Young Dems Can Count

The Young Dems are getting some flack from at least one person running for council, but you can't knock their ability to count to Nine:

Ten minus two plus one equals Nine.

A Public Demonstration that Smitherman is Crazy

Yes, most people know that Chris Smitherman has a screw loose. If you don't know, then have a look at this over 13 minute long rambling video that Smitherman made himself. He has no support to back up any of the wild and outlandish claims he makes, but damn it sure makes a good (yet boring) Crazy Guy video.

Smitherman is a big supporter of John Cranley and it has been reported that Cranley has stated that Smitherman would be a "big part" of the Cranley administration if he won the Mayor's race.

Oh, by the way, Smitherman is a sitting member of council and is running again. He makes these types of videos often. Who supports him? What type of person believes the crap he is saying? Ignorance is not much of an excuse, but I guess that's the type of voter Smitherman preys upon.

Side note: John Cranley had a link to this video on his Facebook page today. It is no longer there. I guess Cranley's knee-jerk judgement is to believe and trust what Smitherman says on the surface, but when people pointed out the lies Smitherman was saying about Democrats running for Council, someone in the Cranley camp took it down. More bad Cranley Judgement, just like John Elkington.

UPDATE: Evidence of Cranley posting this video to social media is here from Greg Harris.

Election Night Parties

As is traditional here at Cincinnati Blog, we aim to unify the voters. The need to drink after an election is universal, so I will again do my best to promote where the candidates are headed on election night. Please pass on any additional locations or corrections.

Chris Seelback - Milton's OTR/Liberty Hill
Wendell Young - Mahogany's Downtown/Banks
Roxanne Qualls - Mahogany's Downtown/BanksY
Yvette Simpson - Mixx OTR
Michelle Dillingham - Park + Vine OTR
Laure Quinlivan - Kaze OTR
Mike Moroski - Rhinehaus OTR
Charter Committee - Arnold's Downtown
Kevin Johnson - Sonny's All Blues Cafe & Lounge North Avondale

Charlie Winburn - Winburn Campaign HQ College Hill
Republican "Leadership" - Montgomery Inn Boathouse Downtown

Dillingham TV Commerical "A Seat at the Table"

Chris Seelbach For Council TV Commerical

Cranley Prefers Big-Box Development

Many people have forgotten, but John Cranley was a big supporter of putting the Big-Box retail into Oakley 10 years ago. The residents of Oakley very opposed to putting a big box style strip-mall in their neighborhood.   John Cranley's answer to their concerns of suburban creep in their neighborhood and the waste of land for a bland and dysfunctional development:

"Beggars can't be choosers."

Yeah, Mr. Neighborhood is all about doing what he thinks is best (or what benefits him), not what the neighborhood thinks is best.

Council Race - One Week Out

This year's Council Race has many unknown variables to it. Turnout will drive who wins and who loses as much as how well a particular candidate has run their campaign. Conventional wisdom says that 2011 was an outlier year, where Dems won big.  This year when the GOP could have picked up seats, they only endorsed two credible candidates.  The battle will be along the varied voting fault lines in the city.  How deep will Republican voters go, will they vote a short ticket of five or six?  Will the conservative African-American vote rally around Charlie Winburn and Chris Smitherman and build a bridge to the GOP or with other more liberal/moderate African-American voters?  Will  African-American voters in general stay home?  Will the moderate GOP/Dems support the Charter backed group pushed by the Enquirer or will they splinter?

The biggest question this year will be how much will the Streecar & Parking issues out weigh traditional party based voting? Secondarily: will the average number of votes per ballot drop this year below six?

Here are my gut feelings on who stands the best chance of winning next Tuesday.  This breakdown is based on my review of the candidates: strengths, weaknesses, and performance thus far. In 2011 I was way off.  This year I generally followed similar logic as used two years ago and gave much deference to incumbancy, which threw off my predictions back then.  If things turn out differently, there is not much out there to predict the results.  The turnout question likely could affect this most, with low turnout favoring the both the incumbents and the Republicans.

Likely:
P.G. Sittenfeld

Strong Position:
Greg Landsman
Laure Quinlivan
Chris Seelbach
Yvette Simpson
Charlie Winburn
Wendell Young

In the Mix:
Michelle Dillingham
Kevin Flynn
David Mann
Amy Murray
Christopher Smitherman
Pam Thomas

Outside Shot:
Shawn Butler
Kevin Johnson
Sam Malone
Mike Moroski
Melissa Wegman
Vanessa White

Also Rans:
Angela Beamon
Timothy Dornbusch

My take is that there is only one candidate who will breeze into a victory and that is Sittenfeld.  There are 12 others with varied levels of significant possibility.  Who makes it from that group is up to the campaigns, the voters, and the weather.  The rest of the candidates have large hurdles to over come to win.  Several of the them are first time candidates who normally would be paying their dues this year as a set up for another run in two years.  With the unwise change in the length council terms, we are losing out on our ability to create new candidates.  I hope those candidates can hold on and run again in four years with more experience and resources.