Hamilton County, Ohio Presidential Election Results by Neighborhood

 The results for Hamilton County shifted slightly towards Republicans in the Presidential race.  The table below lists out the Cincinnati neighborhoods and County municipality or township.

The data used for the Cincinnati Neighborhoods are approximations based on assignment of each precinct to one neighborhood. Therefore the underlying totals do is not exactly match the defined boundaries by census data. The County municipalities and Townships match up as precincts are tied to municipal borders.

The results by area are not surprising. There are some margins that are surprising. Obvious the conservative far west portion outside the City has vote totals like rural farm country. The east and north areas outside the City show a far more moderate or even Dem majority. 

In the City the same few Republican dominated areas exist. There a few more areas smaller Dem margin than one would expect Avondale, Camp Washington, Corryville, CUF, East Westwood, Lower Price Hill, Madisonville, Mt. Auburn, Riverside, South Fairmount, Villages at Roll Hill, and Westwood and saw Republican vote gains of over 2.5%.  Lower Price Hill increased over 6%.

Some neighborhoods saw percentage gains Dems, oddly California was the highest by far at over 6%. The Republican neighborhood is small, so a small shift of a couple dozen people shows out more. Most had smaller variances. Dems in HamCo worried about local Democrats and that helped with local candidates. State and National Dems do not have a clue about Ohio and don't seem like they are trying at all.

2024 Hamilton County Election Turnout Analysis

Turnout in Hamilton County was down 3.5% compared to 2020. Here's a breakdown by City vs Non-City:

If you want a simple representation of the Macro analysis of the election, all you have to do is compare this to a few other counties in Ohio:

Turnout fell in suburban counties, but less than it dropped in the urban county.  The hypothesis that follows is that Republican votes retained more from 2020, while Democratic votes dropped. The two data points that are available for additional review are age and race.  Race is very limited, as it relies on census data in a precinct and can't be tied directly to voter's data.  When looking at areas with a majority black population, there is a larger drop in turnout.  The difference is over 2%, which while significant, is not conclusive with the sourcing of the data.  Age, on the other hand, can be tied directly to voters.

Here is a breakdown by generation within Hamilton County.

This data is based off of the Registered voter database.  That data is live and not exactly the same as certified results, but the total differential is at most a few hundred. My definition of each generation is consistent by year.  The inflated size of the Boomer generation is tied to the commonly accepted period of the "Baby Boom" and rounded up to 20 years.  Using 15 years for all other subsequent generations, as well as the Silent generation, provides for reasonable consideration of a generation.

Changes in registration numbers for Zoomers and Millennials contributes to some of their variation.  Millennials had a significantly higher drop in registrations than GenX. This would follow logically if you consider that Millennials are more likely to be either newer parents moving to the Exurbs or more likely moving farther away for work.  Additionally, since they have not been consistent voters, they could also be more likely to have been purged for inactivity or other partisan targeting.

Zoomers had a natural increase in registration, as more people reach age 18, but the turnout lagged far more than older generations. Young voters in Hamilton County continue their propensity to have lower turnout.

There is an Election Next Month, Have You Noticed?

Yesterday I was updating some data files that I normally use for my election analysis and I was thinking about why I am doing it.

I enjoy analysis, so I want to know how Hamilton County (HamCo) votes breakdown.  Which areas in the City will beat turnout from 2020?  Have voting precincts changed?  Lots of interesting items to play with.  So much of this seems like it is just for my own amusement.

Early voting data is available as well. It is annoying, however. As a true data geek, I like my control totals to match. The detailed absentee voter data one can download from the BOE does not exactly match the totals the BOE publishes. The differences are not huge, but noticeable. They would not change a basis point, only a small fraction. It would just make sense to have these match. Maybe after while things will catch up, as delays would account for much of the variances, but if there are other differences, I wish they would summarize the causes. I like to know why.

I Am Giving Up On The News Media

 I made a choice about this blog.  I changed the tag line.  I took out the "media analysis," but kept the "analysis."  I am giving up on the news media.

My efforts at blogging has entailed many things over my 20+ years of activity, but being a critic of the media has been a fairly constant thread through it all.  I am publicly stating I am taking that off the masthead, so to speak.  The news media is hopeless and there is nothing to be done about it.

I am not saying I won't consume the news, I will continue to do that, but I no longer respect what is left of the profession anymore.  The only thing remaining is trying to entertain an audience, and this is from the "reputable" outlets.  The disreputable outlets are unabashed agents of propaganda and manipulation.  I'm not going to name names, but they are obvious.

I am giving up on all forms of the news media: broadcast tv, cable tv, newspapers, websites, and radio.  This is includes national and local outlets. The death of local news has been the most painful to watch the last decade.  The slow death of local newspapers and the nationalization of local TV news programming has turned local news into a mockery. The only way people will know somethings local is by individuals posting about it on their varied social media accounts.  That is a dangerous and terrible situation as social media is a cesspool without any reliability or trustworthiness.

I will point out that there is still good journalism going on.  There are individuals, even those employed by vapid outlets, who do good work. I am not trying to bash every journalist.  I am hitting at the profession. That is what I am giving up on and if I have disappointment in some individual journalists it is when they defend their outlets or colleagues actions when they chase after drama and entertaining stories. Seeing some journalists get defensive at criticism has exasperated me. They don't want to come to the reality what they are doing is not journalism, it is entertainment.  Some of them don't see a difference and that is just sad.

At this point I am going to guess you might be looking for someone to blame.  Some of you might want to throw blame on corporate media.  Sorry Charlie, they only get a relatively small portion of the blame.  The overwhelming majority of the blame goes on the public. Most of the public does not care.  They don't consume news.  They may say they follow the news, but they don't. At best they read some headlines, but they don't regularly consume anything.  Sure, they know about the sports and entertainment news.  They know what is trending on social media.  They are immersed into the marketing feeds (TikTok, YouTube, Instagram) and are up to date on what they are spoon fed while sitting on the couch or on the crapper.

All of this is done willingly, by the way.  People are inherently lazy and foolish.  They want what is easy and quick.  They make time to play endless video games, or watching sports or viewing reality TV (modern day soap operas), but they don't want the mental veggies that is the news. They are willingly embracing a path that would lead society to Idiocracy and not Star Trek.

So, the failure of the corporate world is not in marketing to these people, but instead for requiring the news media to pay for itself. In the broadcast TV world of the long past, news programming was a loss for the networks.  They could make more money from a sitcom.  They provided the news as a service to society.  Partly for legal reasons, but also for civic reasons.  Owners had a tiny shred of duty that kept news coverage going.  That eroded over the years, but prior to the internet, it sort of worked.  The Internet killed the newspaper. With the death of the newspaper, the Wire Services have been decimated.  The blood of the news is reporting: who, what, where, and when. With the lack of reporting, an artificial blood of drama and entertainment has been created and killed the credibility of the news. With apathy of the public, the news media has been gutted. So, no one else cares, so I am giving up on media analysis.  

I am admitting defeat.  I am still not sure what I am going to write about.  Politics is pointless at this point as well, much because of the same terrible media and apathetic public. I am not sure if I will even keep this blog going. This was always just a fun little project and 20 years ago it had a small but consistent audience.  Well, that is long gone. There is not much point as people don't care.  I suppose this is blog post is just a tree falling in the woods. No one will notice.  Well, if I am going to go down, I wanted to at least say something on the way to ground.

What to Write About for 2024?

It is 2024. Happy New Year!  Ok, so the honeymoon should be over in a Presidential Election year at about 12:04 AM on the 1st. It is day two of the year and I am looking ahead. Local elections are happening this year, but for Cincinnati there is not going to be much for me to write and think about. The Hamilton County Prosecuting Attorney and Sheriff races will be interesting to watch and should be competitive, but that's about it. 

Hamilton County has gone "Blue" in a partisan sense.  Compared to other urban counties, it is NOT as close and there are many more moderate voters that in certain races will easily split tickets.  For the Prosecutor's race the Republicans have had the edge for a long time.  This year is setting up to be one that the Democratic candidate has a very good chance of winning, with Joe Deters not on the ballot.

The most interesting thing I am seeing so far: All of the statehouse races in Hamilton County will be  contested by both parties.

 

National politics is something that is very difficult to write about.  State wide politics is also something that is difficult to write about for a large state like Ohio. I have no plans to write much about the Ohio Senate race as there is little I can add.

The only thing I may play with is using the State wide Voter Registration datasets.  I have linked in year end datasets and I plan on working on some statewide data.  I think getting turnout rates based on generation would be most interesting information I could compile.  In Hamilton County I have been doing this for years now, but seeing how different it would be statewide or for certain types of counties.  I don't have a profile created for all counties, but I could come up with some general variations.

I will be thinking about other topics to write about.  This blog used to be more active with more snark and more traditional political banter.  This blog is now almost 22 years old.  I used to care about being in the trenches, bare knuckle punching policy, parties, and pols.  I don't give shit about that. When I argue on something I am like a dog with a bone, I don't let it go.  I think it is better to avoid arguing.  Discussing, sharing ideas, maybe even debating can be good and high level.  On social media, it is not not.  On a blog, it can be better.  There can be depth, there can be facts and support.  There can be a pause to reflect before one just reacts. I am going to be thinking about other topics to write about.

Media has been something I long have cared about.  Locally, the news media is dying.  There are good journalism going on, but we just have failures going on in what is being covered and we have so much garbage journalism.  I don't think there is much I can write about that.  The causes are evident to me and no one is willing to change, as the average person is the problem with the media and the average jane and joe are too lazy to change or learn anything.  It is like we are doomed and I don't know the value of that.  Maybe there is some data to collect on who and what media exists.  Maybe there is something I can add.  I will try, but as I age my expectations don't expand like my waist.

Hamilton County 2023 Turnout by Generation

Hamilton County voter turnout was the highest level for a local election in recent memory. Abortion rights drove most of the additional turnout. Here is voter turnout by Generation:

These numbers are based on the updated voter registration data, not the final results, so there is a small variance. Below are final summary turnout results in the county.  First broken down by City vs Non-City:

 

Additionally, for those who like detail, here is turnout based on Neighborhood in the City and on Municipality outside of the City.  

Note that the City Neighborhoods are approximate, based on a precinct breakdown.  All 52 are included, but some neighborhoods are unable to be broken out separately.

What to Watch For in the Election Night Results in Cincinnati

For news junkies like myself, election night gives off a holiday eve vibe with lots to get exited about.  Here is a list of what I look for:

What time will the initial results come in from the Hamilton County Board of Election? The board of election reports actual voting results as fast as it can, but the first report is what I call "The Flop." This initial report is of no election day votes, but does include nearly all of the absentee and early voting results.  Under the old punch-card system, the BOE would report these results in a few minutes after the polls close.  Since we changed to an optical scan system around 20ish years ago, they don't move as fast.    I like to guess the time it posts, a friendly game to play while we wait for results.  For most elections it is within 30 minutes of polls closing.  After The Flop the next time to look any additional results is when the first precincts are reported.  That time is widely variable and has far more elements and people to determine when that information is reported. I don't expect those before an hour after polls close.  Unless there were long lines or other delays with certain precincts, all of the precincts are reported by midnight. There are still some absentee mail ballots pending for days and the provisional ballots, which have many other steps to go before all votes are tabulated.  This can take many days.

What will the Flop tell us about who will win? In the past The Flog was mostly just mail in votes, but since Obama's first election in 2008 this has grown bigger. Early voting has become a normally large portion of voting, especially for Democrats.  For Ohio the tilt to Democratic voters is still a clear variation, but the variances now are not as drastic as 2020, but still show a clear lean for Democrats.

For County or lower level races this gives a very telling snapshot, depending on the snap shot.  In the case of the City of Cincinnati, it really sets the table on any likely outcome.  For all of the City elections you should have a very clear idea of possible outcomes and likely the winners.

There are two main factors to consider: 1)What area does the race cover and 2) what is the variance between choices in the race.  For example, let's look at Issue 23 with fairly uncontroversial elements. This issue covers the City of Cincinnati only.  This means that the City results are what to watch.  The City is heavily Democratic, so The Flop is providing a more common representation of the overall vote.  The variance between the Yes/No results is then considered. There is no magic number or chart to check, but the bigger the lead one result has, the more likely it will win, no matter what variance may occurr with the election day vote base. For Issue 23 if is winning 58% to 42% after the Flop, it will win. If it is winning 52% to 48%, then odds are good it will win, but not as good.  The closer it gets, the more the electorate on election day could sway.  One VERY IMPORTANT thing to remember, these odds are not going to be enough in most cases to call the race.  The number of votes out there will be such that the other side "could" still win.  Issue 22 is one race that has less predictability on it, as the variation of which voting blocks are for or against the issue are not clearly drawn. That being said, on any ballot issue in the City, you NEVER want to be behind on the Flop. This ends up being a situation when people confuse possibility with probability.  This happens to often.

For the City Council race, with a non-binary voting options, the issues are different.  The gaps between each candidate then become the first question.  After the Flop the key issue is the vote result gap.  How far out is the 10th place from the top 9 places.  The bigger the gap, the smaller the chance that #10 can over take that candidate. The next question would the voting blocks each candidate relies upon. For the Democrats this year, they have the Dem Ticket and that block is strong. If they have all 9 slots and Republican Keating is last, her gap needs to be very small with the 9th place to give her the chance to pick up the small influx of Republican voters on election day (vs early voting). If Keating is not in 10th Place, she would be in a great position to win.  The higher she is in order, the more she locks in finishing in the top 9. There is far less certainty is this type of race, so less certainty comes from the Flop. If this was a mayoral election, it would be a different story.

What about State Wide Issues? Hamilton County results are not going to be an indication of anything alone with State wide issues, but there is an expectation game.  On Issues 1 and 2 HamCo would be expected to beat the polling numbers for those issues to pass.  That gets more pressing when look at just the City of Cincinnati results.  The same factors on what will happen can come from The Flop, but then the party swing with early voting becomes a bigger factor. What this means:  If the Yes polling result for Issue 1 is 58% for the State, Hamilton County should be significantly higher on that for it occur.  That direction is what should be examined.  When The Flop happens, Issue 1 should be dominating the county. Then as the election day results come in, when more Republican voters go to the polls, the Yes percentage should drop.  There is no set number to watch for, beyond The Flop. If they Flop is close or less than the polling numbers, that is a indicator of where things are going.  Again, this is not anything definitive on actual results, but it can tell you that the polling was off.

Where are the Election Night Parties? Ok, this is one that is far less fun than it used to be. Firstly it is less fun for me as I've gotten much older and can't stay out late.  The other reason is the toxic state of politics.  In the past, you could be friendly with those that don't agree with your politics.  Today, it is very difficult to put aside politics and be humans.  This is even true within political parties as well as between political parties. The negative and very nasty way the Anti-Issue 22 campaign waged demonstrated this more than anything.  It is so toxic.  I've seen people behave so terribly online with this campaign that it is very troublesome.  People could put aside the conflict once the polls close.  I will do my best to hold my tongue when Issue 24 crash and burns, but there are political groups who just spew so much negativity, I am not going to consider myself congenial if I just say nothing at all.