What to Write About for 2024?

It is 2024. Happy New Year!  Ok, so the honeymoon should be over in a Presidential Election year at about 12:04 AM on the 1st. It is day two of the year and I am looking ahead. Local elections are happening this year, but for Cincinnati there is not going to be much for me to write and think about. The Hamilton County Prosecuting Attorney and Sheriff races will be interesting to watch and should be competitive, but that's about it. 

Hamilton County has gone "Blue" in a partisan sense.  Compared to other urban counties, it is NOT as close and there are many more moderate voters that in certain races will easily split tickets.  For the Prosecutor's race the Republicans have had the edge for a long time.  This year is setting up to be one that the Democratic candidate has a very good chance of winning, with Joe Deters not on the ballot.

The most interesting thing I am seeing so far: All of the statehouse races in Hamilton County will be  contested by both parties.

 

National politics is something that is very difficult to write about.  State wide politics is also something that is difficult to write about for a large state like Ohio. I have no plans to write much about the Ohio Senate race as there is little I can add.

The only thing I may play with is using the State wide Voter Registration datasets.  I have linked in year end datasets and I plan on working on some statewide data.  I think getting turnout rates based on generation would be most interesting information I could compile.  In Hamilton County I have been doing this for years now, but seeing how different it would be statewide or for certain types of counties.  I don't have a profile created for all counties, but I could come up with some general variations.

I will be thinking about other topics to write about.  This blog used to be more active with more snark and more traditional political banter.  This blog is now almost 22 years old.  I used to care about being in the trenches, bare knuckle punching policy, parties, and pols.  I don't give shit about that. When I argue on something I am like a dog with a bone, I don't let it go.  I think it is better to avoid arguing.  Discussing, sharing ideas, maybe even debating can be good and high level.  On social media, it is not not.  On a blog, it can be better.  There can be depth, there can be facts and support.  There can be a pause to reflect before one just reacts. I am going to be thinking about other topics to write about.

Media has been something I long have cared about.  Locally, the news media is dying.  There are good journalism going on, but we just have failures going on in what is being covered and we have so much garbage journalism.  I don't think there is much I can write about that.  The causes are evident to me and no one is willing to change, as the average person is the problem with the media and the average jane and joe are too lazy to change or learn anything.  It is like we are doomed and I don't know the value of that.  Maybe there is some data to collect on who and what media exists.  Maybe there is something I can add.  I will try, but as I age my expectations don't expand like my waist.

Hamilton County 2023 Turnout by Generation

Hamilton County voter turnout was the highest level for a local election in recent memory. Abortion rights drove most of the additional turnout. Here is voter turnout by Generation:

These numbers are based on the updated voter registration data, not the final results, so there is a small variance. Below are final summary turnout results in the county.  First broken down by City vs Non-City:

 

Additionally, for those who like detail, here is turnout based on Neighborhood in the City and on Municipality outside of the City.  

Note that the City Neighborhoods are approximate, based on a precinct breakdown.  All 52 are included, but some neighborhoods are unable to be broken out separately.

What to Watch For in the Election Night Results in Cincinnati

For news junkies like myself, election night gives off a holiday eve vibe with lots to get exited about.  Here is a list of what I look for:

What time will the initial results come in from the Hamilton County Board of Election? The board of election reports actual voting results as fast as it can, but the first report is what I call "The Flop." This initial report is of no election day votes, but does include nearly all of the absentee and early voting results.  Under the old punch-card system, the BOE would report these results in a few minutes after the polls close.  Since we changed to an optical scan system around 20ish years ago, they don't move as fast.    I like to guess the time it posts, a friendly game to play while we wait for results.  For most elections it is within 30 minutes of polls closing.  After The Flop the next time to look any additional results is when the first precincts are reported.  That time is widely variable and has far more elements and people to determine when that information is reported. I don't expect those before an hour after polls close.  Unless there were long lines or other delays with certain precincts, all of the precincts are reported by midnight. There are still some absentee mail ballots pending for days and the provisional ballots, which have many other steps to go before all votes are tabulated.  This can take many days.

What will the Flop tell us about who will win? In the past The Flog was mostly just mail in votes, but since Obama's first election in 2008 this has grown bigger. Early voting has become a normally large portion of voting, especially for Democrats.  For Ohio the tilt to Democratic voters is still a clear variation, but the variances now are not as drastic as 2020, but still show a clear lean for Democrats.

For County or lower level races this gives a very telling snapshot, depending on the snap shot.  In the case of the City of Cincinnati, it really sets the table on any likely outcome.  For all of the City elections you should have a very clear idea of possible outcomes and likely the winners.

There are two main factors to consider: 1)What area does the race cover and 2) what is the variance between choices in the race.  For example, let's look at Issue 23 with fairly uncontroversial elements. This issue covers the City of Cincinnati only.  This means that the City results are what to watch.  The City is heavily Democratic, so The Flop is providing a more common representation of the overall vote.  The variance between the Yes/No results is then considered. There is no magic number or chart to check, but the bigger the lead one result has, the more likely it will win, no matter what variance may occurr with the election day vote base. For Issue 23 if is winning 58% to 42% after the Flop, it will win. If it is winning 52% to 48%, then odds are good it will win, but not as good.  The closer it gets, the more the electorate on election day could sway.  One VERY IMPORTANT thing to remember, these odds are not going to be enough in most cases to call the race.  The number of votes out there will be such that the other side "could" still win.  Issue 22 is one race that has less predictability on it, as the variation of which voting blocks are for or against the issue are not clearly drawn. That being said, on any ballot issue in the City, you NEVER want to be behind on the Flop. This ends up being a situation when people confuse possibility with probability.  This happens to often.

For the City Council race, with a non-binary voting options, the issues are different.  The gaps between each candidate then become the first question.  After the Flop the key issue is the vote result gap.  How far out is the 10th place from the top 9 places.  The bigger the gap, the smaller the chance that #10 can over take that candidate. The next question would the voting blocks each candidate relies upon. For the Democrats this year, they have the Dem Ticket and that block is strong. If they have all 9 slots and Republican Keating is last, her gap needs to be very small with the 9th place to give her the chance to pick up the small influx of Republican voters on election day (vs early voting). If Keating is not in 10th Place, she would be in a great position to win.  The higher she is in order, the more she locks in finishing in the top 9. There is far less certainty is this type of race, so less certainty comes from the Flop. If this was a mayoral election, it would be a different story.

What about State Wide Issues? Hamilton County results are not going to be an indication of anything alone with State wide issues, but there is an expectation game.  On Issues 1 and 2 HamCo would be expected to beat the polling numbers for those issues to pass.  That gets more pressing when look at just the City of Cincinnati results.  The same factors on what will happen can come from The Flop, but then the party swing with early voting becomes a bigger factor. What this means:  If the Yes polling result for Issue 1 is 58% for the State, Hamilton County should be significantly higher on that for it occur.  That direction is what should be examined.  When The Flop happens, Issue 1 should be dominating the county. Then as the election day results come in, when more Republican voters go to the polls, the Yes percentage should drop.  There is no set number to watch for, beyond The Flop. If they Flop is close or less than the polling numbers, that is a indicator of where things are going.  Again, this is not anything definitive on actual results, but it can tell you that the polling was off.

Where are the Election Night Parties? Ok, this is one that is far less fun than it used to be. Firstly it is less fun for me as I've gotten much older and can't stay out late.  The other reason is the toxic state of politics.  In the past, you could be friendly with those that don't agree with your politics.  Today, it is very difficult to put aside politics and be humans.  This is even true within political parties as well as between political parties. The negative and very nasty way the Anti-Issue 22 campaign waged demonstrated this more than anything.  It is so toxic.  I've seen people behave so terribly online with this campaign that it is very troublesome.  People could put aside the conflict once the polls close.  I will do my best to hold my tongue when Issue 24 crash and burns, but there are political groups who just spew so much negativity, I am not going to consider myself congenial if I just say nothing at all.

Cincinnati City Council Election October 2023 Update

The election is two weeks away and for City Council, we have no change. We are still going to have 8 Democrats on City Council. The largest majority for a single party in many decades. The right wing is seething over this and leftists are angry about not getting their way with a tiny number of supporters. There is a real race for the last two spots. I personally can see three ways for it turn out:

1. Liz Keating gets a bigger boost from incumbency and short ticket Republican voting and edges higher (6th or 7th place), pushing the last spot to an Albi-Walsh race.

2. Democratic turnout surges and the power of the slate is bigger with Issue 1 increasing turnout into the upper 30s percentage range and leaves Keating on the outside.

3. A three person race ensures; with Keating, Albi, and Walsh in a very close race that goes late into the night or even relies on provisional ballots to decide.

As usual, the flop on election night is what is the most interesting predictor. The flop, as I consider it, is the initial report the Hamilton County BOE makes on election night that reports the Early and Absentee vote totals.  This occurs fairly early in the evening, sometimes even before 8 PM.  With early voting a significant share from across the city, the initial results are unlikely to change if the variances between candidates are large enough. This year, that will be the tell for Keating.  If she is anywhere other than 10th place, she has a good shot.  If she is in 10th place, then she needs to be VERY close to the 9th place candidate.  As Republicans are generally not voting early in as large of numbers as Dems, she would stand to get a better surge of votes, especially with a spike of short ticket voting, from the election day votes.  With fewer Republicans in the City, that may not be enough.  Especially, since her two primary competitors, Albi and Walsh, would more than likely NOT be candidates a moderate or conservative voter would consider including on their ballot.

Issue 22 is not easily predictable.  The Support of the Democratic party and the silence from the Republican party make for a favorable outlook for passage, but it depends on turnout and if people vote down the ballot on most things.

Issue 23 should win with ease.  It is a reasonable measure that creates some improvements to the election process and operation of the City Council.

Issue 24 will very likely fail. No one wants to vote for a income tax increase. Add to that the issue is just another leftist scheme to force policy to the city without vetting the details of the plan and creating something that would intentionally tie the hands of future city councils is not a good idea.

Statewide Issues and 1 and 2 have one poll showing both with decent support.  Polling is not something to put much faith into, especially a single poll, but this poll is consistent with prior polling on the abortion issue generally in Ohio. There is no reason to expect a big drop in support for Issue 1, especially if turnout matches the August special election.

I am annoyed with the extreme level of propaganda from people against Issue 22. They have limited financial support, but the talking points that are being used by the anti-22 team online is either massively misleading or it is so generalized that it has no meaning. I am very disappointed with some individuals that have signed on with the Smitherman/COAST cabal leading the anti-22 efforts.  They have what I can best consider an emotional attachment to keeping the rail road and not a logical or analytical reasoning for their position. Fear that they can't control it seems more of their concern than the better financial position the city will obtain with the sale.

There have been few other outside groups with significant endorsements widely reported this year.  I can find no FOP endorsements and WVXU reports Liz Keating got a Charter endorsement, but other than a Xitter post about a fundraiser for Keating, I didn't find much on their support. I hear many complaints from Republicans and others about not having other candidates with diverse ideas to chose from, but Republicans and Charter have the means to support additional candidate to run, but they can't find any who are credible.  That is NOT the Dems fault, that is the fault of Republican and Charter organizations.  They need better leadership and real organization. You can't phone it in or be known as a party of extremists.  Maybe in 2025 they will find some candidates. I don't expect much.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent

Drama Free Zone

Early voting starts on Wednesday October 11th and it seems like there is no campaign going on. If you are reading this you might be longing for some political coverage of the election, but there really isn't anything to report.

If you want drama, then you want entertainment.  Political Journalism is about entertainment. There is so little good political journalism going on anywhere. One exception is a great article from Becca Costello at WVXU. Details, details, details is the core of what makes for good Political Journalism and that article has it from all sides.

I will avoid linking to the drama obsessed Enquirer.  I've recently tried to defend the Enquirer, as it is the most comprehensive local news source in the Cincinnati area. There political coverage is largely just entertainment for suburbanites.  We have a political journalist who is so transparently angered at the local Democratic Party for being successful. The passive aggressive angst seethes from Sharon Coolidge's articles.  She wants drama for her "news" article and she can't get Democrats on City Council to provide her with any.

We don't know much of what the candidates plan to do, but we know that unsuccessful left wing candidates can't understand why they are not welcome in the local Democratic Party after they burned every possible bridge they could over the last few elections.

I've been writing about local politics now for over 20 years and I am astonished at the apathy. Not only is the public apathetic, the local news media seems uninterested.

We'll have an election and stuff will happen.  There is actually some interesting variables to consider, but the discourse on politics today is just crap. The powerful tools available online are just garbage. You can't find any place to have a civil discussion on politics. I say that with a full acknowledgement that I myself have had many uncivil political arguments over the years. I believe I've tried to be honest and not rude.  I've been rude in response to others being rude or just out right bigots or racists. Stating the truth about bigots and racists is not rude, it is just honesty. Honesty is civility. 

I have made a strong effort to avoid the fools.  Blocking people who are repeatedly acting horribly on Social Media is not only a great choice, it is a quick one.  Don't feed the trolls, just block them.  The bots are always easy for people to block, but there are real people who are complete assholes online. I mean assholes.  There is no reason to engage with them, they only want your attention.  Life is short and people online who only detract from your life do not need to be part of it. 

Work to create a more Drama Free Zone in Cincinnati.  We need more effort to build a better local community.  I know how it could be done and so do most people, but we just don't seem to be able to connect in a world filled with easy ways to communicate. That conflictive puzzle will persist.

Cincinnati City Council Election September 2023 Update

Tumble weeds are traveling across the pollical landscape in the 2023 Cincinnati City Council race. There is nearly no campaigning going on. With only ten candidates that is not a surprise. Audricia Brooks did not, after final review by the Hamilton County Board of Elections, have enough signatures on her petitions. That leaves only endorsed candidates running, with only one non incumbent. The race is down to two questions:

1. Will Liz Keating get a support boost and finish higher and safer in the race, or will she be back competing for last place again like she did in 2021.
2. Will Albi or Walsh fair better than any of the seven previously elected candidates?

At this point, I would say with the expected high turnout amongst Democrats in November for the various ballot issues, I see Liz Keating's prospects of pushing higher up the rankings to be low.  That means to me the only action will be for the last two spots among Keating, Wasl, or Albi.  Those three need to campaigning.  Keating has a funding advantage and if she targets Republicans and Moderates, she might have enough to defeat the Democratic Party Lists.

With no big change possible on City Council, this means that only about a couple dozen people will be paying much attention to the council race.  The other ballot issues will take all of the media attention, so other then election night, I don't think much more will be published, unless a candidate tries to gain attention by creating controversy.

There is nothing wrong with a quiet election.  I think it is actually quite refreshing. There is a chance that these ten candidates could wage a full on retail election, with direct door to door or event connection.

The City, County and State ballot issues will be drawing the attention and generating the turnout, so the political parties will be spending there and not on the City Council race.  I fully expect all statewide issues to be nasty campaigns. The religious right is not against lying and cheating, so I expect we shall see a lot of that. I dread the lies, but that is politics now, especially those out to influence the ignorant. The electorate is made up of so much ignorance that it can be far too exploited.  It is what will doom Democracy.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election August 2023 Update

There are 11 candidates for the 2023 Cincinnati City Council election. The August 24th deadline to turn in petitions came and went this week and no additional candidates turned any in.  That is the smallest number of candidates in decades, at least since 1989 and likely longer ago. There are nine Democrats, one Republican, and one Independent candidate running. Charter has yet to officially announce any cross endorsements they may be doing this year, but they would logically repeat the one candidate in this race who was cross endorsed in 2021, Republican Liz Keating.

One candidate, Richardo Hayward, turned in petitions, but had an insufficient number of valid signatures to qualify. He could still appeal this decision if he was close to the 500 signatures needed, but he likely was not close enough to find any variance to make up the difference.

This will be an election with both a foregone conclusion for a Democratic victory and a real race for the last two seats on council.  The race should come down to Republican Liz Keating, Seth Walsh, and Ann Albi.  Audricia Brooks is a new candidate and no indication of any support, but with the lack of names on the ballot, she has a chance to win, depending on who votes and how they vote. There are multiple scenarios that have more than a minimal possibility to occur.  I've yet to game all of them out, but those variables are the only element of the City Council Race that are in question.  The ballot issues pending are a very different story.  I expect those races, especially the Railroad issue, to have more contention and questions on the outcome.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡
Audricia Brooks (I)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati Democrats Win Super Majority on City Council in 2023 Before a Single Vote is Cast

Without a single vote cast, I can project that the Cincinnati Democratic Party will retain AT LEAST seven seats and a super majority on Cincinnati City Council. For those skeptical of my basic math skills, please note that the Democrats have endorsed nine candidates for City Council and there are two other candidates on the ballot. So, the Democratic candidates just need to vote for themselves at a minimum and they are going to get seven on council.

Not withstanding the angst from the local City Hall Report from the Enquirer in Thursdays "commentary", it is not the fault of the Democrats that only two other candidates are on the ballot. The Democrats are operating in the same system as every other person and party in the City. This may make the race boring as there are no fire breathers in the race to make for good copy. This means that all the more time to devote to policy and the City Issues on the ballot. Plus, there are two non-Democratic endorsed candidates with a chance to win.

The failure for the low number of candidates falls on the other political parties/groups in the City. They gave up. They could not muster up the organization to get behind candidates and make a run. Trying to push that blame on the success of Democrats is bias from the Enquirer, envy from the Republican Party, and from at least one former council candidate, Michelle Dillingham, who's own hubris led to not being part of the leadership of the part she has routinely attacked for not giving her power. 

Republicans have gone insane, so they can't field any type of slate other than one single candidate, who has gone OUT OF HER WAY to be as moderate as she can possibly be. Their party has become so Trumpist, they can't get any other palatable Republicans to run.  They will have to rely on moderates to back Liz Keating for her to have a chance to win.  With the expected surge in Democratic Turnout in November's election for the Abortion rights Issue, that may not be enough.

Charter seems to have fully retreated. There would see like there is a place for the Charter Committee to retain some minor influence on council, but their power base has faded out.  The group may be more suited to working on City specific ballot issues and avoid trying to get candidates elected.

Leftists seem to have blown their wad in the 2021 election year and failed so miserably that they were scared off of running out any other candidates. As is so often the case, leftists divide themselves, because the activists each want personal power more than anything else.  If a group of activists had worked together and picked a single candidate to get behind, they could actually make a showing.  However, if they are full on leftists, they also must realize that their views are not popular.  There is no silent hoard waiting to rise up for the revolutionary cause or even get them close to getting on council.

The last two years have been quiet, relaxed years.  The Enquirer, Republicans, and Leftists have tried to manufacture controversy and scandal to fulfil their self-interests.  They are to blame for not wanting elected officials to govern, they want them to play their games, each to own ends.  I myself like sane, quiet governance.  Ask questions, but don't assume a 5th column of conspirators are around every corner because that potion is what gets you more likes on social media. Getting attention is not politics, it is marketing. Policy is politics. Focus on that and less on drama. Drama is for the stage, not for City Hall.

Issue 1 Turnout and the Abortion Issue on the Ballot Will Impact the Cincinnati Council Elections, But How?

Issue 1 went down in flames, but that was not the only development in local Politics here in Cincinnati.  City Council Elections are coming up and turnout is going to drive who get's elected, partially. Turnout was higher than expected within Cincinnati for the single issue special August election. Traditionally, you can't get anyone to vote in August. The August 8th election instead had higher turnout than the last council election in 2021. City voters would now be expected to come out to vote in numbers as least as high in November and that will impact the race for City Council.

At this point, there are only 11 candidates currently set to make the ballot with the August 24th deadline FAST approaching. Nine endorsed Democrats, one presumedly endorsed Republican, and one Independent candidate. There is only one other name amongst those who have taken out petitions that could compete and her act blue fundraising website states it is inactive and not accepting contributions. I am counting her out.

That means unless there is some hidden candidates or one comes out at the last minute in the next two weeks, we can be sure that the Democratic Party will retain a supermajority on council by doing nothing but voting for themselves.

That does leave two seats in play, but with the abortion issue coming this fall, not to mention multiple other issues (Weed legalization, Sale of the Cincinnati Railroad, and an odd Issue that could raise the income tax later) it looks like Democrats could win all nine seats on council. You will have to go to way back to find that type of single party rule.  I honestly don't like the concept, but I see it as the most likely thing to happen.  The Abortion, Weed, and RailRoad sale issues will suck all of the air out of election season and that means the expected larger number of voters, more than the 32% turnout rate the City had for the August 8th Special Election, will push the nine Dems ahead.

It is possible that through strategic voting by Conservatives and Moderates along with Progressive/Leftists campaigning for a long shot leftist candidate playing spoiler couldget Republican Liz Keating elected.

Eastside Moderates vote and Eastside Moderates like Liz Keating.  An organized target voting campaign could make the difference.  Most people do not vote for nine candidates, but most vote for at least six. If moderates, who usually pick more than six, instead vote for one or two candidates, that MIGHT shake things up enough to make one of the two unelected candidates fall from get the nineth spot.

I am not advocating for a short ticket strategy. I believe in voting for best candidates, not just the one or two who might agree with me the most.  I voted for seven last time. I would say I may be a the same number this time.  Maybe eight or nine, it depends.

If the Democratic voters don't turn out in similar numbers not only will the Abortion rights issue faulter, Liz Keating will likely get on council.

By the end of the month we should be set on the ballot and know if anyone else will even get on the ballot.  If there are more than 15 I would be very surprised. I can only find ten candidates who are fundraising so far. If you don't have your own money, then you are just not going to get elected without some fundraising.

I will update the candidate listing late this month as soon as the deadline passes to submit petitions. This is going to be a big general election, but I think the 2023 City Council Election will be by far the most uneventful and predictable one of the 20+ years I have been blogging about them.

Ohio Issue 1 Goes Down in Flames

Ohio Democracy dodged another bullet. Republicans were humiliated less than a hour after the polls closed when every major election specialist called the race for the No on Issue 1 Campaign.

Urban Counties and Cites, Cincinnati being one, were the key effort in winning.  Here are Hamilton County's unofficial results:

Good, for the City, turnout along with an overwhelming No vote on Issue 1 that was repeated in the 3C cities, led the charge. The suburban vote held up the brace with the Cites and pushed back the fascist hoard. Yeah, that's a dramatic description, but honestly, it is true.  This was an effort to create a fascist Ohio. One gerrymandered minority party in party that can rule without any challenge. Ohio is a Republic, where power is derived from the people, not a ruling class of Republican theocratic fascists. We held them off, for now.  This effort needs to be doubled in November if women are to be considered full citizens in Ohio. The vote will be much closer, but the vote in Cites like Cincinnati is crucial if the basic bodily autonomy for women is to be established again in Ohio.

Ohio Issue 1 Predictions: A Mix of Numbers and Gut

 I don't know if Issue 1 will pass tomorrow or not. I have no statewide data or secret polling data. The election hinges on two things: 1) Convincing people on the merits and 2) Voter turnout.

These topics are not equal. Convincing people on the merit is far less impactful than what voters turn out. What I think might happen includes the following.

1. Issue 1 Fails 60+%: Democrats, Liberals, Progressives and even the Leftists come out in strong numbers and vote. This along with Moderates and some Conservatives (Libertarian leaning) and defeat Issue 1 with 60%+ of the vote.
2. Issue 1 Passes 50.1-53%: Republicans manage to exceed the so far strong turn out in Cites using fear and insane scare tactics and manage to eek out narrow win with no more than the low 50s portion of the vote.
3. Issue 1 Fails 51 to 55%: This could happen I think if election day voting under performs in comparison to the early vote, but the Republicans make up some ground due to the older voters still voting, but don't make up for ground.

Each of the three possibilities could easily vary on the numbers to a degree.  My only feel for actual numbers on this is with Hamilton County.  Early voting has been amazing for an August election and actually way better than an off-year local election. The City of Cincinnati has a 71% increase in early voting over 2021's City Election.  Turnout in the City should vastly exceed 2021's pitiful 24.93%.  It should be way over 30%.  The rest of Hamilton County I would expect to at least match that rate, but that is part of the question for this election.  Which areas will turn out and which way will they vote.  In HamCo suburbs, who they will vote for is more up for grabs than a rural county.

My gut tells me Issue 1 will fail, but the may be a rare instance of optimism I have based on the online churn I see and the early voting turnout so far. There was only 1 known poll on Issue 1 I am aware was made public and then a 2nd poll that was not on Issue 1 directly, but asked a question on a portion of the change proposed in Issue 1.  The actual poll indicates defeat and the other poll lists an even race, with a bunch of undecideds. With the lack of additional data, this is one that any prognosticator would find difficult in calling, but logically, all of the tea leaves so far indicate it will fail.  One never knows. I am voting tomorrow morning.  For the handful of readers out there, you should too, and should vote NO!

Cincinnati City Council Election July 2023 Update

Are there going to be more than ten candidates for Cincinnati City Council? There is barely anyone outside of the nine endorsed Democrats and the one Republican who has any online campaign presence. Simple social media content is the cheapest and quickest way to actually have a campaign and I can find few with any presence. That lack of any online footprint means they have limited their ability to raise any funds. It is difficult to raise money and wage any type of campaign at this late stage without a political party or other PAC endorsements.

The deadline to turn in signatures to get on the ballot is just over a month away, August 24, and at this point any serious candidate would be raising money. I only see 10-11 serious candidates currently and Jamie Castle is the 11th who at this point would be on the ballot, but after she did not get the Democratic Party endorsement, she made a comment to the media that she may not run.  So far she has not withdrawn her petitions.

The only variables in the race that could shake things up as if now is the outcome of the August 9th special election and if the Reproductive Rights ballot issue that is in process to be approved for the General Election in November.  The outcomes of those items will GREATLY alter the turnout in November.

If the Issue 1 No vote wins in August and Reproductive rights are on the ballot in November, turnout will be much higher in the City and that should be highest amongst voters who favor Reproductive Rights.  That turnout would play havoc with a City Council Race with only a smaller number of candidates on the ballot.

If there were only 12 to 15 candidates on the ballot and only really 12 candidates with a viable chance, that could mean that the last 2 seats would really be in play.  That assumes that seven Democrats, all of the elected incumbents, would be safe.  That is not a done deal, but there would need to be a very big shift from the last election to alter the results this year.  I don't see that happening.

The Demographics of Cincinnati have not changed significantly since 2021.  The only big variable would be for turnout to change the demo of those who vote.  That is possible, but with a small number of credible candidates, voters are not going to just vote for other without a reason.

The open window, which always exists in Council Races, is for a well known candidate to enter the race late.  As far as any person who has taken out petitions thus far, 12 is the max who anyone would consider a credible candidate.  The only bait and switch that could occur would be that one or more of the individuals who have taken out petitions are actually doing it on behalf of another candidate.  An unusual and unlikely occurrence, but not impossible.

The inclusion of local tax levies and the Railroad Sale to the ballot will also drive out turnout, even if the Reproductive Rights issue is not on the ballot, so that also can make things interesting, but in the City the type of voter those issues tend to get out to vote are conservatives, which is not a large demographic for Council elections.

My prediction is that less than 20 people will be on the ballot and 15 would be the number I would bet on at the point.  Candidates who wait until the last minute and don't have any campaign actually going are going to be long shots, so if no campaigns show any sense of life in the next few weeks, I would say no one new is coming out of the wood work.

What is so funny, is that Republicans and Charterites were largely responsible for the return to two year terms for members of council. They feared the Dems would maintain majorities with 4 year terms and lock in support.  It appears, with neither group showing any sign of supporting candidates, that Dems got the same thing with two year terms.  That is jumping the gun, but we are on track for Dems winning a majority on council before a single vote is cast.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Mark Jeffreys *(D)
Scotty Johnson *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)
Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (C)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (I)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (I)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Richardo Hayward (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Kelley Cowdrey (R)
Gwendolyn Edogun (I)

Taken Out Petitions, But Do Not Appear to Live in the City
Sharetha Collier (I)
Andrew Kennedy (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election June 2023 Update

After a long delay, the Cincinnati Democratic Committee finally made its endorsements for Cincinnati City Council race. All eight sitting members were endorsed, along with first time candidate Anna Albi. Minor grumblings were present from a significant portion of precinct executives present at the media.  Those grumblings were both enhanced and amplified by the local media in attendance at the meeting. It never ceases to amaze me how "drama" can be whipped up into fodder for the local media. I was especially dismayed at the display of bias from the Cincinnati Enquirer's "reporter" Sharon Coolidge who embarrassed herself with her Opinion article about the meeting. The following exaggeration was built to stroke Suburban Republicans egos with a talk radio narrative their prejudice embraces.

Instead, the Cincinnati Democratic Committee meeting Tuesday night in an Evanston union hall went down like a reality show that could rival any 'Housewives' reunion on Bravo.

 Add that to a remarkable lack of understanding of Roberts Rules of Order by multiple reporters and participants in the meeting. I would hate to think what a reporting attending a nine member council meeting would do, when four members vote in favor of an ordinance, three vote against, and two abstain. The ordinance would pass. It is a fairly common function of most voting situations in all legislatures and or voting bodies within organizations. It made me think of a scene from All the Presidents Men (1976)

WOODWARD: Who's Charles Colson?

ROSENFELD: Sit Down. You know I’m glad you asked me that question. The reason I’m glad you asked me is because if you asked Simons or Bradley they would’ve said you know we’re going to have to fire this schmuck at once because he’s so dumb.

There are few would would get that reference, but that small group is my core audience!

The Democrats had ten possible candidates for the nine council spots.  They did not endorse Jamie Castle. News reports indicates she was considering not continuing her run.  I think the mere mention of this in multiple news articles would drastically hurt any campaign.

The lack of viable candidates in the race this year makes the possible outcomes of the last couple of seats open.  At this point there are at most 12 or 13 candidates who can muster the level of votes to win. The logical thing for non-Democrats and non-Republicans to do is get behind Jamie Castle and see how far they could take it. She has the signatures to be on the ballot. Someone like Michelle Dillingham should be running her campaign and to pull in the progressive/leftist support she has and see what moderate support she can pick up.  Instead of that, Michelle Dillingham took out petitions to run and teased via Tweet that she is thinking about running.  She didn't announce she was running, she teased that she might run.  I didn't see a big response to her Tweet. At this late date in the world of campaign fundraising, it is a foolish move to attempt it. Dillingham might better spend her time working to defeat Issue 1 this August, than wasting her time running for City Council. Ego is tough for an activist to look past.

Charter Committee seems to be thinking about the Rail Road, but not fielding any candidates for Council. They will certainly allow Liz Keating to slap a Charter label on her campaign, but we won't see much of them otherwise.

Republicans are just doing nothing. They have all but given up on fielding any candidates beyond Liz Keating who is running as a RINO, literally as a Republican in Name Only.  Keating will take GOP money, but is not run away from any Republican who would piss off Hyde Park Moderates. Saylor Park can just go fuck off for being Trumpistan. California (the neighborhood) can do the same with a small pond full of staunch Republican votes, but they are it, in the City. The rest of the County is drying up on knuckle dragging Troglodytes, but the County Party lives and dies on a weak Trumpist brand fascism, heaving on hollow red meat, to keep the foaming mouths from splitting the party.

The hot summer is upon us and I see little new to tilt the campaign beyond conventional wisdom. No candidates are making waves with any new ideas and no scandals seem to be breaking through, No matter how desperately the Enquirer and Suburban Republicans are to make it happen out of thing air.

The bet for the summer is OVER/UNDER on 15 as the number of candidates who are on the ballot for City Council in November.  As far as viable candidates, UNDER without any doubt. As far as total candidates, I would say OVER, but barely over 15.  What would it take it get sports betting to include political races in Ohio?  Would that increase turnout? Someone would call it corrupt and someone else would say it wouldn't make it any more corrupt than it already is, but odds are neither of those complainers would vote for City Council anyway.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Mark Jeffreys *(D)
Scotty Johnson *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)
Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (C)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (I)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (I)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Richardo Hayward (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Kelley Cowdrey (R)

Taken Out Petitions, But Do Not Appear to Live in the City
Sharetha Collier (I)
Andrew Kennedy (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election May 2023 Update

In 2017 we knew by the end of April who was endorsed as a Democratic Candidate for City Council. Prior to that they endorsed 10 candidates in 2013 and it was a mess. In 2021 there was pointless drama when the progressive wing wanted to endorse a candidate that attacked the party in favor of extremist policies. I don't have any foolish expectations that this year will be any different. With seven elected incumbents (and one appointed incumbent) the process should logically be different. The Hamilton County Democratic Party just this week published a notice that the Cincinnati Democratic Committee will be holding a meeting on May 25th to vote on the party endorsements. I've heard little chatter about this year's endorsement round, but there not many active non-incumbent candidates making much noise, so this election cycle everything has been near silence in public.    Last month the party published the notice of the endorsement processes and it included a key provision on candidate interviews, something I don't recall seeing before:

Candidates must have petition signatures submitted and reported as “Sufficient” by the Hamilton County Board of Elections staff before their endorsement interview.

 As of Friday evening there are only eight candidates with their petitions reported as sufficient. That includes only six incumbents of eight.  I don't know if the previously elected incumbents are required to be interviewed again. The notice was not specific on that point. The only appointed member of City Council, Seth Walsh, has turned his signatures in to the BOE.  There are only two non-incumbents with signatures submitted, Anna Albi and Jamie Caslte. Both are approved for the ballot.  That leaves two questions for the process: 1) Will all incumbents get endorsed and 2) Which of the two non-incumbents will get endorsed.  Of course it is possible that the answer to #1 is no and that makes the presumption that both non-incumbents would be endorsed. There is no indication that the Democratic Party has any intention to upend the process.  There are not any candidates that have any public negatives that would mean squandering the advantages of incumbency to the election. That leaves the endorsement choice between Castle and Albi. 

The Hamilton County Republican Party just updated their website this week to show the new chairman that was elected months ago.  They don't seem to want to bother with much promotion of their City Council candidate(s).  The local elections they are successful in Hamilton County are small monolithic areas that rarely have any actual competition. At this point if they had any candidates other than Liz Keating for Cincinnati City Council, that candidate would be campaigning in the City (at least online.)  I see no one other Republican candidates with a serious chance of getting elected in the City.

Charter Committee appears to be adrift.  There is no evidence of any candidates that will be on the ballot, except a likely cross endorsement of Republican Liz Keating. 2021 was terrible election for Charter. It was nothing short of a blood bath. I don't know what it will take for Charter to get back on its feet.  There is at least one person on the Charter Board who is not going to help bring them back from the brink. If anything this person is going to drive them off the deep end into permanent oblivion.

Here are the 26 candidates who have taken out petitions so far. I would be surprised if any other credible candidates take out petitions and I would not be surprised that only 15-18 candidates actually make the ballot.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)
Reggie Harris (D)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Mark Jeffreys (D)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R,C)
Seth Walsh (D)

Taken Out Petitions
Anna Albi (D)
Jamie Castle (I)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
James Jenkins (C)
Andrew Kennedy (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Catherine Botos (D)
Rufus Bowman III (I)
Audricia Brooks (D)
Lawrence Brzezinski II (I)
Sharetha Collier (D)
Kaitlin Estill (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Boyd Miller (R)
William Moore (I)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Quentin Taylor (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election April 2023 Update

Not sure about you, but if I didn't know better, I would think we are still a year or more away from the next Cincinnati City Council Election. In reality, the deadline to turn in petitions to get on the ballot for the election is a mere four and a half months away.

That means campaigns, any serious campaign, should be in high gear. At this point, I don't see any campaign in high gear. Sure, the incumbents are in the news, but campaigning seems to be quiet.  The main reason for this is likely the overwhelming victory of the Democratic Party in the last election (2021.)  Nothing seems to be happening from any other group to challenge them. The Republicans seem to be settling for a single seat, which they are only hanging on to because Republican Liz Keating has taken very moderate stances while in office and campaigning.  

The Charter Committee seems to be either dead or has gone into indefinite hibernation.  They have no coherent message message to offer, other than being the party that will cross endorse candidates and the only value there is that a few more donors will contribute to a moderated Republican candidate (like Keating).

That leaves only two questions at this point for the November election. 1) Who will get the 9th Democratic Party Endorsement and 2) Will Michelle Dillingham run for office?

The answer to #1 seems to be lining up for Jamie Castle.  At this point, there are no other experienced and credible Democrats who have taken out petitions to get on the ballot.  Those nominations should be made very soon.

The answer to #2 on the surface seems like no, Michelle Dillingham is not running for City Council.  Her campaign website is gone and since she and her supporters really poorly handled the process to appoint a replacement for Greg Landsman's seat late last year, her electability has not improved. If she still wants to get on council it might be a good idea to sit out a cycle or two and wait for some term limits to come into play or other churn on council to open up more seats and gamble that people will forget how her history of needlessly confrontational campaigning and social media discourse would be a sign that she would not be good at governing and is more of just an activist, with the goal of gaining attention for a cause.

Does that leave us with a race only for ninth place?  Is this a Liz Keating v Jamie Castle race?  OR will Liz climb higher in the results as the only Republican candidate?  Republicans are just fading away in both the City and Hamilton County, but low voter turnout has traditionally been beneficial to Republican candidates. At this point there is nothing point to anything other than a conventional wisdom election.

I am sure leftists will ache and moan about something, while they continue to fail to create a viable governing strategy. Instead they will continue to push a puritanical socialist agenda that has so far produced nothing but losing campaigns.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)

Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)

Mark Jeffreys *(D)

Scotty Johnson *(D)

Seth Walsh *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Jamie Castle (D)

Andrew Kennedy (I?)

Boyd Miller (R)

Stephan Pryor (?)

LaKeisha N. Cook (D) 

James K. Jenkins (I?)

Catherine Botos (?)
Rufus Bowman (?)
Audricia Brooks (?)
Lawrence Brzezinski (?)
Linda Matthews (R)
Boyd Miller (?)
Quentin Taylor (?)

Maybe Could Still Run?
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Jackie Frondorf (D,C)
Alyson Steele Beridon (D)
Brian Garry (D)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Elections are Less Than One Year Away

November 7, 2023 is Election Day in the City of Cincinnati and all nine seats on City Council are up for election.  In case you forgot, City Council terms are two years, again, so we are back at it again in less than 12 months.  What, you are not excited?  You don't want to follow along with the fringe candidates that have chance to win, but scream the loudest about what ever odd causes they push?

2021's election established that the Democratic Party has a lot of support in the City and that earned them eight of nine of the seats.  Anyone looking to get elected will have to find a way to counter the overwhelming dominance of the Dems. The logical conclusion is that few strong candidates will make a run.  There could still be some movement at the lower ranks, including the lone Republican on Council, but with the power of the Democratic Party at this point, no one would be betting against the Dems keep a veto proof majority on council.

With Greg Landsman leaving soon for Washington as the next Congressman for the Ohio First District, another person will fill one of those eight.  The process to pick the replacement candidate will be run by Council Member Reggie Harris, with an application for those interested in the appointment on his council webpage, which are due by end of day Sunday 11/27/2022.

At this point little is definitely known about who is actually going to run. It is reasonable that all incumbents will be running, along with who ever is appointed to fill Landsman's seat. WVXU's Becca Costello reported on Twitter that two current members of council have pulled petitions to run for Council, Keating and Owens.  Four others also have already pulled petitions to get on the ballot (see below.)

With that in mind, here is a list of the incumbents, those with petitions out, those who have been speculated to be possible appointees, and my list of prior candidates who might run again.

Incumbents
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Meeka Owens *(D)
Victoria Parks *(D)
Liz Keating *(R,C)

Jeff Cramerding *(D)
Reggie Harris *(D)

Mark Jeffreys *(D)

Scotty Johnson *(D)

Taken Out Petitions
Andrew Kennedy (I?)
Seth Walsh (D)

Boyd Miller (R)

Stephan Pryor (?)

Getting Attention for Appointment to Greg Landsman's Seat
Jamie Castle (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Jackie Frondorf (D,C)
Alyson Steele Beridon (D)
(Also Seth Walsh)

Maybe Will Run Again?

Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
LaKeisha N. Cook (D) 

Galen Gordon (C)
Rob Harris (D)
K. Heard (G)
Evan Holt (DSA)
Nick Jabin (I)
John Maher (I)
Phillip O'Neal (D)
Logan-Peter Simmering (G)
John Williams (D)
Robert Adler (I)
Jalen Alford (D)
James K. Jenkins (I?)


Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Hamilton County Voter Turnout by Generation in the 2022 General Election

Turnout in the Hamilton County Overall was down from 2018.  Here is the generational breakdown of the turnout by generation in the County, the City, and the non-City portion of the county in the 2022 General Election.

These numbers are up a bit from the final election night totals.  I pulled them from the Voter registration lists which have been updated with references to those who have voted. These are not official totals.  I presume the increase is due to additional mail in vote arriving and with the provisional votes.  The increase in the number of votes was 8,025 for the full county.  The data I am using is not "official" yet.  The Hamilton County BOE meets today to approve the provisional ballots and certify the results.

2018 overall turnout in Hamilton County was 57.52%.  I unfortunately do not have the same voter file data from 2018 saved to get a full comparison. I do have a comparison of 2020, 2021 and 2022.  This data is more difficult to compare year to year, as turnout has the variation between Presidential, Local, and MidTerm elections. To make up for that I added a measurement of Share of votes to the Share of Registered voters.  This is a totally made up ratio I created, but there are a couple interesting things:

The key takeaways: Gen Z (Zoomers) continues to underperform.  Their share of Registered voters Increased over 2020, which is just based natural aging (turning 18).  The rest of the generations either decreased or remained relatively even (Milliennials had a slight increase.)  Gen Z's share of votes dropped.  Their share of registered voters increased more than any other Generation, but they could not increase their share of votes.  This is insane because that means brand new Gen Z kids took the time to register, but didn't bother to vote.

This failure to vote by Gen Z in HamCo stands out from other reports in other states.  Many are attempting to praise younger voters for participating.  Well, I'm going to dismiss that participation trophy, because they didn't show up. No better can you see where the apathy, ignorance, and misinformation have taken the toll are on the Newly Registered Voters.  In 2022 here are the stats by generation of those with a Registration date in 2022:

5,461 members of Gen Z registered to vote in 2022, but failed to show up and vote in the general election.  That is 56.89% who took time to register to vote this year, but didn't bother to vote.  That is pathetic.  Millennials were on their heals in numbers, but managed to beat out Gen-X on the rate.  No Generation was great on this stat, which demonstrates that outreach to new registrations is something that needs to happen to get people to the polls.

We need to improve voter turnout and you can't just blame it on other people, those who get registered and don't vote are the ONLY people I am referencing in all of the stats I have put forth here.  Targeting that group is the key to change.  There is not a single way to improve it.  Many steps can be taken:  A national holiday on election day, improved education, improved outreach, better information and less disinformation.  More early voting, easier ways to update your registration and easier ways to update your address on your State ID or Driver's License also will help. None of those alone will do more than individuals getting off their assesses and going to vote EVERY election.

How Greg Landsman Defeated Steve Chabot in the Ohio 1st Congressional District

I am sure there are political journalists who will have a few thousands words describing how Greg Landsman defeated Steve Chabot in the Ohio 1st Congressional District.  I can sum it up much quicker. First with a chart:

My take on these numbers is broken down into four reasons why Landsman won:

1. In the City Landsman was able to increase the Democratic result compared to both 2018 and 2020. This blunted the 9.5% drop in turnout compared to 2018.
2. The Eastern Hamilton County suburb's Democratic support grew significantly. The chart above shows a narrow loss, but in 2020 and 2018, the Republican candidate got 56% and 55% respectively.  Chabot being a new candidate to most of this portion of the county was one cause for the loss of support for the Republican.  The likely bigger factor is the Republican brand is more and more that of extremism and anti-women. Chabot did nothing to defuse that image. Turnout here matched to Warren County.
3. Warren County turnout dropped ~5% from 2018 and the Democrats picked up a point or two on the results. Warren County has pockets of variation, but is largely a monolith.
4. Not having a Third Party Candidate made the choice clear and gave the anti-Chabot vote a place to go. This vote could account for the increases is the spread for Landsman in the City and Warren county.  It would be less apparent in the Eastern Suburbs, when as part of OH-2 those areas did not have third party competition.

The above numbers are unofficial.  As of this morning there are still thousands of outstanding absentee ballots that could come in and be counted.  Also there over 8K provisional ballots in Hamilton County and 1,800 in Warren County that will be reviewed.  These additional votes will not affect the final result, just maybe the spread.

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Local Cincinnati Area Races to Follow on Election Night

Beyond turnout in Hamilton County, there are several local elections to follow this Tuesday on Election Night that I will be intently watching.  Not all of these will be nail biting cliffhangers, but they will have elements and details that can give evidence on how 21st century politics are working here in Hamilton County, Ohio.

1. OH-1 Landsman (D) vs. Chabot (R): This is of course the most interesting race in the area.  This Republican gerrymandered district is in violation of the Ohio Constitution, but in the effort to hide their power grab they made this district very close to a Toss-up.  Republicans claim this is a Dem+2 district, but that is just not true.  This is at best maybe a Dem+.05 based on historical results.  The strong Conservative Western HamCo was replaced with the more moderated Eastern HamCo and ALL of the City.  This gives an advantage to the Dem, but that advantages assumes people vote in reasonable numbers.  If turnout is strong, close to that of 2018, this should be a narrow win for the Dem.  However, since this is such a closely divided district, a small shift in turnout could make it an even narrower win for the Republican.  This race could go late into night without a declared winner, but the writing could be on the wall as the suburbs should report earlier than the city proper.
2. Hamilton County Commissioner Dumas (D) vs Smitherman vs O'Neill (R):  This race is going to be very interesting, but not because there is much doubt as to who will win.  With a Three-Way race, the Democratic candidate should be able to win.  The interesting part will be how the two Republican candidates, Smitherman and O'Neill perform.  Only one will be marked as a Republican and that is what makes this case interesting.  Will Party ID be enough for O'Neill to get 2nd place or will Smitherman's targeted marketing work to get a large number of Republican voters for him to get 2nd place.  Also, the other situation to watch, will it be a close 1-2 race and distant 3rd or will the 2nd and 3rd each get larger chunks.  There will have to be a complete disaster in HamCo for Dems to lose this race, that is not impossible, however there is no local evidence to suggests that Dems turnout has cratered.  The Dem candidate likely won't get over 50%, but it would be somewhat surprising for either Republican to break 40%. Also, I will be watching this race since I am hoping Smitherman loses big time and this becomes the last we see of him in local politics.
3. Hamilton County Auditor: Brigid Kelly (D) vs. Tom Brinkman (R):  Tom Brinkman is someone everyone should find it easy to root against.  He's a hardcore right wing fascist and has been way longer than the Trumpists were even a glint in Steve Bannon's eye.  Brinkman does not appear to have much of a ground campaign going.  Like his failed campaign for Cincinnati City Council last year, he appears to be phoning it in.  I'd surmise he ran just in case there was some 100 year flood of a Republican wave in Hamilton County.  He's not likely to see that this Tuesday and is running against a very organized and solid Dem candidate.  In this race I'm interested in how much it goes with the partisan breakdown like other races or does it stand out.
4. Hamilton County Clerk of Courts: Pavan Parikh (D) vs. Steven Goodin (R):Among the county wide offices on the ballot in 2022, this one could be the most competitive, at least on paper.  Goodin has a broader appeal and name recognition in the City and amongst moderates. Parikh has the incumbency advantage, but as an appointee, having not been elected before.  Goodin ran for Cincinnati City Council last fall and did not place well (14th). Steve Goodin is capable of running a centrist race, but he's gone instead with a confrontational race, picking Social Media fights and going negative suggesting controversies. Parikh is running with the Democratic slate and as a team, that unit did amazingly well in the City in 2021.  If it carries into the county as well, he should do well.

I have strong feeling, "vibes" as the term has been used this cycle among the political junkie crowd, about this year's election.  I can't tell you anything valuable about the statewide races or how the Congressional races will add up.  Locally, however, I feel like there is NOT going to be a big "Republican Wave."  Locally that would mean Republican turnout surges and Democratic Turnout reduces.  I would easily bet a $100 that it won't happen.  Without that Red Wave, Republicans only have a couple of seats in the county that are close enough and divided up enough to win, assuming turnout "vibes."

On election night, the thing to watch is what I call the "Flop."  That's the first output by the Board of Elections that shows the votes from Absentee/Early voting.  By that point, real-time Turnout should be published as well, so we'll be able to judge if Early Absentee/Early voting is going to be an indicator of the races or will it be segmented, like 2020, which means we'll have to see how vote starts to come in from election day to get the first writing on the wall moment to give an indication of how the night will go.  I'll be covering turnout all day on Tuesday, so look for a Blog post and social media posts with updates. Good luck to the candidates and be sure to vote!

Early and Absentee Voting Trends for Hamilton County Slightly Up on 2018 Rates, SO FAR...

Through Friday October 28, 2022 Hamilton County data, Early and Absentee Voting totals combined are up in comparison to 2018.  The increase, however, is small at .69% (less than 1%).  Early in person voting continues to be much higher 66.24% up, but mail in (drop off) absentee numbers are -11.8% down.

By political party all in person early voting rates are up, but surprisingly the rate increase for Republicans is by far the highest.  By Total number count, Republicans are still the lowest group of in person early voting.

With numbers fairly close to being flat to 2018, that is a concern for what total turnout will be in 2022.  The reason for that concern is that the portion of the early/absentee voters of ALL voters likely will NOT be the same to 2018.  After COVID the portion of people voting by mail increased.  That number is down.  In person early voting is way up.  That increase may be affected by COVID on a small level, but more likely the increase relates to the convenience factor or those who have a 2020 holdover fear of making sure their votes counts. I don't think the making sure you vote count factor is a big deal, by any stretch.  I don't think it ever was.  I believe the reason early in person voting is up is because those with cars find it easy to vote early.  Those without cars and who use the bus lines and are dedicated to voting can make it happen.  The question is are those voting early those who wouldn't have voted otherwise? 

The only hard data I have to answer that question is: 16.2% of the votes cast thus far are by people who didn't vote in 2018, at least not here.  Only 5.5% of votes cast thus far are from people who did not vote in 2020.  Can we draw any conclusions from that?  I think the main take away so far is that the new registrations and new voters have not yet turned out in comparable numbers to the regular and highly consistent voters. A second take away is that overall Democratic party turnout is up, Republican and Non-Party turnout is down on the Early/Abs voting overall.  There are two reasons I can see making this true: 1) More Republicans being against mail voting or 2) Are deaths of older people reduced demographically the number of Republican voters who voted in 2018 via absentee mail?

Today (Saturday 10/29/2022) is the first day of weekend in person voting and will be one of days that is key for early turnout.  The expectation is that the volume would greatly exceed both the average daily number of in person voters, 1,029 and the correspond 1,708 voters on the first day of early voting in 2018. I think for turnout to be higher this year, we need to see a big day of something approaching 3,000 in person early voters.  We would then need more next weekend, which has Saturday voting and Sunday Afternoon voting during the final weekend before the election.