Sunday, November 05, 2017

Solid Analysis on the Mayor's Race from Chris Wetterich

There have been no polls made public, but the Business Courier's Chris Wetterich has an a very solid analysis of the mayor's race.

Who wins will depend on turnout.  There is no magic to know the victors.  The only signs that point to Cranley having fear are:

  1. No internal polls have been reported, if they were good for Cranley we would have been hearing about them.
  2. Cranley has gone full born negative.  His media blitz and campaign supporters are all about tearing down Simpson and not delivering a positive message about Cranley.  Not a good sign.
This could mean it is a dead heat and the negative attacks make a marginal difference.  These negative attacks I believe have had a marginal effect, but only keeping some voters at home on election day.

Cranley will get the vast majority of the Republican votes.  His key question is will they turn out.  His other concerns are if he keeps enough of the Winburn/Tillery votes and if he's got enough old school loyal Democrats who value the State Party on his side.

Simpson's game rests on two fronts, turn out the vote and attract those spurned by Cranley and his allies.  She should get the majority of the African-American vote, but how big of a percentage will that be?  Will she also get the progressive vote to turn out?

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