Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Council Election: What the Hell Happened?

Well, the council on the surface has appeared to have flipped to a majority Conservative 5. I think we need a new name, the rebirth of the Fiscal Five maybe? I don't know what we are going to call them, but what ever it is, with Charlie Winburn making up the fifth member, I pity the other four ever getting a trustworthy answer out of the nutty soon-to-be council member.

The bad news from the council race was the loss of Greg Harris. It is really a terrible thing to lose Greg. He was a level headed council member who consistently worked to find good solutions and to date has issued the only viable 2010 budget plan that I hope people look at even after Greg leaves office. I hope to see Greg stay around politics in Cincinnati, we need more people like him running for office.

The question from Greg's loss is: what happened? Well, I've done some Ward totals comparison analysis between 2007 and 2009 and I see two trends.

1) The more conservative wards came out in big strength yesterday, especially on the East side with Mt. Washington, Mt. Lookout, and Hyde Park (Wards 1,4,5) with a 6.08%, 4.40%, & 3.85% increase in voter turnout. Key West side wards generally increased between 2 and 3% over 2007 as well, adding to the strength of the former minority 4.

2) African-American Wards generally only moderately increased, or in the case of Avondale (Ward 13), West End/OTR (Ward 17), and the West End (Ward 18) all decreased from 2007, with Ward 18 dropping a whopping -1.21%.

With the increase of conservative voters, liberals like Greg were left off more ballots and with the loss of the African-American voter turnout, Greg was put behind the 8-Ball. Cole's drop also supports this idea, as she was ninth after the final, yet unofficial numbers were reported last night.

In the coming weeks I likely look over the numbers more and compare trends with the Mayor's race and Issue 9.

Election Post-Mortem

The final election results are in. Once again, Roxanne Qualls was the top vote-getter. Greg Harris has been ousted from Council, and Charlie Winburn and Laurie Quinlivan will join the fray. What does all this mean?

First, the political breakdown is as follows: Council now has three Democrats plus a Charterite/Democrat; one independent (Berding); three Republicans; and a Charterite who leans Republican.

Next, the big question is on the 2010 budget. Part of that will depend on what happens with property tax. Crowley and Harris, as lame ducks, could be in favor of ending the property tax "rollback," which would constitute a significant tax increase. If that's so, a tax increase would pass if just three members of the newly constituted Council were in agreement. (The property tax millage must be finalized next week, before the new Council takes office.)

But if the property tax isn't raised, the budget will need to be reduced by around 50 million dollars. I thought Greg Harris had offered a plan that made sense: go to the unions (including the FOP) for concessions in 2010, with reimbursement made in 2011 and 2012. The problem, of course, is that 5 members have apparently made promises that there would be no police or fire layoffs. If they're unwilling to change their positions, then concessions are out of the question. (If I were a union member, and I knew that my employer would not, under any circumstance, reduce the size of its workforce, I'd vote against concessions). That may mean huge cuts in services: parks and recreation; health clinics; reduced trash collection.

I suspect Mayor Mallory learned a lesson as an incumbent executive. He knew he had won the race and, he acknowledges, he didn't campaign very hard. But this race wasn't about him. It was about the Council he'd be working with. Mayor Mallory is an extremely likeable guy who campaigns well. He needed to be on the trail more to support the Dems for Council. This was the first time Mallory was in this position, so the error is certainly understandable. The mayor will come to regret that his coattails weren't a little bit longer this year. But his personality and affability may make him uniquely able to bridge the divisions amongst the current Council to build a majority that can govern sensibly and effectively.

Jeff Berding may be the key to a governing majority. If he wishes to mend fences with the Democratic party, he may join forces with Qualls, Quinlivan, Thomas, and Cole. But he's been treated badly enough that it's unlikely he'll be looking to make peace. Instead, the Council Dems will have to find a way to offer him an olive branch if they wish to garner his vote on important issues.

Council committee chairs are appointed by the mayor, so expect little changes there. That means Cole probably retains the gavel in Finance. But membership (and vice-chairs) are elected by Council, so there should be some shake-ups in the composition of the committees.

Finally, there's one thing I don't understand, perhaps because I've only lived in Cincinnati since 2000: why does Roxanne Qualls do so well in these field races? Don't get me wrong. Qualls is smart as hell, and I enjoy hearing her pontificate on public policy; she resembles liberals who are about 30-40 years older than she is. (Qualls often reminds me of Daniel Patrick Moynihan.) But Qualls isn't terribly charismatic, at least not in the traditional politician sense of the word. And "smart" doesn't always get you very far with the electorate; we live in a county that twice sent George W. Bush to the White House. It's got to be more than mere name recognition. What's the answer? Why does Qualls do so well with so many demographic and geographic groups across the city?

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Council Race

Alright, yet another post.

98.50% of City precincts have reported. I'm not sure the last 1.5 percent will change the running order much. If not, the order of finish is:

Qualls
Thomas
Bortz
Berding
Ghiz
Monzel
Cole
Winburn
Quinlivan.

Greg Harris is in 10th place, a full .7% behind Quinlivan.

This Council is going to present a much greater challenge for Mayor Mallory with respect to building a governing coalition. I'm not sure that I see either Winburn or Quinlivan being consistent party-line voters.

Mayor's Race: Mallory Wins

Ok. One more post. If you didn't see it on WCPO: Brad Wenstrup has conceded the race to Mayor Mallory. We should thank Wenstrup for being willing to serve his community, even if he was ultimately rebuffed by the voters.

And congratulations to Mayor Mark Mallory. I voted for him last time, and did so again this time. His first job will be to rebuild a fractured Council. But his talents may be uniquely suited to doing just that. Time will tell.

This Doesn't Mean "Yes" On Streetcars

Issue 9 is clearly going to fail. But I'd better not hear streetcar supporters tell me this means Cincinnatians favor streetcars.

You told us that Issue 9 was about more than streetcars. It was about all passenger rail. And even more broadly, it was about our form of government. We're supposed to, you told us, trust our elected officials to make these decisions.

I remain relatively ambivalent about the streetcar. I thought Issue 9 represented bad government and voted against it accordingly. But don't tell me my vote translates to approval of a streetcar.

No on Nine Winning Big!

The votes are almost all in, and I think Issue Nine will fail! A last
minute prediction.

Live-Blogging Results

I'm in the office late tonight, so I'll be live-blogging election results as they're available from the BOE. I will continue to update this post as the night goes on; feel free to use this as a comment thread, as well.

8:10 PM: HamCo BOE has released some results. 0 precincts reporting, but constitutes 6% of registered voters. Must be absentees.
  • Issue 9: losing, 51.72-48.25. Too close to call.
  • Issue 8: Passing, 65-35.
  • Mayor: Wenstrup and Mallory in a dead heat.
  • Council: VERY early results: Harris losing, all other incumbents winning, plus Winburn and Quinlivan.
10:25: Still holding at about 10% of precincts city-wide, 5% county-wide.
  • Mayor: Mallory, 56-43. Expect this lead to grow through the night.
  • Council: Harris is first out, but only by .01%. Cole is in ninth. Winburn and Quinlivan in 7th and 8th, respectively. Twenty-five percent of all council ballots cast thus far have under-votes.
  • County-wide levies are all winning by a healthy margin, except Issue 4, which is losing 51-49. It'll be close, but I expect it'll pass.
  • The Cincinnati school levee also passing, 55-45.
10:30: Finally, updated results. 16% of precincts county-wide, 23 % city-wide.
  • Mayor: The race tightens again. Wenstrup with a narrow lead now.
  • Council: Holding as before. Qualls doing extremely well.
  • School board: Looks like Bates, Cooper-Reed, Ingram, and White. Haap lagging well behind in 11th, beating only Curtis Wells.
  • All county-wide levies are now passing.
  • Issue 9 is failing, 54 to 46.
Honestly, folks, I don't know what to make of the mayor's race. I don't know what precincts have reported in, but the fact that Issue 9 is now being soundly defeated and the mayor's race is this tight is leaving me perplexed.

10:40: More results. 55% of city precincts; 35% county-wide.
  • Mayor: Mallory back to a ten-point lead. I'm really curious now as to which precincts the last batch of votes came from.
  • Council: These votes are from heavily Democratic wards. Cole's up to 5th, Quinlivan to 5th. Ghiz would be last on: Watson first out; Harris in 10th.
  • All county-wide levies passing. School board levy passing.
  • Issue 9 failing, 56-44.
11:10: 78% of city precincts.
  • Mayor: Still Mallory, but a little tighter: 53-46.
  • Council: Order: Qualls Thomas Bortz Berding Ghiz Monzel Winburn Quinlivan. Harris in 10th, down by .5%, which is looking like a lot right now.
  • Issue 9 being handily defeated, 56 - 49.
  • All county and the Cincinnati school levies are passing.
At this point, you've got the news outlets covering the races. I've got an early morning and am headed to bed. Look for some analysis from Griff and me tomorrow.

Some Random Election Thoughts

As Election Day winds down, I had a few thoughts to share.

First, I hope Greg Harris retains his seat. Conventional wisdom holds that as an appointee, he is the most vulnerable of the incumbent Council members (though I suspect it may be a long night for Jeff Berding), but Harris was the only candidate to offer a specific path forward to closing the looming budget gap. His approach to police and firefighter concessions--pay cuts (but no layoffs) next year that would be restored in 2011 and 2012--is a long-term approach that should be acceptable to the unions. I don't agree with Harris on everything (and particularly not on his stance on "environmental justice"), but he is thoughtful and overall, an asset on City Council.

Second, I hope County voters see the merit in Issue 4 and approve it. The levy--the former Drake levy--funds the Drug Court and other important programs that provide avenues to rehabilitation and re-entry. Drug addiction is a problem that nearly anyone, given the right circumstances, could be susceptible to. I can't tell you how many people I've represented for unlawfully possessing prescription drugs whose addiction started with a legal prescription following an injury of some sort. And even street drugs can afflict nearly anyone. (Have Cincinnatians really forgotten Josh Hamilton already?)

Finally, I'm hoping we can have a reprieve of the current hyper-political climate, at least for a few months, before it's time for the 2010 campaigns to begin in earnest.

Congratulations, New Lawyers

This past Friday, the Ohio Supreme Court announced that 957 applicants achieved passing scores on the July 2009 bar exam. They will be sworn in during public ceremonies in Columbus on November 9. The state's passage rate was 81.3 percent overall, and 87.8 percent for first-time test-takers.

Locally, University of Cincinnati graduates had an 89 percent pass rate overall (first among the nine Ohio law schools), and 91% (third) for first-time test-takers. Dayton's overall bar pass rate was 78 percent, with 82 percent of first-timers passing. NKU (Chase) grads passed at rates of 73 percent overall and 84 percent for first-timers.

Congratulations to all the newly-minted attorneys. Please immediately remit your registration fee to the Supreme Court.

Lowest Shot of the Campaign

If you want proof that Mary Kuhl is a complete jerk read no further than this tweet post from earlier today. She really is unhinged and needs to go away. I hope every Member of Westwood Concern, PWR PAC, and the Westwood Civic Associate takes note of her comments. She is a cancer on the Westside and if she is ever listened to again, she will drag down good people.

Strong Finish

Something else to watch for, which I'll comment more on tomorrow, is how the GOP council candidates finish. Assuming Leslie Ghiz returns to council, which is likely, then speculation turns to when will see leave council. She's on many people's lists for GOP candidates for the Hamilton County Commissioner's race next year.

If Ghiz ran for higher office, she would likely resign her seat on Council and her replacement would likely fall to either George Zamary or Amy Murray. Murray might have the inside track if the GOP wants to keep the female vote more in play, but traditionally the top vote getter in the last election gets the appointment, except for the case of Ghiz, who beat Chris Monzel in her first election in 2003, but when Pat DeWine's seat opened up, Ghiz was overlooked in favor of Monzel. Ghiz's vote total that year was less than 1,000 greater than Monzel, so one might think if Zamary or Murray far outpaced the other, then the appointment would be more forthcoming to the higher finisher.

If the Earth aligns right, this would be moot if Ghiz loses. I am still wishing for that, but am not holding out hope.

Mullane's to Reopen

I'm sorry to interrupt election blogging, but this news seemed too good not to pass along. (It's actually relatively old news, but I'm just learning of it, and haven't seen any of the usual suspects mention it yet, either.)

It appears that Mullane's is going to reopen. Mullane's was a small, eclectic spot on Race Street near Garfield that closed in 2002. It'll be in a different space, but will still be called Mullane's Parkside Cafe.

You can check out the "Friends of Mullane's" website here, and become a Facebook friend of Mullane's here.

Mullane's was such a great place. I remember ending a date there with dessert. (Given that I'm still single, the relationship clearly didn't take off, but I'm not blaming Mullane's.) I think a lot of downtown and OTR residents are excited about the restaurant's return.

Who's Voting - Some Analysis

Plum Street Studios has an analysis of some of the general trends of absentee voting, which includes early voting. The Conventional Wisdom is that absentee voters tend to be more likely white, older, and more Republican. With the increase of early voting, I think those numbers are less true on the age element, so I believe Democratic absentee voters have increased in recent years, but I think they are still likely to be white voters.

The Enquirer's Greg Korte gives his analysis of the numbers and believes voting trends will hold true from the 2007 election, discounting the younger demographic that turned for the 2008 presidential election. It think it will be clear that the 2008 numbers will not hold up this year and the average age will rise significantly, but I believe it will be lower than in 2007, which I think puts the vote up in the air on a few points. I believe revolves around who the younger African-Americans will vote for, which logic would dictate helps African-American candidates, but I don't see it shaking up the big picture. Maybe 1,000 votes would be in play, something on that scale. 1,000 more votes may swing one candidate up a spot, but unless thats 10th to 9th, it will not make a big difference. It may be the difference between Winburn and Watson getting the open spot.

All of this could be totally wrong and 2008 voter registration movement may carry the voter turnout in the City up from 2007. It goes back to GOTV and in local elections there tends to not be much of that type of effort, so the CW of past elections wins out. We'll have an idea in the morning.

The Polls Are Open

The Polls opened up in Ohio this morning and will remain open until 7:30 PM tonight. Be sure to check that your polling station as not changed via the BOE website's poll search.

If you have an absentee ballot, you can still return it, but it must be received by the Board of Elections before 7:30 PM tonight. You best bet is to hand deliver it. The Hamilton County Board of Elections is located at 824 Broadway, Cincinnati, OH 45202.

Monday, November 02, 2009

Seven

That's the number of messages from robo-calls that were on my answering machine today. Wow.

Interestingly, two of these were about Jeff Berding. One was from David Crowley, reminding me that "Jeff Berding is not a Democrat." The other was from Eric Kearney (a Democrat), supporting Jeff Berding.

I'll be glad when tomorrow is over.

Queen City Survey Signs Off

Dan from Queen City Survey posted yesterday that his blog is ending. He may spin off some of his featured content in other forms, but the blog will end, at least for now. Good Luck Dan and I hope to keep reading your interesting take on Cincinnati in other forms.

TV's Here to Keep You Ignorant

I guess I should thank John Kiesewetter for reporting on TV's continued indifference to society, but I'm not sure John has a problem with that. It is an injustice to the community that local TV stations will provide close to no coverage of important local elections. It is sad that the stations will still get more complaints about interrupting "So You Think You Can Dance?" for two minutes than calls wondering why they are not covering the fate of State Issues #2 and #3. What's ironic is that he mentions "V" the remade TV show that includes a totalitarian take over of the news media. That part of the fictional TV show is much closer to reality than not.

Monzel Lies in Campaign Ad

So, I disagree with Chris Monzel on most things, but I respected him for being a person of personal principle. Well, now he's lying in his campaign TV spot about the streetcar, so that respect has gone out the window. Where does he lie:

1. The streetcar does not just go a "few blocks" as he put it. No matter how you want to define blocks, saying that from the Riverfront to Clifton is a few blocks is like saying the Ohio River is a tiny creek.
2. Building the Streetcar will benefit the entire city and region. The jobs created to build it will come from across the city. The property value increases with result in more tax revenue for the city, which benefits the entire city. Monzel knows that a strong central core of a city is critical to being prosperous
3. The projected cost is 185 million, not 200 million. I guess he could claim a rounding error there, but seriously, come on...
4. Monzel clearly implies the city would be funding the full 185 million, which Monzel knows to be false. The Streetcar plan calls for Federal and State funding that will make up the bulk of the project. That money will not come for anything else, so there is no money to divert to a pet project he wants to use to buy off votes.

If you are against the Streetcars, fine, I can agree to disagree with you, but those I've talked with who are either unsure about it or just against it, don't lie about the plan or about the goals. Here Monzel knowingly makes false statements about elements of the plan and overwhelmingly misleads on everything else. That's a lie where I come from. Spinning details in politics is a gray line, but Monzel knows better and has held a higher standard in the past. This is a new low for him. I guess he's worried about his re-election chances and wants to get every ignorant voter to the polls he can. This type of ad is not worthy of a candidate. If you've heard this type of tactic in the past, most of the time its from a 3rd party group, who tend to do the dirty work in place of the candidate. Monzel gets dirty all on his own.

Charlie Don't Surf

So I take that either Charlie Winburn's robo-call targeting African-American voters is valid and Winburn would support the Mayor's Majority on council, or he is pandering and lying to the African-American community in hopes they won't notice his Republican political stances. Charlie is claiming he voted for Obama, but is siding with the hard right conservative FOP senior leaders who are totally negative on the city and have been the biggest problem with police relations with the African-American community for years. Some of these yahoos would just as soon drop Napalm on certain parts of the city and start over, than actually get off their duffs and protect and serve all of the citizens in this city.

I really hope people don't fall for this, but it unfortunately works with elderly people, who are one of the biggest targets robo-callers hope to reach. I hope some tech-savvy grannies read this blog.

Cincinnati Opera Online Auction Begins

Check out the items up for bid in the Cincinnati Opera's Online Auction.

Also, don't forget the Cincy Opera will be having the Opera Ball After-Party on November 21st, so buy your tickets now ($30 pre-sale, $40 at the door).