Election Post-Mortem

The final election results are in. Once again, Roxanne Qualls was the top vote-getter. Greg Harris has been ousted from Council, and Charlie Winburn and Laurie Quinlivan will join the fray. What does all this mean?

First, the political breakdown is as follows: Council now has three Democrats plus a Charterite/Democrat; one independent (Berding); three Republicans; and a Charterite who leans Republican.

Next, the big question is on the 2010 budget. Part of that will depend on what happens with property tax. Crowley and Harris, as lame ducks, could be in favor of ending the property tax "rollback," which would constitute a significant tax increase. If that's so, a tax increase would pass if just three members of the newly constituted Council were in agreement. (The property tax millage must be finalized next week, before the new Council takes office.)

But if the property tax isn't raised, the budget will need to be reduced by around 50 million dollars. I thought Greg Harris had offered a plan that made sense: go to the unions (including the FOP) for concessions in 2010, with reimbursement made in 2011 and 2012. The problem, of course, is that 5 members have apparently made promises that there would be no police or fire layoffs. If they're unwilling to change their positions, then concessions are out of the question. (If I were a union member, and I knew that my employer would not, under any circumstance, reduce the size of its workforce, I'd vote against concessions). That may mean huge cuts in services: parks and recreation; health clinics; reduced trash collection.

I suspect Mayor Mallory learned a lesson as an incumbent executive. He knew he had won the race and, he acknowledges, he didn't campaign very hard. But this race wasn't about him. It was about the Council he'd be working with. Mayor Mallory is an extremely likeable guy who campaigns well. He needed to be on the trail more to support the Dems for Council. This was the first time Mallory was in this position, so the error is certainly understandable. The mayor will come to regret that his coattails weren't a little bit longer this year. But his personality and affability may make him uniquely able to bridge the divisions amongst the current Council to build a majority that can govern sensibly and effectively.

Jeff Berding may be the key to a governing majority. If he wishes to mend fences with the Democratic party, he may join forces with Qualls, Quinlivan, Thomas, and Cole. But he's been treated badly enough that it's unlikely he'll be looking to make peace. Instead, the Council Dems will have to find a way to offer him an olive branch if they wish to garner his vote on important issues.

Council committee chairs are appointed by the mayor, so expect little changes there. That means Cole probably retains the gavel in Finance. But membership (and vice-chairs) are elected by Council, so there should be some shake-ups in the composition of the committees.

Finally, there's one thing I don't understand, perhaps because I've only lived in Cincinnati since 2000: why does Roxanne Qualls do so well in these field races? Don't get me wrong. Qualls is smart as hell, and I enjoy hearing her pontificate on public policy; she resembles liberals who are about 30-40 years older than she is. (Qualls often reminds me of Daniel Patrick Moynihan.) But Qualls isn't terribly charismatic, at least not in the traditional politician sense of the word. And "smart" doesn't always get you very far with the electorate; we live in a county that twice sent George W. Bush to the White House. It's got to be more than mere name recognition. What's the answer? Why does Qualls do so well with so many demographic and geographic groups across the city?

Council Race

Alright, yet another post.

98.50% of City precincts have reported. I'm not sure the last 1.5 percent will change the running order much. If not, the order of finish is:

Qualls

Thomas

Bortz

Berding

Ghiz

Monzel

Cole

Winburn

Quinlivan.

Greg Harris is in 10th place, a full .7% behind Quinlivan.

This Council is going to present a much greater challenge for Mayor Mallory with respect to building a governing coalition. I'm not sure that I see either Winburn or Quinlivan being consistent party-line voters.

Mayor's Race: Mallory Wins

Ok. One more post. If you didn't see it on WCPO: Brad Wenstrup has conceded the race to Mayor Mallory. We should thank Wenstrup for being willing to serve his community, even if he was ultimately rebuffed by the voters.

And congratulations to Mayor Mark Mallory. I voted for him last time, and did so again this time. His first job will be to rebuild a fractured Council. But his talents may be uniquely suited to doing just that. Time will tell.

This Doesn't Mean "Yes" On Streetcars

Issue 9 is clearly going to fail. But I'd better not hear streetcar supporters tell me this means Cincinnatians favor streetcars.

You told us that Issue 9 was about more than streetcars. It was about all passenger rail. And even more broadly, it was about our form of government. We're supposed to, you told us, trust our elected officials to make these decisions.

I remain relatively ambivalent about the streetcar. I thought Issue 9 represented bad government and voted against it accordingly. But don't tell me my vote translates to approval of a streetcar.

No on Nine Winning Big!

The votes are almost all in, and I think Issue Nine will fail! A last
minute prediction.

Live-Blogging Results

I'm in the office late tonight, so I'll be live-blogging election results as they're available from the BOE. I will continue to update this post as the night goes on; feel free to use this as a comment thread, as well.

8:10 PM: HamCo BOE has released some results. 0 precincts reporting, but constitutes 6% of registered voters. Must be absentees.

• Issue 9: losing, 51.72-48.25. Too close to call.
• Issue 8: Passing, 65-35.
• Mayor: Wenstrup and Mallory in a dead heat.
• Council: VERY early results: Harris losing, all other incumbents winning, plus Winburn and Quinlivan.

10:25: Still holding at about 10% of precincts city-wide, 5% county-wide.

• Mayor: Mallory, 56-43. Expect this lead to grow through the night.
• Council: Harris is first out, but only by .01%. Cole is in ninth. Winburn and Quinlivan in 7th and 8th, respectively. Twenty-five percent of all council ballots cast thus far have under-votes.
• County-wide levies are all winning by a healthy margin, except Issue 4, which is losing 51-49. It'll be close, but I expect it'll pass.
• The Cincinnati school levee also passing, 55-45.

10:30: Finally, updated results. 16% of precincts county-wide, 23 % city-wide.

• Mayor: The race tightens again. Wenstrup with a narrow lead now.
• Council: Holding as before. Qualls doing extremely well.
• School board: Looks like Bates, Cooper-Reed, Ingram, and White. Haap lagging well behind in 11th, beating only Curtis Wells.
• All county-wide levies are now passing.
• Issue 9 is failing, 54 to 46.

Honestly, folks, I don't know what to make of the mayor's race. I don't know what precincts have reported in, but the fact that Issue 9 is now being soundly defeated and the mayor's race is this tight is leaving me perplexed.

10:40: More results. 55% of city precincts; 35% county-wide.

• Mayor: Mallory back to a ten-point lead. I'm really curious now as to which precincts the last batch of votes came from.
• Council: These votes are from heavily Democratic wards. Cole's up to 5th, Quinlivan to 5th. Ghiz would be last on: Watson first out; Harris in 10th.
• All county-wide levies passing. School board levy passing.
• Issue 9 failing, 56-44.

11:10: 78% of city precincts.

• Mayor: Still Mallory, but a little tighter: 53-46.
• Council: Order: Qualls Thomas Bortz Berding Ghiz Monzel Winburn Quinlivan. Harris in 10th, down by .5%, which is looking like a lot right now.
• Issue 9 being handily defeated, 56 - 49.
• All county and the Cincinnati school levies are passing.

At this point, you've got the news outlets covering the races. I've got an early morning and am headed to bed. Look for some analysis from Griff and me tomorrow.

Some Random Election Thoughts

As Election Day winds down, I had a few thoughts to share.

First, I hope Greg Harris retains his seat. Conventional wisdom holds that as an appointee, he is the most vulnerable of the incumbent Council members (though I suspect it may be a long night for Jeff Berding), but Harris was the only candidate to offer a specific path forward to closing the looming budget gap. His approach to police and firefighter concessions--pay cuts (but no layoffs) next year that would be restored in 2011 and 2012--is a long-term approach that should be acceptable to the unions. I don't agree with Harris on everything (and particularly not on his stance on "environmental justice"), but he is thoughtful and overall, an asset on City Council.

Second, I hope County voters see the merit in Issue 4 and approve it. The levy--the former Drake levy--funds the Drug Court and other important programs that provide avenues to rehabilitation and re-entry. Drug addiction is a problem that nearly anyone, given the right circumstances, could be susceptible to. I can't tell you how many people I've represented for unlawfully possessing prescription drugs whose addiction started with a legal prescription following an injury of some sort. And even street drugs can afflict nearly anyone. (Have Cincinnatians really forgotten Josh Hamilton already?)

Finally, I'm hoping we can have a reprieve of the current hyper-political climate, at least for a few months, before it's time for the 2010 campaigns to begin in earnest.