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| Data is from the Hamilton County BOE |
Saturday, October 24, 2026
HamCo Early Vote Data Is Postivie for Democrats
Saturday, October 17, 2026
The MidTerms Matter, Vote for Democary or You are the Fool
I am still here! Well, “here” is a debatable term, none-the-less I am writing a short blog post about the MidTerm Election. It matters to Cincinnati who wins. We need a functioning government and we don’t have one at the Federal level and if a Republican returns to the Ohio governorship, we’ll be nonfunctional in Ohio as well. The only way we get at least part the government functioning at a basic level is by electing the Democratic candidates.
Yes, the only way to support a functional democratic government in Ohio and across the United States is by voting for Democrats. Top to bottom. Every race, figure out who the Democrats are and vote for them. I do not care if you are pissed about some fucking cause or issue. Swallow you crap and vote out the Republicans. Democracy is at stake.
The Republcian Party is mostly responsible for Trump and 100% reponsible for letting him act without doing their offical duty as they hold power in the other branches of the Federal Government. The Republican Party must be held accountable for what it has done and will continue to do. Top to Bottom. There is no escaping it. There is no one running for elected office NOW as a Republican who is not complicit with the Trump Regigme. Let me reiterate: EVERY REPUBLICAN RUNNING FOR OFFICE IS COMPLICIT WITH THE TRUMP REGIME.
Yes, if you voted for Trump at any point (especially in 2024) you are a fucking fool. You can now vote to oppose fascism and vote for the Demoratic candidate.
Yes, if you are a whining DSA activist that thinks the world will change if you hold your breath like a child, you are a fucking fool. You can now vote to oppose fascism and vote for the Demoratic candidate.
If you are offended becuase I called you a fucking fool, I don't care about you feelings. I care about maintaining a democracy in the United States. The ONLY way to do that is by voting for Democats in the MidTerms. No, there is no other option.
Once we rid ourselves of Trump, we can get out the knives and go at it. The fucking fools will have more to answer for than those who voted against Trump and did not attack his enemies out of spite. Until then, if you support Democracy, vote for the Democrat. If you can't do that, then don't vote for the Republican and don't support a third party if a Democrat is running, that is just back handed Republican support. Be a grown up and do what must be done.
Saturday, November 08, 2025
Observations of the 2025 Cincinnati Election Cycle - Democratic Party Domination Edition
The 2025 Cincinnati Elections were historic dominating victories for the Democratic Party. The wins came in the City Council and Mayoral races. I must admit I was astonished by the Council election massive victory. Let me just repeat that: MASSIVE VICTORY. Based on the unofficial final results the 10th place finisher, Republican Liz Keating, was 9,163 votes away from a seat on council. That is far greater than both 2021 and 2023. It is 2.4 times greater than the largest victory since 1989 (which was in 2023 when Keating lost previously.)
The 11th place loser, Republican Chris Smitherman, was far worse. He was 16,194 votes behind the 9th place Democratic winner, Ryan James. Smitherman phoned in his campaign and tried to rely on name recognition and quiet Republican donations. Smitherman was beat in most of the predominantly black neighborhoods by former council member Laketa Cole who finished 12th. The only reason Smitherman did better than Charter endorsed Cole was because he got Republican support.
I hope this marks the end of Smitherman's political hopes in the City of Cincinnati and Hamilton County. He has been soundly defeated and his Trumpist views and supporters certainly have destroyed the support he thought he still had.
Smitherman fell victim to two things: 1) a foolish belief that Cincinnati is the same as it was in 2013-2017 and 2) an arrogance fueled ego. The latter is one of his many flaws, but the foolish belief about Cincinnati was shared by many, many Republicans, Charterites, and Moderates. They still think that West Price Hill and Westwood have some hidden Republican gold plated votes that could be driven out if just the right levels of fear, panic, and racism were floated into the news media.
The way that both the Republicans and the Charter Party pushed the false stories about crime in Cincinnati was despicable. Video footage of white people being assaulted by black people got the racist views of suburban and rural zealots out into social media from all over the Tri-State area and nationally. I still enjoying thinking about how many ignorant dolts thought they could vote for Mayor of Cincinnati while living in Green Township or Butler County.
Cincinnati's local news media continues to show it does not serve the community. Drama and conflict drove much of the coverage of the election, so any time they can get a national audience, they fluffed up the story to get more eyeballs. Additionally, I feel there is a clear bias against the local Democratic Party. There are those with ideological biases, but that is not the core failure that occurred. The first failure was in how local media was manipulated by the Republicans and Charterites. The media allowed itself to be suckered into a small group of NIMBYs in Hyde Park that were organized and funded, but did not represent big groups. This was obviously after the Mayoral Primary in May, but they continued to allow the group, a political front for Republicans and their Charter Party Proxies, to have an elevated status with automatic access to coverage and time. This was reused over the summer as Republicans/Charter were able to get news articles pushing their agenda published repeatedly. All the while, the Dems were painted as the problem, without equal access and treatment.
The other main failure of the local media is in the desire to have non-Democrats on City Council. There are members of the local media who are bored and were hoping one or two non-Dems were elected and provide opportunities for Grandstanding and conflict to arise. This comes in the form of the accepted opinion within the media that one party government is bad and should not occur. They will spout this opinion, presented as fact, all the while ignoring the super majority of Republicans running the State of Ohio. This is on top of the varied other cities, villages, townships and other counties that have and have had Republican single party governments for decades. For Cincinnati it is somehow bad and worth pontificating on, but when Republicans do it, we don't get a peep about it. This is the same type of bias against Democrats on a national level. Democrats are expected to live up to altruistic ideals while Republicans break laws, ethics, and every norm established, but are not expected to be good, so we get a shrug. This attitude runs down to local politics as well.
Another fact that every member of media knew: Corey Bowman was NEVER a serious candidate for Mayor, but we were treated to him as a credible candidate for months. Only at the end of the campaign did we get coverage of his business tax problems. The magical story about an alleged shooting of a window at his church which with a wave a wand and little hocus pocus vanished from the discourse without any follow-up story with the campaign answering questions about the clearly fishy story.
It was also very disappointing to see more than one local opinion writer shrug off this monumental Dem win as just a reaction to Trump. That is more bias. Keating and Smitherman lost big time, so the reason they picked was Trump. The Democratic Party worked hard. Local people voted against the Republican Party and what the Republican candidates were doing. Keating and Smitherman both were falsely overstating crime as the center of a panic and fear platform. There were no substantive issues they professed in their last minute opportunity to exploit crime campaigns. There ONLY issue was to be against the Democratic Party. They were playing to the worst of the Republican/Conservative mindset, but they get a pass because they are liked by the local media. I don't know what they will tell those who want to get into power in the City at this point. I fear it will be to just follow along with a Trump brand Fascism that will get pushed by a Republican Governor that will seek revenge on Cites that do not bend the knee to the Republican's and their minions.
Speaking of minions, I am going to close out this blog post with a giant FUCK YOU to John Cranley and his action against the Cincinnati Democratic Party with his support of Chris Smitherman. Cranley should be ashamed for supporting the Republican. I hope Cranley remains in the private sector and if he wants to jump ship to the Trump Party, I do not think he will be missed.
Tuesday, November 04, 2025
Cincinnati Election Day is Here
The polls open soon and I am up bright and early. I will be pulling live turnout data from the Hamilton County BOE website today and parsing the City proper rates throughout the day.
If you want to do this your self, you can do so here.
Early look indicates a higher Absentee/Early vote turnout as compared to 2021. Nothing will approach turnout in 2023, which was fuel by the abortion ballot issue that year. Final turnout in 2021 was just under 25%. The increase in Absentee/Early vote is noticeable, 7.08% this year, with more to come, vs 6.18% in 2021. If you use the straight increase rate, then turnout could be 28.5% this year. I would expect that the increase will not be that high. Early votes totals are fickle and only one indication of turnout.
Sunday, November 02, 2025
Observations of the 2025 Cincinnati Election Cycle - Pre-Election Edition
We are in the home stretch of the City of Cincinnati Mayoral and Council elections. I have some observations that I have made and figured I share. No Earth shattering news at this point, which is what I expected and unless you are a fool that is what you should have expect too.
- The Mayoral Election is not in doubt. This is most clear when the Republican challenger put his home up for sale and changed the mailing address to a Downtown apartment. I would be surprised to find out that the candidate’s wife and kids live there. I instead suspect they are living somewhere else, outside of the City, and the Republican candidate will join them officially after the election is over.
- The City Council race for control of council is still nearly a lock for the Democratic Party. The only question is will they win 6, 7,8, or 9 seats. Depending on the number of seats that means how many non-Democrats will be in the mix for the 2026 Charlie Winburn Grandstander of the Year award. That contest will be a hot one, depending on who gets elected.
- The local news media is just terrible. They could not have done much more to create drama and controversy during this election cycle. Republicans put bait in the water and they bit HARD and decided to become fishers of drama themselves. It is embarrassing to anyone who is involved in journalism. Drama is not journalism, drama is entertainment. The local news media took this concept over the edge this cycle and allowed that drama to be a political tool for Republicans and their proxies. Crime exists, but it is not significantly different than it has been the last few years. There is not a "Crisis" here and saying that is a total lie (yes, Liz Keating is lying on her commercials.) Local media allowed lies to be told about the City and they should be ashamed. They unfortunately do not care about facts, just appeasing their suburban/rural audience and the Republican Party. We did not get any discussion about issues that could (or will) be addressed by the next City Council. We just got entertainment all summer right up to this week's regurgitation of the summer's entertainment. Social media is not a good source for the news media, but since they don't bother gathering news (beyond checking their inbox and DM notifications), we get tripe.
- People are so incredibly ignorant about politics and basic government structure. There are people that live outside the City of Cincinnati and outside of Hamilton County that think they can vote for Cincinnati Mayor. There are also people that think a Trumpist candidate can win in the City of Cincinnati. These people should not be making public comments anywhere. It is a waste of their time, but more importantly a waste for anyone who read those comments.
Sunday, August 31, 2025
Cincinnati City Council Election: August 2025 Update
Anna Albi (D*‡)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D*‡)
Jeff Cramerding (D*‡)
Mark Jeffreys (D*‡)
Meeka Owens (D*)
Scotty Johnson (D*‡
Seth Walsh (D*‡)
Evan Nolan (D*‡)
Ryan James (D‡)
Aaron Weiner (C‡)
Laketa Cole (C‡)
Raffel Prophett (I‡)
Christopher Smitherman (R?‡)
Liz Keating (R,C?‡)
Steven Goodin (C‡)
Donald Driehaus (C‡)
Dale Mallory (I‡)
Dawn Johnson (C‡)
Linda Matthews (R‡)
Gary Favors (R‡)
Audricia Brooks (I‡)
Donald Washington (I‡)
Jerry Corbett (I‡)
Kevin Farmer (I‡)
Brandon Nixon (I‡)
Stephan Pryor (I‡)
Gwen Summers (I-Write-In)
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (Petitions Sufficient)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me.
Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Cincinnati City Council Election: July 2025 Update
In the Summer my motivation to write about politics does not normally find a good footing. I was not sure that I was going to even write an update for July. This month made something clear to me. I have been observing and writing about Cincinnati Politics for a long time, over twenty years. There are not many politicians that I find more repulsive than Steve Goodin. I mean there are far worse human beings that has been involved in Cincinnati Politics than Goodin, but as far as being a Politician, Goodin is amongst the most dastardly I have seen run. Give him a mustache he could twirl and he would personify the cartoon character Dick Dastardly.
As I have commented before, the Charter Committee is dead and Goodin, like a straight-to-video Dr. Frankenstein, has hooked up the remains of Charter to the battery of a rusty 1988 Chevy Cavalier with GOP stenciled on the side. What has been reborn is the Charter Party and it is just recycled Republicanism. Steve must be nostalgic for the 20th Century Republican Party as he leads his party down the tropes that harken back to second and third wave white flight. Over the weekend videos of an incident outside of a club drew national attention amongst Republicans, Conservative media, and local news outlets looking for clickbait. This manufactured outrage is what I consider a modern day lynch mob. Republicans perceive black on white crime and Vance's half brother needs better fundraising from the fascist crowd and we get viral bullshit. Charter Party's Facebook page was quick to post on it:
This reads like Republican anti-City dogma from 2001. I would have expected suburbanites like Chris Monzel, Pat DeWine, Brad Wenstrup, any one of hacks from COAST, or talk radio circus clown Willie Cunningham to push this type of crap, not Charter. This tripe is disgusting. There is no transparency to it, it is just Goodin pulling out the typical Republican anti-city dogma. Fearing Downtown because black people live there is the undertone. He'll scream bloody murder for me pointing out the obvious, but that is what has driven the attention to this crime, racism. That is why it got national attention: White people were perceived to have been hurt by black people. Republicans from all over the Suburban and Exurban and Rural parts of the metro area jumped on the story - after been lead there by the Conservative news media the racially charged algorithms.On a side note: Steve also went to the length of blocking my Cincinnati Blog Facebook page from viewing the Charter Facebook page. I've been blocked by people before and I block people as well, for cause. This blog post is the most critical I've been on Goodin and Charter to date. I don't get why he would do that, but it fairly petty and pointless to block me. I guess he does not like critical comments and didn't want to keep having to delete mine. Oh, well, Charter Party is no longer about Transparency, so why bother being open to the public at all?
Next month petitions are due. There is still not much to shake up the race. Charter Party is so late to the game. They do not have strong candidates and Charter has a weak organization. I guess they could try and get Republicans to support them, but the other four Charter Party candidates are not big in Republican circles. I think Republican Party might endorse one or two more, beyond Goodin, but they will not be strong candidates at all.
By the end of August the candidates who will be on the ballot should be set. I hope the circus from this weekend got as much of that nonsense out of the election's system. The local news media should be embarrassed by giving it as much attention as it did, but tabloid clickbait is number one choice of local news.
Here are the current listing of candidates. 22 or 23 candidates would be a likely number to get on the ballot. Any one else who gets on are set up to be more also ran candidates.
Anna Albi (D)‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)‡
Scotty Johnson (D)‡
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)‡
Meeka Owens (D)‡
Seth Walsh (D)‡
Ryan James (D)‡
Evan Nolan (D)‡
Laketa Cole (C)‡
Donald Driehaus (C)
Steven Goodin (R,C)
Dawn Johnson (C)
Sol Kersey (DSA)
Raffel Prophett (D)‡
Aaron Weiner (C)‡
Thomas Chandler (R)
Jerry Corbett (I)‡
Kevin Farmer (R)‡
Gary Favors (R) ‡
Linda Matthews (R)
William Moore (I)
Michael Patton (R)
Donald Washington (I)‡
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Autumn Hall (I)
Ryan Holbrook (I)
Travis Johnson (I)
John Maher (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Brandon Nixon (R)
Benjamin Press (I)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Bart Rosenberg (I)
Gwen Summers (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Ozie Davis III (I)
Dale Mallory (I)
Sharetha Collier (I) is also listed as having taken out petitions, but the address listed is in Woodlawn, outside of the City Limits. Additionally the person who has been registered to vote with the same name/address is no longer listed under that name on Hamilton County's voter registration list I have as July 19,2025. I will monitor the list to see if anything changes.
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (Petitions Sufficient)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.
Thursday, June 26, 2025
Cincinnati City Council Election: June 2025 Update
Republicans don't make their proceedings public. We don't know if they will directly endorse any candidates at all. So far there is only one known Republican Candidate who will be on ballot, but as he is an unknown, it is not clear if the Republicans will even endorse him.
The Republican Party does have another new route to take: The Charter Party. I am calling the Charter Committee the Charter Party at this point because their newish leadership is treating it 100% like a Conservative political party in tone and tactics. It is my contention that the Charter Party is just a Republican front and as the campaign season does one I see more and more evidence to support my contention. The names I see working on the Charter Party's efforts are filled with Republicans. The Hyde Park NIMBY movement has Republican DNA and names all over it. These Republicans come across as those who have willingly accepted Trump to run their party. They think by not publicly opposing Trump they don’t join in the complicity of the fascist actions the rest of the party embraces. They are contemptible.
With the quiet take over by Republicans, the most damaging optics for the Charter Party is in its lack of transparency. There used to be a listing on their website of who ran Charter, its board. Since they changed the mailing address to Mt. Adams in a building linked to a Bortz company, there is no list of names to demonstrate who is running Charter. We have no clue what their endorsement process entails. We got a Facebook post claiming a candidate was endorsed. We don't know if any other candidates were considered. That candidate's campaign effort has many Republicans as key supporters. I don't know much about the candidate, but the impression I would make of him indicates he would NOT be a candidate that Republicans would support. I guess at this point, anyone without a Dem endorsement could be someone Charter/Republicans grasp on to in a desperate attempt to gain a little power. Another candidate is also reported to be getting a promised endorsement per the Enquirer, but I've not yet seen a Facebook post with that news. No process to support that other than the claim by the purported leader of Charter, Republican Steve Goodin.
Something everyone in Cincinnati needs to understand: the Charter Committee is dead. All that remains is the Charter Party, brought to you by a segment of Republicans.
At this point in the campaign 12 candidates have their petitions approved and will be on the November ballot, presuming they don't withdraw. That means at this point, the Democratic Party will retain a veto proof majority on Council, with a minimum of six candidates, if nothing changes. None of the three non-Dem-endorsed candidates have a campaign that would be favored to beat any of the Democrats. There are no other names who have taken out petitions that have a campaign that so far would be a big challenge. There are possible ways that some candidates could win, but those possibilities are problematic.
Anna Albi (D*‡)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D*‡)
Jeff Cramerding (D*‡)
Mark Jeffreys (D*‡)
Meeka Owens (D*‡)
Scotty Johnson (D*‡)
Seth Walsh (D*‡)
Evan Nolan (D*‡)
Ryan James (D‡)
Aaron Weiner (C)
Donald Driehaus (C?)
Jerry Corbett (I‡)
Kevin Farmer (R‡)
Linda Matthews (R)
Raffel Prophett (D‡)
Sol Kersey (D)
Laketa Cole (D)
Michael Patton (R)
Thomas Chandler (R)
William Moore (I)
Autumn Hall (I)
Bart Rosenberg (D)
Brandon Nixon (R)
Dawn Johnson (I)
Donald Washington (I)
Gwen Summers (I)
John Maher (I)
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Ryan Holbrook (I)
Sheila Andrews (I)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Ozie Davis III (D)
Sharetha Collier (I) is also listed as having taken out petitions, but the address listed is in Woodlawn, outside of the City Limits. Additionally the person who has been registered to vote with the same name/address is no longer listed under that name on Hamilton County's voter registration list I have as June 24,2025. I will monitor the list to see if anything changes.
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (Petitions Sufficient)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.
Monday, May 26, 2025
Cincinnati City Council Election May 2025 Update
We are not seeing any sign of the Charter Committee doing anything directly for the City Council Election. The Republicans who are now running Charter Committee have picked Hyde Park as a pet project. They are the likely funders and facilitators of the effort to get the Hyde Park initiative on the ballot. 18K signatures are not collected without having either money to pay for workers or having a large organization with big reach. Charter does not have any type of large group of supporters to tap into. That leaves paying for workers. Charter is no longer a group that supports transparency, they are just lead by a yet another Republican who is running them like the Republican Party. Charter of the past would never have gotten this involved with this type of effort. The Charter of the past would have been transparent. Charter is Dead. What is left over is a rump of Republicans.
It is astonishing to me how much effort is going in to manufacture political conflict in the City. Whether it is an unserious nepo mayoral candidate being fielded by the Republicans or local news media making a mountain out of few squeaky wheels in Hyde Park, Drama is what we are fed. I continue to write this blog as a way to do two things: provide information and voice my opinion. I don't push drama. The Hyde Park development issue is way overblown. There is no high stakes on this. This is ONLY about a privileged segment of a wealthy neighborhood (not even most of the neighborhood) that have the ear of local news media and the Charter Committee and Republican Party. No other neighborhood in the city could get this type of attention for a minor issue that will overall not affect many. It is a sad state that the Charter Committee is using this to gain relevance. When they fail, the organization should dissolve. Either the Republican Party should do something or local conservatives should just form some type of party.
Incumbants
Anna Albi (D*)‡
Jeff Cramerding (D*)
Mark Jeffreys (D*)
Scotty Johnson (D*)‡
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D*)‡
Evan Nolan (D*)‡
Meeka Owens (D*)‡
Seth Walsh (D*)‡
Challengers With Something
Sol Kersey (D)
Raffel Prophett (D)‡
Laketa Cole (D)
Ozie Davis III (D)
Gary Favors (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Other Candidates
Audricia Brooks (D)
Thomas Chandler (R)
Jerry Corbett (I)‡
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Kevin Farmer (R)
Autumn Hall (I)
Ryan Holbrook (I)
Ryan James (I)‡
John Maher (I)
Ned Measel (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
William Moore (I)
Brandon Nixon (R)
Michael Patton (R)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Bart Rosenberg (D)
Gwen Summers (I)
Quentin Taylor (I)
Aaron Weiner (I)
Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (Peititions Sufficient)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.
Saturday, February 22, 2025
Cincinnati City Council Election February 2025 Update
Jeff Cramerding (D)*
Mark Jeffreys (D)*
Scotty Johnson (D)*
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*
Evan Nolan (D)*
Meeka Owens (D)*
Seth Walsh (D)*
Laketa Cole (D)
Jerry Corbett (I)
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Ozie Davis III (D)
Ryan James (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
William Moore (I)
Brandon Nixon (I)
Michael Patton (R)
Raffel Prophett (I)
Stephan Pryor (D)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Bart Rosenberg (D)
Gwen Summers (I)
Sharetha Collier (I) is also listed as having taken out petitions, but the address listed is in Woodlawn, outside of the City Limits. Additionally the person who has been registered to vote with the same name/address is no longer listed under that name on Hamilton County's voter registration list I have as of last month. I will monitor the lists to see if anything changes.
Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.
Saturday, February 08, 2025
News Media Continues to Fail Cincinnati
If you pay attention to Cincinnati politics, you should have seen the news articles about JD Vance’s half-brother running for Mayor of Cincinnati. Yes, I am annoyed by them. Sure, coverage of local politics is a positive, but this was not about local politics. This was about tapping into fame for audience share.
The local media did the usual bad job of reporting and just wrote puff pieces. They can not afford to offend Republicans, so they create press release articles that add nothing taking away from Vance’s brother’s obvious goal of getting attention.
For those living in the fake world of influencers, he is trying to build his brand.
He has virtually no chance to win the Mayoral election and likely has no honest interest in Cincinnati government. I doubt he knows a damn thing about the City. In 2023, the last City election, the guy didn’t even vote. This should be a disqualifying fact, but local media just was something to entertain the Butler and Warren county Republicans, so facts don’t matter, just the narrative they wants to build. If this guy cared about the City, he would be running for City Council and local journalists know this. Instead of dismissing this candidate, like the other unknowns running, they give him MORE attention and make it all positive. That is a failure.
On top of the bad local reporting, the national and International press pushed out the headlines on Vance’s brother as a way to get clicks. The majority of them do not know the political demographics of the City of Cincinnati and could not discern it from the Cincinnati MSA. It is sad that so many national "political journalists" ether did not bother to research the viability of a Republican running for Mayor in the City of Cincinnati. If they did, they would question this guy’s sincerity from the start. Another failure, this time from afar.
Monday, January 13, 2025
Cincinnati City Council Election January 2025 Update
Most of the names that are non-incumbents on the list of petition takers are new to me, so I don't know anything about them or their political leanings. There is one well known name included is Laketa Cole, a former member of City Council. This is a surprise because she had a very recent criminal conviction within the last few years. She has name recognition, but not all of that is good and she's been out of office since 2010 when she resigned for a state job. She did not last at State and was returned to City Employment by John Cranley. I would not expect a Party Endorsement, but there are Democrats who want a mess. The problem is that Cole has been aligned with the Cranley crowd, far more moderate than progressive wing of the party that likes to attack the Democratic Party from within almost as much as Republicans like to do from the outside. I can see yet another nasty endorsement process. There is no good reason that process is made public.
Yes, we also have a Mayoral election this year as well. At this point there are six people who have taken out petitions for the May Primary, including current Mayor Aftab Pureval. If less than three people appear on the primary ballot, there won't be a primary election for Mayor. None of the other names are anyone I recognize and don't have any presence online. Unless those who have pulled petitions are doing so hide another candidate, then Aftab won't face any significant challengers. Republican Chris Smitherman seemed to cherish being appointed Vice-Mayor by John Cranley, so it would not surprise me that if there is a candidate that is trying to sneak around behind the scenes in desperation
Meeka Owens (D)*
Victoria Parks (D)*
Jeff Cramerding (D)*
Mark Jeffreys (D)*
Scotty Johnson (D)*
Seth Walsh (D)*
Anna Albi (D)*
Evan Nolan (D)*(Appointed in 2024)
Gwen Summers (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Laketa Cole (D)
Stephan Pryor (I)
LeTecia Cunningham (I)
Brandon Nixon (I)
Tyrone Roberson (I)
Barton Rosenberg (I)
Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.
Thursday, January 02, 2025
Happy Election Year 2025, Cincinnati!
Just when you want to forget about elections and politics, 2025 has arrived and for Cincinnati that means City Council and Mayoral Elections are this fall. Yes, I can see the joy in your face. The glee of a local election is like a melted plastic spatula stuck to the burner on the stove: You can't undue your failure, just fix your mistakes.
The mistakes with local elections in Cincinnati at this point are those who don't vote. Yes, the knee jerk reaction of many who pretend to follow politics is to opine about those in power. Whenever I hear people complain about those in power in a Democratic City, I can put them in one of two camps: 1) They are a Republican/Conservative whining about not being in power or 2) They are a leftist who wants power and can't come to grips with the fact that their extremist views are not popular.
What sucks about local politics is that most of the people paying attention are extremists or cranks. Yeah, you could call me a crank, but I am more of the nerdish observer that is content with a main stream Democratic Majority is not against Business Groups, but wants to have reasonable regulations and checks on them.
When local elections come around we tend to get lots of idiots out there. You know you are. Various fringe groups, special interests, and Right Wing assholes that are looking to get attention. In 2025 getting attention for a local election is very difficult. The public is extra ignorant these days. People under 40 will barely vote. What is sad is that those who actually turned out just a a couple months ago will not bother to vote again for years. I blame them for there idiocy.
Left leading groups want to blame Republicans for why they don't vote. Sure, there are efforts to make it more difficult to vote from Republicans. Yes, these efforts disproportionally affect the poor and racial minorities. That is not an excuse for people who can, but don't vote. The problem is with adults who don't vote. Yeah, adults, everyone who is old enough to vote is an adult. They are charged with being responsible for themselves, but they can't bother to vote. So 18-55 years old would be the age range with shitty voter turnout. People have been worried about alienating the younger voters. Well, they alienated themselves. It is time to just call them out as lazy fucking morons.
IF you can't get off your ass to vote one time a year, then I am will happily call you a lazy fuck. Yes, the lowest common denominator type defense is the first reaction that I get, but that is just as lazy. I am not talking about the exceptions. I am talking about the dumb fucks who spend their free time playing video games and smoking weed. Maybe they watch tik tok or some asshole video from YouTube, but that is such a bullshit way to live.
These ignorant fucks just whine that they can do nothing to change things. The problem: these fucks don't know what needs to be changed. They are passive shits who are feed crap and think they are making choices. They are just sheep. IT is not a surprise that an increasing number of younger men have become so intellectually lazy that they fall for sexist fascism Trumpists preach.
The only ones make an attempt to be activists are those with extremist views. They are making an effort, but are have their own problems with reality. They live in a mythical world that thinks purity is best and protest without achievable goal. They make noise and do little else. When you fail to achieve anything, other than pissing off people who could help your cause, you have no credibility. For Activists, getting attention is more important than achieving goals.
Whilst my rant continues: I must also point out those who are knee jerk against those in office. They don't have a consistent sense of ideology, but think they do when they want to remove other from power. No sense of what that will bring (See Trump), but they think change will be better. The problem is just more ignorance. They can't articulate what needs to change, just that change needs to happen. This mindset hits into populists more than leftists. When they know they can't change, they don't bother to participant and point fingers at others or the system, anything but their own ignorance.
Do not forget that the Republicans and Trumpists will do something this year to hurt the city, it is their way. COASTers or the like will make trouble and get suburban funding to make it happen. They could claim a "legitimate" effort in City politics if they get Chris Smitherman to run for mayor. Based on my observation of Smitherman over the last 20+ years in local politics, it is obvious that his dream is to be Mayor of Cincinnati. He has no realistic chance to win. He has pretended for most of last 20+ years to NOT be a Republican. This past year he sloppily danced around direct support for Trump, something he has avoided. He is surrounded by hardcore Trumpists as his core potential campaign leadership. I do not recall seeing him directly endorse Trump, but he pushed fringe issues championed by Trump and Vance. Before I left Twitter you could interpret his tweets as a bad RFKjr imitation. I think Smitherman is unhinged and delusional. As the Republican Party's sane wing has drunk the Kool Aide or gone on an ethics holiday, they could see it as a wise play to try and demonize the City with Smitherman as their voice and a ploy to gain more black votes for County elections. Exploiting black men is not new for Republicans, but what kind of man allows himself to be exploited?
Yes, happy election year, Cincinnati! This will be a clusterfuck. People will bitch about the lack of candidates that they "like." When people do that, they likely don't have a clue about the candidates. They don't know about any of the issues facing the city and are not going to make any efforts to find out. Unless outside group put shitty Charter Amendments on the ballot, no issues will be discussed. We can't have discussions on issue because any issues to be discussed will be usurped into a national debate that has little or just no relevance to the actual issue. Groups will form and demonize others who disagree with them on the issue. There will be no room for compromise.
The best thing you can do, is to ignore the assholes who are pushing you to join their cause. 98% of them are full of shit and lying about some part of their "cause." I observed this from the Rail Road sale. A bipartisan coalition of asses opposed the sale based on lies. It was sad to see people do this and join forces with extremists. Right Wing extremists and Left Wing Extremists mixed with some who in the past were not extremists and those non-extremists lost a lot of credibility. They burned so many bridges that I don't see how they get back into politics, locally. I don't suppose it matters anyway, least of all toe them.
I expect this year's election to end up two ways: 1) Democratic candidates win a fairly quiet and easy reelection or 2) Democratic candidates win a nasty election, maybe one or two less council members, but maintain their vast control of the City.
The only question at hand: Will the Republican Party OR the Charter Committee actually field any candidates for the general election? I will not be surprised if we don't see them publicly endorse any candidates. When they complain about the lack of choice, they get all of blame for that.
Tuesday, December 03, 2024
Hamilton County, Ohio Presidential Election Results by Neighborhood
The results for Hamilton County shifted slightly towards Republicans in the Presidential race. The table below lists out the Cincinnati neighborhoods and County municipality or township.
The data used for the Cincinnati Neighborhoods are approximations based on assignment of each precinct to one neighborhood. Therefore the underlying totals do is not exactly match the defined boundaries by census data. The County municipalities and Townships match up as precincts are tied to municipal borders.Thursday, November 28, 2024
2024 Hamilton County Election Turnout Analysis
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
There is an Election Next Month, Have You Noticed?
Tuesday, January 02, 2024
What to Write About for 2024?
Saturday, December 09, 2023
Hamilton County 2023 Turnout by Generation
Hamilton County voter turnout was the highest level for a local election in recent memory. Abortion rights drove most of the additional turnout. Here is voter turnout by Generation:
These numbers are based on the updated voter registration data, not the final results, so there is a small variance. Below are final summary turnout results in the county. First broken down by City vs Non-City:
Tuesday, November 07, 2023
What to Watch For in the Election Night Results in Cincinnati
For news junkies like myself, election night gives off a holiday eve vibe with lots to get exited about. Here is a list of what I look for:
What time will the initial results come in from the Hamilton County Board of Election? The board of election reports actual voting results as fast as it can, but the first report is what I call "The Flop." This initial report is of no election day votes, but does include nearly all of the absentee and early voting results. Under the old punch-card system, the BOE would report these results in a few minutes after the polls close. Since we changed to an optical scan system around 20ish years ago, they don't move as fast. I like to guess the time it posts, a friendly game to play while we wait for results. For most elections it is within 30 minutes of polls closing. After The Flop the next time to look any additional results is when the first precincts are reported. That time is widely variable and has far more elements and people to determine when that information is reported. I don't expect those before an hour after polls close. Unless there were long lines or other delays with certain precincts, all of the precincts are reported by midnight. There are still some absentee mail ballots pending for days and the provisional ballots, which have many other steps to go before all votes are tabulated. This can take many days.
What will the Flop tell us about who will win? In the past The Flog was mostly just mail in votes, but since Obama's first election in 2008 this has grown bigger. Early voting has become a normally large portion of voting, especially for Democrats. For Ohio the tilt to Democratic voters is still a clear variation, but the variances now are not as drastic as 2020, but still show a clear lean for Democrats.
For County or lower level races this gives a very telling snapshot, depending on the snap shot. In the case of the City of Cincinnati, it really sets the table on any likely outcome. For all of the City elections you should have a very clear idea of possible outcomes and likely the winners.
There are two main factors to consider: 1)What area does the race cover and 2) what is the variance between choices in the race. For example, let's look at Issue 23 with fairly uncontroversial elements. This issue covers the City of Cincinnati only. This means that the City results are what to watch. The City is heavily Democratic, so The Flop is providing a more common representation of the overall vote. The variance between the Yes/No results is then considered. There is no magic number or chart to check, but the bigger the lead one result has, the more likely it will win, no matter what variance may occurr with the election day vote base. For Issue 23 if is winning 58% to 42% after the Flop, it will win. If it is winning 52% to 48%, then odds are good it will win, but not as good. The closer it gets, the more the electorate on election day could sway. One VERY IMPORTANT thing to remember, these odds are not going to be enough in most cases to call the race. The number of votes out there will be such that the other side "could" still win. Issue 22 is one race that has less predictability on it, as the variation of which voting blocks are for or against the issue are not clearly drawn. That being said, on any ballot issue in the City, you NEVER want to be behind on the Flop. This ends up being a situation when people confuse possibility with probability. This happens to often.
For the City Council race, with a non-binary voting options, the issues are different. The gaps between each candidate then become the first question. After the Flop the key issue is the vote result gap. How far out is the 10th place from the top 9 places. The bigger the gap, the smaller the chance that #10 can over take that candidate. The next question would the voting blocks each candidate relies upon. For the Democrats this year, they have the Dem Ticket and that block is strong. If they have all 9 slots and Republican Keating is last, her gap needs to be very small with the 9th place to give her the chance to pick up the small influx of Republican voters on election day (vs early voting). If Keating is not in 10th Place, she would be in a great position to win. The higher she is in order, the more she locks in finishing in the top 9. There is far less certainty is this type of race, so less certainty comes from the Flop. If this was a mayoral election, it would be a different story.
What about State Wide Issues? Hamilton County results are not going to be an indication of anything alone with State wide issues, but there is an expectation game. On Issues 1 and 2 HamCo would be expected to beat the polling numbers for those issues to pass. That gets more pressing when look at just the City of Cincinnati results. The same factors on what will happen can come from The Flop, but then the party swing with early voting becomes a bigger factor. What this means: If the Yes polling result for Issue 1 is 58% for the State, Hamilton County should be significantly higher on that for it occur. That direction is what should be examined. When The Flop happens, Issue 1 should be dominating the county. Then as the election day results come in, when more Republican voters go to the polls, the Yes percentage should drop. There is no set number to watch for, beyond The Flop. If they Flop is close or less than the polling numbers, that is a indicator of where things are going. Again, this is not anything definitive on actual results, but it can tell you that the polling was off.
Where are the Election Night Parties? Ok, this is one that is far less fun than it used to be. Firstly it is less fun for me as I've gotten much older and can't stay out late. The other reason is the toxic state of politics. In the past, you could be friendly with those that don't agree with your politics. Today, it is very difficult to put aside politics and be humans. This is even true within political parties as well as between political parties. The negative and very nasty way the Anti-Issue 22 campaign waged demonstrated this more than anything. It is so toxic. I've seen people behave so terribly online with this campaign that it is very troublesome. People could put aside the conflict once the polls close. I will do my best to hold my tongue when Issue 24 crash and burns, but there are political groups who just spew so much negativity, I am not going to consider myself congenial if I just say nothing at all.
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
Cincinnati City Council Election October 2023 Update
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡
Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent








