Tuesday, November 01, 2011

One Week Out: Council Election Preview

We are just one week away from the November General Election and there are things locked up about the election for Cincinnati City Council, but there are seats that are clearly in play.  Here's my take on what is locked up and what is in play:

Locked Up Winners:
Roxanne Qualls
Chris Bortz

Heavy Favorites to Win:
Cecil Thomas
Leslie Ghiz

Likely Unless Odd Things Happen:
Charlie Winburn
Laure Quinlivan

In the Mix:
Kevin Flynn
Wayne Lippert
Amy Murray
P.G. Sittenfeld
Wendell Young

Still in the Mix, But With Higher Hurdles:
Mike Allen
Nicholas Hollan
Jason Riveiro
Chris Seelbach
Yvette Simpson
Christopher Smitherman

Out of the Running:
Catherine Smith Mills
Jacqueline Allen
Kathy Atkinson
Patricia McCollum
Sandra Queen Noble

Not that much can change over the next week, except for the turnout. The turnout is expected to be low compared to national election years, but conventional wisdom would indicate that it should compare to what the 2007 council election drew out. I would say the more new voters go to the polls the more likely that non-incumbents will gain votes. It is easy for incumbents to win, but difficult for non-elected incumbents to get on without lots of new support. We have three appointees on council and all three, even with the amounts of money the Republican appointees have, need voter turnout to help them.


  1. Absolutely disagree with Brian. As the only first-time candidate endorsed by the Enquirer & City Beat, having raised over $100,000 and having knocked of over 6,000 door.....I think we're going to surprise you on Election Day.

  2. Really? Chris Seelbach in the same category as Mike Allen and Hollan? I would move Chris up to In the Mix and bump Wayne Lippert down. Despite him already on council (not elected mind you) he has done virtually no campaigning except for yard signs and within his base.

  3. A couple points of clarification-
    an Enquirer article a couple days ago said Seelbach was the first openly gay council candidate. Actually, the first openly gay council candidate was John Schlagetter who ran in 2001 and 2003. Also, while it is true that Seelbach is the only first time candidate THIS year to get both CBeat and Enquirer endorsements, in 2009 Nicholas Hollan was the only first time candidate to get both CBeat and Enquirer endorsements.

  4. I think that turnout will be pretty high -- given the amount of energy and money spent on Issue 2. Indeed, we already have pretty strong early vote/ absentee turnout even though there have been very, very limited extended hours.

    _IF_ those who get out to vote no on 2 either vote the Dem sample ballot or the AFL-CIO endorsed candidate list, then the results can be very different.

  5. @Observer. I've never said that I'm the first openly gay candidate. Alway said I'll be the first openly gay person elected in Southwest Ohio and represent more people than any other openly gay person in the State of Ohio (the 7th largest in the country).

    Also, with the election only 5 days away, I don't think it's unreasonable to say "I'm the only first-time candidate endorsed by both the Enquirer and City Beat" and for people to understand that means THIS election cycle.


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