Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Cincinnati City Council Election October 2023 Update

The election is two weeks away and for City Council, we have no change. We are still going to have 8 Democrats on City Council. The largest majority for a single party in many decades. The right wing is seething over this and leftists are angry about not getting their way with a tiny number of supporters. There is a real race for the last two spots. I personally can see three ways for it turn out:

1. Liz Keating gets a bigger boost from incumbency and short ticket Republican voting and edges higher (6th or 7th place), pushing the last spot to an Albi-Walsh race.
2. Democratic turnout surges and the power of the slate is bigger with Issue 1 increasing turnout into the upper 30s percentage range and leaves Keating on the outside.
3. A three person race ensures; with Keating, Albi, and Walsh in a very close race that goes late into the night or even relies on provisional ballots to decide.

As usual, the flop on election night is what is the most interesting predictor. The flop, as I consider it, is the initial report the Hamilton County BOE makes on election night that reports the Early and Absentee vote totals.  This occurs fairly early in the evening, sometimes even before 8 PM.  With early voting a significant share from across the city, the initial results are unlikely to change if the variances between candidates are large enough. This year, that will be the tell for Keating.  If she is anywhere other than 10th place, she has a good shot.  If she is in 10th place, then she needs to be VERY close to the 9th place candidate.  As Republicans are generally not voting early in as large of numbers as Dems, she would stand to get a better surge of votes, especially with a spike of short ticket voting, from the election day votes.  With fewer Republicans in the City, that may not be enough.  Especially, since her two primary competitors, Albi and Walsh, would more than likely NOT be candidates a moderate or conservative voter would consider including on their ballot.

Issue 22 is not easily predictable.  The Support of the Democratic party and the silence from the Republican party make for a favorable outlook for passage, but it depends on turnout and if people vote down the ballot on most things.

Issue 23 should win with ease.  It is a reasonable measure that creates some improvements to the election process and operation of the City Council.

Issue 24 will very likely fail. No one wants to vote for a income tax increase. Add to that the issue is just another leftist scheme to force policy to the city without vetting the details of the plan and creating something that would intentionally tie the hands of future city councils is not a good idea.

Statewide Issues and 1 and 2 have one poll showing both with decent support.  Polling is not something to put much faith into, especially a single poll, but this poll is consistent with prior polling on the abortion issue generally in Ohio. There is no reason to expect a big drop in support for Issue 1, especially if turnout matches the August special election.

I am annoyed with the extreme level of propaganda from people against Issue 22. They have limited financial support, but the talking points that are being used by the anti-22 team online is either massively misleading or it is so generalized that it has no meaning. I am very disappointed with some individuals that have signed on with the Smitherman/COAST cabal leading the anti-22 efforts.  They have what I can best consider an emotional attachment to keeping the rail road and not a logical or analytical reasoning for their position. Fear that they can't control it seems more of their concern than the better financial position the city will obtain with the sale.

There have been few other outside groups with significant endorsements widely reported this year.  I can find no FOP endorsements and WVXU reports Liz Keating got a Charter endorsement, but other than a Xitter post about a fundraiser for Keating, I didn't find much on their support. I hear many complaints from Republicans and others about not having other candidates with diverse ideas to chose from, but Republicans and Charter have the means to support additional candidate to run, but they can't find any who are credible.  That is NOT the Dems fault, that is the fault of Republican and Charter organizations.  They need better leadership and real organization. You can't phone it in or be known as a party of extremists.  Maybe in 2025 they will find some candidates. I don't expect much.

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent

Sunday, October 08, 2023

Drama Free Zone

Early voting starts on Wednesday October 11th and it seems like there is no campaign going on. If you are reading this you might be longing for some political coverage of the election, but there really isn't anything to report.

If you want drama, then you want entertainment.  Political Journalism is about entertainment. There is so little good political journalism going on anywhere. One exception is a great article from Becca Costello at WVXU. Details, details, details is the core of what makes for good Political Journalism and that article has it from all sides.

I will avoid linking to the drama obsessed Enquirer.  I've recently tried to defend the Enquirer, as it is the most comprehensive local news source in the Cincinnati area. There political coverage is largely just entertainment for suburbanites.  We have a political journalist who is so transparently angered at the local Democratic Party for being successful. The passive aggressive angst seethes from Sharon Coolidge's articles.  She wants drama for her "news" article and she can't get Democrats on City Council to provide her with any.

We don't know much of what the candidates plan to do, but we know that unsuccessful left wing candidates can't understand why they are not welcome in the local Democratic Party after they burned every possible bridge they could over the last few elections.

I've been writing about local politics now for over 20 years and I am astonished at the apathy. Not only is the public apathetic, the local news media seems uninterested.

We'll have an election and stuff will happen.  There is actually some interesting variables to consider, but the discourse on politics today is just crap. The powerful tools available online are just garbage. You can't find any place to have a civil discussion on politics. I say that with a full acknowledgement that I myself have had many uncivil political arguments over the years. I believe I've tried to be honest and not rude.  I've been rude in response to others being rude or just out right bigots or racists. Stating the truth about bigots and racists is not rude, it is just honesty. Honesty is civility. 

I have made a strong effort to avoid the fools.  Blocking people who are repeatedly acting horribly on Social Media is not only a great choice, it is a quick one.  Don't feed the trolls, just block them.  The bots are always easy for people to block, but there are real people who are complete assholes online. I mean assholes.  There is no reason to engage with them, they only want your attention.  Life is short and people online who only detract from your life do not need to be part of it. 

Work to create a more Drama Free Zone in Cincinnati.  We need more effort to build a better local community.  I know how it could be done and so do most people, but we just don't seem to be able to connect in a world filled with easy ways to communicate. That conflictive puzzle will persist.