Cincinnati City Council Election October 2023 Update

The election is two weeks away and for City Council, we have no change. We are still going to have 8 Democrats on City Council. The largest majority for a single party in many decades. The right wing is seething over this and leftists are angry about not getting their way with a tiny number of supporters. There is a real race for the last two spots. I personally can see three ways for it turn out:

1. Liz Keating gets a bigger boost from incumbency and short ticket Republican voting and edges higher (6th or 7th place), pushing the last spot to an Albi-Walsh race.

2. Democratic turnout surges and the power of the slate is bigger with Issue 1 increasing turnout into the upper 30s percentage range and leaves Keating on the outside.

3. A three person race ensures; with Keating, Albi, and Walsh in a very close race that goes late into the night or even relies on provisional ballots to decide.

As usual, the flop on election night is what is the most interesting predictor. The flop, as I consider it, is the initial report the Hamilton County BOE makes on election night that reports the Early and Absentee vote totals.  This occurs fairly early in the evening, sometimes even before 8 PM.  With early voting a significant share from across the city, the initial results are unlikely to change if the variances between candidates are large enough. This year, that will be the tell for Keating.  If she is anywhere other than 10th place, she has a good shot.  If she is in 10th place, then she needs to be VERY close to the 9th place candidate.  As Republicans are generally not voting early in as large of numbers as Dems, she would stand to get a better surge of votes, especially with a spike of short ticket voting, from the election day votes.  With fewer Republicans in the City, that may not be enough.  Especially, since her two primary competitors, Albi and Walsh, would more than likely NOT be candidates a moderate or conservative voter would consider including on their ballot.

Issue 22 is not easily predictable.  The Support of the Democratic party and the silence from the Republican party make for a favorable outlook for passage, but it depends on turnout and if people vote down the ballot on most things.

Issue 23 should win with ease.  It is a reasonable measure that creates some improvements to the election process and operation of the City Council.

Issue 24 will very likely fail. No one wants to vote for a income tax increase. Add to that the issue is just another leftist scheme to force policy to the city without vetting the details of the plan and creating something that would intentionally tie the hands of future city councils is not a good idea.

Statewide Issues and 1 and 2 have one poll showing both with decent support.  Polling is not something to put much faith into, especially a single poll, but this poll is consistent with prior polling on the abortion issue generally in Ohio. There is no reason to expect a big drop in support for Issue 1, especially if turnout matches the August special election.

I am annoyed with the extreme level of propaganda from people against Issue 22. They have limited financial support, but the talking points that are being used by the anti-22 team online is either massively misleading or it is so generalized that it has no meaning. I am very disappointed with some individuals that have signed on with the Smitherman/COAST cabal leading the anti-22 efforts.  They have what I can best consider an emotional attachment to keeping the rail road and not a logical or analytical reasoning for their position. Fear that they can't control it seems more of their concern than the better financial position the city will obtain with the sale.

There have been few other outside groups with significant endorsements widely reported this year.  I can find no FOP endorsements and WVXU reports Liz Keating got a Charter endorsement, but other than a Xitter post about a fundraiser for Keating, I didn't find much on their support. I hear many complaints from Republicans and others about not having other candidates with diverse ideas to chose from, but Republicans and Charter have the means to support additional candidate to run, but they can't find any who are credible.  That is NOT the Dems fault, that is the fault of Republican and Charter organizations.  They need better leadership and real organization. You can't phone it in or be known as a party of extremists.  Maybe in 2025 they will find some candidates. I don't expect much.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent

Local Cincinnati Area Races to Follow on Election Night

Beyond turnout in Hamilton County, there are several local elections to follow this Tuesday on Election Night that I will be intently watching.  Not all of these will be nail biting cliffhangers, but they will have elements and details that can give evidence on how 21st century politics are working here in Hamilton County, Ohio.

1. OH-1 Landsman (D) vs. Chabot (R): This is of course the most interesting race in the area.  This Republican gerrymandered district is in violation of the Ohio Constitution, but in the effort to hide their power grab they made this district very close to a Toss-up.  Republicans claim this is a Dem+2 district, but that is just not true.  This is at best maybe a Dem+.05 based on historical results.  The strong Conservative Western HamCo was replaced with the more moderated Eastern HamCo and ALL of the City.  This gives an advantage to the Dem, but that advantages assumes people vote in reasonable numbers.  If turnout is strong, close to that of 2018, this should be a narrow win for the Dem.  However, since this is such a closely divided district, a small shift in turnout could make it an even narrower win for the Republican.  This race could go late into night without a declared winner, but the writing could be on the wall as the suburbs should report earlier than the city proper.
2. Hamilton County Commissioner Dumas (D) vs Smitherman vs O'Neill (R):  This race is going to be very interesting, but not because there is much doubt as to who will win.  With a Three-Way race, the Democratic candidate should be able to win.  The interesting part will be how the two Republican candidates, Smitherman and O'Neill perform.  Only one will be marked as a Republican and that is what makes this case interesting.  Will Party ID be enough for O'Neill to get 2nd place or will Smitherman's targeted marketing work to get a large number of Republican voters for him to get 2nd place.  Also, the other situation to watch, will it be a close 1-2 race and distant 3rd or will the 2nd and 3rd each get larger chunks.  There will have to be a complete disaster in HamCo for Dems to lose this race, that is not impossible, however there is no local evidence to suggests that Dems turnout has cratered.  The Dem candidate likely won't get over 50%, but it would be somewhat surprising for either Republican to break 40%. Also, I will be watching this race since I am hoping Smitherman loses big time and this becomes the last we see of him in local politics.
3. Hamilton County Auditor: Brigid Kelly (D) vs. Tom Brinkman (R):  Tom Brinkman is someone everyone should find it easy to root against.  He's a hardcore right wing fascist and has been way longer than the Trumpists were even a glint in Steve Bannon's eye.  Brinkman does not appear to have much of a ground campaign going.  Like his failed campaign for Cincinnati City Council last year, he appears to be phoning it in.  I'd surmise he ran just in case there was some 100 year flood of a Republican wave in Hamilton County.  He's not likely to see that this Tuesday and is running against a very organized and solid Dem candidate.  In this race I'm interested in how much it goes with the partisan breakdown like other races or does it stand out.
4. Hamilton County Clerk of Courts: Pavan Parikh (D) vs. Steven Goodin (R):Among the county wide offices on the ballot in 2022, this one could be the most competitive, at least on paper.  Goodin has a broader appeal and name recognition in the City and amongst moderates. Parikh has the incumbency advantage, but as an appointee, having not been elected before.  Goodin ran for Cincinnati City Council last fall and did not place well (14th). Steve Goodin is capable of running a centrist race, but he's gone instead with a confrontational race, picking Social Media fights and going negative suggesting controversies. Parikh is running with the Democratic slate and as a team, that unit did amazingly well in the City in 2021.  If it carries into the county as well, he should do well.

I have strong feeling, "vibes" as the term has been used this cycle among the political junkie crowd, about this year's election.  I can't tell you anything valuable about the statewide races or how the Congressional races will add up.  Locally, however, I feel like there is NOT going to be a big "Republican Wave."  Locally that would mean Republican turnout surges and Democratic Turnout reduces.  I would easily bet a $100 that it won't happen.  Without that Red Wave, Republicans only have a couple of seats in the county that are close enough and divided up enough to win, assuming turnout "vibes."

On election night, the thing to watch is what I call the "Flop."  That's the first output by the Board of Elections that shows the votes from Absentee/Early voting.  By that point, real-time Turnout should be published as well, so we'll be able to judge if Early Absentee/Early voting is going to be an indicator of the races or will it be segmented, like 2020, which means we'll have to see how vote starts to come in from election day to get the first writing on the wall moment to give an indication of how the night will go.  I'll be covering turnout all day on Tuesday, so look for a Blog post and social media posts with updates. Good luck to the candidates and be sure to vote!

The Smitherman Gambit - Don't Bet on it Winning in November

Christopher Smitherman has a plan to win a seat on the Hamilton County Commission.   The former member of Cincinnati City Council has gambled that a perfect storm will occur that if he takes the right steps could lead him into a win. His wager is one that requires many moving parts to align perfectly. Call this the Smitherman Gambit, his path to "victory", at least if all of it happened, without a hitch.  Here's my interpretation of the list of steps needed for the Smitherman Gambit to work.

1. Obfuscate: Smitherman's first step is to pretend to be many things to many people. 
2. Subtlety and not so subtlety align with Conservatives and Republicans: This includes voting in the Republican Party Primary, gaining the support of right wing extremists like COAST and publicly supporting Republicans just short of Trump. This is easy for a Conservative like Smitherman to do and why he is a Republican in all but name only.
3. Attack the Democratic Party and anyone not directly aligned with John Canley: This was highlighted by Smitherman's participation the promotion of the text messaging scandal manufactured by Republican lawyers and the cooperation from a sympatric Republican judge.
4. Give up on being the Mayor of Cincinnati: This one hurt.  The ego of Smitherman so desired the title of Mayor. His overuse of the unearned title of "Vice Mayor" is case in point.
5. Rebuff invitations to declare himself a Republican: Being labeled a Republican will hurt his standing amongst a segment of African-American voters that don't know he's aligned with the extreme Conservative Republicans.
6. Bank on a Republican Wave Election in  2022: The politics 101 conventional wisdom states that the1st term midterm election will be a significant win for the party out of power.
7. Target a Democratic Woman Opponent: Stephanie Dumas fits a type the typical Conservative Republican campaign would target.  The logic presumes Republicans would pick a man over a woman 9/10 times. There is truth to that logic, as Republicans seek to have power over women’s bodies. What also would appeal to Smitherman is trying to gain the support of Conservative black male voters. He may gain that support, but Smitherman may have over estimated how many Conservative black men there are in Hamilton County.
8. Attempt to finesse the Hamilton County Republican Party into not fielding a candidate for County Commissioner: Smitherman needs to face any Democrat one on one.  This is a must have to ride any Republican wave.
9. Beg and plead for Republican Support: Even without a Republican running against him, Smitherman would run like a Republican and would depend on the campaign contributions from big GOP donors.

So, now that we are just about a month away from the election, how well are things going for the Smitherman Gambit? 

The clear answer is not so good.  

He has done pretty well on steps 1 through 5. Alas, those were the easy ones.  They didn't require him getting help from anyone else outside his own supporters.  

Steps 6 and 7 are not working out so well.  The Republican wave is not going to happen in Hamilton County.  The SCOTUS abortion decision has vastly reduced any GOP wave.  That wave would have needed to be strong in Hamilton County for Smitherman to do well in a one on one race against a Democratic candidate.  A black woman candidate is the type of candidate that many Republicans want to run against, but that pushes a niche tactic that just turns off voters from a campaign that even hints at pushing those buttons.

The pipe dream in the Smitherman Gambit was from the beginning focused on step 8.  He couldn't stop anyone from running in the Republican Primary.  That by itself is what makes his chance of winning VERY low.  He has to convince Republican voters to vote for him over a candidate with the word "Republican" next to his name. Matthew O'Neill is the Republican candidate and got a formal Hamilton County Republican Party endorsement.  If O'Neill get's 5% of the vote, that alone would likely be enough to doom Smitherman’s campaign.  Depending on how well Democratic turn out occurs, it may not even matter, as Dumas could win an full 50%+ 1 majority.  It is going to take a massive campaign to convince the average Republican voter to go against their party and for Smitherman.  I could imagine O'Neill getting 20% or more of the vote based on party ID alone, even without the Republican donor money Smitherman is getting.

Smitherman’s chance relied on the full support of the Republican Party and he would have to cross over and get some of the past voters going to the Dems. That along with a less than stellar Democratic turnout, where elements of the perfect storm that has failed to materialize for Smitherman. His miscalculation has been epic. The rest of his campaign will be one for him to demonstrate if he has any sense of grace or if he will go down in a fire pit of dirty politics, clawing at his opponents in vain. His reputation is not as a graceful person, so I fear the display of pettiness and animosity he and his campaign team displays towards the rest of the county will be grotesque. I hope I am wrong about that, but hope is wasted on Conservatives too scared to publicly declare they are a Republican.

2021 Cincinnati City Council Election Non-Prediction Predictions

 I have no definitive knowledge of who will be the top nine vote getters on November 2nd.  I have no polling data.  I not aware of any polls having been conducted on the council race.  In conclusion, no one knows who is going to win and if you clicked on this article in the hopes of knowing that, well you are a fool. (Kidding, on the square)

That being said...I've done some analysis.  I compiled lots of data.  I've got the results of 2017 council and mayoral election.  I have the 2020 election results.  I have the 2020 census data compiled by voting precinct. I have a ton of information about the 35 candidates on the ballot.  I've reviewed all of that I have some thoughts on who likely will get elected to the Cincinnati City Council.

Before I get to that, I want to outline the core elements of the Cincinnati electorate, from perspective. I also will describe some of the key variables that will determine the winners and what are likely scenarios for who gets on council.

Cincinnati Voting Blocks
First off, what are the voting blocks in Cincinnati?  Oh, what do I mean by a voting block, you ask?  Well, I define a voting block as a group or classification of voters that have common characteristics that provide a referential means to identify political philosophy, Party, race, identity, or other views that would indicate how they would vote.  This is absolutely a generalization about people.  Without polling data that includes self assigned characteristics, there is no other way than to generalize.  I am trying to do that based on the data I have, the voting history of the City by precinct, and my experience in covering/observing Cincinnati elections. 

These groups are not monolithic. In a council race, some Republicans can and will vote for a Democrat and some Democrats will vote for a Republican.  For parties with more options, that is less common than parties with a short ticket. All in all this is kind of messy, but there is a means to judge who each group will support.

What that leaves are the following general voting blocks of voters. 

1. Black Democrats - They will support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support black candidates more than white candidates? Yes, some. 
2. White Democrats - They will also support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support white candidates more than black candidates? Yes, some.
3. Moderates - To poorly use a Ghostbusters reference: this group likes to cross the streams. They will support some Democrats, some in Charter, some Republicans, and even Independents. They tend to support those who are bit more supportive of business and the police, but don’t like the extremes.
4. Republicans - I've segmented out the Trumpists from this block as a significant number of Republicans in the City did not vote for Trump. The lines between some in this group and the Trumpists are blurry on most policy.
5. Trumpists - This is a new block that is not large, but I've made distinct from Republicans because of what I see a degree of a split in the Republican Party, but also because of their voting variation.  These are the hard right Republicans.
6. Black Conservatives - For much of the 21st Century I would call this the Winburn/Smitherman vote. They are going to support some Democrats and Charterites too.
7. Progressives - This group has two components: Those to the left in the Democratic Parry and Leftists outside the Democratic Party. This group will vote for some Democrats and progressive Independents.

I assign no totals to these blocks, but on some levels they can be derived.  There are way more Democrats in the City of Cincinnati than Republicans.  There are not as many Progressives than some Progressives think there are.  Most candidates need support in more than one of these blocks to break into the top nine.  Sometimes they need three blocks to win.  It all depends on who votes.

Variables
So many things can change an election.  There can be one thing and there can be many things.  They can be conflicting and cancel each other out.  Some of them can be appear to be insignificant, but can make or break a candidates.  Some of these variables happen on election day and some are part of the campaign. These are not all of the possible variables, but they are what I think we can observe and evaluate.

1. Overall Turnout - Candidates generally can't do much about this.  This relies on three things: 1) how easy it is to vote, 2) how well the Parties or other significant GOTV efforts worked, and 3) the weather.
2. Voting Block Turnout - This is something candidates can have an impact on.  Consider this getting our your base, but in this type of an at large election other attributes can help.  Issues and topics can drive out one block and keep another at home.  If there are blocks tied to certain neighborhoods or parts of the City, those groups could see a serge in turnout if something that year matters.  
3. Party Endorsement - This year may be a test for this idea, but getting a major party endorsement has nearly been a requirement to get elected to Cincinnati City Council  The value of the endorsement has structural advantages to the campaign in terms of resources, but this is as good as any signal for a majority of voters to understand a candidate's political views and their seriousness.
4. Name Recognition - Incumbency is one version, being a prior elected official is another. Being well known helps as well. Having a well known last name does not hurt either.
5. Fund Raising- Money matters. 
6. Campaign Communications - This has several parts, but the core types are mailers, TV/radio ads, web ads, phone banking, and personal canvassing.  These largely rely on fundraising, but the messages used are also very  important. Negative campaigning is not very effective for one candidate to attack another. This hasn’t been seen so far in the council race. Getting outside groups to do it, that is more common, but how effective it is not a proven concept.
7. Positions on policy or political philosophy - This can matter in some elections, but in reality, not as much as people think. Just because a candidate is for or against an policy is not enough, if that they can effectively communicate those ideas, they will get no where.

These variables at this point are mostly played out. You can get some turnout changes at this point, but most of the rest of these have occurred.

Turnout
The only measurement of Turnout we can see is with early and absentee voting.  As of the end of last week, turnout is up significantly in comparison to turnout in 2017 at the last City Election.  With COVID-19's impact on early/absentee voting, this increase may be far less of a indication of higher turnout and instead part of the shift of votes that would have been cast on Election Day in person.  In comparison to the terrible turnout in 2017, I would predict that 2021 will exceed the 29% by a few percentage points at least. Not all of the increase is COVID related.

Scenarios
Who is going to have power on council?  That is the question that really matters.  That is also a question that could change depending on who gets electected.  Party affiliation is not a guarantee of unity.  Here are the likely possible combinations of who gets power.

1. Democrats in Strong Control with 6 or 7 seats, 2-3 seats split between GOP/Charter - This would be considered a conventional wisdom outcome.  Many see this as the likely situation (some may call it inevitable.) A related version of this scenario would have 1 of GOP/Charter group go to an Independent Progressive Candidate. This is an example where the variable voting block turnout would come into play on the election.
2. Democrats in Control with 5 seats - here you could see Dems with control, but the other 4 seats in all sort of combinations.  Turnout would drive the power of the rest, a surge for the GOP/Charter or a mix in of Charter/Independents could fill in numbers.  Dems would control and on many issue would have as much power as a 6 or 7 seat majority since most of the Charter or Independent candidates are Democrats.
3. Charter/GOP in Control - This is the hope of the GOP.  They would need to get at least three to make this happen, and hope pro-business Charterites want to work together.
4. No Dominant Party in Control -  This split could be amongst the three parties.  This could also be a mix of non-party endorsed.  This is also not that likely, but many candidates and their follows love to dream about it.

Candidate Groupings
I don’t know who is going to win, but I believe I have grouped together all of the candidates into a group that represents my opinion on their chances to win the 2021 City Council Election. I don’t know vote counts, so I really can’t rank the order of finish. With the number of candidates and a lower than normal sense of incumbency, the spread of votes could be tighter, making the race closer to get into the top nine. 

Likely to Win-They should win.

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney
Greg Landsman

Strong Chance - The other 7 slots should come from this group, but it is not guaranteed.

Jeff Cramerding
Kevin Flynn
Steve Goodin
Reggie Harris
Mark Jeffreys

Scotty Johnson
Liz Keating
Meeka Owens
Victoria Parks
Jim Tarbell

Possible - Depending turnout and the mood of the voter, someone in this group could win, but likely no more than one or two could slip into the top 9 and bump 1 or 2 of those with a strong chance out. Some of those in this group could also fall even lower.

Michelle Dillingham
Jackie Frondorf
Galen G. Gordon
Phillip O'Neal
Betsy Sundermann
John Williams
Tom Brinkman
Jamie Castle
Bill Frost
Brian Garry
Kurt Grossman
Evan C. Holt

Not Going to Win  - The hurdles are just too high to overcome the groups above.

Jalen Alford
LaKeisha Cook
Rob Harris
K. A. Heard
Nick Jabin
Andrew Kennedy
John Maher
Peterson W. Mingo
TeAirea R. Powell
Logan-Peter Simmering
Stacey Smith

I look forward to following turnout during the day on Election Day and will be on Twitter @cincyblog on election night.

November City Council Candidates Update - Revised

Well, I thought there wouldn't be much action in the council race at this point, but Republican Jeff Pastor was arrested under serious criminal charges involving his office as a member of City Council. Several Local Republicans quickly threw him under the bus.  Too bad those Republicans didn't have the spine to do that to Larry Householder or Trump.  Another group of Republicans, like a certain conservative columnist who is regularly sniffing the butts of conservative Republicans in hopes of landing a full time radio gig, just blames the City in mass for the actions of indivduals.  His regular anti-city rants fit right in with the bigotry rampant within the GOP, who as evidenced by the targeting of cities in their feeble Fascist crusade to try and subvert Democracy in America, are just blowing dog whistles for racists.

So, we'll have a Republican Circus to deal with.

The most entertaining part will be watching Chris Smitherman, as the current designated member of council, to make the appointment to Council should Jeff Pastor resign. Smitherman does odd contortions to hide being a Republican.  It is what I call a complete lie and he and his Trumpist followers get in a frensy whenever I say he is a Republican on Twitter.  They defend lies all the time, so what is one more?

Anyway, the entertaining part is watching how he'll spin appointing a Republican.  It will be even more entertaining if he appoints a white Republican. The assumption is that he would appoint someone with a shot at winning next year.  There are only four announced Republicans.

But wait, there's more:  With the additional arrest of P.G. Sittenfeld, we may also end up seeing an additional election eligible person to the council.  There are four current Democratic members of council who will jointly appoint any possible replacement.  Sittenfeld has stated his innocence and has indicate he will not resign from Council.  This has no other affect on the Council Race, other than Republicans and outsiders using it as a talking point.  The FBI investigation could theoretically arrest other candidates, but as Sittenfeld would be considered the more "newsworthy" for US Attorney, unless Mayor John Cranley is in his sites, we won't see any other council members arrested, (But who knows). Make note that to be fare, Jeff Pastor is accused of more crimes than Sittenfeld, but as the news coverage is obvious, the Republicans wanted this one more and are going to exploit it.  The media will continue to do their bidding on this topic as well.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D-Appointed)
Jeff Pastor (R with criminal charges pending)
Betsy Sundermann (R-Appointed)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (I)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Key Beck (I)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Stacey Smith (I)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Becky Finnigan (D)
Steve Goodin (R)
Jim Neil (I)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, this reference will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

November City Council Candidates Update

Well, I thought there wouldn't be much action in the council race at this point, but Republican Jeff Pastor was arrested under serious criminal charges involving his office as a member of City Council. Several Local Republicans quickly threw him under the bus.  Too bad those Republicans didn't have the spine to do that to Larry Householder or Trump.  Another group of Republicans, like a certain conservative columnist who is regularly sniffing the butts of conservative Republicans in hopes of landing a full time radio gig, just blames the City in mass for the actions of indivduals.  His regular anti-city rants fit right in with the bigotry rampant within the GOP, who as evidenced by the targeting of cities in their feeble Fascist crusade to try and subvert Democracy in America, are just blowing dog whistles for racists.

So, we'll have a Republican Circus to deal with.

The most entertaining part will be watching Chris Smitherman, as the current designated member of council, to make the appointment to Council should Jeff Pastor resign. Smitherman does odd contortions to hide being a Republican.  It is what I call a complete lie and he and his Trumpist followers get in a frensy whenever I say he is a Republican on Twitter.  They defend lies all the time, so what is one more?

Anyway, the entertaining part is watching how he'll spin appointing a Republican.  It will be even more entertaining if he appoints a white Republican. The assumption is that he would appoint someone with a shot at winning next year.  There are only four announced Republicans.

But wait, there's more:  With the additional arrest of P.G. Sittenfeld, we may also end up seeing an additional election eligible person to the council.  There are four current Democratic members of council who will jointly appoint any possible replacement.  Sittenfeld has stated his innocence and has indicate he will not resign from Council.  This has no other affect on the Council Race, other than Republicans and outsiders using it as a talking point.  The FBI investigation could theoretically arrest other candidates, but as Sittenfeld would be considered the more "newsworthy" for US Attorney, unless Mayor John Cranley is in his sites, we won't see any other council members arrested, (But who knows). Make note that to be fare, Jeff Pastor is accused of more crimes than Sittenfeld, but as the news coverage is obvious, the Republicans wanted this one more and are going to exploit it. The media will continue to do their bidding on this topic as well.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D-Appointed)
Jeff Pastor (R with criminal charges pending)
Betsy Sundermann (R-Appointed)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (I)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Key Beck (I)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Stacey Smith (I)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Becky Finnigan (D)
Steve Goodin (R)
Jim Neil (I)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, this reference will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Candidates Update

Early in 2020 there are not big changes to the number of candidates officially running, but Republicans are falling all over themselves to get an appointment to City Council. Most would be consider it a big advantage running for council as an incumbent.  Many of theses Republicans seem to forget that they face long odds at getting elected to office as a Republican in the City of Cincinnati, even as an incumbent.  I have included in my list below those who put in an application with the Republican Party to fill Amy Murray's seat.  Murray announced recently she was soon leaving City Council to take a Trump political appointment in the Defense Department.  Murray is drinking the Kool-Aide to further her political career in a party that has gone off the deep end into neo-fascism.  Good luck with that, Amy.

I would estimate that at least 75% of the Republicans looking to fill Murray's seat have no intention of running for Council in 2021 WITHOUT being an incumbent.  The Republicans only candidate that has won with room to spare recently has been Chris Smitherman and he got that by pretending to Not be a Republican.  Murray and Pastor were the 8th and 9th place winners, by the skin of their teeth in 2017.  This will be the only time I list out those Republicans, unless they are serious about running for council. The pick for Murray's seat should be done within about a month, so, at that point, those other candidates running might declare.

The rest of candidates of all parties considering a run still have more time to organize.  Here's this latest update:

Incumbents Eligible to Run
Tamaya Dennard (D,C) *
Greg Landsman (D) *
Jeff Pastor (R) *

Announced Candidates
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Brian Garry (D)
Jalen Alford (D?)

Prior Candidates Likely to Run
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Henry Frondorf (D,C)
Seth Maney (R)
Kelli Prather (D)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Ozie Davis III (D)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Manuel Foggie (I?)
Tamie Sullivan (R,I ?)
Leslie Jones (D)
Tonya Dumas (D)
Erica Black-Johnson (I)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Cam Hardy (D,C,I ?)
Matt Woods (C)
Dadrien Washington (D)
Derrick D. Blassingame (R)

Other Republicans Who Wanted to be Appointed to Murray's Seat These individuals want to be on council, based on seeking the open seat, but they have not indicated yet that they are running for office without being an appointed incumbent.
Tommy Price (R)
Jacob Samad (C,R)
Devoe Sherman (R)
Betsy Sundermann (R)
Liz Keating (R)
Gary Lee (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Linda Matthews (R)
Steve Megerle (R)
Heather Couch (R)
Jacqueline Ennis (R)
Gary Favors (R)
Garrett Gerard (R)
William Glines (R)
Steve Goodin (R)
Scott Harper (R)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

Get Off Your Ass If You Are Running For Office In The City Of Cincinnati

We are now less than two years out from Cincinnati City Council and Mayoral elections on November 2, 2021.  If you are running for an office, you better get off your ass now and start organizing your campaign or you will not win.

Sure, if you have tons of money or are well known, you will think you can win, but you still need to begin planning now.  You need to line up support.  You need to formulate a strategy to win.  You need to start making personal connections that give you the chance to make it.

The next election will have a super majority of non-incumbents.  All indications are that the GOP has something up its sleeve.  Whether that is putting a ton of money in the Race behind enough candidates to even win a majority of council OR if they are just going to wage a hidden support campaign for Chris Smitherman for Mayor, we don't know.  I'd expect something, at least something superficial that gets local media attention.

Smitherman is the choice of Republicans, but Smitherman is scared to accept their open endorsement and instead is attempting to manufacture a tight-rope campaign that is trying to appeal to the Right Wing money he needs, but keeping that secret from the African-American voters who don't like Republicans. I don't know if a political duality like this can work, but if Smitherman acts like other Republicans and limits his message to voters who only consume a small number of information sources, he can attempt to keep his Right Wing support hidden from an important voting block.

The duality of telling one group he accepts the racist policies of the Republican Party while telling he rejects those same policies is the type of tight rope to drive a person to a level or derangement that can only be harmful.  Smitherman has a reputation for and has made historical examples of what I would characterize as unhinged behavior.  Trying to like this duality will only exacerbate the problem.

So the fun is ahead of us!  I am working on creating my list of candidates running for council and their endorsements.  I'll include mayor if that list grows significantly.  Send me an email at cincyblog@aol.com or send word to @cincyblog if you have information on a new candidate getting into the race.

I expect a nasty mayor's race and I expect the Republicans to be complete shits as they run a VERY dirty campaign. Hope they can take as good as the give.

Do Republicans in Cincinnati Know Latin? "Qui Tacet Consentire Videtur"

"Qui Tacet Consentire Videtur" is a Latin axiom that roughly translates to "He who is silent is understood to consent."  I am sure this phrase or a variation has come up in an Op/Ed you have read in the last week.  I say that assuming you are a person who reads Op/Eds from reasonable news outlets.  For the limited audience of my blog, I am going to make a reasonable assumption that you do.

Another bit of information that most people know is that Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a rally on August 1st here in Cincinnati. This will be a couple of weeks after Trump made his racist Tweets about four members of the House of Representatives. and then a few days later at another Trump rally in NC made horrific xenophobic chants, that are clear examples of fascism.

What is going to happen at the next Trump rally here in Cincinnati?  Will hoards of local racists, fascists, sexists, bigots, white nationalists, and xenophobic assholes show up?  You better believe they will.  There are tons of them in the tristate area and they are attracted to Trump and love to vent their hatred and blame on non-white people for all of their troubles.  Yes, that is currently the primary motivational strategy of Republicans for the 2020 election.

With this in mind, I am calling out all local Republicans officials to take a stand.  Do you oppose racism/xenophobia or do you condone it?  You have to take a stand one way or the other.  There is no wiggle room here.  I'm not looking for Republicans to change their party affiliation or anything, I am looking for basic humanity.  Simple acknowledgement that what Trump tweeted and a significant portion of his followers at the rally chanted were racist and xenophobic and that is wrong.  Or you could agree with both and come out of the closet, so to speak.That is it, just denounce the racism and xenophobia or embrace it.  There are not three sides to this.  So, those local Republicans out there, make your stances known.  Those people include the following list:

1. Senator Rob Portman
2. Senator Mitch McConnell
3. Senator Rand Paul
4. Representative Steve Chabot
5. Representative Brad Wenstrup
6. Representative Thomas Massie
7. Prosecuting Attorney Joe Deters
8. Treasurer Robert Goering, Jr.
9. Engineer Ted Hubbard>
10. Cincinnati City Council Jeff Pastor
11. Cincinnati City Council Amy Murray
12. Anderson Township Trustee Andrew Pappas
13. Blue Ash City Council Jeff Cappell
14. HCRP Chairman Alex Triantafilou
15. Sheriff Jim Neil
16. Cincinnati City Council Christopher Smitherman

How should they take a stand against the racism and xenophobia?  Well, two things everyone on this list should do are 1) not appear at the Trump rally on August 1st and 2) denounce Trump's tweets as racist and the chants at his NC rally (and him letting it grow) as xenophobic.  For the purpose of what I am asking, that is it.

IF you DO NOT do either of these simple and honorable requests in a reasonable way WITHOUT a "whataboutism" or WITHOUT attempting to shift the blame to something else, THEN I am going to forever believe that you agree with Trump and his hoard of followers.  He or She who is silent is understood to consent.  If you don't have the courage to go on Twitter or Facebook and denounce this racism and xenophobia, then you are condoning it, even if only as a means to get elected.  There is no difference between believing in racism/xenophobia and simply exploiting voters' agreement with elements and policies of racism/xenophobia as a means to gain support for an election.  The ends don't justify the means.  If you come out in support of it, well, you just might get more criticism, and face the wrath of your god at a later point.  I'll stay out of that fable and let your conscious deal with that.

My belief is not much of a punishment, I know, but it is a question of honor.  There are honorable people on this list who know better, but are going along with this abomination out of a misplaced sense of fear and a lack courage.  Look to the former Governor of Ohio, John Kasich.  I don't agree with him politically on much, but I can consider him an honorable person for taking a public stance against Trump on his racism.

There are people on this list who don't claim to be Republicans, but they certainly act, vote in Republican primaries, appear at Trump rallies, or take GOP contributions like a member of the Party, so they get the same treatment.  Some on this may have already taken a stance, like Mitch McConnell, which fails on all levels, so I don't expect him to change.  Others may have already taken a firm stance against Trump and if they have, good, I hope they repeat it louder so I can read it.  They are included because of their chosen Party affiliation, and I won't give them a 100% pass for doing the right thing.  I've left off a bunch of other lower officials that I hope also will make a choice. 

My list also didn't include the many local conservative media blowhards or social media trolls.  I expect most of them either to embrace the hate or be silent like the cowards I believe they are.  Also, why give them any more attention, which they crave?

Among the few who read this, I am sure there will be criticism of me.  Fine, you can try, but I am not going to budge or falter in your attacks.  Yes, I am judging people based on their actions or inactions.  That is how we should be judged.  The only repercussion is my opinion of other people based on their actions or inactions. Nothing Earth shattering, but if one or two people are nudged to action, that's better than not saying a damn thing. I may call people racist or xenophobic in the future and I will mean it.  I will point to this and their actions or inactions and will be more than satisfied with my conclusion.  IF you don't like me exercising my 1st Amendment right to redress my grievance with my government representatives, then you have problem with the U.S. Constitution.  I am not not going back anywhere.  I am an American, love me or leave me alone.

What Do You Make of the CincyTrollFarm? Porn, Soccer, and Politics, Oh My!

If you use Twitter and post something that criticizes Cincinnati City Council Member Chris Smitherman, a Republican, then a "pack" of Twitter accounts comes out from under their respective rocks and starts liking and retweeting Twitter posts from a small cabal of Smitherman supporter's Twitter accounts or other aligned Conservative Twitter accounts.  Some of this pack of accounts have profiles that appear to be some type of porn advertisement that also likes local soccer. 

It is disappointing that some FC Cincinnati fan is also a right wing conservative troll that has some type of online porn business. I know there are conservatives into Soccer, but here in the US the fandom is younger and has a much more progressive fanbase.  American based sports have fans that are traditionally more conservative on the whole, so having Soccer fans without the Bud Light walking commercials is refreshing. It is more disappointing that he/she either forgets what Twitter account they are on or they are knowingly mixing their politics, porn business, and soccer fandom.  An odd mix.

That being said, recent articles about the NYCFC "Proud Boy" fans makes me concerned that there are facist idiots hanging out in the Bailey.  I am NOT talking about Republicans or Conservatives, I am talking about Fascists and misogynistic White Nationalists.  They don't belong in any supporter group.  I know of one FC Cincinnati supporter group who has been the most confrontational and quite frankly acted like juvenile assholes on many occasions over the last three years.  I hope they DO NOT let fascists into their midst.  I hope the same for all other supporters groups, but this one group has the reputation for being the closest  on the spectrum of being like European hooligans.  Soccer hooligans in Europe have in many instances been affiliated with far right wing political groups that push fascist stances. So, with no evidence, I am looking with both eyes at the group who are most likely to hold those views.  Call it unfair or not, but those in the FCC fandom community know the group in question, who sit to the far front left side of the Bailey (when facing the pitch), and keeping watch on our fellow supporters groups is part of what must be done to make Soccer in Cincinnati grow and prosper.

Cranley and Smitherman Both Want a Blue Pony, with Jason Williams as Stable Boy

With the John Cranley's self made drama at City Hall this month, one might be fooled into thinking that the City Manager is a threat.  Harry Black is a not a threat, he is a roadblock.  He is blocking the lustfully power hungry Mayor and 'Vice-Mayor', John Cranley and Chris Smitherman respectively, from illegally seizing control of Cincinnati City government.  Other than the City Manager and City Council, the real hurdle getting in their way, and making their efforts illegal, is the the law, specifically the City Charter and how it defines the role and power of Mayor.

Both Cranley and Smitherman want power.  They want to be a strong mayor.  I really hope this isn't some type of fetish role-playing for either man, trying to be a modern day Boss Cox.  I get they might like gilded age costumes, but that's just taking it too far.  Steampunk Smitherman does sound like a good nickname, however.

The problem for them is that the Mayor has limited power.  The mayor is not the boss of the city.  The mayor has  some power, but not total control of all City employees.  Cranley wishes he had that, but knows unless he can somehow remove term limits (unlikely as the GOP likes them), he's only working for his legacy.  Cranley's legacy rests solely on Republican Chris Smitherman.  Yes, I called him a Republican.  I am probably going to be called a racist for daring to call a duck a duck, but Smitherman's Twitter StormTroopers can bloviate all they want.  I just hope they can figure out I am a real person.  They've claimed I'm an pen name for elected officials or maybe they think I'm a Russian Bot, but here's hoping the kids can study up.  Maybe even read the over 15 years worth of blog posts I've written, on my archive.  I may not be a good writer, but I sure as Hell have been doing this long enough to know who the players are in Cincinnati politics.  I've been around long enough to know that when you vote in the Republican primary, endorse Republican candidates, adopt Republican polices, campaign with Republicans, attack Republican enemies, and take Republican money, then I am going to call you a Republican.  If Smitherman thinks he can't get elected mayor as a Republican, he should understand that lying about you policies and allegiances isn't going to work either.  You can't compartmentalize like Yasir Arafat in Cincinnati.  Don't mix messages with different audiences.

The funny twist in recent Enquirer coverage of the Mayor's Chaos comes from the resident hack political columnist Jason Williams. He is almost criticizing John Cranley.  I say almost, as Williams still tried his best to blame Cranley's drama on what he's calling the 'urban progressives' and 'Progressive 5.'  Not sure what he means by urban, as this is a city, but we do have a suburban mayor, so I'll presume Williams isn't a fan of people who like cities. He's certainly championing those against the City of Cincinnati. That would include Republican member of council Chris Smitherman.  Williams, I guess, finally figured out he's not going to get a job in Cranley's administration, so now he's pushing the anti-city Manager form of government that Smitherman painfully desires.  His lust for power borders on the psychotic and makes Cranley's penchant for sticking it to his political foes look like pin pricks in comparison.  A character like Smitherman without a professional city manager to run the day operation would look like a small version of a Trump White House.  Same kind of ego, but with more outward signs of psychosis.

Strong mayors are not a good idea in Cincinnati and not with those wanting it now.  Former Ohio State Senator Eric Kearney stated well what I believe is the underlying problem with the position Cranley and Smitherman (with Williams) are putting forth:

If something goes “wrong” in the federal government we do not blame the U.S. Constitution and its Amendments (and seek to change them). As well, we should not blame (and seek to change) the City Charter.

— Eric H Kearney (@EricKearney) March 22, 2018

The problem is with the way they are trying to govern.  They want the government and the populace to bend to their will.  That's not leadership, that is bullying.  Leaders don't create controversy as a means to push forward as a political pretext to change the form of government. If there is a problem with the form of government, make the claim as to why, present facts, and be honest.  If you just want to gain more power, then I say fuck off, we don't need mini-Trumps in Cincinnati.

In Case You Live in a Cave: 2017 Sucked in Politics

Anyone paying attention knows that 2017 sucked, bigly.  Here are the worst things politically that happened nationally and locally:

Nationally:

1. Trump took office as President.
2. Trump obstructed office.
3. The Republicans obfuscated the Congressional investigations of Trump.
4. Trump stayed in office.
5. Tie: Trump spoke/Trump lied
6. Trump continued to push hate, racism, and sexism.
7. Trump Tweeted.
8. Trump acted like a petulant child.
9. FOX News solidified is standing as propaganda for Trump.
10. An increased number of Americans (Right-Wing and Left-Wing) believe they are informed on politics.

Locally:

1. John Cranley was elected to a second term as Mayor.
2. Republican Chris Smitherman was elected to another term on City Council.
3. Democrat John Cranley appointed Republican Chris Smitherman as Vice-Mayor
4. Cincinnati Republicans overwhelming supported Cranley.
5. The Ohio Democratic Party Supported John Cranley for Mayor, despite his reliance on the Republicans to get elected.
6. Voter turnout sucked once again.
7. People are still incredibly ignorant on how government and elections work.
8. Republican Amy Murray joined the Governor's race ticket as a Lt. Governor candidate for a Trump supporting candidate for Governor.

Election Night Parties!

Campaigns like to celebrate or commiserate their efforts on election night.  Here's a list where candidates and their campaign staff and supports plan on meeting up:

Chris Smitherman - Jim and Jacks on the River (3456 River Road)
Henry Frondorf - West Side Brewing
Yvette Simpson  - Queen City Radio
Tamaya Dennard - The Vestry
Michelle Dillingham - Pendleton Arts Center
Mike Moroski - Arnold's
Hamilton County Republican Party - The Capital Grille
David Mann - The Woodburn Brewery
Brian Garry - Tillie’s Lounge
P.G. Sittenfeld- Eighth & English (O’Bryonville)
Chris Seelbach - Milton's
Derek Bauman - Milton's
Charter Committee - Arnold's
John Cranley - Americano

If there are more, I'll update as I find out about them.

Council Race Heats Up

Only just over a week to go before the election and my mailbox is starting to fill up. I am disappointed seeing the State Democratic party dumping money into the Mayor's race with multiple mailers for Cranley. Even under new leadership they continue to make mistakes. Instead of trying to build a party to win in the upcoming elections, they handpicked candidates they think could have won prior elections they hope repeat in the future.

We are closer to start making some more predictions about the race. Haha! What I really mean is that I am getting closer to making some wild guesses based on conventional wisdom.  Council races are a mix of predictable and surprising.  It should be easy to predict 4 to 6 candidates.  The 4 Democratic incumbents are heavy CW favorites and the 2 Republicans (including Smitherman) have clear advantages.  What holds the 2 Republicans back is the most unpredictable element, voter turnout.  One of the most common CW tropes about Cincinnati elections is that the GOP votes more consistently in off year elections than the Dems.  Therefore the higher the turnout, the better Democratic candidates do.

I have updated my list below creating some new groups and shifting a few candidates around.  Those whom I am giving advantage is based on the campaign and a repeat turnout from 2013.  If turnout rises, look for candidates like Smitherman and Murray to fall and potentially be out of the top 9.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)

Likely
David Mann* (D,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed)

Some advantage:
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)
Amy Murray* (R,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I, FOP, PWR and for some reason G endorsed)
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C, PWR endorsed)
Greg Landsman (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)

In the Mix:
Ozie Davis III (D, FOP, PWRendorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed)
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R, FOP endorsed)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Outside Chance
Henry Frondorf (C, PWR endorsed) (D)
Seth Maney (R, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Tamie Sullivan (G, FOP endorsed) (R)

Chances Dropping
Tonya Dumas (D)
Manuel Foggie

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Brian Garry (G endorsed) (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Dadrien Washington (Write-In)


Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
FOP= Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police (Union) Endorsement
PWR = Partnership of Westside Residence PAC Endorsement

Sept 4th Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

Today is Labor Day, the traditional start of the full campaign season.  Today I am also posting what should be the finalized candidate list.  Four candidates that turned in signatures did not have them verified and failed to make the ballot.  One new write in candidate was added on.  Write in candidates have a much lower threshold to meet, but they don't have their name on the ballot.  If a voter writes them in, they will be counted.  If a voter writes in anyone else not on the ballot, that vote will not count.

Now we get into who might win.  Based on my analysis this year, there are currently four candidates likely to win. That leaves fives seats really up for grabs.  This analysis is based on a key element: enthusiasm is higher with the  Democratic base.  Getting out your base is a requirement for Council wins.  With a wide field of Dems (endorsed and not) that puts a second requirement of being a known credible candidate.  Incumbents generally get that automatically.  Endorsements, money, media attention, and name recognition make up the other common ways of being credible.  I have never seen a non-credible candidate win.

I've added referenced to a couple of conservative leaning endorsement groups, the FOP and PWR PAC, that announced their endorsements recently.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)

Likely
David Mann* (D,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed)
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D)
Ozie Davis III (D, FOP, PWRendorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C, PWR endorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed)
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Greg Landsman (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Amy Murray* (R,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R, FOP endorsed)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I, FOP, PWR and for some reason G endorsed)


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Manuel Foggie
Henry Frondorf (C, PWR endorsed) (D)
Seth Maney (R, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Tamie Sullivan (G, FOP endorsed) (R)

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Brian Garry (G endorsed) (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Dadrien Washington (Write-In)


Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
FOP= Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police (Union) Endorsement
PWR = Partnership of Westside Residence PAC Endorsement

Post Deadline Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

27 candidates are on the list, with 8 of those pending on verification of signatures.  A big list, but not as big as it was expected.  8 other candidates had indications they were running.  1 of those 8 was endorsed by the Green Party and another 1 of the 8 had a full website up and running, but couldn't get enough signatures.

1 new candidate, Peterson Mingo, a fairly well known local Minister, surprisingly submitted signatures and is pending to get on the ballot.  His name recognition is his only asset at this point, but even that is clouded by legal trouble he was in regarding city building code violations.  He might get new voters out to polls, which could drive more votes to other candidates, especially in the mayor's race.  No word on who he is supporting in that contest, but he did get help from John Cranley for the legal trouble his was in.

Now the fun begins.  Money is a key element to know who stands the biggest chance, but face to face connections matter.  Endorsements of various groups matter.  The FOP endorsements are out and they skipped two retired police officers and picked all of the Republicans.  Shocked I am not.

I will continue providing updates to this list as the campaign rolls on, but only to shift candidates to new categories as things change.  Predicting candidates in anything other than general categories is pointless, so their may not be much fluctuation.  News coverage, new endorsements, new money are the drives for much of the fluctuation.  Those who are seen to be pressing the flesh, show they are serious.  Those who look like they are professional serious candidates are more likely than those who appear to be fly-by-night candidates to win, so they move closer to be considered in the mix. The big ride begins now.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed) ‡

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed) ‡
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed) ‡
Wendell Young* (D endorsed) ‡

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed) ‡
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed) ‡
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed) ‡
Leslie Jones (D endorsed) ‡
Greg Landsman (D endorsed) ‡
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed) ‡
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed) ‡
Laure Quinlivan (D) ‡
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed) ‡


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D) ‡
Manuel Foggie ‡
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Seth Maney (R endorsed) ‡
Beverly Odoms (D) ‡
Tamie Sullivan (R) ‡
Peterson Mingo ‡

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I) ‡
Cristina Burcica (I) ‡
Herschel Chalk II ‡
Brian Garry (D) ‡
Kelli Prather (D) ‡
Theo Barnes ‡

Not on the Ballot
Dawud Mustafa
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Michael Rachford
Edith Thrower
Orlando Welborn (D)
Matt Teaford (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

August Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

This coming week is it for candidates trying to get on the ballot for the 2017 Cincinnati Council race. August 24th is the deadline and there are many who announced they are running, but have not turned in their signatures yet, including several endorsed candidates.  I don't know what would be taking so long for the endorsed candidates, they should have plenty of party members to sign, unless it's the Green Party.

Making the ballot will not be finalized on the 24th, it will require review of the signatures before the candidate is officially on the ballot.  I think the maximum number on the ballot will be 28, which leaves out the "Are They Actually Running?" group below.  With only 16 listed on the BOE unofficial listing, that is quite a bit of activity for the remaining 12.  I'll post an update to the listing once the ballot is finalized, hopefully in 7 to 10 days.  After that I'll start reviewing the financials of candidates and see who else any sense of a campaign.


Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed) ‡

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed) ‡
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed) ‡
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed) ‡
Leslie Jones (D endorsed) ‡
Greg Landsman (D endorsed) ‡
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed) ‡
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed) ‡
Laure Quinlivan (D) ‡
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed) ‡


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Manuel Foggie ‡
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Seth Maney (R endorsed)
Beverly Odoms (D)
Tamie Sullivan (R) ‡
Matt Teaford (I)

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Cristina Burcica (I) ‡
Herschel Chalk II
Dawud Mustafa
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Brian Garry (D) ‡
Kelli Prather (D)

Are the Actually Running?
Theo Barnes
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Michael Rachford
Edith Thrower
Orlando Welborn (D)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.


As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (cincyblog@aol.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

July Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

We are into the home stretch for those declaring their candidacy and getting on the ballot. There are only 12 candidates thus far who have submitted signatures to qualify for the ballot. The filing deadline is August 24th, so there is still time for those out there trying to get on the ballot, but not much time life. Unless there is a very well known or wealthy person who wants to gets on the ballot, then at this point it would take a massive effort for a new candidate to break into the top half of finishers. With four year terms, serious candidates have been working at this for months now and have raised some money and built a ground game.  This is not the type of race that can be won with a Facebook page and a few handmade signs.  Organization is the key to this race and reaching and motivating voters is the goal.  As August goes on, I'll update the listing if there is significant activity before the 24th. Once the ballot is set, I plan on maintain a listing of candidates based on likelihood of winning.


Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed) ‡

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed) ‡
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed) ‡
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Laure Quinlivan (D) ‡
Greg Landsman (D endorsed) ‡
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed) ‡
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed) ‡
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed) ‡
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed)

Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Manuel Foggie ‡
Beverly Odoms (D)
Matt Teaford (I)
Tamie Sullivan (R)
Seth Maney (R endorsed)

Also Ran
Dawud Mustafa
Brian Garry (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Cristina Burcica (I) ‡
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Herschel Chalk II

Are the Actually Running?
Theo Barnes
Orlando Welborn (D)
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Edith Thrower
Michael Rachford

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.


As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (cincyblog@aol.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

​Republicans Have Conceded the 2017 Cincinnati Council Race

Throwing in the towel when you announce your endorsed candidates for Cincinnati Council seems like a shooting-yourself-in-the-foot move, but that is ​exactly what the Hamilton County Republican Party did when they officially announced their slate of THREE candidates for Cincinnati City Council this past week.

Yes, you read that correctly, THREE.

To make sure you are thinking correctly, yes there are Nine seats on council, and Five seats are needed for a basic majority to pass any ordinances. Six seats are needed for a veto proof majority from the Mayor.  Even if closeted Republican Chris Smitherman wins, that still leaves them short from the start. For those grasping at straws, a coalition Council with Charter Committee endorsed candidates is a pipe dream, with all but one of their endorsements being solid Democrats/Progressives.

So, the GOP has conceded the 2017 Cincinnati Council Race.

Three candidates is the lowest number of endorsed candidates for the Republicans in decades, if not in the history of the party.

If you need any additional evidence of the GOP giving up on the city, I don't know what you could get.

The person who should be most worried about this slate of candidates is John Cranley. The only way Cranley can win the Mayor's race is by getting nearly all of the Republican votes in the city. He not only has to win their vote, he needs to get them to come out and vote. They didn't do that as well in the primary this year as they did four years ago. If the GOP in Mt. Washington, Hyde Park, Mt. Lookout and Westside don't vote in strong numbers and vote for Cranley, he has no chance to win.

So, without any chance of gaining the majority seats of the law making body of the city, with the real power to make policy, what will motivate a City Republican to vote this November?

June Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

The update this month brings one new candidate and some new endorsements from the Green Party of Southwest Ohio.  The Green Party locally is pretty flaky (or down right nuts) and their support for Smitherman shows they don't know what they are doing. The GOP finally put out their endorsements and have three and no Smitherman! My "Smither-man, Republi-can" T-Shirts are still on back order.


Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed)

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed)
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed)
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Greg Landsman (D endorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed)
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed)
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D)
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed)
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed)

Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D)
Manuel Foggie
Beverly Odoms (D)
Matt Teaford (I)
Tamie Sullivan (R)
Seth Maney (R endorsed)

Also Ran
Theo Barnes
Orlando Welborn (D)
Dawud Mustafa
Brian Garry (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Cristina Burcica (D)
Michael Rachford
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Edith Thrower

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.


If anyone has any other names please send them my way (cincyblog@aol.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. Also, since I have added a party affiliation, if there are changes, let me know.

Key
* = Incumbent
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent