Prediction Monday #2

With media endorsements starting to come in: Enquirer, Downtowner, we can have round two of Prediction Monday. Here is how I see it:

Locks:
Cranley, Qualls, Crowley

Almost locks:
No One

Likely on council:
Bortz, Harris, Winburn

In the running:
Berding, Ghiz, Monzel, Thomas

Long shots:
Kaup, Eby, Fischer

The rest of the field has no shot. The betting man's game will be on who will come in last. The bottom usually has the independents, so look for one of them to take the last sport, but this year there are several endorsed candidates who haven't done campaigning to get the votes. The "honor" of being last should garner some type of award. I may create one, just for such an achievement.

Enquirer Endorsements Are Out

The Enquirer has picked their Nine and there are some interesting picks and non-picks. The list:

Chris Bortz
Laketa Cole
John Cranley
David Crowley
John Eby
Leslie Ghiz
Greg Harris
Chris Monzel
Cecil Thomas

The Enquirer did something very honest when it comes to Cole. I would surmise they had picked her prior to the story about the "physical altercation with another woman" came out last night. They didn't revoke the endorsement, at least not yet, but in the article's paragraph she got 2 postive sentences, and then 4 sentences on the scandal, ending with a call for Cole to give a full explanation. I hope that if Cole doesn't hold a press conference with a reasonable explanation by the end of the day Monday, the Enquirer should step up and revoke the endorsement.

The main surprises to me was in who the Enquirer did not endorse: Qualls, Winburn, Berding, and Fischer. All fit the traditional pick of the Enquirer, being more of establishment candidates. Harris and Crowley are two that I am very, very pleased they endorsed, but it goes against type for the Conservative Enquirer to pick two Progressive candidates. I am glad they have a better mix than their 2005 endorsements, which was a very Conservative Slate.

The endorsements from the newspapers in the past have influenced certain voters, but in recent years that influence has wanned. In a year with more than 9 candidates who can make a case as qualified choices, will voters pay more attention to who the Enquirer, the Post, and CityBeat pick for council?

If I were to pick one candidate who may get on council because of this pick it is Greg Harris. Greg has been running a very strong campaign. He has been in the mix in most polls so far, giving him one of the lower half of the 9 slots. This kind of backing I think will solidify his hold on what the polls have been saying. He has reached a great position in the race with about 10 days to go. Some hard charging and as much media buys as possible and I think he gets on.

Ghiz may also back into a seat on council, but she will have to get the Westside Conservative vote. She has lost most of the moderate and progressive votes she had last time. Westside Conservatives read the Enquirer.

Who else is hurt or helped by the Enquirer?

Cole's Drama Outlined

Joe Wessels outlines more of the drama in the Laketa Cole scandal. It appears her boyfriend has a bench warrant for missing a court appearance.

Isn't Sam Malone single???????

Cole Train Derailed?

Council member Laketa Cole allegedly got into a fight with a pregnant 23 year old woman. What is most interesting is that Cole allegedly tried to have police keep her name out of the police report. It was thought that she was both a victim and suspect in the incident, so the confusion is pretty thick at this point.

What will this do for her chances to win back her council seat? Will anyone care she got into a fight and that allegedly resulted in scratches to the face of both the 23 year old as well as to Cole herself? Does this maybe move her from a lock to the bubble? Does this in some minds make her a better candidate? Scandals make the political world jump, but does the public care?

Give Me Fat, Or Give Me Death

Yates is going way too far with a bill to ban "trans fat". I understand we need to be more healthy, but this idea goes way over the edge.

Now, I am sure the smokers bitching about the smoking ban will take glee in saying this is the next slippery slope, but sorry Joe Camel, smoking doesn't equate to a form of food.

Details...Details...Details

Ok, there has been an anouncement of a deal on the Banks, but we don't have the details. We also don't have approval from City Council or the County Commission. This article implies something has happened. The Banks project has many hurdles ahead. I wonder if it will be set up for a pre-election approval vote? I hope the Mayor prevents the council from making a bad decision, just to get a good photo-op.

Prediction Monday?

Anyone want to predict council, yet again? I'm thinking the locks are:

Cranley, Qualls

Almost locks:

Cole, Crowley

Then the rest are just to close to predict, but those in the running:

Bortz, Berding, Ghiz, Monzel, Thomas, Harris, Winburn, Cooper, Fischer

Long shots:

Kaup, Bates, Eby

Who am I missing?

Also, shall we do this weekly until election day? Refine the list down a bit by Nov 5th maybe?