Cincinnati City Council Election February 2025 Update

Big News in the Cincinnati City Council 2025 Election: Council Member Victoria Parks announced in January that she will not be seeking reelection to City Council.  That provides a very small shake up to the race. I will repeat: a very SMALL shake up.  At this point there are no indications that the domination from Democrats will face any serious challenge.  Candidates that are serious are raising money NOW. I have identified nine candidates raising money via Actblue, a fundraising application that caters to Democratic candidates. Those candidates are serious.  They are taking the needed steps to get support from the Democratic Party. The party has stated they will hold a meeting in May to vote on the recommendation of the nomination committee.  That leaves little time to demonstrate to committee members that you are a serious candidate. Time is running out for anyone else who has taken out petitions to run and is not raising money.

Getting the Democratic Party endorsement is best way to win. Getting a Democratic Party nomination may be the only way to win in Cincinnati.

The Charter Committee, long considered Cincinnati's third political party, has done a press relations offensive to demonstrate they still exist.  At this point they are being lead by Steve Goodin, a Republican, and their agenda seems to be a NIMBY push to win friends (donors) amongst the rich in Hyde Park.  They have moved their office to the Towne Properties HQ in Mt. Adams.  That makes it clear, at least to me, that the Charter Committee is under the control of Republicans. The Bortz family, long time Charter Committee supporters, are known as Republicans.  At this point, if you are a Republican that has not divorced themselves from Trump, publicly, then you are complicit with the Trump Regime.  Goodin last ran for County wide office and pushed a negative campaign designed to tap into hardcore conservatives. He lost. At best this effort is one that is designed to keep the Charter Party relevant and allow it to try to push Charter Amendments to the ballot that are designed to help Republicans claw back power in the City.  Being NIMBY is the trend that Republicans in Cities have been using in other places.  Trying to exploit the fears of home owners is a trite Republican tactic. It is not surprising for Republicans like Goodin to use fear as a wedge. Goodin seems happy with Trump in office, so fear seems like his play and laying on the Charter cloak is how he wants to build up a powerbase. He won't get anyone elected without big name recognition, money, and campaign activity. This effort can therefore be read as a way to build a new conservative power in the City, hiding the Republican Party smell. I think this will be a failure, but the local media will give them all the free press they want and will continue to push any negative story about Democratic candidates and the party.

The Republican Party is now a fascist party lead by Trump and those following him.  The Republican Party is attempting to destroy Cities.  That is not hyperbole.  That has been going on for the better part of two decades. There will not be any serious candidates running for City Council this year.  There are two unserious Republican Mayoral candidates that have one two purposes: 1) gain attention for the candidate to be better known as a way to gain influence and money in Conservative media and 2) Give the Republicans another channel to attack a City. This manufactured PR effort already has gained the attention of local journalists who want to increase their suburban (non-city) audience. All this will amount to no Republicans getting elected this election.

Left wing political groups will likely whine a bit, but their usual failures will keep them from doing anything beyond getting social media attention solely withing left wing circles.

This leaves us with a campaign that has some movement, but appears to be forming a clear path forward with nine Dems who would likely get endorsed. I expect this to be boring campaign, if you just ignore the Republicans and Leftists making pointless noise.  I am not going to give oxygen to pointless, so do not expect another update without something to report on the candidates.

Incumbant Candidates

Anna Albi (D)*
Jeff Cramerding (D)*
Mark Jeffreys (D)*
Scotty Johnson (D)*
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*
Evan Nolan (D)*
Meeka Owens (D)*
Seth Walsh (D)*

Announced Candidates

Sol Kersey (D)

Taken Out Peititions to Run

Audricia Brooks (D)
Laketa Cole (D)
Jerry Corbett (I)
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Ozie Davis III (D)
Ryan James (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
William Moore (I)
Brandon Nixon (I)
Michael Patton (R)
Raffel Prophett (I)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Bart Rosenberg (D)
Gwen Summers (I)

Sharetha Collier (I) is also listed as having taken out petitions, but the address listed is in Woodlawn, outside of the City Limits. Additionally the person who has been registered to vote with the same name/address is no longer listed under that name on Hamilton County's voter registration list I have as of last month. I will monitor the lists to see if anything changes.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election January 2025 Update

Welcome to Cincinnati City Council Election Year 2025! We are 295 days away from the November election and there is some surprising news: We have a significant number of people who have taken out petitions to run for council. The BOE's website snuck this list in on Friday and it very much may not be a complete list, as three rows with blank names were included on the file and three incumbents were not listed as having taken out petitions to run yet.

Most of the names that are non-incumbents on the list of petition takers are new to me, so I don't know anything about them or their political leanings. There is one well known name included is Laketa Cole, a former member of City Council. This is a surprise because she had a very recent criminal conviction within the last few years. She has name recognition, but not all of that is good and she's been out of office since 2010 when she resigned for a state job. She did not last at State and was returned to City Employment by John Cranley. I would not expect a Party Endorsement, but there are Democrats who want a mess.  The problem is that Cole has been aligned with the Cranley crowd, far more moderate than progressive wing of the party that likes to attack the Democratic Party from within almost as much as Republicans like to do from the outside.  I can see yet another nasty endorsement process.  There is no good reason that process is made public.

Yes, we also have a Mayoral election this year as well. At this point there are six people who have taken out petitions for the May Primary, including current Mayor Aftab Pureval. If less than three people appear on the primary ballot, there won't be a primary election for Mayor. None of the other names are anyone I recognize and don't have any presence online. Unless those who have pulled petitions are doing so hide another candidate, then Aftab won't face any significant challengers. Republican Chris Smitherman seemed to cherish being appointed Vice-Mayor by John Cranley, so it would not surprise me that if there is a candidate that is trying to sneak around behind the scenes in desperation

Incumbant Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*
Victoria Parks (D)*
Jeff Cramerding (D)*
Mark Jeffreys (D)*
Scotty Johnson (D)*
Seth Walsh (D)*
Anna Albi (D)*
Evan Nolan (D)*(Appointed in 2024)

Possible Candidates 

Audricia Brooks (I)
Gwen Summers (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Laketa Cole (D)
Stephan Pryor (I)
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Brandon Nixon (I)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Barton Rosenberg (I)

Sharetha Collier (I) is also listed as having taken out petitions, but the address listed is in Woodlawn, outside of the City Limits. Additionally the person who has been registered to vote with the same name/address is no longer listed under that name on Hamilton County's voter registration list I have as of last month. I will monitor the lists to see if anything changes.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Happy Election Year 2025, Cincinnati!

 Just when you want to forget about elections and politics, 2025 has arrived and for Cincinnati that means City Council and Mayoral Elections are this fall. Yes, I can see the joy in your face.  The glee of a local election is like a melted plastic spatula stuck to the burner on the stove:  You can't undue your failure, just fix your mistakes.

The mistakes with local elections in Cincinnati at this point are those who don't vote. Yes, the knee jerk reaction of many who pretend to follow politics is to opine about those in power.  Whenever I hear people complain about those in power in a Democratic City, I can put them in one of two camps: 1) They are a Republican/Conservative whining about not being in power or 2) They are a leftist who wants power and can't come to grips with the fact that their extremist views are not popular.

What sucks about local politics is that most of the people paying attention are extremists or cranks.  Yeah, you could call me a crank, but I am more of the nerdish observer that is content with a main stream Democratic Majority is not against Business Groups, but wants to have reasonable regulations and checks on them.

When local elections come around we tend to get lots of idiots out there.  You know you are.  Various fringe groups, special interests, and Right Wing assholes that are looking to get attention.  In 2025 getting attention for a local election is very difficult.  The public is extra ignorant these days.  People under 40 will barely vote.  What is sad is that those who actually turned out just a a couple months ago will not bother to vote again for years.  I blame them for there idiocy. 

Left leading groups want to blame Republicans for why they don't vote.  Sure, there are efforts to make it more difficult to vote from Republicans.  Yes, these efforts disproportionally affect the poor and racial minorities. That is not an excuse for people who can, but don't vote.  The problem is with adults who don't vote.  Yeah, adults, everyone who is old enough to vote is an adult.  They are charged with being responsible for themselves, but they can't bother to vote. So 18-55 years old would be the age range with shitty voter turnout. People have been worried about alienating the younger voters.  Well, they alienated themselves.  It is time to just call them out as lazy fucking morons. 

IF you can't get off your ass to vote one time a year, then I am will happily call you a lazy fuck.  Yes, the lowest common denominator type defense is the first reaction that I get, but that is just as lazy.  I am not talking about the exceptions. I am talking about the dumb fucks who spend their free time playing video games and smoking weed.  Maybe they watch tik tok or some asshole video from YouTube, but that is such a bullshit way to live.

These ignorant fucks just whine that they can do nothing to change things.  The problem: these fucks don't know what needs to be changed.  They are passive shits who are feed crap and think they are making choices.  They are just sheep. IT is not a surprise that an increasing number of younger men have become so intellectually lazy that they fall for sexist fascism Trumpists preach.

The only ones make an attempt to be activists are those with extremist views.  They are making an effort, but are have their own problems with reality.  They live in a mythical world that thinks purity is best and protest without achievable goal. They make noise and do little else. When you fail to achieve anything, other than pissing off people who could help your cause, you have no credibility.  For Activists, getting attention is more important than achieving goals.

Whilst my rant continues: I must also point out those who are knee jerk against those in office.  They don't have a consistent sense of ideology, but think they do when they want to remove other from power. No sense of what that will bring (See Trump), but they think change will be better.  The problem is just more ignorance.  They can't articulate what needs to change, just that change needs to happen.  This mindset hits into populists more than leftists. When they know they can't change, they don't bother to participant and point fingers at others or the system, anything but their own ignorance.

Do not forget that the Republicans and Trumpists will do something this year to hurt the city, it is their way.  COASTers or the like will make trouble and get suburban funding to make it happen. They could claim a "legitimate" effort in City politics if they get Chris Smitherman to run for mayor.  Based on my observation of Smitherman over the last 20+ years in local politics, it is obvious that his dream is to be Mayor of Cincinnati.  He has no realistic chance to win. He has pretended for most of last 20+ years to NOT be a Republican.  This past year he sloppily danced around direct support for Trump, something he has avoided.  He is surrounded by hardcore Trumpists as his core potential campaign leadership. I do not recall seeing him directly endorse Trump, but he pushed fringe issues championed by Trump and Vance. Before I left Twitter you could interpret his tweets as a bad RFKjr imitation.  I think Smitherman is unhinged and delusional. As the Republican Party's sane wing has drunk the Kool Aide or gone on an ethics holiday, they could see it as a wise play to try and demonize the City with Smitherman as their voice and a ploy to gain more black votes for County elections. Exploiting black men is not new for Republicans, but what kind of man allows himself to be exploited?

Yes, happy election year, Cincinnati! This will be a clusterfuck. People will bitch about the lack of candidates that they "like."  When people do that, they likely don't have a clue about the candidates.  They don't know about any of the issues facing the city and are not going to make any efforts to find out. Unless outside group put shitty Charter Amendments on the ballot, no issues will be discussed.  We can't have discussions on issue because any issues to be discussed will be usurped into a national debate that has little or just no relevance to the actual issue.  Groups will form and demonize others who disagree with them on the issue.  There will be no room for compromise.

The best thing you can do, is to ignore the assholes who are pushing you to join their cause. 98% of them are full of shit and lying about some part of their "cause." I observed this from the Rail Road sale. A bipartisan coalition of asses opposed the sale based on lies. It was sad to see people do this and join forces with extremists. Right Wing extremists and Left Wing Extremists mixed with some who in the past were not extremists and those non-extremists lost a lot of credibility. They burned so many bridges that I don't see how they get back into politics, locally. I don't suppose it matters anyway, least of all toe them.

I expect this year's election to end up two ways: 1) Democratic candidates win a fairly quiet and easy reelection or 2) Democratic candidates win a nasty election, maybe one or two less council members, but maintain their vast control of the City.

The only question at hand: Will the Republican Party OR the Charter Committee actually field any candidates for the general election? I will not be surprised if we don't see them publicly endorse any candidates. When they complain about the lack of choice, they get all of blame for that.

Cincinnati City Council Election October 2023 Update

The election is two weeks away and for City Council, we have no change. We are still going to have 8 Democrats on City Council. The largest majority for a single party in many decades. The right wing is seething over this and leftists are angry about not getting their way with a tiny number of supporters. There is a real race for the last two spots. I personally can see three ways for it turn out:

1. Liz Keating gets a bigger boost from incumbency and short ticket Republican voting and edges higher (6th or 7th place), pushing the last spot to an Albi-Walsh race.

2. Democratic turnout surges and the power of the slate is bigger with Issue 1 increasing turnout into the upper 30s percentage range and leaves Keating on the outside.

3. A three person race ensures; with Keating, Albi, and Walsh in a very close race that goes late into the night or even relies on provisional ballots to decide.

As usual, the flop on election night is what is the most interesting predictor. The flop, as I consider it, is the initial report the Hamilton County BOE makes on election night that reports the Early and Absentee vote totals.  This occurs fairly early in the evening, sometimes even before 8 PM.  With early voting a significant share from across the city, the initial results are unlikely to change if the variances between candidates are large enough. This year, that will be the tell for Keating.  If she is anywhere other than 10th place, she has a good shot.  If she is in 10th place, then she needs to be VERY close to the 9th place candidate.  As Republicans are generally not voting early in as large of numbers as Dems, she would stand to get a better surge of votes, especially with a spike of short ticket voting, from the election day votes.  With fewer Republicans in the City, that may not be enough.  Especially, since her two primary competitors, Albi and Walsh, would more than likely NOT be candidates a moderate or conservative voter would consider including on their ballot.

Issue 22 is not easily predictable.  The Support of the Democratic party and the silence from the Republican party make for a favorable outlook for passage, but it depends on turnout and if people vote down the ballot on most things.

Issue 23 should win with ease.  It is a reasonable measure that creates some improvements to the election process and operation of the City Council.

Issue 24 will very likely fail. No one wants to vote for a income tax increase. Add to that the issue is just another leftist scheme to force policy to the city without vetting the details of the plan and creating something that would intentionally tie the hands of future city councils is not a good idea.

Statewide Issues and 1 and 2 have one poll showing both with decent support.  Polling is not something to put much faith into, especially a single poll, but this poll is consistent with prior polling on the abortion issue generally in Ohio. There is no reason to expect a big drop in support for Issue 1, especially if turnout matches the August special election.

I am annoyed with the extreme level of propaganda from people against Issue 22. They have limited financial support, but the talking points that are being used by the anti-22 team online is either massively misleading or it is so generalized that it has no meaning. I am very disappointed with some individuals that have signed on with the Smitherman/COAST cabal leading the anti-22 efforts.  They have what I can best consider an emotional attachment to keeping the rail road and not a logical or analytical reasoning for their position. Fear that they can't control it seems more of their concern than the better financial position the city will obtain with the sale.

There have been few other outside groups with significant endorsements widely reported this year.  I can find no FOP endorsements and WVXU reports Liz Keating got a Charter endorsement, but other than a Xitter post about a fundraiser for Keating, I didn't find much on their support. I hear many complaints from Republicans and others about not having other candidates with diverse ideas to chose from, but Republicans and Charter have the means to support additional candidate to run, but they can't find any who are credible.  That is NOT the Dems fault, that is the fault of Republican and Charter organizations.  They need better leadership and real organization. You can't phone it in or be known as a party of extremists.  Maybe in 2025 they will find some candidates. I don't expect much.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent

Cincinnati City Council Election September 2023 Update

Tumble weeds are traveling across the pollical landscape in the 2023 Cincinnati City Council race. There is nearly no campaigning going on. With only ten candidates that is not a surprise. Audricia Brooks did not, after final review by the Hamilton County Board of Elections, have enough signatures on her petitions. That leaves only endorsed candidates running, with only one non incumbent. The race is down to two questions:

1. Will Liz Keating get a support boost and finish higher and safer in the race, or will she be back competing for last place again like she did in 2021.
2. Will Albi or Walsh fair better than any of the seven previously elected candidates?

At this point, I would say with the expected high turnout amongst Democrats in November for the various ballot issues, I see Liz Keating's prospects of pushing higher up the rankings to be low.  That means to me the only action will be for the last two spots among Keating, Wasl, or Albi.  Those three need to campaigning.  Keating has a funding advantage and if she targets Republicans and Moderates, she might have enough to defeat the Democratic Party Lists.

With no big change possible on City Council, this means that only about a couple dozen people will be paying much attention to the council race.  The other ballot issues will take all of the media attention, so other then election night, I don't think much more will be published, unless a candidate tries to gain attention by creating controversy.

There is nothing wrong with a quiet election.  I think it is actually quite refreshing. There is a chance that these ten candidates could wage a full on retail election, with direct door to door or event connection.

The City, County and State ballot issues will be drawing the attention and generating the turnout, so the political parties will be spending there and not on the City Council race.  I fully expect all statewide issues to be nasty campaigns. The religious right is not against lying and cheating, so I expect we shall see a lot of that. I dread the lies, but that is politics now, especially those out to influence the ignorant. The electorate is made up of so much ignorance that it can be far too exploited.  It is what will doom Democracy.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election August 2023 Update

There are 11 candidates for the 2023 Cincinnati City Council election. The August 24th deadline to turn in petitions came and went this week and no additional candidates turned any in.  That is the smallest number of candidates in decades, at least since 1989 and likely longer ago. There are nine Democrats, one Republican, and one Independent candidate running. Charter has yet to officially announce any cross endorsements they may be doing this year, but they would logically repeat the one candidate in this race who was cross endorsed in 2021, Republican Liz Keating.

One candidate, Richardo Hayward, turned in petitions, but had an insufficient number of valid signatures to qualify. He could still appeal this decision if he was close to the 500 signatures needed, but he likely was not close enough to find any variance to make up the difference.

This will be an election with both a foregone conclusion for a Democratic victory and a real race for the last two seats on council.  The race should come down to Republican Liz Keating, Seth Walsh, and Ann Albi.  Audricia Brooks is a new candidate and no indication of any support, but with the lack of names on the ballot, she has a chance to win, depending on who votes and how they vote. There are multiple scenarios that have more than a minimal possibility to occur.  I've yet to game all of them out, but those variables are the only element of the City Council Race that are in question.  The ballot issues pending are a very different story.  I expect those races, especially the Railroad issue, to have more contention and questions on the outcome.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡
Audricia Brooks (I)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati Democrats Win Super Majority on City Council in 2023 Before a Single Vote is Cast

Without a single vote cast, I can project that the Cincinnati Democratic Party will retain AT LEAST seven seats and a super majority on Cincinnati City Council. For those skeptical of my basic math skills, please note that the Democrats have endorsed nine candidates for City Council and there are two other candidates on the ballot. So, the Democratic candidates just need to vote for themselves at a minimum and they are going to get seven on council.

Not withstanding the angst from the local City Hall Report from the Enquirer in Thursdays "commentary", it is not the fault of the Democrats that only two other candidates are on the ballot. The Democrats are operating in the same system as every other person and party in the City. This may make the race boring as there are no fire breathers in the race to make for good copy. This means that all the more time to devote to policy and the City Issues on the ballot. Plus, there are two non-Democratic endorsed candidates with a chance to win.

The failure for the low number of candidates falls on the other political parties/groups in the City. They gave up. They could not muster up the organization to get behind candidates and make a run. Trying to push that blame on the success of Democrats is bias from the Enquirer, envy from the Republican Party, and from at least one former council candidate, Michelle Dillingham, who's own hubris led to not being part of the leadership of the part she has routinely attacked for not giving her power. 

Republicans have gone insane, so they can't field any type of slate other than one single candidate, who has gone OUT OF HER WAY to be as moderate as she can possibly be. Their party has become so Trumpist, they can't get any other palatable Republicans to run.  They will have to rely on moderates to back Liz Keating for her to have a chance to win.  With the expected surge in Democratic Turnout in November's election for the Abortion rights Issue, that may not be enough.

Charter seems to have fully retreated. There would see like there is a place for the Charter Committee to retain some minor influence on council, but their power base has faded out.  The group may be more suited to working on City specific ballot issues and avoid trying to get candidates elected.

Leftists seem to have blown their wad in the 2021 election year and failed so miserably that they were scared off of running out any other candidates. As is so often the case, leftists divide themselves, because the activists each want personal power more than anything else.  If a group of activists had worked together and picked a single candidate to get behind, they could actually make a showing.  However, if they are full on leftists, they also must realize that their views are not popular.  There is no silent hoard waiting to rise up for the revolutionary cause or even get them close to getting on council.

The last two years have been quiet, relaxed years.  The Enquirer, Republicans, and Leftists have tried to manufacture controversy and scandal to fulfil their self-interests.  They are to blame for not wanting elected officials to govern, they want them to play their games, each to own ends.  I myself like sane, quiet governance.  Ask questions, but don't assume a 5th column of conspirators are around every corner because that potion is what gets you more likes on social media. Getting attention is not politics, it is marketing. Policy is politics. Focus on that and less on drama. Drama is for the stage, not for City Hall.

Issue 1 Turnout and the Abortion Issue on the Ballot Will Impact the Cincinnati Council Elections, But How?

Issue 1 went down in flames, but that was not the only development in local Politics here in Cincinnati.  City Council Elections are coming up and turnout is going to drive who get's elected, partially. Turnout was higher than expected within Cincinnati for the single issue special August election. Traditionally, you can't get anyone to vote in August. The August 8th election instead had higher turnout than the last council election in 2021. City voters would now be expected to come out to vote in numbers as least as high in November and that will impact the race for City Council.

At this point, there are only 11 candidates currently set to make the ballot with the August 24th deadline FAST approaching. Nine endorsed Democrats, one presumedly endorsed Republican, and one Independent candidate. There is only one other name amongst those who have taken out petitions that could compete and her act blue fundraising website states it is inactive and not accepting contributions. I am counting her out.

That means unless there is some hidden candidates or one comes out at the last minute in the next two weeks, we can be sure that the Democratic Party will retain a supermajority on council by doing nothing but voting for themselves.

That does leave two seats in play, but with the abortion issue coming this fall, not to mention multiple other issues (Weed legalization, Sale of the Cincinnati Railroad, and an odd Issue that could raise the income tax later) it looks like Democrats could win all nine seats on council. You will have to go to way back to find that type of single party rule.  I honestly don't like the concept, but I see it as the most likely thing to happen.  The Abortion, Weed, and RailRoad sale issues will suck all of the air out of election season and that means the expected larger number of voters, more than the 32% turnout rate the City had for the August 8th Special Election, will push the nine Dems ahead.

It is possible that through strategic voting by Conservatives and Moderates along with Progressive/Leftists campaigning for a long shot leftist candidate playing spoiler couldget Republican Liz Keating elected.

Eastside Moderates vote and Eastside Moderates like Liz Keating.  An organized target voting campaign could make the difference.  Most people do not vote for nine candidates, but most vote for at least six. If moderates, who usually pick more than six, instead vote for one or two candidates, that MIGHT shake things up enough to make one of the two unelected candidates fall from get the nineth spot.

I am not advocating for a short ticket strategy. I believe in voting for best candidates, not just the one or two who might agree with me the most.  I voted for seven last time. I would say I may be a the same number this time.  Maybe eight or nine, it depends.

If the Democratic voters don't turn out in similar numbers not only will the Abortion rights issue faulter, Liz Keating will likely get on council.

By the end of the month we should be set on the ballot and know if anyone else will even get on the ballot.  If there are more than 15 I would be very surprised. I can only find ten candidates who are fundraising so far. If you don't have your own money, then you are just not going to get elected without some fundraising.

I will update the candidate listing late this month as soon as the deadline passes to submit petitions. This is going to be a big general election, but I think the 2023 City Council Election will be by far the most uneventful and predictable one of the 20+ years I have been blogging about them.

Cincinnati City Council Election July 2023 Update

Are there going to be more than ten candidates for Cincinnati City Council? There is barely anyone outside of the nine endorsed Democrats and the one Republican who has any online campaign presence. Simple social media content is the cheapest and quickest way to actually have a campaign and I can find few with any presence. That lack of any online footprint means they have limited their ability to raise any funds. It is difficult to raise money and wage any type of campaign at this late stage without a political party or other PAC endorsements.

The deadline to turn in signatures to get on the ballot is just over a month away, August 24, and at this point any serious candidate would be raising money. I only see 10-11 serious candidates currently and Jamie Castle is the 11th who at this point would be on the ballot, but after she did not get the Democratic Party endorsement, she made a comment to the media that she may not run.  So far she has not withdrawn her petitions.

The only variables in the race that could shake things up as if now is the outcome of the August 9th special election and if the Reproductive Rights ballot issue that is in process to be approved for the General Election in November.  The outcomes of those items will GREATLY alter the turnout in November.

If the Issue 1 No vote wins in August and Reproductive rights are on the ballot in November, turnout will be much higher in the City and that should be highest amongst voters who favor Reproductive Rights.  That turnout would play havoc with a City Council Race with only a smaller number of candidates on the ballot.

If there were only 12 to 15 candidates on the ballot and only really 12 candidates with a viable chance, that could mean that the last 2 seats would really be in play.  That assumes that seven Democrats, all of the elected incumbents, would be safe.  That is not a done deal, but there would need to be a very big shift from the last election to alter the results this year.  I don't see that happening.

The Demographics of Cincinnati have not changed significantly since 2021.  The only big variable would be for turnout to change the demo of those who vote.  That is possible, but with a small number of credible candidates, voters are not going to just vote for other without a reason.

The open window, which always exists in Council Races, is for a well known candidate to enter the race late.  As far as any person who has taken out petitions thus far, 12 is the max who anyone would consider a credible candidate.  The only bait and switch that could occur would be that one or more of the individuals who have taken out petitions are actually doing it on behalf of another candidate.  An unusual and unlikely occurrence, but not impossible.

The inclusion of local tax levies and the Railroad Sale to the ballot will also drive out turnout, even if the Reproductive Rights issue is not on the ballot, so that also can make things interesting, but in the City the type of voter those issues tend to get out to vote are conservatives, which is not a large demographic for Council elections.

My prediction is that less than 20 people will be on the ballot and 15 would be the number I would bet on at the point.  Candidates who wait until the last minute and don't have any campaign actually going are going to be long shots, so if no campaigns show any sense of life in the next few weeks, I would say no one new is coming out of the wood work.

What is so funny, is that Republicans and Charterites were largely responsible for the return to two year terms for members of council. They feared the Dems would maintain majorities with 4 year terms and lock in support.  It appears, with neither group showing any sign of supporting candidates, that Dems got the same thing with two year terms.  That is jumping the gun, but we are on track for Dems winning a majority on council before a single vote is cast.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Mark Jeffreys *(D)
Scotty Johnson *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)
Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (C)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (I)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (I)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Richardo Hayward (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Kelley Cowdrey (R)
Gwendolyn Edogun (I)

Taken Out Petitions, But Do Not Appear to Live in the City
Sharetha Collier (I)
Andrew Kennedy (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election June 2023 Update

After a long delay, the Cincinnati Democratic Committee finally made its endorsements for Cincinnati City Council race. All eight sitting members were endorsed, along with first time candidate Anna Albi. Minor grumblings were present from a significant portion of precinct executives present at the media.  Those grumblings were both enhanced and amplified by the local media in attendance at the meeting. It never ceases to amaze me how "drama" can be whipped up into fodder for the local media. I was especially dismayed at the display of bias from the Cincinnati Enquirer's "reporter" Sharon Coolidge who embarrassed herself with her Opinion article about the meeting. The following exaggeration was built to stroke Suburban Republicans egos with a talk radio narrative their prejudice embraces.

Instead, the Cincinnati Democratic Committee meeting Tuesday night in an Evanston union hall went down like a reality show that could rival any 'Housewives' reunion on Bravo.

 Add that to a remarkable lack of understanding of Roberts Rules of Order by multiple reporters and participants in the meeting. I would hate to think what a reporting attending a nine member council meeting would do, when four members vote in favor of an ordinance, three vote against, and two abstain. The ordinance would pass. It is a fairly common function of most voting situations in all legislatures and or voting bodies within organizations. It made me think of a scene from All the Presidents Men (1976)

WOODWARD: Who's Charles Colson?

ROSENFELD: Sit Down. You know I’m glad you asked me that question. The reason I’m glad you asked me is because if you asked Simons or Bradley they would’ve said you know we’re going to have to fire this schmuck at once because he’s so dumb.

There are few would would get that reference, but that small group is my core audience!

The Democrats had ten possible candidates for the nine council spots.  They did not endorse Jamie Castle. News reports indicates she was considering not continuing her run.  I think the mere mention of this in multiple news articles would drastically hurt any campaign.

The lack of viable candidates in the race this year makes the possible outcomes of the last couple of seats open.  At this point there are at most 12 or 13 candidates who can muster the level of votes to win. The logical thing for non-Democrats and non-Republicans to do is get behind Jamie Castle and see how far they could take it. She has the signatures to be on the ballot. Someone like Michelle Dillingham should be running her campaign and to pull in the progressive/leftist support she has and see what moderate support she can pick up.  Instead of that, Michelle Dillingham took out petitions to run and teased via Tweet that she is thinking about running.  She didn't announce she was running, she teased that she might run.  I didn't see a big response to her Tweet. At this late date in the world of campaign fundraising, it is a foolish move to attempt it. Dillingham might better spend her time working to defeat Issue 1 this August, than wasting her time running for City Council. Ego is tough for an activist to look past.

Charter Committee seems to be thinking about the Rail Road, but not fielding any candidates for Council. They will certainly allow Liz Keating to slap a Charter label on her campaign, but we won't see much of them otherwise.

Republicans are just doing nothing. They have all but given up on fielding any candidates beyond Liz Keating who is running as a RINO, literally as a Republican in Name Only.  Keating will take GOP money, but is not run away from any Republican who would piss off Hyde Park Moderates. Saylor Park can just go fuck off for being Trumpistan. California (the neighborhood) can do the same with a small pond full of staunch Republican votes, but they are it, in the City. The rest of the County is drying up on knuckle dragging Troglodytes, but the County Party lives and dies on a weak Trumpist brand fascism, heaving on hollow red meat, to keep the foaming mouths from splitting the party.

The hot summer is upon us and I see little new to tilt the campaign beyond conventional wisdom. No candidates are making waves with any new ideas and no scandals seem to be breaking through, No matter how desperately the Enquirer and Suburban Republicans are to make it happen out of thing air.

The bet for the summer is OVER/UNDER on 15 as the number of candidates who are on the ballot for City Council in November.  As far as viable candidates, UNDER without any doubt. As far as total candidates, I would say OVER, but barely over 15.  What would it take it get sports betting to include political races in Ohio?  Would that increase turnout? Someone would call it corrupt and someone else would say it wouldn't make it any more corrupt than it already is, but odds are neither of those complainers would vote for City Council anyway.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Mark Jeffreys *(D)
Scotty Johnson *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)
Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (C)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (I)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (I)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Richardo Hayward (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Kelley Cowdrey (R)

Taken Out Petitions, But Do Not Appear to Live in the City
Sharetha Collier (I)
Andrew Kennedy (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Let's See Action, Let's See People, Let's See Freedom, Let's See Who Cares

 A big news Friday for the Cincinnati City Council Election. There is controversy that will stir up a little bit of coverage for an otherwise uneventful and unnervingly quiet election year. Council Member Seth Walsh is the subject of an Ethics Investigation by the City's Office of Ethics and Good Government. The issue is that Walsh's campaign manager, now reportedly former campaign manager, was allegedly directing Walsh city staffer on what to do.

On the surface, that really does not seem like a big deal. Every Republican and Leftist crank will be filled with self righteous ire with my dismissal of this allegation. I am not going to lose sleep over it and I am not even sure this is "unethical." So far there is no allegation of any illegality, a detail that is not at the forefront of some of the news reports.

Unless other allegations or information not already reported comes to light, this is at best going to be a minor political story and fodder for snide Twitter comments from at least one rejected applicant for the appointment to council Walsh received. I won't mention their name, but I continue to see why they were not considered for the appointment. 

Something to remember: There is not a "church and state" type of communication line in a council member's office.  Creating a good image and getting media coverage is part of the job.  Yes, that makes them look good and that helps the campaign and is what the campaign wants. Making phone calls to raise money or helping plan a campaign fund raiser while on the clock is not allowed. If that type of action was alleged, I would have expected that to be in the letter. Instead, communication by the person making the allegation indicates that Walsh never made any requests to do campaign work while on the job.

There will be those claiming purity on the actions of the campaign staffer, but they would be grasping at straws and that is such a waste of time. This can at most be a judgement on Walsh's ability to vet and manage his own staff. If this story gets much more coverage than when the ethics office reports on the investigation, then I for one will cry fowl on any journalist doing that.  If there is more to this, then publish new credible allegations, but trying to just make this into a bigger story based on the facts known now will look so insanely biased. We can be thankful that Jason Williams is no longer writing a political column.  I am sure he would attempt to make this into a federal case as a further try out for his conservative talk radio career. I have fingers crossed for Jason's fledging radio career, hoping he can move out of journalism altogether.

More from the Enquirer and the Business Courier.

Cincinnati City Council Election May 2023 Update

In 2017 we knew by the end of April who was endorsed as a Democratic Candidate for City Council. Prior to that they endorsed 10 candidates in 2013 and it was a mess. In 2021 there was pointless drama when the progressive wing wanted to endorse a candidate that attacked the party in favor of extremist policies. I don't have any foolish expectations that this year will be any different. With seven elected incumbents (and one appointed incumbent) the process should logically be different. The Hamilton County Democratic Party just this week published a notice that the Cincinnati Democratic Committee will be holding a meeting on May 25th to vote on the party endorsements. I've heard little chatter about this year's endorsement round, but there not many active non-incumbent candidates making much noise, so this election cycle everything has been near silence in public.    Last month the party published the notice of the endorsement processes and it included a key provision on candidate interviews, something I don't recall seeing before:

Candidates must have petition signatures submitted and reported as “Sufficient” by the Hamilton County Board of Elections staff before their endorsement interview.

 As of Friday evening there are only eight candidates with their petitions reported as sufficient. That includes only six incumbents of eight.  I don't know if the previously elected incumbents are required to be interviewed again. The notice was not specific on that point. The only appointed member of City Council, Seth Walsh, has turned his signatures in to the BOE.  There are only two non-incumbents with signatures submitted, Anna Albi and Jamie Caslte. Both are approved for the ballot.  That leaves two questions for the process: 1) Will all incumbents get endorsed and 2) Which of the two non-incumbents will get endorsed.  Of course it is possible that the answer to #1 is no and that makes the presumption that both non-incumbents would be endorsed. There is no indication that the Democratic Party has any intention to upend the process.  There are not any candidates that have any public negatives that would mean squandering the advantages of incumbency to the election. That leaves the endorsement choice between Castle and Albi. 

The Hamilton County Republican Party just updated their website this week to show the new chairman that was elected months ago.  They don't seem to want to bother with much promotion of their City Council candidate(s).  The local elections they are successful in Hamilton County are small monolithic areas that rarely have any actual competition. At this point if they had any candidates other than Liz Keating for Cincinnati City Council, that candidate would be campaigning in the City (at least online.)  I see no one other Republican candidates with a serious chance of getting elected in the City.

Charter Committee appears to be adrift.  There is no evidence of any candidates that will be on the ballot, except a likely cross endorsement of Republican Liz Keating. 2021 was terrible election for Charter. It was nothing short of a blood bath. I don't know what it will take for Charter to get back on its feet.  There is at least one person on the Charter Board who is not going to help bring them back from the brink. If anything this person is going to drive them off the deep end into permanent oblivion.

Here are the 26 candidates who have taken out petitions so far. I would be surprised if any other credible candidates take out petitions and I would not be surprised that only 15-18 candidates actually make the ballot.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)
Reggie Harris (D)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Mark Jeffreys (D)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R,C)
Seth Walsh (D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
James Jenkins (C)
Andrew Kennedy (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (D)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (D)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Sharetha Collier (D)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Quentin Taylor (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election April 2023 Update

Not sure about you, but if I didn't know better, I would think we are still a year or more away from the next Cincinnati City Council Election. In reality, the deadline to turn in petitions to get on the ballot for the election is a mere four and a half months away.

That means campaigns, any serious campaign, should be in high gear. At this point, I don't see any campaign in high gear. Sure, the incumbents are in the news, but campaigning seems to be quiet.  The main reason for this is likely the overwhelming victory of the Democratic Party in the last election (2021.)  Nothing seems to be happening from any other group to challenge them. The Republicans seem to be settling for a single seat, which they are only hanging on to because Republican Liz Keating has taken very moderate stances while in office and campaigning.  

The Charter Committee seems to be either dead or has gone into indefinite hibernation.  They have no coherent message message to offer, other than being the party that will cross endorse candidates and the only value there is that a few more donors will contribute to a moderated Republican candidate (like Keating).

That leaves only two questions at this point for the November election. 1) Who will get the 9th Democratic Party Endorsement and 2) Will Michelle Dillingham run for office?

The answer to #1 seems to be lining up for Jamie Castle.  At this point, there are no other experienced and credible Democrats who have taken out petitions to get on the ballot.  Those nominations should be made very soon.

The answer to #2 on the surface seems like no, Michelle Dillingham is not running for City Council.  Her campaign website is gone and since she and her supporters really poorly handled the process to appoint a replacement for Greg Landsman's seat late last year, her electability has not improved. If she still wants to get on council it might be a good idea to sit out a cycle or two and wait for some term limits to come into play or other churn on council to open up more seats and gamble that people will forget how her history of needlessly confrontational campaigning and social media discourse would be a sign that she would not be good at governing and is more of just an activist, with the goal of gaining attention for a cause.

Does that leave us with a race only for ninth place?  Is this a Liz Keating v Jamie Castle race?  OR will Liz climb higher in the results as the only Republican candidate?  Republicans are just fading away in both the City and Hamilton County, but low voter turnout has traditionally been beneficial to Republican candidates. At this point there is nothing point to anything other than a conventional wisdom election.

I am sure leftists will ache and moan about something, while they continue to fail to create a viable governing strategy. Instead they will continue to push a puritanical socialist agenda that has so far produced nothing but losing campaigns.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)

Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)

Mark Jeffreys *(D)

Scotty Johnson *(D)

Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Jamie Castle (D)

Andrew Kennedy (I?)

Boyd Miller (R)

Stephan Pryor (?)

LaKeisha N. Cook (D) 

James K. Jenkins (I?)

Catherine Botos (?)
Rufus Bowman (?)
Audricia Brooks (?)
Lawrence Brzezinski (?)
Linda Matthews (R)
Boyd Miller (?)
Quentin Taylor (?)

Maybe Could Still Run?
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Jackie Frondorf (D,C)
Alyson Steele Beridon (D)
Brian Garry (D)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Elections are Less Than One Year Away

November 7, 2023 is Election Day in the City of Cincinnati and all nine seats on City Council are up for election.  In case you forgot, City Council terms are two years, again, so we are back at it again in less than 12 months.  What, you are not excited?  You don't want to follow along with the fringe candidates that have chance to win, but scream the loudest about what ever odd causes they push?

2021's election established that the Democratic Party has a lot of support in the City and that earned them eight of nine of the seats.  Anyone looking to get elected will have to find a way to counter the overwhelming dominance of the Dems. The logical conclusion is that few strong candidates will make a run.  There could still be some movement at the lower ranks, including the lone Republican on Council, but with the power of the Democratic Party at this point, no one would be betting against the Dems keep a veto proof majority on council.

With Greg Landsman leaving soon for Washington as the next Congressman for the Ohio First District, another person will fill one of those eight.  The process to pick the replacement candidate will be run by Council Member Reggie Harris, with an application for those interested in the appointment on his council webpage, which are due by end of day Sunday 11/27/2022.

At this point little is definitely known about who is actually going to run. It is reasonable that all incumbents will be running, along with who ever is appointed to fill Landsman's seat. WVXU's Becca Costello reported on Twitter that two current members of council have pulled petitions to run for Council, Keating and Owens.  Four others also have already pulled petitions to get on the ballot (see below.)

With that in mind, here is a list of the incumbents, those with petitions out, those who have been speculated to be possible appointees, and my list of prior candidates who might run again.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)

Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)

Mark Jeffreys *(D)

Scotty Johnson *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Andrew Kennedy (I?)
Seth Walsh (D)

Boyd Miller (R)

Stephan Pryor (?)

Getting Attention for Appointment to Greg Landsman's Seat
Jamie Castle (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Jackie Frondorf (D,C)
Alyson Steele Beridon (D)
(Also Seth Walsh)

Maybe Will Run Again?

Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
LaKeisha N. Cook (D) 

Galen Gordon (C)
Rob Harris (D)
K. Heard (G)
Evan Holt (DSA)
Nick Jabin (I)
John Maher (I)
Phillip O'Neal (D)
Logan-Peter Simmering (G)
John Williams (D)
Robert Adler (I)
Jalen Alford (D)
James K. Jenkins (I?)


Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

The Best and Worst in Cincinnati Politics for 2021

It is time once again to look back over the past year and pick out the highs and lows of Cincinnati politics. 2021 gave a reason to directly deal with Cincinnati Politics that has been missing with the advent of 4 year council terms, something that has thankfully ended.

With that jolly thought in mind, I need to remind the few readers that this listing is a HIGHLY scientific process based on a combination of high level mathematics, caffeine, and the desire to illustrate the good, bleak, and pointlessness of the many varied political undertakings of the past year.

The Best

1. Democrats Elect Eight to City Council: A new beginning with a good team. 
2. Aftab Wins Mayor's Race by Large Margin: Positive leadership for the City and the region.
3. Smart Move: Democrats refusing to allow cross party endorsements of candidates. They were attacked for doing this, but it was a wise choice and most importantly, it worked.
4. Liz Keating Sneaking on Council: Her appointment to City Council in late 2020 was dubious at best, but her tenure on council was as a very moderate candidate, at least in appearances.  Getting the Charter endorsement was the kicker that got her enough votes to get the last spot on Council.
5. Defeating Both Issue 3 Ballot initiatives:
• In May during the Primary Election far left wing activists tried a massive power grab for a group of unelected social service leaders and their advocates.
• In November everyone saw through Tom Brinkman fronting for an ill conceived Republican Donor backed effort to cripple the city.

The Worst

1. The Republican Party: Anyone with any amount of experience following politics would be able to identify the set of positive circumstances for Republicans heading into the 2021 election: a) A corruption scandal, expanded by the GOP fishing expedition enabled by a Republican Judge, b) an increase in shootings (though not an overall increase in crime), and c) Three sitting Republicans on council as incumbents.  Throw in tons of suburban Republican money and they were poised to win some power on council. They still couldn't field enough candidates for a five person majority, let alone anything close to a full slate of candidates.  They ended up with one member elected in the last position.  That candidate ran publically as a very moderate candidate that likely connected well with moderate women..  The more conservative candidates lost far more significantly.  A complete failure.  Any other political party would fire people over this. 
2. Tom Brinkman: The guy is a right wing extremist who is against the the existence of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. He thought somehow he could find a way to waste a ton of money on a fruitless campaign. He didn't even bother creating a website for his council campaign.  He knew he was going to lose. He also essentially lost twice.  He got his ass kicked in the council race and his Ballot Issue lost big time as well.  He wasted a ton of Republican money and that would be a redeeming quality if he did it on purpose, which he did not. He may try to run for something county wide. He may find he won't fair much better, no matter how much GOP money the fat cats are willing to waste on him.
3. Issue 3 for a $50 Million power grab: This was a terrible ballot issue that appears to have been crafted to either intentionally fail or to force the City to gut the funding of the Police Department. I list those too extremes because it was a horribly written issue that put all of the big issues onto City Council to figure out and then clean up with no direction. I don't know how any honest group could put if forward as it did they thought it was good policy. It also gave unelected left wing activists power with no checks or balances or the ability of the public to have oversight certain portions of unelected board given this power. I person did not vote for anyone who publicly supported the Ballot Issue.  What is sad and likely shows the cynical intent of its originators is that a large group of people felt they had to support this because they support creating more affordable house.  This Ballot issue was a really bad way to do that.
4. Supporters of Issue 3: Beyond the badly written ballot issue, there were so many puritanical supporters of this issue who viewed getting it passed as a litmus test.  Those who did not have absolute support for the issue were vilified and often ostracized by its most vocal supporters.  Hell of a way to run a railroad or social movement....
5. Independent Progressives: Adding to the Issue 3 fiasco, they lost BIGTIME in the City Council Election.  If you are going to run against the Democratic Party, then you better learn to be a unified party with viable candidates that might build up a credible following.  Instead, they support 'Socialists' with no viable ways to govern a city. Leftist activists are not good political leaders, they are just attention seekers.  Organize a team with common viable goals, not a bunch of crackpots who have a bunch of bad political views that not only are bad policies, they are policies that can't win outside of leftist clubs on college campuses. 
6. Michelle Dillingham's Campaign: A simple rule to follow when you want the endorsement of a political party, don't work against and criticize that same political party. The Democratic Party in Cincinnati had a clear goal for its candidates, unity.  Dillingham did not want to be unified with anyone.  Her campaign was about being aggressive and working against certain groups. She did not demonstrate that she wanted to work with other who frankly are not far off on policies. Her crusade against SORTA and the bus service was incomprehensible. Sure, it riled up some parents that may have turned into voters, but attacking public transit is not a winning position for any left of center political candidate.
7. Brian Garry Campaign: From passing out intentionally misleading and dishonest campaign literature at the polls to alienating a campaign manager, Brian Garry demonstrated why he would not be a good member of council or any elected office.  I hope this is end of him running again.  He needs to move on from politics.
8. The Charter Committee: They had several solid candidates, but they did not have a wide reaching organization to get support. The de facto political party lacks the infrastructure of the two major parties and it shows.  They need to reassess what they are doing and how they approach Cincinnati Elections if they are going to ever have an impact, again.
9. Anyone Who Believed That City Council Poll: A political 'poll' made the rounds amongst political circles and many people believed it, especially the Enquirer's Jason Williams and perennial Republican candidate Charlie Winburn. I don't know who conducted or paid for the polls, but the one I saw only included four endorsed Democrats in the top nine. Williams looked like a fool when he had a column that included most of this poll's top nine as his prediction. He is not good political analyst and is a hack columnist.  The poll was at best a favorability or name recognition survey, not a true poll, something very difficult to do with an at-large nine-seat race. Here's hoping that people who follow politics take more time to understand the evolving electorate, instead of thinking the election of 15 or 20 years ago is the same as today.

Moving on from the Best/Worst, here are couple more tidbits that I either learned this year:

1. If you think Democrats are going to do this well in Council Elections every year, you are mistaken. They will have an advantage for the next couple elections, but the electorate will change again. I don't see it getting any more Republican, but moderate candidates have a very doable path to get on council next time around.
2. Price Hill and Westwood are no longer Republican Strongholds in City politics. There are a few pockets, but conservative white flight has continued.

That's all I got. Happy New Year!

2021 Cincinnati City Election Generation Turnout

Democrats won a Mega Majority on City Council this year and nearly as many Boomer's voted than GenXers and Millennials combined.

I just don't know what to say about this. The classic notion is if you don't participate, then you have zero credibility if you complain. I will be sure to find a way to point that out to annoying young leftists on Twitter that bug me.

For comparison here is the turnout in 2020 for the same set of registered voters from 2021.

A comparison of the two looks like this:

The younger generations are refusing to participate in elections in remotely similar ratios to older generations.  This is not a new occurrence, but I would speculate the Millennials are staying uninvolved longer than prior generations. We in GenX are nothing to crow about either, just to be fair.

What truly I don't get: Why bother to registered to vote if you are not going to vote? There are Tens of Thousands of people who don't bother to vote, but for some reason felt the need to register to vote.

What was Turnout Like in the 2021 City of Cincinnati Elections?

The simple truth about the 2021 City of Cincinnati Election turnout is that it was historically low. There is no question that a large majority of registered voters did not want to vote in this election. Why it is low is not easy to answer with out more data.  People will make lots of claims about why, but they will be either anecdotal or speculation.  What I have below are some statistics based on turnout data from the BOE's live turnout tracker.  I have created these based on two data points that are derived on other data I have compiled.  

The first data point is on the race demographics of each precinct.  I used the 2020 census data that provided population by race within each precinct.  I made a determination of which race was a clear majority of each precinct.  Where there was not a clear majority or the numbers were close, I considered that precinct a mix.

The second data point is neighborhood.  I have assigned a single neighborhood identification to each precinct.  This assignment is very much an approximation.  Four neighborhoods are not represented as I determined they are a minority portion of another precinct.  This was done by reviewing varied maps provided by the City and by the County's CAGIS map software.  These assignments could certainly be debated and if someone sees an error, please let me know.

The first chart I have looks at turnout grouped by the majority race of each precinct for 2021 compared to the turnout of 2017.  Please note the numbers listed are NOT a total of people who are of a particular race. The numbers are the registered voters and those who voted in precincts that have a majority of a particular race. I am sure most people get this, but unfortunately some people don't like to read the details and will just point to parts of labels and extrapolate bad data.  I hope that does not happen.

The biggest take away I see here is that the reduction in turnout compared to 2017 was overall fairly equivalent through these segments.  There is a larger decrease in turnout in black majority precincts, than white majority precincts, but oddly enough the mixed precincts changed nearly the same as white majority precincts. There could have been an effect on the election if the turnout was more closely aligned, but at best that could have affected the ninth spot in the race. The lower turnout in black majority precincts is in line with the 2020 election where each of the segments had turnout of 56.35%, 57.64%, and 68.81% respectively, so there are no factors that would be variant with other recent elections.

The next chart dives into a comparison of the neighborhood and ward turnouts.  I included a comparison to 2017 turnout rates and a vote total retention number as well. As I stated before, these neighborhoods are approximate and they are broken out by ward, as several neighborhoods are split between more than one ward.  In this detail you can see many neighborhoods and wards did not drop in turnout, as compared to 2017, as much as others.  It's difficult to see big patterns, but you can see that certain neighborhoods had a bigger impact on the election.  Hyde Park is regularly an important neighborhood for elections and this year that continued.  I will be examining the success of each candidate in the neighborhoods as I compile more data from yesterday's election.

Where are the Election Night Parties?

 It have been four long years since a local election in Cincinnati and the best part of any election is celebrating with the winners and commiserating with the losers at election night parties.

Here is the list of announced parties I have found:

Aftab Pureval - Lucious Q in Pendleton
Jeff Cramerding - Taste of Belgium at the Banks
Charter Committee - Esoteric Brewing in Walnut Hills
Jackie Frondorf - West Side Brewing in Westwood

I'll add more as I they are made public.

Historical Data from Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017

 Historical data from the Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017.

The turnout has been at extremely low levels in 2013 and 2017.  The 2017 number is somewhat misleading with the increase in registered voters coming from the 2016 Presidential Election. We see a turnout in direct numbers increasing by 7.4% from 2013 to 2017.

Early reports from BOE indicates that turnout will be in the 30% to 35% range for the county.  That likely puts it on the lower end of that for the City, so it would be in line with recent elections.  One known point, the number of registered voters in 2021 is about 216,186, so less than 2017, but fairly comparable.

The most interesting facts:

1. The average number of votes cast per ballot have historically been relatively consistent around 6.
2. The top winning nine candidates have received at least 57% of all votes.