Cincinnati City Council Election: August 2025 Update

The field of candidates for the Cincinnati City Council Election is set and I am taken aback by the number of local journalists who are desperate for a competitive race. The desire for entraining political content is what masquerades as political journalism a quarter of the way into the 21st Century.

This month we had some prior Republican members of council jump in to the race with the hopes that the manufactured national outrage driving Republican suburbanites to voice their irrational fears will get them elected. 

I am not surprised that Chris Smitherman jumped at the chance to exploit both easily panicked white people and Black voters who are unwilling to see Chris as the Republican he is, no matter how much he denies it.  The Hamilton County Republican Party practically begged him to run as a Republican, but instead Smitherman will run deceitfully as a hidden Republican.  Local media will let him get away with it.  The Business Courier's Chris Wetterich knows better, but will insist that Smitherman is an "Independent" for reasons that are not supportable by logic or reason.

I am disappointed that Liz Keating chose to jump on the Republican band wagon to try and ride the fearful Republicans and find a way to sneak back onto Council.  Since she has sought and earned an endorsement by the Republican Party in 2025, Keating is now a Trumpist.  She has been publicly silent on Trump and his fascist actions.  Now she is running with the full support of Trump's political party.  That means she lacks basic honor and dignity.  No human being can run as an endorsed Republican and be seen as honorable without taking steps that would get them kicked out their party for being disloyal to Trump.  That means she won't take those steps to avoid being a Trumpist.  She could have made a bargain, like Steve Goodin and Smitherman, to quietly get Republican support, but instead she appears to want to carry Trump's water. That is a shame that she lacks courage to denounce Trump publicly. Power matters more than honor to Keating, so she who is silent will be understood to consent to Trumpism.

Looking ahead to November, here is my analysis of the election.  It settles around three scenarios:

1. Democrats Win All Nine: This would be a repeat of the 2023 election.  That election had a significantly higher turnout than most City elections and the Democratic Party showed it's muscles. With only Ten candidates, it should have been fairly easy for Liz Keating to win reelection. She was significantly behind ninth place. Of my three outcomes I think this one is the least likely to happen this year, but if Dems can get a bigger turnout than I would expect, maybe 30% or more rather than the 25% in 2021, then it would be much more likely.

2. Democrats Win Eight: This would be a replay of the 2021 election. The 2021 election was not a high turnout election.  It had a large number of candidates, like this year. It had multiple previous elected council members running and other candidates with name recognition, like this year. That election also had three things that allowed Liz Keating to sneak on: 1) One bad Dem candidate, 2) Keating was a well liked appointed incumbent, and 3) a progressive candidate with a following that was pissed off that the progressive candidate did not get the Dem endorsement over the bad Dem candidate.  All three of these happening lead to Keating getting the lone non-Dem stop on Council in 2021. The three items are not present this year, so it will take something else.  The main possible ways would simply be turnout of Dems falling and moderates doing a wider level of strategic voting. This has many variations that could see 1 non-Dem candidate getting on.

3.Democrats Lose Two or Three Seats: The only way this happens is if Democratic turnout is very low and moderate/Republican turnout is up.  Additionally, Dems would need to either split votes just right to put out some of their endorsees. Moderate/Republican voting would also need to be "strategic."  They can't vote for five or more (let alone a full ticket) as that will dilute the vote for the two or three.  The In-The-Mix voters below would be the most likely group to get enough support to be amongst the two or three.

That's it, those are only three outcomes I can see occurring. I don't think Democrats will win less than six seats on Cincinnati City Council. The media and Republicans and Charter Party loyalists will pretend that possibility is the same as probability. The reality is that Democrats have a clear advantage within the City of Cincinnati and the Drama that will get the attention will be from a few candidates fighting over the scraps that the Democratic Party Voters leave behind. It is just as possible that Cole/Prophett get on as Keating/Smitherman. The small number of seats in play will be about turnout and about voting habits.  I see City Council voters in four groups: 1) Full Ticket voters [Nine], 2) Tall Ticket voters [Six to Eight], 3) Short Ticket voters [Two-Five], and 4) Bullet voters [One]. The average number of votes per ballot in 2023 was about 5.  In 2021 it was about 7.  If it stays at 7 (or rises) the circumstances for Dems losing one or less seats increases. More Short Ticket voting means more chances to blunt the Dem's Full Ticket sword.

The only question left for November is how much of a circus the Republicans will make of this election, with the full cooperation of the news media. The circus will not have significant effect on the election results, but will add to the discontent of the community.  Republicans have demonstrated that power is their goal, not community working together.

At this point, I am unsure if there will be enough new things to warrant another update to the election prior to November 4th.  Be sure to check out the HamCo BOE election schedule which has the voter registration deadline and the dates for early voting.

Democratic Endorsed Candidates
Anna Albi (D*‡)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D*‡)
Jeff Cramerding (D*‡)
Mark Jeffreys (D*‡)
Meeka Owens (D*)
Scotty Johnson (D*‡
Seth Walsh (D*‡)
Evan Nolan (D*‡)
Ryan James (D‡)

Other Candidates In-the-Mix
Aaron Weiner (C‡)
Laketa Cole (C‡)
Raffel Prophett (I‡)
Christopher Smitherman (R?‡)
Liz Keating (R,C?‡)

Other Endorsed Candidates
Steven Goodin (C‡)
Donald Driehaus (C‡)
Dale Mallory (I‡)
Dawn Johnson (C‡)
Linda Matthews (R‡)
Gary Favors (R‡)

Other Candidates Running
Audricia Brooks (I‡)
Donald Washington (I‡)
Jerry Corbett (I‡)
Kevin Farmer (I‡)
Brandon Nixon (I‡)
Stephan Pryor (I‡)
Gwen Summers (I-Write-In)

If there are other social media or full websites I didn't list for a candidate or there are updates to the one listed, please send me updates: (editor@cincyblog.com).

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (Petitions Sufficient)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me.