Saturday, December 30, 2017

Jason Williams' Playbook is Thin and Trite and Based on People in Power

With his year end kiss ass and trash column, the Enquirer's columnist Jason Williams lays out his jounalisticpolitical philosophy: kiss the ass of the people in power and Trash those who stand up to those in power (access is all that matters.)

If one reads his list of "cheers and jeers" for the year you will find it filled with ass kissing of those in power and trashing of their political foes.  The worst "cheer" was this bullshit about Mayor John Cranley:
Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley for staying out of the mud as his political enemies hurled ugly and unfounded racially charged comments at him in fliers, mailers and on social media during the campaign.
I know Jason is in the bag for Cranley and he prints the vast majority of stories Cranley wanted, but this just takes the cake. Jason knows Cranley's opponent in the Mayor's race Yvette Simpson was horribly attacked by people on social media, making up lies. Jason appeared to ignore that and instead pushed the Cranley propaganda making him the victim.  Sure, I guess he could be ignoring social media, but when he uses his column to lash back to his critics on social media, you know he's at least reading the Enquirer's local politics Facebook group.

What adds to Williams' journalistic malpractice is in his attack on FC Cincinnati's efforts to obtain public funding for infrastructure in support of a new soccer specific stadium he refused to say a word against John Cranley's major part in approving the funding. It is quite clear that Cranley was the primary public official who was organizing the effort to create a deal for the infrastructure and he finessed the deal when it hit a road block at the last minute.

Cranley was a key player of the secret cabal that Williams ripped earlier in the year when he  criticized the secrecy of FCC for keeping the government's plan to fund the infrastructure secret before the election.  He said nothing about the obvious: Cranley kept the story in secert, with Jeff Berding's help, to avoid a MASSIVE CONTROVERSY, before the election.  Right after the election, BOOM, we have an instant plan ready to go and the Conservative portion of council was ready to help out Republican Carl Linder.  This basic concept is ignored by columnist Jason Williams. 

Yes, I'm no longer calling Williams a sometimes reporter, sometimes columnist.  He just a columnist.  Any article that touches anything about politics or government that he writes has to be taken a a column.  There is no other was to approach it as a news consumer.  You can' trust him, you have to assume his bias.  His real problem as a columnist goes even further, he actually has no ideology.  He appears to be one of those who try to claim to not be either a Democrat or Republican.  That is a psychological dodge, everyone has political opinions.  Those who appear to pick and chose issues are more likely opportunists who would rather just be on the perceived winning side.

Bottom line, he's no Peter Bronson, no matter how he tries.  I couldn't stand Bronson's columns or political views, but they were identifiable and honestly what Bronson believed.  I don't think Williams believes anything, he's just trying to build up a persona.  His new found stints as a guest on 700WLW alone demonstrate he's not serious, just a wanna-be talking head, looking to move up.

Monday, November 06, 2017

Election Night Parties!

Campaigns like to celebrate or commiserate their efforts on election night.  Here's a list where candidates and their campaign staff and supports plan on meeting up:

Chris Smitherman - Jim and Jacks on the River (3456 River Road)
Henry Frondorf - West Side Brewing
Yvette Simpson  - Queen City Radio
Tamaya Dennard - The Vestry
Michelle Dillingham - Pendleton Arts Center
Mike Moroski - Arnold's
Hamilton County Republican Party - The Capital Grille
David Mann - The Woodburn Brewery
Brian Garry - Tillie’s Lounge
P.G. Sittenfeld- Eighth & English (O’Bryonville)
Chris Seelbach - Milton's
Derek Bauman - Milton's
Charter Committee - Arnold's
John Cranley - Americano

If there are more, I'll update as I find out about them.

Sunday, November 05, 2017

Solid Analysis on the Mayor's Race from Chris Wetterich

There have been no polls made public, but the Business Courier's Chris Wetterich has an a very solid analysis of the mayor's race.

Who wins will depend on turnout.  There is no magic to know the victors.  The only signs that point to Cranley having fear are:

  1. No internal polls have been reported, if they were good for Cranley we would have been hearing about them.
  2. Cranley has gone full born negative.  His media blitz and campaign supporters are all about tearing down Simpson and not delivering a positive message about Cranley.  Not a good sign.
This could mean it is a dead heat and the negative attacks make a marginal difference.  These negative attacks I believe have had a marginal effect, but only keeping some voters at home on election day.

Cranley will get the vast majority of the Republican votes.  His key question is will they turn out.  His other concerns are if he keeps enough of the Winburn/Tillery votes and if he's got enough old school loyal Democrats who value the State Party on his side.

Simpson's game rests on two fronts, turn out the vote and attract those spurned by Cranley and his allies.  She should get the majority of the African-American vote, but how big of a percentage will that be?  Will she also get the progressive vote to turn out?

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Council Race Heats Up

Only just over a week to go before the election and my mailbox is starting to fill up. I am disappointed seeing the State Democratic party dumping money into the Mayor's race with multiple mailers for Cranley. Even under new leadership they continue to make mistakes. Instead of trying to build a party to win in the upcoming elections, they handpicked candidates they think could have won prior elections they hope repeat in the future.

We are closer to start making some more predictions about the race. Haha! What I really mean is that I am getting closer to making some wild guesses based on conventional wisdom.  Council races are a mix of predictable and surprising.  It should be easy to predict 4 to 6 candidates.  The 4 Democratic incumbents are heavy CW favorites and the 2 Republicans (including Smitherman) have clear advantages.  What holds the 2 Republicans back is the most unpredictable element, voter turnout.  One of the most common CW tropes about Cincinnati elections is that the GOP votes more consistently in off year elections than the Dems.  Therefore the higher the turnout, the better Democratic candidates do.

I have updated my list below creating some new groups and shifting a few candidates around.  Those whom I am giving advantage is based on the campaign and a repeat turnout from 2013.  If turnout rises, look for candidates like Smitherman and Murray to fall and potentially be out of the top 9.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)

Likely
David Mann* (D,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed)

Some advantage:
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)
Amy Murray* (R,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I, FOP, PWR and for some reason G endorsed)
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C, PWR endorsed)
Greg Landsman (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)

In the Mix:
Ozie Davis III (D, FOP, PWRendorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed)
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R, FOP endorsed)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Outside Chance
Henry Frondorf (C, PWR endorsed) (D)
Seth Maney (R, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Tamie Sullivan (G, FOP endorsed) (R)

Chances Dropping
Tonya Dumas (D)
Manuel Foggie

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Brian Garry (G endorsed) (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Dadrien Washington (Write-In)


Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
FOP= Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police (Union) Endorsement
PWR = Partnership of Westside Residence PAC Endorsement