Monday, March 01, 2004

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio

On Meet the Press yesterday Tim Russert had out his marker board with the words Ohio Ohio Ohio on written much like he did in election day in 2000 but with Florida written three times. Speculation is now growing that Ohio will be the battle ground for President and that we could be the next Florida.

Well, there are several problems with this concept. Ohio will not be super close. We might be within a percentage point, but nothing like Florida. We will be targeted as the swing state of all swing states, but with a catch. The Democrats don't need Ohio to win. It would make it easy to win the White House if they did, but they don't need Ohio. The GOP must win Ohio or they will loose. Ohio is the bell weather for middle America, and the GOP can only win if they carry the Midwest big.

At this point Bush can likely forget about winning Michigan and Pennsylvania. It think the issues will hurt him there and many of those same issues spill into much of Ohio. That is where he is in danger. Ohio is much more GOP than either Michigan or PA, but the social issues don't carry the state. Jobs and Security will carry Ohio. Bible thumping might get you Adams County, but that is about it, and Bush had them at hello.

I am worried about campaign in Ohio. We are seen as a target and will likely be the place that sees the candidates a dozen times come the fall. That means we will be ripe for conflict. Local party people could start getting nasty. I could see things in Columbus get out of hand. I mean, they rioted when they won a football game, so I would think some hot bloodied college Republicans might get a few too many beers one day while watching the Buckeyes on TV and decide to go disrupt the Democratic VP's rally on OSU campus. Yes, it could happen the other way around, but I think this would were the GOP could be more desperate. Hold onto your hats kids, the Buckeye will be bucking.

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