Monday, November 07, 2011

Council Election Predictions!

There are many ways to make council predictions.  You can crunch the numbers.  You can throw darts or pull names from a hat.  I've run the numbers, but running the numbers assumes I know who is going to vote.  I can only guess at that.  Those guesses include the historical facts that elected incumbents rarely lose council races here in Cincinnati. Un-elected incumbents have lost, but tend to win as well.  So, if you run the numbers, you tend to point to the likelihood that we will not see much change on council.

I'm not going to predict zero change, but conventional wisdom indicates that there are only three possible seats in play.  Who might loose depends on who votes, so the only prediction I can make is the following:

I predict we will have one new member on council once the votes are totaled tomorrow night.  (I'm not going to name names, because I don't like being wrong.)

If there is more than one new member, I will be surprised.  The only way I can see that happening is a drop in Conservative votes or a big influx of more Moderate and Liberal votes.  That's the rub: Turnout.  It is almost always the only definitive indicator that can be factored into predictions.

What are your predictions?  Sound off in comments.


  1. I'll agree with your predictions, though I hope Ghiz loses big time. I'd like to see Seelbach win too.

    Also, lose rhymes with ooze, while loose rhymes with noose. The lose/loose errors are major pet peeves of mine... :-)

  2. I have no idea how to predict this crap. I am absolutely amazed at the anti-Quinlivan campaigning, tho. She seems to really scare the HamCoGOP.
    Wonder how effective they'll be.

  3. What anti-Quinlivan actions have you seen or heard about.

  4. Got these mailers, once and twice from the Ohio GOP & a robo-call whose source I didn't catch.
    oh, yeah, & COA T saying she is one of the folks at the core of _all_ our problems.

  5. I would say that there will be two new members, my guess: PG and Chris Seelbach. I think Wendell Young and Wayne Lippert will be knocked off. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Young says on and Murray is kicked off.


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