Sept 4th Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

Today is Labor Day, the traditional start of the full campaign season.  Today I am also posting what should be the finalized candidate list.  Four candidates that turned in signatures did not have them verified and failed to make the ballot.  One new write in candidate was added on.  Write in candidates have a much lower threshold to meet, but they don't have their name on the ballot.  If a voter writes them in, they will be counted.  If a voter writes in anyone else not on the ballot, that vote will not count.

Now we get into who might win.  Based on my analysis this year, there are currently four candidates likely to win. That leaves fives seats really up for grabs.  This analysis is based on a key element: enthusiasm is higher with the  Democratic base.  Getting out your base is a requirement for Council wins.  With a wide field of Dems (endorsed and not) that puts a second requirement of being a known credible candidate.  Incumbents generally get that automatically.  Endorsements, money, media attention, and name recognition make up the other common ways of being credible.  I have never seen a non-credible candidate win.

I've added referenced to a couple of conservative leaning endorsement groups, the FOP and PWR PAC, that announced their endorsements recently.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)

Likely
David Mann* (D,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed)
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D)
Ozie Davis III (D, FOP, PWRendorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C, PWR endorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed)
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Greg Landsman (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Amy Murray* (R,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R, FOP endorsed)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I, FOP, PWR and for some reason G endorsed)


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Manuel Foggie
Henry Frondorf (C, PWR endorsed) (D)
Seth Maney (R, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Tamie Sullivan (G, FOP endorsed) (R)

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Brian Garry (G endorsed) (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Dadrien Washington (Write-In)


Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
FOP= Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police (Union) Endorsement
PWR = Partnership of Westside Residence PAC Endorsement

Post Deadline Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

27 candidates are on the list, with 8 of those pending on verification of signatures.  A big list, but not as big as it was expected.  8 other candidates had indications they were running.  1 of those 8 was endorsed by the Green Party and another 1 of the 8 had a full website up and running, but couldn't get enough signatures.

1 new candidate, Peterson Mingo, a fairly well known local Minister, surprisingly submitted signatures and is pending to get on the ballot.  His name recognition is his only asset at this point, but even that is clouded by legal trouble he was in regarding city building code violations.  He might get new voters out to polls, which could drive more votes to other candidates, especially in the mayor's race.  No word on who he is supporting in that contest, but he did get help from John Cranley for the legal trouble his was in.

Now the fun begins.  Money is a key element to know who stands the biggest chance, but face to face connections matter.  Endorsements of various groups matter.  The FOP endorsements are out and they skipped two retired police officers and picked all of the Republicans.  Shocked I am not.

I will continue providing updates to this list as the campaign rolls on, but only to shift candidates to new categories as things change.  Predicting candidates in anything other than general categories is pointless, so their may not be much fluctuation.  News coverage, new endorsements, new money are the drives for much of the fluctuation.  Those who are seen to be pressing the flesh, show they are serious.  Those who look like they are professional serious candidates are more likely than those who appear to be fly-by-night candidates to win, so they move closer to be considered in the mix. The big ride begins now.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed) ‡

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed) ‡
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed) ‡
Wendell Young* (D endorsed) ‡

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed) ‡
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed) ‡
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed) ‡
Leslie Jones (D endorsed) ‡
Greg Landsman (D endorsed) ‡
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed) ‡
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed) ‡
Laure Quinlivan (D) ‡
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed) ‡


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D) ‡
Manuel Foggie ‡
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Seth Maney (R endorsed) ‡
Beverly Odoms (D) ‡
Tamie Sullivan (R) ‡
Peterson Mingo ‡

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I) ‡
Cristina Burcica (I) ‡
Herschel Chalk II ‡
Brian Garry (D) ‡
Kelli Prather (D) ‡
Theo Barnes ‡

Not on the Ballot
Dawud Mustafa
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Michael Rachford
Edith Thrower
Orlando Welborn (D)
Matt Teaford (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

August Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

This coming week is it for candidates trying to get on the ballot for the 2017 Cincinnati Council race. August 24th is the deadline and there are many who announced they are running, but have not turned in their signatures yet, including several endorsed candidates.  I don't know what would be taking so long for the endorsed candidates, they should have plenty of party members to sign, unless it's the Green Party.

Making the ballot will not be finalized on the 24th, it will require review of the signatures before the candidate is officially on the ballot.  I think the maximum number on the ballot will be 28, which leaves out the "Are They Actually Running?" group below.  With only 16 listed on the BOE unofficial listing, that is quite a bit of activity for the remaining 12.  I'll post an update to the listing once the ballot is finalized, hopefully in 7 to 10 days.  After that I'll start reviewing the financials of candidates and see who else any sense of a campaign.


Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed) ‡

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed) ‡
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed) ‡
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed) ‡
Leslie Jones (D endorsed) ‡
Greg Landsman (D endorsed) ‡
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed) ‡
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed) ‡
Laure Quinlivan (D) ‡
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed) ‡


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Manuel Foggie ‡
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Seth Maney (R endorsed)
Beverly Odoms (D)
Tamie Sullivan (R) ‡
Matt Teaford (I)

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Cristina Burcica (I) ‡
Herschel Chalk II
Dawud Mustafa
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Brian Garry (D) ‡
Kelli Prather (D)

Are the Actually Running?
Theo Barnes
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Michael Rachford
Edith Thrower
Orlando Welborn (D)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.


As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (cincyblog@aol.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

WCPO Fails to Address the 800 Pound Recession

One sentence, that's all the mention the Great Recession got in this WCPO article about the last ten years of the Banks development and wasn't even referenced as major recession:

Since then, a recession has come and gone.

Ten years ago in 2007 the American economy was on its way down and in 2008 it hit rock bottom and has been slowly rising ever since. That played a part in how the the project and every element of business and government has functioned since. That massive fact was not addressed in the article.  That leaves a big hole in this piece and undercuts the theme about the choice of the developer being the cause of the Banks not meeting its deadline.  I think there is more to the story, but WCPO didn't do the homework.

Enquirer's Jason Williams Carries Cranley's Water, Again

The Enquirer's sometimes reporter sometimes columnist Jason Williams wrote another column yesterday and not surprisingly the it touts a Cranley political attack. This column is very pro-Cranley and paints him with an altruistic brush, one crafted by Cranley supporter. Williams has been carrying Cranley's water for years and shows no signs of letting up.  His value as a journalist is weakened every time he does what Cranely or his staff wants.  Show truth, don't just spew one side's argument.

If one wanted to read an article with more value, one would do better by reading the Cincinnati Business Courier's Chris Wetterich in his article covering the same topic as Cranley's grandstanding on attending meetings. What you get from Wetterich is another side of the story, from Charlie Winburn. The lame duck Republican member of council pushes back hard on Cranley's grandstanding. Winburn should know about that too, he's a known expert at grandstanding.  This is the type of journalism we need on a local level, more detailed and less stained with the fingerprints of the staff of one of subjects of the article.

July Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

We are into the home stretch for those declaring their candidacy and getting on the ballot. There are only 12 candidates thus far who have submitted signatures to qualify for the ballot. The filing deadline is August 24th, so there is still time for those out there trying to get on the ballot, but not much time life. Unless there is a very well known or wealthy person who wants to gets on the ballot, then at this point it would take a massive effort for a new candidate to break into the top half of finishers. With four year terms, serious candidates have been working at this for months now and have raised some money and built a ground game.  This is not the type of race that can be won with a Facebook page and a few handmade signs.  Organization is the key to this race and reaching and motivating voters is the goal.  As August goes on, I'll update the listing if there is significant activity before the 24th. Once the ballot is set, I plan on maintain a listing of candidates based on likelihood of winning.


Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed) ‡

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed) ‡
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed) ‡
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Laure Quinlivan (D) ‡
Greg Landsman (D endorsed) ‡
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed) ‡
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed) ‡
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed) ‡
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed)

Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Manuel Foggie ‡
Beverly Odoms (D)
Matt Teaford (I)
Tamie Sullivan (R)
Seth Maney (R endorsed)

Also Ran
Dawud Mustafa
Brian Garry (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Cristina Burcica (I) ‡
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Herschel Chalk II

Are the Actually Running?
Theo Barnes
Orlando Welborn (D)
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Edith Thrower
Michael Rachford

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.


As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (cincyblog@aol.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

Is Seth Maney Intentionally Trying to Appear Snarky and Abrasive?

I am not sure if this was intentional or if this image was partially shaped by the presentation of the Enquirer's Jason Williams in his PX Column For this gay Cincinnati candidate, 'identity politics is a joke', but Republican City Council Candidate Seth Maney comes across incredibly snarky and abrasive.  I think I'm being generous with that observation.  What wasn't reported in the article was how Maney can square being openly gay with running as candidate for a political party that is openly anti-gay. That is a question he will face from anyone who supports LGBTQ rights.

Instead the article paints Maney as being almost self righteous about not running as the gay candidate, while still making sure everyone know's he's gay.  He is still playing identity politics, but he's being a hypocrite about it.  You can't honestly be against calling attention to the fact you are not doing something, when by calling attention to that you in fact do the thing you are against.

With the stances of the Republican Party on LGBTQ issues, it is a mystery why an openly gay person would run for office as a Republican.  This article didn't dig into that.  The local media hasn't been too interested in asking local Republican candidates about their stances on Trump or other State or National issues that make the GOP and their followers appear to be theocratic fascists, or just not willing to publish their answers.

Maney didn't give an stance on the Streetcar to the Enquirer, which is not surprising.  As a person involved with OTR he likely at least voiced support for the project, if not a documented supporter, but will do what ever he can to make City Republicans either never find that out or if he goes against the project think it is "Fake News".  As a resident of Clifton he is going to have to take a position on extending the Streetcar up to UC and Pill Hill.  His website lacks any policy positions, so other than this article, we don't have much public info on any of his stances on the issues facing the city. At best we have caricature of Seth Maney and so far he is not acting like someone who has something offer the city, he just wants to promote his image.  That's not much of a candidate and just makes him look self absorbed.