Does Smitherman Only Know How to Threaten People?

Is Chris Smitherman, president of the local chapter of the NAACP, only able to communicate via threat?

It sounds like the school board to a degree agreed with his position that not enough African-Americans were employed on the current school construction projects. So, Smitherman went into his bag of tricks and pulled out the only thing he has: shouting threats. Political retribution to a school board is akin to telling a volunteer staffer you are going to dock their pay for being late. That aside, Smitherman has no political power to use. In the last election he had little influence on City races, so what makes him think he can do anything for the school board?

The more telling questions not answered were alluded to in the article: How many non-whites are employed on the constructional projects? Did the projects reach the goal of 40% of workers from city residents?

Maybe if Smitherman asked more questions, instead of demanding answers to the wrong ones, he might be taken seriously and maybe even has his opinion considered.

Smitherman Is Running, Supposedly

The Enquirer is reporting that local NAACP President Chris Smitherman is running for City Council. He said this before, so I will believe it when he is on the ballot.

We have a clear lack of independent candidates running, so adding more is a good thing, but Smitherman is an attention whore concerned only about himself. His one term on council was a worthless disaster and he managed to piss off so many people that he lost the next election. He wants attention and I expect the Enquirer will give him all he wants, as they do on a regular basis, while ignoring other news. Now they'll just ignore other candidates in favor of the three ring circus.

We don't need a political circus and that is all Smitherman does. He will makes some outlandish comments, make some implausible and divisive proposals and will not be criticized by the Enquirer.

Let's just hope this is yet another Smitherman ploy, that will fade away faster than the stench of rotten meat.

Wendell Young Sums Up Smitherman's 'Meeting'

Cincinnati City Council Member Wendell Young summed up the problem with fellow Council Member Chris Smitherman's special council meeting held last night. From the Enquirer Article:

“It is wonderful that we care,” he said, but it’s wrong to imply that this is the first time council and others have been interested in this topic.

Additionally in the Enquirer Blog post about the meeting, Young's comments were described as this:

People were deluded, he said, into thinking they would hear something new tonight.

This meeting was nothing but a show. It was a stunt to gain attention and make people believe that Smitherman and Winburn are doing something for black people. It was also a political tactic. The most brilliant aspect was to use the "black on black crime" terminology in the media. This gives Winburn something to appeal to the conservative, mostly White voters, that Republicans rely on for votes. Both Winburn and Smitherman have built narrowly defined voting blocks. Winburn's has more of a Coalition than Smitherman, so he needs to appeal to multiple angles of this issue.

No matter what, they got their media attention (yes including me). That gives them a slight boost to their reelection efforts. Each have to continue to walk the tight-rope of appealing to both Republicans and the Black Community.  Neither one will ever be able to totally rely on Republican votes alone, so they must play this game and it is sickening.

Quimbob over at Blogging Isn't Cool has more on the 'Meeting.'

Smitherman Campaign Worker Trashes CityBeat

SpaethC at CincyVoices has a great post about witnessing a Chris Smitherman Campaign worker trashing all of the newspaper copies in a CityBeat box downtown Friday night.  My wonder is: how many other boxes did this or other Smitherman workers trash?

The evidence is all in blog post, debating it is pointless. Chris Smitherman must immediately investigate who did  it, fire them, apologize to CityBeat, and pay damages.

He won't do that, but that will allow everyone to see how Smitherman is NOT running a normal rational political campaign.  Instead he'll either ignore the incident or claim it was a CIA conspiracy.

OK, to be fair, he may claim it was an FBI or NSA  or CPD conspiracy, not just the CIA.

Smitherman Lies to NAACP Membership

The Enquirer's political blog documents the lie sent to local NAACP by their local chapter President and member of City Council Chris Smitherman. His lie was simple and blatant:

“Our right to vote is the issue,” Smitherman said in an email to members and others.

No, the effort to defeat the Parking Plan is all about Republicans trying to defeat Democrats, because they only have two solid votes on Council and want more.  They see the Parking Plan, which really would normally be welcomed ideologically by businesses focused Republicans, as a way to get to the uninformed voter and exploiting their ignorance.  How better to get people mad than by making them think the price for something is going up.  It works if you use donuts  beer, McDonald's, or even guns.

Smitherman is supporting the Republicans.  I would not be surprised if he is courting the GOP for an endorsement and trying to factor in how many votes that would cost him in Bond Hill and Roselawn.

John Cranely is doing the same thing, but seems to be backing off the spotlight.  He knows the GOP endorsement would kill his chances to win the Mayor's race, but he'll walk the line even more blatantly than Smitherman, one of his supporters.  Dishonesty in being two faced is not either politician shys away from.

NewsFlash: Smitherman Still a Loon

The Enquirer's political blog reports on a statement issued by local NAACP Chapter President Chris Smitherman yesterday on the 40th anniversary of the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. On a day that the vast majority of people in the country remembered the horrible tragedy that day and remembered the courage and leadership MLK's life entailed, we instead get a statement from a local "leader" that had only one intention: get attention for Chris Smitherman by attempting to increase racial tensions. To make a statement that the U.S. Government "had a great deal to do with the assassination" is a clear sign that Smitherman cares nothing but building up his own power by trying to get people to hate white people and the US government, no matter how much that harms society. I won't even discuss the fact that he has the foolishness to reference a conspiracy theory as fact. I'm waiting for him to start his own new line of tinfoil hats and accessories.

I saw this post yesterday and I wanted to post on it right away, but I wasn't going to do that on anniversary. I waited a day, let myself cool off a bit and have posted on it this morning. Smitherman is a total embarrassment to the NAACP, to MLK's family, to Cincinnati, to the entire country.

Get Off Your Ass If You Are Running For Office In The City Of Cincinnati

We are now less than two years out from Cincinnati City Council and Mayoral elections on November 2, 2021.  If you are running for an office, you better get off your ass now and start organizing your campaign or you will not win.

Sure, if you have tons of money or are well known, you will think you can win, but you still need to begin planning now.  You need to line up support.  You need to formulate a strategy to win.  You need to start making personal connections that give you the chance to make it.

The next election will have a super majority of non-incumbents.  All indications are that the GOP has something up its sleeve.  Whether that is putting a ton of money in the Race behind enough candidates to even win a majority of council OR if they are just going to wage a hidden support campaign for Chris Smitherman for Mayor, we don't know.  I'd expect something, at least something superficial that gets local media attention.

Smitherman is the choice of Republicans, but Smitherman is scared to accept their open endorsement and instead is attempting to manufacture a tight-rope campaign that is trying to appeal to the Right Wing money he needs, but keeping that secret from the African-American voters who don't like Republicans. I don't know if a political duality like this can work, but if Smitherman acts like other Republicans and limits his message to voters who only consume a small number of information sources, he can attempt to keep his Right Wing support hidden from an important voting block.

The duality of telling one group he accepts the racist policies of the Republican Party while telling he rejects those same policies is the type of tight rope to drive a person to a level or derangement that can only be harmful.  Smitherman has a reputation for and has made historical examples of what I would characterize as unhinged behavior.  Trying to like this duality will only exacerbate the problem.

So the fun is ahead of us!  I am working on creating my list of candidates running for council and their endorsements.  I'll include mayor if that list grows significantly.  Send me an email at cincyblog@aol.com or send word to @cincyblog if you have information on a new candidate getting into the race.

I expect a nasty mayor's race and I expect the Republicans to be complete shits as they run a VERY dirty campaign. Hope they can take as good as the give.

Chris Smitherman's Ego Swollen Like Large Zit

I don't know how Chris Smitherman could make more of a pathetically non-committal attention ploy, than he did when making public his plans to maybe run for council this year and/or definitely maybe running for Mayor in 2013.

If Smitherman was really concerned with the welfare of the city, then he would have the courage and commitment to actually announce his candidacy. Instead we get a hint of the circus he'll likley put forth if he actually spends the time and formally gets in the race for city council or maybe the mayorship or maybe both (or not).

We don't need a circus. We don't need an ego maniac looking to push their personal agenda ahead of the city, taking up the media's attention this election cycle. We need serious people with serious resolve. Chris Smitherman should do us all a favor and stay out of the government. We don't need his antics.

If there's a doctor in the house, I would hope they could lance Smitherman's ego, and let the swelling quell.

Reece is Running for Mayor

The official word will not come for another week but a brief mention was given about a comment Vice Mayor Alicia Reece made yesterday:

Cincinnati Vice Mayor Alicia Reece - who has hinted in recent months that she wants to run for mayor - will make it official March 6. Reece, a Bond Hill Democrat, said Saturday she will kick off her campaign for mayor after she returns from a fund-raising trip. Democrats David Pepper, a Mount Adams councilman, and Mark L. Mallory, a West End state senator, have announced their candidacies for the Sept. 13 primary. Charlie Luken is not seeking re-election.

This was not unexpected, she has been toying with the run for months now, but it is the awaited signal to start a chain of events that will define the make-up of the next City Council.

The next link is who Charter will run. Charter wants to field a candidate, but they only have two people with any legitimate shot at making any difference, Smitherman & Tarbell. Rumors about both have been circulating for months. Smitherman reportedly has already been gaining the required signatures to get on the ballot. Both possible candidates only chance to affect the election

Hiding in the background is the GOP. They have two still waiting in the wings for an endorsement, Painter and Winburn. Painter's candidacy seems to have faded. He made rumblings back last year that he would not run against Mallory. Winburn then get be in the driver's seat. Brinkman's name is being floated around as well. He would do nothing but pull down Pepper and or Winburn, so he would stand to only win a council seat, not the Mayor's office. I don't think he will run for Mayor, but I think he wants to be Mayor of a county wide city government.

If we have a 5 way race with 3 Dems, 1 Charterite, and 1 Republican the battle for the top two spots have a dynamic that turns on three demographics: the black vote, the Westside conservative votes, and the east side moderate/liberals.

The black vote is the most complicated and most likely to be spit over three or even four candidates. Mallory, Reece, Smitherman, and Winburn would all seek to base their support in the black community. Winburn would have the least claim to that, but could still have significant support, drawing it from the other three. Without Smitherman, both Reece and Mallory gain votes. Tarbell is who they both would be hoping gets in the race instead of Smitherman, because he takes virtually no black votes form them, and instead takes huge chunks of Pepper votes and many possible Winburn votes.

The Westside conservatives would go for the GOP label no matter who is there, but some will not go for Winburn because he is black. They will go for Pepper, or if Tarbell is the race they might float to him. Brinkman complicates this even further.

The Eastside moderates are in Pepper's pocket. They might be turned on by Mallory, Tarbell, or maybe even Reece. Brinkman would pick up the few rightwing extremists, but they are mostly on the Westside (or already have fled to the burbs.)

The liberals will also be tested. They would logically lean towards Mallory. They don't hate Pepper or Reece totally, but neither would be their first choice. Mallory will likely keep them, but needs the money of the moderates.

Pepper is the front runner at this point, way ahead of the rest of the field in the primary race. So far he has the top spot locked up. The race is for number two, and it is far early to say who will get it.

Jene Galvin gave an opinion on the race in CityBeat this week and his take on Reece is, shall we say, a bit optimistic. Nate is not even convinced with today's announcement that she is actually going to end up running.

Nick's Picks

Nick Spencer has posted his ideal city council:

1. Me (well, come on, what did you expect?)
2. Fanon Rucker (probably not interested, but he would be great)
3. Laketa Cole (exceptional constituent service, great on Neighborhoods)
4. Jim Tarbell (Commitment to the Center City and the Arts)
5. Dave Crowley (Impeccable Character, Strong Record of Service)
6. Leslie Ghiz (smart, likeable, easy to work with)
7. Damon Lynch III (some really good ideas, represents the unheard voices of our city)
8. Pete Witte (not as bad as you might think, though he has his moments. A working class guy who cares about development and safety)
9. John Connelly (a sincere person with interesting ideas, though I certainly don't agree with many of them).

Now who does Nick leave off off the current list: Sam Malone, David Pepper, Alicia Reece, John Cranley, Chris Smitherman, and Pat Dewine.

Now DeWine got elected to the county commission, so I don't know if Nick would have left him off or not. Pepper and Reece are both likely running for Mayor. Cranley has been toying with something similar but, likely will not. The real losers are Smitherman and Malone. Smitherman gets the special knock because he and Nick both ran on the Charter ticket. Nick is a moderate Replublican and Smitherman is a Democrat, which makes the Charter label rather limited in material impact, but Smitherman has lost some significant support amongst moderates for his defense of extremist boycotters (B and some A's). Malone is a Burress Bigot, so no shock there.

I don't think I could fill out a full slate yet, but I know who on Nick's list I would not vote for: Lynch, Witte, and Connelly.

Mountie First Class Smitherman in Action

Councilman Chris Smitherman is claiming that a company he hired confirms a cop used the "N" word five years ago.

Smitherman said he sought the outside analysis because he felt the city had dropped the ball on the investigation. He said he gave a copy of Sebring's transcript to City Manager Valerie Lemmie.

How Butler used the word, he says, shows a philosophy of policing some communities differently, Smitherman said.

Not everything's about racism, he said. "But this is."

Fangman denies it was the "N" word as does the former officer, but well, of course they would deny it.

I still would like to know from Councilman Smitherman, why they hell is he making this an issue? I can respect you for your single-minded persistence in this, though laugh at it as well, but I don't see the value. Guess what I know. There are bigots and racists on the police force. There are bigots and racists on the staff of 1230 the Buzz too. What exactly are you going to changed by making an issue out of someone saying a word or not 5 years ago? Dudley Doright always gets his man.

Smitherman vs. Elder High School

Greg Korte has a story about Councilman Chris Smitherman's early weeks in office. I am so far not impressed with Smitherman. What I see so far is someone making trouble for trouble's sake. I don't mind someone making politics entertaining, but Smitherman's tone is arrogant. His motives appear good, but his tone comes across like holier-than-thou preacher. He acts like a crusader, bent on bringing down the police chief. He also appears to be wasting the City Manager's time. If Korte's description of his memo writing is true, then I think it might be useful to limit it to one memo a day. If they are information requests, then a large one once a week might go over better in the Lemmie's office. It would really go over better out here in the public if Smitherman did not try and keep his requests quiet. If you are going to rattle cages, then you had better do it out in the open. Otherwise it looks like a shakedown.

Korte was able to get a look at the Elder High memo response. We learn that Elder is indeed the local high school with the most Alumni on the force, but only 76 of the 1,044 officers attended Elder.

Rank/Local HS/No. of PO/Rate
1: Elder - 76 - 7.28%
2: Western Hills - 69 - 6.61%
3: Oak Hills - 46 - 4.41%
4: Withrow - 39 - 3.74%
5: Woodward - 37 - 3.54%
6: Aiken - 36 - 3.45%
7: Roger Bacon - 35 - 3.35%
8: Hughes - 32 - 3.07%
9: Colerain - 27 - 2.59%
10: Walnut Hills - 25 - 2.39%
11: LaSalle - 24 - 2.30%
12: Purcell Marian - 23 - 2.20%
13: Mount Healthy - 22 - 2.11%
14: Seton - 20 - 1.92%
15: St. Xavier - 16 - 1.53%
15(Tie): Princeton - 15 - 1.44%
16: Anderson - 15 - 1.44%
18: Forest Park - 14 - 1.34%
19: Northwest - 13 - 1.25%
20: Moeller - 11 - 1.05%
20(Tie): McNicholas - 11 - 1.05%
Total - 606 - 58.05%
Total of PO - 1,044
Non Cincy HS - 438 - 41.95%

The 606 total might include some duplicates of officers who attended more than one high school. These numbers blow out the Elder myth. The only "fact" that drives the myth is that the number of senior officers who are Elder grades is most likely higher than the rank and file of the force.

3 Blind Mice?

What makes Reece, Cole, and Smitherman think that getting information sooner will do any good, beyond helping out their image in the “black community?” Councilman Chris Smitherman sounds like he is still campaigning with comments like this:

"I want to make it very clear that I am a newly elected official, and I will not tolerate, ever, insubordination," Smitherman told the chief. "I am one of the members of the board of directors of the City of Cincinnati. Last time I looked at it, I am Chief Streicher's boss."

I don't really know what Smitherman is thinking, but he does not manage the police. The City Manager oversees the police, and the City Manager reports to the Mayor. Mr. Smitherman and the rest of City Council are not the boss of the Mayor. The citizens of Cincinnati are however the boss of City Council and the Mayor. We don't tolerate insubordination either. The police don't tolerate it either, unless the FOP president does it on TV.

His Ego Dwarfs His Brain

Well, it appears Chris Smitherman needs to read the NAACP rules before it tries to hold both an elected public office and a leadership role in the NAACP. Now, this concept is moot, since Smitherman will lose, but it goes to illustrate that he will do what ever it takes to further his personal interests over that of the organization he claims to represent.

Refering to his run for council, Marian Spencer said it best:

Marian Spencer, another longtime chapter member who supported Smitherman in his candidacy to take over the group, said the move would be “inappropriate.”

It is plain as day that Smitherman is in the race to further his own career.

COAST Members Looking to Waste More City Money to Benefit Finney

"Attorney" Chris Finney, along with token "residents" of the City of Cincinnati Mark Miller and Tom Brinkman, want to waste more of the Taxpayer's money by subsidizing the "career" of Finney.  They've sent a letter to the City Solicitor as the first step in what likely will be a frivolous lawsuit that has no basis in law. Finney stands to benefit from this if the lawsuit goes on and he can collect legal fees in a settlement or, if he gets an insane judge, an actual positive ruling.

This action is the exectution of the threat issued by Council Member Chris Smitherman and nothing more than is a total waste of time.  It is based on a single word "all" and as I previously blogged, the "all" clause "arguement put forth in the finney letter was fully satisfied when Council's legislative power was exercised with the passing of the rules of council.  All Legisilative powers included giving others in the government the power to carryout the charter.  Let me quote my own blog post linked above:

Section 5a of Article II of the City Charter states "The Council shall organize itself and conduct its business as it deems appropriate...." That's what they did with a 5-3 vote (one member was absent.)

Section 2 of Article III of the City Charter state "The Mayor shall preside over all meetings of the council, but shall not have a vote on the council."

I am far from a legal scholar, but any educated person who understands the core basis of Representative Democracy and Divided Government understands that Finney has no case. They can dislike the rules of Council and they can voice their dislike, but unless they get a majority of votes, they have to learn to deal with losing.

Side Note: Originally Smitherman stated he was going to be the having Finney send the letter if Council didn't cave to his threats.  Why is this letter written with Miller and Brinkman as the complainants and not Smitherman?  Where's Chris Smitherman's name on the letter?  He is obviously, based on his original grandstanding incident, in cahoots with this cabal, but why the lack of his name?  Is there a misrepresentation here?  Is there a conflict? Is there any possible dereliction of duty as a Member of City Council? Should this be investigated by the authorites?

How Did Chris Smitherman Get Elected?

I am extremely disappointed that Chris Smitherman was elected to City Council, but I am not concerned with him actually having any significant influence on the direction of the city.  I lack that concern because of the seven Democrats now on council along with the Mayor in solid control of the government.  All we citizens are going to have to do is put up with his antics.  I'm wondering what he will do for his first performance.  I'm hoping for a little David Mamet.

Anyway...How did Chris get back on Council?  I think the answer is quite simple, but there are two parts.

1) His name recognition as a former Councilman and as local NAACP Chairman got him votes on a low/moderate level across the city.  He never placed below 18th in any ward, and only was that low on the East Side.
2) The main reason was the turnout of African American voters.  Specifically in Ward 7 (Bond Hill/Roselawn) where Smitherman was 1st, with over 3,700 votes.  Ward 7's turnout was 42.43% up 6.33% from 2009.

His COAST endorsement I am going to say was meaningless. If he gained any votes from it, then he likely lost just as many, if not more.  The higher turnout was the main factor.  He still barely got on, placing a very weak 8th, so when the Mayoral election rolls around, he may face trouble with more conservatives voting if there is actually a contended race.

I honestly hope Smitherman behaves. If that sounds likes I am considering him childlike, well, I do.  His track record is not good on this front and I fear he will take grandstanding or school yard threats to new heights, since that is all he will be able to do.  He won't actually introduce meaningful legislation, because he can't get it passed without cooperation from others. Since his not known for playing well with others some level of circus is ahead for Cincinnati City Council.  I hope it is only a one ring circus and not three.

Mr. Racebaiter

Chris Smitherman wasted no time in using the death of a child as fodder in latest crusade. Can't Smitherman might a point about in justice without making it about race? This was just just not necessary to try and compare.

"Here today, we have a white woman down in Clermont County who killed her daughter, clearly endangerment of a child and we have the prosecutors saying not one charge will be levied against this woman," said Smitherman.

"And, at the same time, we have a an African-American woman in Avondale who's locked up right now for leaving her children in the closet," said Smitherman. "We have a prosecutor saying he's going to lock her up for 100 years."

This does NOTHING to improve race relations and it instead divides people more.

NAACPCOAST

Kevin Osborne uncovers the unseemliness of the Chris Smitherman and Chris Finney relationship.

He has another blog post adding to the print article.

Yeah, I really don't see how anyone can see the Finney-Smitherman union as anything other than a "Fuck You" to the GLBT community.

Is Smitherman tilting the local NAACP to the right on some issues to appease Finney? This article puts that thought in my mind. That aside, I think the Enquirer needs to stop reacting to every press release from Smitherman.

Smitherman Running For Council

Well, I guess Chris Smitherman has money to waste because he's running for city council again. I will be the first to say that he will not win. Smitherman is out for Smitherman. He just recently fought a harsh and nasty fight for President of the local NAACP, which I guess he feels so strong about that he would quit it in less than a year, if elected. What an ego.

Local Cincinnati Area Races to Follow on Election Night

Beyond turnout in Hamilton County, there are several local elections to follow this Tuesday on Election Night that I will be intently watching.  Not all of these will be nail biting cliffhangers, but they will have elements and details that can give evidence on how 21st century politics are working here in Hamilton County, Ohio.

1. OH-1 Landsman (D) vs. Chabot (R): This is of course the most interesting race in the area.  This Republican gerrymandered district is in violation of the Ohio Constitution, but in the effort to hide their power grab they made this district very close to a Toss-up.  Republicans claim this is a Dem+2 district, but that is just not true.  This is at best maybe a Dem+.05 based on historical results.  The strong Conservative Western HamCo was replaced with the more moderated Eastern HamCo and ALL of the City.  This gives an advantage to the Dem, but that advantages assumes people vote in reasonable numbers.  If turnout is strong, close to that of 2018, this should be a narrow win for the Dem.  However, since this is such a closely divided district, a small shift in turnout could make it an even narrower win for the Republican.  This race could go late into night without a declared winner, but the writing could be on the wall as the suburbs should report earlier than the city proper.
2. Hamilton County Commissioner Dumas (D) vs Smitherman vs O'Neill (R):  This race is going to be very interesting, but not because there is much doubt as to who will win.  With a Three-Way race, the Democratic candidate should be able to win.  The interesting part will be how the two Republican candidates, Smitherman and O'Neill perform.  Only one will be marked as a Republican and that is what makes this case interesting.  Will Party ID be enough for O'Neill to get 2nd place or will Smitherman's targeted marketing work to get a large number of Republican voters for him to get 2nd place.  Also, the other situation to watch, will it be a close 1-2 race and distant 3rd or will the 2nd and 3rd each get larger chunks.  There will have to be a complete disaster in HamCo for Dems to lose this race, that is not impossible, however there is no local evidence to suggests that Dems turnout has cratered.  The Dem candidate likely won't get over 50%, but it would be somewhat surprising for either Republican to break 40%. Also, I will be watching this race since I am hoping Smitherman loses big time and this becomes the last we see of him in local politics.
3. Hamilton County Auditor: Brigid Kelly (D) vs. Tom Brinkman (R):  Tom Brinkman is someone everyone should find it easy to root against.  He's a hardcore right wing fascist and has been way longer than the Trumpists were even a glint in Steve Bannon's eye.  Brinkman does not appear to have much of a ground campaign going.  Like his failed campaign for Cincinnati City Council last year, he appears to be phoning it in.  I'd surmise he ran just in case there was some 100 year flood of a Republican wave in Hamilton County.  He's not likely to see that this Tuesday and is running against a very organized and solid Dem candidate.  In this race I'm interested in how much it goes with the partisan breakdown like other races or does it stand out.
4. Hamilton County Clerk of Courts: Pavan Parikh (D) vs. Steven Goodin (R):Among the county wide offices on the ballot in 2022, this one could be the most competitive, at least on paper.  Goodin has a broader appeal and name recognition in the City and amongst moderates. Parikh has the incumbency advantage, but as an appointee, having not been elected before.  Goodin ran for Cincinnati City Council last fall and did not place well (14th). Steve Goodin is capable of running a centrist race, but he's gone instead with a confrontational race, picking Social Media fights and going negative suggesting controversies. Parikh is running with the Democratic slate and as a team, that unit did amazingly well in the City in 2021.  If it carries into the county as well, he should do well.

I have strong feeling, "vibes" as the term has been used this cycle among the political junkie crowd, about this year's election.  I can't tell you anything valuable about the statewide races or how the Congressional races will add up.  Locally, however, I feel like there is NOT going to be a big "Republican Wave."  Locally that would mean Republican turnout surges and Democratic Turnout reduces.  I would easily bet a $100 that it won't happen.  Without that Red Wave, Republicans only have a couple of seats in the county that are close enough and divided up enough to win, assuming turnout "vibes."

On election night, the thing to watch is what I call the "Flop."  That's the first output by the Board of Elections that shows the votes from Absentee/Early voting.  By that point, real-time Turnout should be published as well, so we'll be able to judge if Early Absentee/Early voting is going to be an indicator of the races or will it be segmented, like 2020, which means we'll have to see how vote starts to come in from election day to get the first writing on the wall moment to give an indication of how the night will go.  I'll be covering turnout all day on Tuesday, so look for a Blog post and social media posts with updates. Good luck to the candidates and be sure to vote!