Tuesday, January 12, 2021

January City Council Candidates Update

It is officially election year in Cincinnati, Ohio and partisan politics is ripe with the rank Republican spectacle that is Probate Judge Ralph Winkler. The suburbanite judge saw it as his duty to make a partisan pick of Republican Liz Keating to temporarily replace P.G. Sittenfeld who agreed to a suspension while he faces criminal charges. 

A Republican gives a rich kid a leg up in the council race.  Wannabe aristocratic families don't need help from the cheap seats, but if anyone is going to help them out, they can count on a Republican.

The next month or so will be taken up with the 3D chess match taking place with the laundry list of Mayoral Candidates.  This post will stay away from that log jam waiting to happen.

Instead this is the the time starting figuring out how many real candidates are running?  I say "real" with no trepidation.  There are too many candidates and we only need serious candidates who are willing to act like leaders who understand that role of Council members is to govern.  I fear we have an abundance of crackpots and flake candidates who are looking for attention.  I really hope they get out of the race quickly.  I don't have time to bother following those who are less than sane or just out to make a few pithy twitter posts.

The next half of a year is when serious candidates are raising contributions and building up a network of people that give them a conceivable chance of winning.  Going viral is not going to get you elected, so setting up a website that can take campaign contributions is the first sign that people are real candidates.  Just getting on the ballot does not make what I would call a real candidate.

Another rule for candidates: Don't make unforced errors. Council Member Betsy Sundermann had worst timing ever.  You are not going to get elected to Cincinnati Council by enabling Donald Trumps lies, ever with an abstention.
  
Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D-Appointed)
Jeff Pastor (R Suspended from Office with criminal charges pending)
Betsy Sundermann (R-Appointed)

Temporary Replacement to Council
Steve Goodin (R) (for Pastor's Seat)
Liz Keating (R) (for Sittenfeld's Seat)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (?)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Key Beck (?)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Kevin Flynn (I)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Stacey Smith (D)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I?)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Becky Finnigan (D)
Jim Neil (?)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

November City Council Candidates Update

Well, I thought there wouldn't be much action in the council race at this point, but Republican Jeff Pastor was arrested under serious criminal charges involving his office as a member of City Council. Several Local Republicans quickly threw him under the bus.  Too bad those Republicans didn't have the spine to do that to Larry Householder or Trump.  Another group of Republicans, like a certain conservative columnist who is regularly sniffing the butts of conservative Republicans in hopes of landing a full time radio gig, just blames the City in mass for the actions of indivduals.  His regular anti-city rants fit right in with the bigotry rampant within the GOP, who as evidenced by the targeting of cities in their feeble Fascist Crusade to try and subvert Democracy in America, are just blowing dog whistles for racists.

So, we'll have a Republican Circus to deal with.

The most entertaining part will be watching Chris Smitherman, as the current designated member of council, to make the appointment to Council should Jeff Pastor resign. Smitherman does odd contortions to hide being a Republican.  It is what I call a complete lie and he and his Trumpist followers get in a frensy whenever I say he is a Republican on Twitter.  They defend lies all the time, so what is one more?

Anyway, the entertaining part is watching how he'll spin appointing a Republican.  It will be even more entertaining if he appoints a white Republican. The assumption is that he would appoint someone with a shot at winning next year.  There are only four announced Republicans.

But wait, there's more:  With the additional arrest of P.G. Sittenfeld, we may also end up seeing an additional election eligible person to the council.  There are four current Democratic members of council who will jointly appoint any possible replacement.  Sittenfeld has stated his innocence and has indicate he will not resign from Council.  This has no other affect on the Council Race, other than Republicans and outsiders using it as a talking point.  The FBI investigation could theoretically arrest other candidates, but as Sittenfeld would be considered the more "newsworthy" for US Attorney, unless Mayor John Cranley is in his sites, we won't see any other council members arrested, (But who knows). Make note that to be fare, Jeff Pastor is accused of more crimes than Sittenfeld, but as the news coverage is obvious, the Republicans wanted this one more and are going to exploit it.  The media will continue to do their bidding on this topic as well.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D-Appointed)
Jeff Pastor (R with criminal charges pending)
Betsy Sundermann (R-Appointed)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (?)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Key Beck (?)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Stacey Smith (?)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I?)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Becky Finnigan (D)
Steve Goodin (R)
Jim Neil (?)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, this reference will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Monday, September 28, 2020

Generational Voting Segments in Hamilton County, Ohio

 I know there are other nerds out there who wonder which generations vote locally?  I let loose a little bit of my Nerdiness on a spreadsheet and created the chart and table displayed below. They detail the last two federal elections and breaks down the generations listed on the Hamilton County Registered Voter listing as of 09/25/2020.




Sunday, September 27, 2020

September City Council Candidates Update

We are over 13 months away from the next City Election, so I think it's time to update the listing of Council Candidates. As you will see, things have changed quite a bit since my last update 6 months ago.

We have a shit ton of candidates at this stage that are considered "Announced."  I say they are announced with a massive salt lick to go with that determination.  You see, the Cincinnati Enquirer ran a story and a follow up story providing a listing of candidates who they deemed have "Announced" their candidacy for Cincinnati City Council. They had a short bio with a few indicative data points about each candidate along with a picture for most. Not a bad couple of stories.  The only problem is that they didn't indicate how any of the candidates made an announcement. A large contingent of the announced candidate haven't even created a Facebook page for their campaign.  That is free to anyone, but some haven't done that, even after they provided information to a reporter working on a story that was going to get them more press than they will get again..  Getting off to a non-start is not a good way to announce your candidacy.

I have included everyone the Enquirer listed on my list.  Most were ones I already had, but they have included several that were new to me and had no online presence I could find. For this update I have not segmented any type of analysis as to whom may have more of a viable candidacy than other candidates, except that I grouped the incumbents and announced candidates separate from the might run prior candidates or the still couple of rumored candidates that were out there. 

There won't be must churn on this list until next year when fundraising and signature gathering starts in earnest.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)
Jeff Pastor (R)
Betsy Sundermann (R)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (I?)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I?)
Seth Maney (R)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Steve Goodin (R)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me.

Saturday, March 07, 2020

March 2020 Cincinnati City Council Candidates Update

Well, a little shake up on City Council that no one expected over the last month.  Republicans "selected" someone for Amy Murray's seat and a member of council, Tamaya Dennard, resigned after being charged with bribery, but has now been replaced.  All the while a primary election was cancelled due to COVID-19.

So, nothing much to worry about.  The delay in the primary puts off any campaigning and fundraising and really little else is going on outside of how self consciously one is about drinking alone while physical/socially distancing,

I don't know if other candidates are going to use this time home to develop campaign strategy, but that may be the only thing possible for City Politics.

Incumbents Eligible to Run
Greg Landsman (D)*
Jeff Pastor (R)*
Betsy Sundermann (R)*
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*

Announced Candidates
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Brian Garry (D)
Jalen Alford (D?)
Bill Frost (C)

Prior Candidates Likely to Run
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Henry Frondorf (D,C)
Seth Maney (R)
Kelli Prather (D)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Ozie Davis III (D)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Manuel Foggie (I?)
Tamie Sullivan (R,I ?)
Leslie Jones (D)
Tonya Dumas (D)
Erica Black-Johnson (I)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Cam Hardy (D,C,I ?)
Matt Woods (C)
Dadrien Washington (D)
Derrick D. Blassingame (R)
Liz Keating (R)
Steve Goodin (R)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me.

Monday, February 24, 2020

Cincinnati City Council Candidates Update

Early in 2020 there are not big changes to the number of candidates officially running, but Republicans are falling all over themselves to get an appointment to City Council. Most would be consider it a big advantage running for council as an incumbent.  Many of theses Republicans seem to forget that they face long odds at getting elected to office as a Republican in the City of Cincinnati, even as an incumbent.  I have included in my list below those who put in an application with the Republican Party to fill Amy Murray's seat.  Murray announced recently she was soon leaving City Council to take a Trump political appointment in the Defense Department.  Murray is drinking the Kool-Aide to further her political career in a party that has gone off the deep end into neo-fascism.  Good luck with that, Amy.

I would estimate that at least 75% of the Republicans looking to fill Murray's seat have no intention of running for Council in 2021 WITHOUT being an incumbent.  The Republicans only candidate that has won with room to spare recently has been Chris Smitherman and he got that by pretending to Not be a Republican.  Murray and Pastor were the 8th and 9th place winners, by the skin of their teeth in 2017.  This will be the only time I list out those Republicans, unless they are serious about running for council. The pick for Murray's seat should be done within about a month, so, at that point, those other candidates running might declare.

The rest of candidates of all parties considering a run still have more time to organize.  Here's this latest update:

Incumbents Eligible to Run
Tamaya Dennard (D,C) *
Greg Landsman (D) *
Jeff Pastor (R) *

Announced Candidates
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Brian Garry (D)
Jalen Alford (D?)

Prior Candidates Likely to Run
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Henry Frondorf (D,C)
Seth Maney (R)
Kelli Prather (D)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Ozie Davis III (D)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Manuel Foggie (I?)
Tamie Sullivan (R,I ?)
Leslie Jones (D)
Tonya Dumas (D)
Erica Black-Johnson (I)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Cam Hardy (D,C,I ?)
Matt Woods (C)
Dadrien Washington (D)
Derrick D. Blassingame (R)

Other Republicans Who Wanted to be Appointed to Murray's Seat These individuals want to be on council, based on seeking the open seat, but they have not indicated yet that they are running for office without being an appointed incumbent.
Tommy Price (R)
Jacob Samad (C,R)
Devoe Sherman (R)
Betsy Sundermann (R)
Liz Keating (R)
Gary Lee (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Linda Matthews (R)
Steve Megerle (R)
Heather Couch (R)
Jacqueline Ennis (R)
Gary Favors (R)
Garrett Gerard (R)
William Glines (R)
Steve Goodin (R)
Scott Harper (R)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

Sunday, January 26, 2020

Do the Hamilton County Republicans Have a Plan for the 2021 Elections or NOT?

With the internal fight in Hamilton County Republican Party circles still smarting this week, what can be gleaned from what their strategic plan is for the 2021 City of Cincinnati Elections for Mayor and Council?

Get beyond your inclination to ask "Who cares?" That would be a mistake. I am a realist and very pragmatic. Always know as much as you can about what your oppornet is doing.  In the case of the Hamilton County GOP, that is a big question mark.  The one consistent thing they have done for the last nearly 20 years has been to give up on winning control of the City of Cincinnati.

The best they have been able to do is win over back room allies.  Case in point is moderate Democrat John Cranley, who only won the mayor's race because he got full throated support from Republican voters and donors. Cranley got a deal, no GOP opponent.  It has been over 10 years since the last Republican ran for mayor of Cincinnati and the number of publicly endorsed candidates for council has dwindled to less than a possible majority slate.

In 2021 there will be six open seats and a change in the length of term to only two years, down from four after a charter amendment.  That provides a big open door for new candidates. The problem for the GOP is that they have no bench strength.  They have one incumbent, Jeff Pastor, who eked out the ninth spot by just over 200 votes, so he will be at the whims of the tides on the next election.  Seth Maney was the other available endorsed candidate last time around.  Tamie Sullivan was another candidates as well, but I don't remember her getting much Republican support after she made a sensible anti-Trump public statement. She's thought of more as a moderate, which normally is what the Republicans mostly put forth in the City, but anymore you gotta drink the Kool-Aide on Trump.  Based on his Twitter likes, Seth Maney surprisingly fits the Kool-Aide drinking test on Trump, so he may be able to attempt a Yasser Arafat style campaign.  That's one where you speak one way to the world (the voters) and another way to a domestic audience (Suburban Republican donors.) Any other candidates out there are being kept low key or outright secrets.

Another surprise move for HCRP was to their new headquarters in Pendleton. They left their long time Downtown space and when north, to the edge of Downtown.  To many suburbanites, they can't tell the difference between Downtown and Hyde Park, so this move was not significant in terms of geography. The surprise is that they stayed Downtown.  Alex Triantafilou is no stranger to Downtown, but the party rank and file don't like Downtown, let alone anywhere in the City of Cincinnati itself. Keeping the headquarters in the city is a surprise. Moving out closer to their base would have been what I would have expected.  One would think that they could have also gotten a cheaper space, but that may been part of the deal with the move to Pendleton. I don't see a reason for them to stay there, other than the logical point that Downtown is the Center of the region and is where any group looking to be relevant on the big stage of the area. When they moved the BOE to Norwood, one would have thought they would be vacating the city at every chance.  As part of their anti-City national platform, leaving the big city for suburbs is the logical choice.

Does that given any support to the idea that the HCRP has a plan to win in 2021?  Do they think they have a mayoral candidate or a full slate of council candidates that can win? The right combination of money and name recognition can be the basis for any candidate for any party in Cincinnati. Have we reached a point, however, that thanks to national politics and the Westside White Flight of the last 20 years that the Republican Party is not a viable entity in City elections?

That leads me back to my initial thought, do they have a plan?  Well, Republicans are to blame for the frivolous scandal to hit City Hall and are doubly responsible for the interference from the State Republican officials interfering in local affairs to create a round two of that fabricated scandal. This effort is clearly being done for political purposes to damage future Democratic candidates for Mayor and Council. The knuckle draggers who manufactured the initial lawsuit that found a sympathetic activist Republican Judge that gave them a fishing license to create a scandal, would disagree with it, but the odd things is, as I wrote about recently, they are having a fight with HCRP leadership.

While the HCRP is certainly reveling in the scandal the knuckle draggers have created, they also know that overall, they need to have a longer view.  They know the County demographics are not changing in their favor and that they are losing the power of the Prosecutor's office and the Hamilton County Courts. That means the Republican scandals would be fair game for Democrats to pursue.  That pursuit would be one a long time coming and as well all know payback is a bitch. So, embracing the efforts of the knuckle draggers attempting to wrestle control of the Party isn't in their interest at all.

It just goes back to the simple truth about the Republican Party, it has become the White man and his wife's party and few others.  It's policies are extreme. Those in the City don't agree with the narrow mindedness of that party. Hamilton County voters are not far behind the City.  That scares the HCRP.

So, what can they do? I don't have an answer and I don't think they do either.  I don't think they have much of a plan.  Maybe they can find some young candidates or recruit a few well known names to run as candidates, but if they are right wingers, they are going to lose.  I think John Cranley is as conservative as a candidate can be and win as Mayor in Cincinnati. Some Republicans are pushing 80 year old David Mann to run and that is the most disingenuous support as could be. Sure he's in a Cranley orbit on policy, but they would drop him like a rock if flashy guy chose to run last minute and force a primary. It is underhanded to play that game with David Mann.

Unless Republicans can change the election rules, they are going to be out of control of City Hall.  Don't be surprised if they make their support for the effort to change to a district and at-large council structure, which is not a good one.  That would be the only way they can have an advantage, but even then, a right wing candidate wouldn't make it very far and that wouldn't give them the Mayor's seat.

In 2021 I think you can expect more of the same.  They might try and get a high profile Republican that thinks they can be next Brad Wenstrup, the last Republican to enter the Mayor's race.  He was able to turn that loss into a win in a gerrymandered congressional seat.  That will be difficult to repeat in the 2022 mid-terms, but who knows.

As for City Council, I wouldn't be surprised to see five Republicans make the ballot and that be spun as some grand victory alone, but then only two win.  That would be a loss in the number of Republican seats now held by Republicans or people who pretend to not be a Republican, but get elected by their support. That might be the best Plan the HCRP could have for 2021, unless a fascist state is established before then. That would make the knuckle draggers happy, but likely they'd be alone on that one.