight. I don't know if the previously elected incumbents are required to be interviewed again. The notice was not specific on that point. The only appointed member of City Council, Seth Walsh, has turned his signatures in to the BOE. There are only two non-incumbents with signatures submitted, Anna Albi and Jamie Caslte. Both are approved for the ballot. That leaves two questions for the process: 1) Will all incumbents get endorsed and 2) Which of the two non-incumbents will get endorsed. Of course it is possible that the answer to #1 is no and that makes the presumption that both non-incumbents would be endorsed. There is no indication that the Democratic Party has any intention to upend the process. There are not any candidates that have any public negatives that would mean squandering the advantages of incumbency to the election. That leaves the endorsement choice between Castle and Albi.

The Hamilton County Republican Party just updated their website this week to show the new chairman that was elected months ago. They don't seem to want to bother with much promotion of their City Council candidate(s). The local elections they are successful in Hamilton County are small monolithic areas that rarely have any actual competition. At this point if they had any candidates other than Liz Keating for Cincinnati City Council, that candidate would be campaigning in the City (at least online.) I see no one other Republican candidates with a serious chance of getting elected in the City.

Charter Committee appears to be adrift. There is no evidence of any candidates that will be on the ballot, except a likely cross endorsement of Republican Liz Keating. 2021 was terrible election for Charter. It was nothing short of a blood bath. I don't know what it will take for Charter to get back on its feet. There is at least one person on the Charter Board who is not going to help bring them back from the brink. If anything this person is going to drive them off the deep end into permanent oblivion.

Here are the 26 candidates who have taken out petitions so far. I would be surprised if any other credible candidates take out petitions and I would not be surprised that only 15-18 candidates actually make the ballot.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)
Reggie Harris (D)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Mark Jeffreys (D)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R,C)
Seth Walsh (D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
James Jenkins (C)
Andrew Kennedy (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (D)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (D)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Sharetha Collier (D)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Quentin Taylor (I)

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Saturday, April 08, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election April 2023 Update

Not sure about you, but if I didn't know better, I would think we are still a year or more away from the next Cincinnati City Council Election. In reality, the deadline to turn in petitions to get on the ballot for the election is a mere four and a half months away.

That means campaigns, any serious campaign, should be in high gear. At this point, I don't see any campaign in high gear. Sure, the incumbents are in the news, but campaigning seems to be quiet. The main reason for this is likely the overwhelming victory of the Democratic Party in the last election (2021.) Nothing seems to be happening from any other group to challenge them. The Republicans seem to be settling for a single seat, which they are only hanging on to because Republican Liz Keating has taken very moderate stances while in office and campaigning.

The Charter Committee seems to be either dead or has gone into indefinite hibernation. They have no coherent message message to offer, other than being the party that will cross endorse candidates and the only value there is that a few more donors will contribute to a moderated Republican candidate (like Keating).

That leaves only two questions at this point for the November election. 1) Who will get the 9th Democratic Party Endorsement and 2) Will Michelle Dillingham run for office?

The answer to #1 seems to be lining up for Jamie Castle. At this point, there are no other experienced and credible Democrats who have taken out petitions to get on the ballot. Those nominations should be made very soon.

The answer to #2 on the surface seems like no, Michelle Dillingham is not running for City Council. Her campaign website is gone and since she and her supporters really poorly handled the process to appoint a replacement for Greg Landsman's seat late last year, her electability has not improved. If she still wants to get on council it might be a good idea to sit out a cycle or two and wait for some term limits to come into play or other churn on council to open up more seats and gamble that people will forget how her history of needlessly confrontational campaigning and social media discourse would be a sign that she would not be good at governing and is more of just an activist, with the goal of gaining attention for a cause.

Does that leave us with a race only for ninth place? Is this a Liz Keating v Jamie Castle race? OR will Liz climb higher in the results as the only Republican candidate? Republicans are just fading away in both the City and Hamilton County, but low voter turnout has traditionally been beneficial to Republican candidates. At this point there is nothing point to anything other than a conventional wisdom election.

I am sure leftists will ache and moan about something, while they continue to fail to create a viable governing strategy. Instead they will continue to push a puritanical socialist agenda that has so far produced nothing but losing campaigns.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)

Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)

Mark Jeffreys *(D)

Scotty Johnson *(D)

Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Jamie Castle (D)

Andrew Kennedy (I?)

Boyd Miller (R)

Stephan Pryor (?)

LaKeisha N. Cook (D)

James K. Jenkins (I?)

Catherine Botos (?)
Rufus Bowman (?)
Audricia Brooks (?)
Lawrence Brzezinski (?)
Linda Matthews (R)
Boyd Miller (?)
Quentin Taylor (?)

Maybe Could Still Run?
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Jackie Frondorf (D,C)
Alyson Steele Beridon (D)
Brian Garry (D)

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

Cincinnati City Council Elections are Less Than One Year Away

November 7, 2023 is Election Day in the City of Cincinnati and all nine seats on City Council are up for election. In case you forgot, City Council terms are two years, again, so we are back at it again in less than 12 months. What, you are not excited? You don't want to follow along with the fringe candidates that have chance to win, but scream the loudest about what ever odd causes they push?

2021's election established that the Democratic Party has a lot of support in the City and that earned them eight of nine of the seats. Anyone looking to get elected will have to find a way to counter the overwhelming dominance of the Dems. The logical conclusion is that few strong candidates will make a run. There could still be some movement at the lower ranks, including the lone Republican on Council, but with the power of the Democratic Party at this point, no one would be betting against the Dems keep a veto proof majority on council.

With Greg Landsman leaving soon for Washington as the next Congressman for the Ohio First District, another person will fill one of those eight. The process to pick the replacement candidate will be run by Council Member Reggie Harris, with an application for those interested in the appointment on his council webpage, which are due by end of day Sunday 11/27/2022.

At this point little is definitely known about who is actually going to run. It is reasonable that all incumbents will be running, along with who ever is appointed to fill Landsman's seat. WVXU's Becca Costello reported on Twitter that two current members of council have pulled petitions to run for Council, Keating and Owens. Four others also have already pulled petitions to get on the ballot (see below.)

With that in mind, here is a list of the incumbents, those with petitions out, those who have been speculated to be possible appointees, and my list of prior candidates who might run again.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)

Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)

Mark Jeffreys *(D)

Scotty Johnson *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Andrew Kennedy (I?)
Seth Walsh (D)

Boyd Miller (R)

Stephan Pryor (?)

Getting Attention for Appointment to Greg Landsman's Seat
Jamie Castle (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Jackie Frondorf (D,C)
Alyson Steele Beridon (D)
(Also Seth Walsh)

Maybe Will Run Again?

Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
LaKeisha N. Cook (D)

Galen Gordon (C)
Rob Harris (D)
K. Heard (G)
Evan Holt (DSA)
Nick Jabin (I)
John Maher (I)
Phillip O'Neal (D)
Logan-Peter Simmering (G)
John Williams (D)
Robert Adler (I)
Jalen Alford (D)
James K. Jenkins (I?)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Friday, December 31, 2021

The Best and Worst in Cincinnati Politics for 2021

It is time once again to look back over the past year and pick out the highs and lows of Cincinnati politics. 2021 gave a reason to directly deal with Cincinnati Politics that has been missing with the advent of 4 year council terms, something that has thankfully ended.

With that jolly thought in mind, I need to remind the few readers that this listing is a HIGHLY scientific process based on a combination of high level mathematics, caffeine, and the desire to illustrate the good, bleak, and pointlessness of the many varied political undertakings of the past year.

The Best

Democrats Elect Eight to City Council: A new beginning with a good team.
Aftab Wins Mayor's Race by Large Margin: Positive leadership for the City and the region.
Smart Move: Democrats refusing to allow cross party endorsements of candidates. They were attacked for doing this, but it was a wise choice and most importantly, it worked.
Liz Keating Sneaking on Council: Her appointment to City Council in late 2020 was dubious at best, but her tenure on council was as a very moderate candidate, at least in appearances. Getting the Charter endorsement was the kicker that got her enough votes to get the last spot on Council.
Defeating Both Issue 3 Ballot initiatives:

In May during the Primary Election far left wing activists tried a massive power grab for a group of unelected social service leaders and their advocates.
In November everyone saw through Tom Brinkman fronting for an ill conceived Republican Donor backed effort to cripple the city.

The Worst

The Republican Party: Anyone with any amount of experience following politics would be able to identify the set of positive circumstances for Republicans heading into the 2021 election: a) A corruption scandal, expanded by the GOP fishing expedition enabled by a Republican Judge, b) an increase in shootings (though not an overall increase in crime), and c) Three sitting Republicans on council as incumbents. Throw in tons of suburban Republican money and they were poised to win some power on council. They still couldn't field enough candidates for a five person majority, let alone anything close to a full slate of candidates. They ended up with one member elected in the last position. That candidate ran publically as a very moderate candidate that likely connected well with moderate women.. The more conservative candidates lost far more significantly. A complete failure. Any other political party would fire people over this.
Tom Brinkman: The guy is a right wing extremist who is against the the existence of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. He thought somehow he could find a way to waste a ton of money on a fruitless campaign. He didn't even bother creating a website for his council campaign. He knew he was going to lose. He also essentially lost twice. He got his ass kicked in the council race and his Ballot Issue lost big time as well. He wasted a ton of Republican money and that would be a redeeming quality if he did it on purpose, which he did not. He may try to run for something county wide. He may find he won't fair much better, no matter how much GOP money the fat cats are willing to waste on him.
Issue 3 for a $50 Million power grab: This was a terrible ballot issue that appears to have been crafted to either intentionally fail or to force the City to gut the funding of the Police Department. I list those too extremes because it was a horribly written issue that put all of the big issues onto City Council to figure out and then clean up with no direction. I don't know how any honest group could put if forward as it did they thought it was good policy. It also gave unelected left wing activists power with no checks or balances or the ability of the public to have oversight certain portions of unelected board given this power. I person did not vote for anyone who publicly supported the Ballot Issue. What is sad and likely shows the cynical intent of its originators is that a large group of people felt they had to support this because they support creating more affordable house. This Ballot issue was a really bad way to do that.
Supporters of Issue 3: Beyond the badly written ballot issue, there were so many puritanical supporters of this issue who viewed getting it passed as a litmus test. Those who did not have absolute support for the issue were vilified and often ostracized by its most vocal supporters. Hell of a way to run a railroad or social movement....
Independent Progressives: Adding to the Issue 3 fiasco, they lost BIGTIME in the City Council Election. If you are going to run against the Democratic Party, then you better learn to be a unified party with viable candidates that might build up a credible following. Instead, they support 'Socialists' with no viable ways to govern a city. Leftist activists are not good political leaders, they are just attention seekers. Organize a team with common viable goals, not a bunch of crackpots who have a bunch of bad political views that not only are bad policies, they are policies that can't win outside of leftist clubs on college campuses.
Michelle Dillingham's Campaign: A simple rule to follow when you want the endorsement of a political party, don't work against and criticize that same political party. The Democratic Party in Cincinnati had a clear goal for its candidates, unity. Dillingham did not want to be unified with anyone. Her campaign was about being aggressive and working against certain groups. She did not demonstrate that she wanted to work with other who frankly are not far off on policies. Her crusade against SORTA and the bus service was incomprehensible. Sure, it riled up some parents that may have turned into voters, but attacking public transit is not a winning position for any left of center political candidate.
Brian Garry Campaign: From passing out intentionally misleading and dishonest campaign literature at the polls to alienating a campaign manager, Brian Garry demonstrated why he would not be a good member of council or any elected office. I hope this is end of him running again. He needs to move on from politics.
The Charter Committee: They had several solid candidates, but they did not have a wide reaching organization to get support. The de facto political party lacks the infrastructure of the two major parties and it shows. They need to reassess what they are doing and how they approach Cincinnati Elections if they are going to ever have an impact, again.
Anyone Who Believed That City Council Poll: A political 'poll' made the rounds amongst political circles and many people believed it, especially the Enquirer's Jason Williams and perennial Republican candidate Charlie Winburn. I don't know who conducted or paid for the polls, but the one I saw only included four endorsed Democrats in the top nine. Williams looked like a fool when he had a column that included most of this poll's top nine as his prediction. He is not good political analyst and is a hack columnist. The poll was at best a favorability or name recognition survey, not a true poll, something very difficult to do with an at-large nine-seat race. Here's hoping that people who follow politics take more time to understand the evolving electorate, instead of thinking the election of 15 or 20 years ago is the same as today.

Moving on from the Best/Worst, here are couple more tidbits that I either learned this year:

If you think Democrats are going to do this well in Council Elections every year, you are mistaken. They will have an advantage for the next couple elections, but the electorate will change again. I don't see it getting any more Republican, but moderate candidates have a very doable path to get on council next time around.
Price Hill and Westwood are no longer Republican Strongholds in City politics. There are a few pockets, but conservative white flight has continued.

That's all I got. Happy New Year!

Friday, December 10, 2021

2021 Cincinnati City Election Generation Turnout

Democrats won a Mega Majority on City Council this year and nearly as many Boomer's voted than GenXers and Millennials combined.

I just don't know what to say about this. The classic notion is if you don't participate, then you have zero credibility if you complain. I will be sure to find a way to point that out to annoying young leftists on Twitter that bug me.

For comparison here is the turnout in 2020 for the same set of registered voters from 2021.

A comparison of the two looks like this:

The younger generations are refusing to participate in elections in remotely similar ratios to older generations. This is not a new occurrence, but I would speculate the Millennials are staying uninvolved longer than prior generations. We in GenX are nothing to crow about either, just to be fair.

What truly I don't get: Why bother to registered to vote if you are not going to vote? There are Tens of Thousands of people who don't bother to vote, but for some reason felt the need to register to vote.

Wednesday, November 03, 2021

What was Turnout Like in the 2021 City of Cincinnati Elections?

The simple truth about the 2021 City of Cincinnati Election turnout is that it was historically low. There is no question that a large majority of registered voters did not want to vote in this election. Why it is low is not easy to answer with out more data. People will make lots of claims about why, but they will be either anecdotal or speculation. What I have below are some statistics based on turnout data from the BOE's live turnout tracker. I have created these based on two data points that are derived on other data I have compiled.

The first data point is on the race demographics of each precinct. I used the 2020 census data that provided population by race within each precinct. I made a determination of which race was a clear majority of each precinct. Where there was not a clear majority or the numbers were close, I considered that precinct a mix.

The second data point is neighborhood. I have assigned a single neighborhood identification to each precinct. This assignment is very much an approximation. Four neighborhoods are not represented as I determined they are a minority portion of another precinct. This was done by reviewing varied maps provided by the City and by the County's CAGIS map software. These assignments could certainly be debated and if someone sees an error, please let me know.

The first chart I have looks at turnout grouped by the majority race of each precinct for 2021 compared to the turnout of 2017. Please note the numbers listed are NOT a total of people who are of a particular race. The numbers are the registered voters and those who voted in precincts that have a majority of a particular race. I am sure most people get this, but unfortunately some people don't like to read the details and will just point to parts of labels and extrapolate bad data. I hope that does not happen.

The biggest take away I see here is that the reduction in turnout compared to 2017 was overall fairly equivalent through these segments. There is a larger decrease in turnout in black majority precincts, than white majority precincts, but oddly enough the mixed precincts changed nearly the same as white majority precincts. There could have been an effect on the election if the turnout was more closely aligned, but at best that could have affected the ninth spot in the race. The lower turnout in black majority precincts is in line with the 2020 election where each of the segments had turnout of 56.35%, 57.64%, and 68.81% respectively, so there are no factors that would be variant with other recent elections.

The next chart dives into a comparison of the neighborhood and ward turnouts. I included a comparison to 2017 turnout rates and a vote total retention number as well. As I stated before, these neighborhoods are approximate and they are broken out by ward, as several neighborhoods are split between more than one ward. In this detail you can see many neighborhoods and wards did not drop in turnout, as compared to 2017, as much as others. It's difficult to see big patterns, but you can see that certain neighborhoods had a bigger impact on the election. Hyde Park is regularly an important neighborhood for elections and this year that continued. I will be examining the success of each candidate in the neighborhoods as I compile more data from yesterday's election.

Tuesday, November 02, 2021

Where are the Election Night Parties?

It have been four long years since a local election in Cincinnati and the best part of any election is celebrating with the winners and commiserating with the losers at election night parties.

Here is the list of announced parties I have found:

Aftab Pureval - Lucious Q in Pendleton
Jeff Cramerding - Taste of Belgium at the Banks
Charter Committee - Esoteric Brewing in Walnut Hills
Jackie Frondorf - West Side Brewing in Westwood

I'll add more as I they are made public.

Monday, November 01, 2021

Historical Data from Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017

Historical data from the Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017.

The turnout has been at extremely low levels in 2013 and 2017. The 2017 number is somewhat misleading with the increase in registered voters coming from the 2016 Presidential Election. We see a turnout in direct numbers increasing by 7.4% from 2013 to 2017.

Early reports from BOE indicates that turnout will be in the 30% to 35% range for the county. That likely puts it on the lower end of that for the City, so it would be in line with recent elections. One known point, the number of registered voters in 2021 is about 216,186, so less than 2017, but fairly comparable.

The most interesting facts:

The average number of votes cast per ballot have historically been relatively consistent around 6.
The top winning nine candidates have received at least 57% of all votes.

Friday, October 29, 2021

2021 Cincinnati City Council Election Non-Prediction Predictions

I have no definitive knowledge of who will be the top nine vote getters on November 2nd. I have no polling data. I not aware of any polls having been conducted on the council race. In conclusion, no one knows who is going to win and if you clicked on this article in the hopes of knowing that, well you are a fool. (Kidding, on the square)

That being said...I've done some analysis. I compiled lots of data. I've got the results of 2017 council and mayoral election. I have the 2020 election results. I have the 2020 census data compiled by voting precinct. I have a ton of information about the 35 candidates on the ballot. I've reviewed all of that I have some thoughts on who likely will get elected to the Cincinnati City Council.

Before I get to that, I want to outline the core elements of the Cincinnati electorate, from perspective. I also will describe some of the key variables that will determine the winners and what are likely scenarios for who gets on council.

Cincinnati Voting Blocks
First off, what are the voting blocks in Cincinnati? Oh, what do I mean by a voting block, you ask? Well, I define a voting block as a group or classification of voters that have common characteristics that provide a referential means to identify political philosophy, Party, race, identity, or other views that would indicate how they would vote. This is absolutely a generalization about people. Without polling data that includes self assigned characteristics, there is no other way than to generalize. I am trying to do that based on the data I have, the voting history of the City by precinct, and my experience in covering/observing Cincinnati elections.

These groups are not monolithic. In a council race, some Republicans can and will vote for a Democrat and some Democrats will vote for a Republican. For parties with more options, that is less common than parties with a short ticket. All in all this is kind of messy, but there is a means to judge who each group will support.

What that leaves are the following general voting blocks of voters.

Black Democrats - They will support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support black candidates more than white candidates? Yes, some.
White Democrats - They will also support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support white candidates more than black candidates? Yes, some.
Moderates - To poorly use a Ghostbusters reference: this group likes to cross the streams. They will support some Democrats, some in Charter, some Republicans, and even Independents. They tend to support those who are bit more supportive of business and the police, but don’t like the extremes.
Republicans - I've segmented out the Trumpists from this block as a significant number of Republicans in the City did not vote for Trump. The lines between some in this group and the Trumpists are blurry on most policy.
Trumpists - This is a new block that is not large, but I've made distinct from Republicans because of what I see a degree of a split in the Republican Party, but also because of their voting variation. These are the hard right Republicans.
Black Conservatives - For much of the 21st Century I would call this the Winburn/Smitherman vote. They are going to support some Democrats and Charterites too.
Progressives - This group has two components: Those to the left in the Democratic Parry and Leftists outside the Democratic Party. This group will vote for some Democrats and progressive Independents.

I assign no totals to these blocks, but on some levels they can be derived. There are way more Democrats in the City of Cincinnati than Republicans. There are not as many Progressives than some Progressives think there are. Most candidates need support in more than one of these blocks to break into the top nine. Sometimes they need three blocks to win. It all depends on who votes.

Variables
So many things can change an election. There can be one thing and there can be many things. They can be conflicting and cancel each other out. Some of them can be appear to be insignificant, but can make or break a candidates. Some of these variables happen on election day and some are part of the campaign. These are not all of the possible variables, but they are what I think we can observe and evaluate.

Overall Turnout - Candidates generally can't do much about this. This relies on three things: 1) how easy it is to vote, 2) how well the Parties or other significant GOTV efforts worked, and 3) the weather.
Voting Block Turnout - This is something candidates can have an impact on. Consider this getting our your base, but in this type of an at large election other attributes can help. Issues and topics can drive out one block and keep another at home. If there are blocks tied to certain neighborhoods or parts of the City, those groups could see a serge in turnout if something that year matters.
Party Endorsement - This year may be a test for this idea, but getting a major party endorsement has nearly been a requirement to get elected to Cincinnati City Council The value of the endorsement has structural advantages to the campaign in terms of resources, but this is as good as any signal for a majority of voters to understand a candidate's political views and their seriousness.
Name Recognition - Incumbency is one version, being a prior elected official is another. Being well known helps as well. Having a well known last name does not hurt either.
Fund Raising- Money matters.
Campaign Communications - This has several parts, but the core types are mailers, TV/radio ads, web ads, phone banking, and personal canvassing. These largely rely on fundraising, but the messages used are also very important. Negative campaigning is not very effective for one candidate to attack another. This hasn’t been seen so far in the council race. Getting outside groups to do it, that is more common, but how effective it is not a proven concept.
Positions on policy or political philosophy - This can matter in some elections, but in reality, not as much as people think. Just because a candidate is for or against an policy is not enough, if that they can effectively communicate those ideas, they will get no where.

These variables at this point are mostly played out. You can get some turnout changes at this point, but most of the rest of these have occurred.

Turnout
The only measurement of Turnout we can see is with early and absentee voting. As of the end of last week, turnout is up significantly in comparison to turnout in 2017 at the last City Election. With COVID-19's impact on early/absentee voting, this increase may be far less of a indication of higher turnout and instead part of the shift of votes that would have been cast on Election Day in person. In comparison to the terrible turnout in 2017, I would predict that 2021 will exceed the 29% by a few percentage points at least. Not all of the increase is COVID related.

Scenarios
Who is going to have power on council? That is the question that really matters. That is also a question that could change depending on who gets electected. Party affiliation is not a guarantee of unity. Here are the likely possible combinations of who gets power.

Democrats in Strong Control with 6 or 7 seats, 2-3 seats split between GOP/Charter - This would be considered a conventional wisdom outcome. Many see this as the likely situation (some may call it inevitable.) A related version of this scenario would have 1 of GOP/Charter group go to an Independent Progressive Candidate. This is an example where the variable voting block turnout would come into play on the election.
Democrats in Control with 5 seats - here you could see Dems with control, but the other 4 seats in all sort of combinations. Turnout would drive the power of the rest, a surge for the GOP/Charter or a mix in of Charter/Independents could fill in numbers. Dems would control and on many issue would have as much power as a 6 or 7 seat majority since most of the Charter or Independent candidates are Democrats.
Charter/GOP in Control - This is the hope of the GOP. They would need to get at least three to make this happen, and hope pro-business Charterites want to work together.
No Dominant Party in Control - This split could be amongst the three parties. This could also be a mix of non-party endorsed. This is also not that likely, but many candidates and their follows love to dream about it.

Candidate Groupings
I don’t know who is going to win, but I believe I have grouped together all of the candidates into a group that represents my opinion on their chances to win the 2021 City Council Election. I don’t know vote counts, so I really can’t rank the order of finish. With the number of candidates and a lower than normal sense of incumbency, the spread of votes could be tighter, making the race closer to get into the top nine.

Likely to Win-They should win.

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney
Greg Landsman

Strong Chance - The other 7 slots should come from this group, but it is not guaranteed.

Jeff Cramerding
Kevin Flynn
Steve Goodin
Reggie Harris
Mark Jeffreys

Scotty Johnson
Liz Keating
Meeka Owens
Victoria Parks
Jim Tarbell

Possible - Depending turnout and the mood of the voter, someone in this group could win, but likely no more than one or two could slip into the top 9 and bump 1 or 2 of those with a strong chance out. Some of those in this group could also fall even lower.

Michelle Dillingham
Jackie Frondorf
Galen G. Gordon
Phillip O'Neal
Betsy Sundermann
John Williams
Tom Brinkman
Jamie Castle
Bill Frost
Brian Garry
Kurt Grossman
Evan C. Holt

Not Going to Win - The hurdles are just too high to overcome the groups above.

Jalen Alford
LaKeisha Cook
Rob Harris
K. A. Heard
Nick Jabin
Andrew Kennedy
John Maher
Peterson W. Mingo
TeAirea R. Powell
Logan-Peter Simmering
Stacey Smith

I look forward to following turnout during the day on Election Day and will be on Twitter @cincyblog on election night.

Sunday, June 27, 2021

Will Cincinnati Republicans Endorse for Cincinnati Council?

It is the end of June and local Republicans still appear to be living in a Trumpist haze. The HamCoGOP Twitter account is a step away from spouting Qanon dogma or MyPillow religious proclamations. Alex Triantafilou, Chairperson of the Hamilton County Republican Party, has long wanted to mount a take over of the City. The rest of his party leadership prefers to take actions that hurt the City of Cincinnati and see its demise. None of them seem to be doing much to support enough candidates to actually to do much on council.

For the the last few years their efforts have, not surprisingly, been to undemocratically seize control of City Council through the courts. This effort to use the courts by Republican hack lawyers to sue their way back onto council came to halt recently when a commission appointed by the Ohio Supreme Court refused to Suspend Wendell Young. They were able to swing one additional council for a Republican, but couldn't get another one.

That failure appears to have taken the wind out of the sails of the Republicans. They were running a campaign against "corruption" which Republicans have done far more in the state than any Democrat could ever do (see Larry Householder.) None-the-less their presumptive candidates and allies have pushed charter amendments and are pushing more to tie the hands of any elected council member who is not rich or a practicing lawyer from being able to serve. Call it yet another anti-democracy effort by Republicans to limit the rights of the masses and empower the Republicans.

All of this still leaves a Cincinnati City Council election ahead and time is running out. At this point there are only three candidates the GOP likely will endorse, Sundermann, Keating, and Goodin. None of them have been elected before, but are serving as council members. That means they are vulnerable. We've not had a city election since 2017 and Democrats elected six members to Council. The City has become more Democratic since then. The manufactured scandals are the only thing working in the Republicans favor and unless they get more candidates, they are not going to have a governing majority to make it worth anything.

The Charter Committee stands to have more influence on City Council than the Republican Party after this election. Two Charter endorsees, Goodin and Keating, are Republicans and presumed to get cross endorsements. Their tenure so far has been very much as Charter Republicans, which would be considered a Moderate Republican. Moderates in the GOP are an endangered species. On the other hand, Sundermann has acted like a typical Conservative and even though she's not pushed the envelope of right wing nuttiness that has taken over her party. She tows the GOP line, but has kept the Trump worship under wraps.

I would propose the best thing the Republicans could do for Goodin and Keating would be to refuse to endorse them for Council and only endorse Sundermann. That would give them attention and make them independent from the GOP and allow them to be Charterites. At the same time, both would have no problem getting the 4th Street business community to donate to them, which in the City is the ONLY reason a candidate would want the Republican endorsement.

There is still time for other candidates to get in the race and there are other candidates who have taken out petitions and declared themselves as candidates who are Republicans. Those out there now, like Linda Matthews don't have much of a campaign going and at this point that means they are not raising any money to hire staff. That means they are not viable and likely not going to get an endorsement, unless the GOP wants to try and save face.

There are a few names that could get in the race at this late point, but they are smart enough to know that the GOP brand in the City is about as damaged as it could be and this year it is not going to get any better. There is not much money up for grabs from the Suburbs to change the city. The Hamilton County Suburbs are not as fertile ground as they were for the GOP. The exurbs outside the County are where they have to go and the Exurban GOP donor appears to be stuck in Trumpism. A good Trumpist wants cities to be destroyed, so that leads them into a bit of conundrum.

I would expect something from Republicans in the form of an endorsement slate soon, so the candidates can get some fundraiser mailings out to GOP lists. The GOP announcement then gives the Cincinnati FOP the ability to endorse, as they don't make endorsements without knowing who the GOP is pushing. These groups work together on City Politics 98% of the time. The rest of the GOP leaning groups will following along too, but there may be less this year, as they all are so far down the Trump rabbit hole that if you are not 100% loyal to Trump, you can't be a Republican. I hope they keep this idea going. Purity is the downfall of a political effort and the Republican Party needs to go the way of the Dodo.

Monday, June 21, 2021

June Cincinnati City Council Candidate Update

The Cincinnati City Council election race is starting to make noise. Some of that noise is a personification of the X-Brood (Cicadas.) There are 90 people who on paper at least are still in the race, but just over half of those appear to be like an empty carcass. By my count there are 43 campaigns still with an indication of life.

The Charter Committee and the Democratic Party have issued their endorsements. The manufactured drama the process has spawned has been mostly a waste of time. Conservatives/Moderates baulked over the idea of the Dems determining they would not cross endorse candidates. The hot air created on that front would have been useful if a large balloon was available. The nerve of Democrats wanting to run an organized campaign that will try to win as many seats for their party. Who would want to do such a thing?

As for the so called 'Progressives' in(and circling outside) the Democratic Party, the angst was thick like a beef stew that none of them would eat. They publicly complained about the process, the first sign that they don't want the Democratic Party to win a majority of seats on council, instead they want their 'faction' to gain power in the local party. It is almost like none of them pay attention to actual politics and instead just read columns from Huff Post, Nation, and the Intercept. There are far too many so called 'Progressives' who seem to want to wage a war of purity instead of winning elections. If you are not in 100% agreement with their policy issue of the day, they will seek to destroy you and run you out of town on a Twitter rail. Losing the Issue 3 election appears to have not provided them with a wake up call to reality. We don't live in New York's 14th district. Most of the world is not like the NY-14 and most certainly most of Cincinnati is not like it. Those who didn't learn back in May will learn it in November.

As for the Republicans, they are/were either working on some big plan or their party is in far more internal turmoil locally than I thought. I guess when the national leader of your party orchestrates an Insurrection, you can't get yourself as motivated as your should. It is almost the end of June and they have not announced their endorsements yet. That is not a good sign. I've listed people below with the Republican "R" after their name, but that is the affiliation from their voter registration, nothing more. I can only speculate that the Party's plan was to get Wendell Young suspended from council and have faithful Ted Winkler appoint another loyal Republican to council. That effort appears to have fallen flat on its face. I guess that fizzled like attempted fascist coup on January 6th.

Other than the three Republicans currently serving on council there are not any candidates with a campaign in motion. There are a few placeholders with Facebook pages, but for a Republican, they need to be credible and raising money. Credibility for a Republican is not from an amature hour Facebook page with a link to a donation page. The GOP can't field a true fire breather for office in the City. Sundermann is as close as they can get, it would appear, and she is by far the most vulnerable sitting member of council. There just may not be anyone else willing to run without the perception of incumbency. None of the three were elected to office, so calling them an incumbent requires a set of rosey glasses. That leaves the Republicans in the same place they have been most of the City elections this Century, a minority party. Hell, it is possible that they are the third party or not have anyone on council at all. Their last hurrah in the city could have been a feeble attempt to abuse power by appointing their way to a majority. That fits the GOP motif.

For the Council Candidate Update, I should have more groups listed with their endorsements. I also plan to start arranging candidates into tiers. Each tier would indicate my opinion on their chances. There will be no polling data for me to use. I'll just be looking at various factors to judge their candidacy and campaign and viability. This will lean towards art over science, but won't be void of history or logic. I am sure I'll piss off someone, but that is not new.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman * (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Betsy Sundermann * (R)

Temporary Replacements to Council
Steve Goodin (R,C)
Liz Keating (R,C)

Announced Candidates
Robert Adler (I)
Jalen Alford (D)
Key Beck (I)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Jamie Castle (D)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Kevin Flynn (I)
Jackie Frondorf (C)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Galen Gordon (C)
Terence Gragston (I)
Kurt Grossman (D)
Cam Hardy (C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Rob Harris (D)
K. Heard (G)
Chris Hikel (I)
Evan Holt (DSA)
Nick Jabin (I)
Mark Jeffreys (D)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Andrew Kennedy (I)
Rayshon Mack (R)
John Maher (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Natasha Mitchell (R)
J. Nickels (I)
Phillip O'Neal (D)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Logan-Peter Simmering (G)
Stacey Smith (D)
James Tarbell (C)
Dadrien Washington (I)
John Williams (D)

Inactive Announced Candidates
Britton Carter (D)
Gary Favors (R)
Nora Hartsock (I)
Dale Mallory (D)
Nicole McWhorter (D)
Victor Phillips (I)
Gregory Schill (R)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Individuals Who Have Taken Out Petitions to Run, but Appear to Be Inactive
Bilal Ahmad (I)
William Andrews (I)
Aaryn Barnes (I)
David Booker (I)
Melinda Brown (I)
Darius Clay (I)
John Clifton (I)
Ali Coulibaly (I)
Zacheriah Davis (I)
Sean Fausto (R)
Robert Foster (I)
Randy Freking (I)
Martha Good (I)
Brent Gray (I)
Michael Haithcoat (R)
Bem Itiavkase (I)
Aprina Johnson (I)
Eric Knapp (I)
Joe McCloud (I)
Deborah Metz (I)
Robert Moore (I)
William Moore (I)
Jim Neil (I)
TeAirea Powell (I)
Thomas Price (R)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Isaiah Robinson (I)
Morleen Rouse (I)
Martin Rutland (I)
Antonio Sanders (I)
Larry Showes (I)
Demetrius Stanton (I)
Andrew Sweeny (R)
Edith Thrower (R)
David Walker (I)
Damon Watkins (I)
Laura Ann Weaver (D)
Brandie Woods (I)
Nathaniyah Yisrael (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always: If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.