Now, let's compare this to the last few years totals of registered voters:
Year | Registered Voters | % |
2010 | 209,259 | 90.50% |
2009 | 225,680 | 97.60% |
2008 | 229,413 | 99.21% |
2007 | 212,303 | 91.81% |
2005 | 212,202 | 91.77% |
2004 | 215,454 | 93.17% |
So, a few months before the Census time frame (April 1, 2010) we had approximately 98% voter registration. I had no idea we did that well. Similarly, seven months later we had 91% voter registration, a large drop, but it continued the normal drop from a presidential election, yet still very high.
What gives? We obviously don't have that high of a registration rate. We obvioulsy don't have that much voter registration error or fraud, no matter how many Republicans want claim such. We know both points are true because the article points out that similar rates can be seen county wide. We also know this to be valid if we look at some other municipalities within the County. As an example take Cheviot, not known as a liberal bastion, which has a 2010 population according to the census of 8,375 with 6,547 adults aged 18 years or more. The voting registration for Cheviot in November for 2010 was 5,293 or 81%.
So, I'm sure that Republicans are thinking, hmmm, that is 10% lower than Cincinnati, must be something fishy going there. Well, before you worry about Cincinnati, you might want to take a look at Indian Hill. The Village of Indian Hill (actually a city) has a 2010 population of 5,785 with adults over age 18 totaling 4,221. In the November election Indian Hill had a voter registration of 4,797. If you know your math, and I know you do, that would equal a registration rate of 114%. Sure, 500 kids could have turned 18 after April 1st, 2010, but before election day and they all could have registered to vote. I doubt that.
No, I'm not claiming voter fraud is occurring en masse in Indian Hill, nor am I saying our Board of Election is careless. Instead I suggest the census numbers are wrong. There is little doubt that the entire county was undercounted.
In 2006, the last off-year election, 68% of voting-age citizens were registered (per US Census Department). Using that number (although registration and turnout were lower in 2010), Cincinnati's voting-age population would be 307,734. That number does not include children. According to CPS, their enrollment is approximately 33,000. While there is some overlap between CPS enrollment and voting-age citizens, the CPS number also doesn't include children under ages 5-6. I don't think its a far reach to estimate Cincinnati's population closer to 340,000 people... unless the County Board of Elections numbers are seriously off, in which case we have other issues.
ReplyDeleteI would be curious to know how other cities fair regarding their census count:voter registration ratio.
ReplyDeleteSomething doesn't add up.
ReplyDeleteI know for one that I never received a census nor was I visited by a census worker. I even tried to get them to mail me a census to no avail...I doubt the validity of the census.
ReplyDeleteI feel certain that the snail mail census system this year is as outdated as a VHS tape. I don't trust those numbers except when looking at general trends.
ReplyDeleteI didn't receive a census form either. If I'm not mistaken, the gov did 2 mailings in the city. Didn't receive either one. I damned sure didn't call them to ask for one, either. They don't need all the info they ask for to calculate their statistics for financial assistance & what not.
ReplyDeleteA story I heard swirling was many people within the city ignored the form or fudged it. The theme was too much government snooping.
As for the uptick in voter registration in Indian Hill, my best guess is families did have children turn 18 & urged them to register as part of their responsibility to their parenting duties. The kids complied to have their say in the process.