Council Predictions 2007 - Final Round

Ok, it is time for the final installment of council predictions. Today, I'm going to make a full prediction, including order of finish. Other than the top few, I have no real way to know who will get on, and the order of finish is nearly always a surprise. I'm making my guesses based most only my gut. I couldn't afford a crack staff of 25 analysts this year. Sorry about that, maybe next year for the big election. Anyway, here is what I say will happen:

John Cranley
Roxanne Qualls
David Crowley
Chris Bortz
Laketa Cole
Charlie Winburn
Chris Monzel
Cecil Thomas
Greg Harris
Leslie Ghiz
Jeff Berding
Minette Cooper
John Eby
Joan Kaup
Sam Malone
Melanie Bates
Pat Fischer
Wendell Young
Brian Garry
Andre Harper
Justin Jeffre
George Zamary
Mitch Painter
Michael Earl Patton
Steve Pavelish

Voter turnout will be the key factor this year, with the last few to get on council still up in the air. The two in the top that could really move are Cole and Winburn. Cole will unfortunately likely still win. She could drop like a rock to 7th or 8th place. Winburn could move up, depending on voter turnout and if he is keeping both the Conservative and Black votes he has had before.

I'll be doing more blogging tomorrow during the day. Keep me posted on any voting problems. This is another year where we have to have ID to vote. I just moved, and I have the electric bill as back-up ready to go!

Does First Place Matter This Year?

Other than for ego, will coming in first place for City Council actually do anything for the candidate? For Cranley or Qualls will be number get them anything? I would guess that Crowely will remain Vice Mayor. Will they get better committee chairs? The article makes the point that convention wisdom states that the top vote getter can use the status being number one to get higher office. Would Cranley or Qualls run for Mayor next time around? Will Cranley take on DeWine for the County Commission? Yes, I'm looking ahead, but Cranley and Qualls are going to win, so we can start looking ahead for them.

More on the the Murder on Main

Yes, the alliteration is a bit much, but here's a story on the murder near 12th and Main on Wednesday night. This article reports that police are investigating the possibility that the shooting stemmed from an argument inside Club Red. Was Club Red even open that night?

More on the Brink

Get the lowdown on the Brink music showcase tomorrow night, including a nice background on the bands from the organizer of the fest, Dan McCabe.

Takedown of Winburn and Malone

In case you missed it, here's the website that exposes certain sides of Charlie Winburn and to a degree Sam Malone. Malone is toast anyway, so this really hits more on Winburn and his extreme odd church.

CityBeat Council Endorsements

I am somewhat surprised by some of CityBeat's Endorsements. Here they are:
Chris Bortz
Laketa Cole
John Cranley
David Crowley
John Eby
Brian Garry
Greg Harris
Joan Kaup
Roxanne Qualls

I am a little bit surprised, but pleased they support John Eby. I disagree on some issues with John, but he is a good guy, and is the best Republican in the field.

I am very surprised about Laketa Cole. Even without her recent Drama, she's not been a good council member, and how she's been working with the fiscal five should turn her off from the usual CityBeat philosophy.

I am also surprised CityBeat has a very white slate. I think Cecil Thomas is worthy of consideration, even with his conservative social views. With CityBeat's choices as cover, I might be able to avoid some of the White Guilt crowd's anger when I say this year there is a clear lack of good minority candidates. There by comparison an increased number of non-minority quality Urbanist-Progressive candidates attractive to CityBeat. This does not fit the demographics of the city, however. Does this bode well for the future?

More Thugs on Main?

I think I saw a couple of cop cars fly down my street last night racing towards Main, but I didn't notice a crowd at all. They didn't run down 12th Street my way. With another murder on Main two things need to happen. Firstly, the corner of 12th and Main needs to be cleaned up. Station a cop there all the time. Drive out the criminals. The Jordan attracts criminals. The section 8 housing on Main and 12th needs better management to get the problem people out or in jail when they break the law.

Secondly, if the clubs down there are at all to blame for bringing in stupid wannabe gang bangers. It is a rather simple thing, don't cater to the thugs. Do promote gang life, don't glorify it and the thug will stay away.

What is funny, if I hadn't read about this today, I wouldn't have know this happened 2 blocks from where I live. Who would ever have guessed that 12th and Vine is far safer than 12th and Main Street?