4%?

Kevin Drum believes that only 4% of the populations vote actually are in play this year. Or at least that is the only group that will have any significant sway either way in the election. I don't know how he got these numbers, but in general the election will come down to a small number of states. Ohio right now is one of those states. It is critical for Bush to win Ohio. He just can't win without it, at least not in any likely scenario. Kerry's must wins are all of Gore's states last year and Florida, which by the intent of voters should have been a Gore win with room to spare, if not for the mess that happened.