What to Write About for 2024?

It is 2024. Happy New Year!  Ok, so the honeymoon should be over in a Presidential Election year at about 12:04 AM on the 1st. It is day two of the year and I am looking ahead. Local elections are happening this year, but for Cincinnati there is not going to be much for me to write and think about. The Hamilton County Prosecuting Attorney and Sheriff races will be interesting to watch and should be competitive, but that's about it. 

Hamilton County has gone "Blue" in a partisan sense.  Compared to other urban counties, it is NOT as close and there are many more moderate voters that in certain races will easily split tickets.  For the Prosecutor's race the Republicans have had the edge for a long time.  This year is setting up to be one that the Democratic candidate has a very good chance of winning, with Joe Deters not on the ballot.

The most interesting thing I am seeing so far: All of the statehouse races in Hamilton County will be  contested by both parties.

 

National politics is something that is very difficult to write about.  State wide politics is also something that is difficult to write about for a large state like Ohio. I have no plans to write much about the Ohio Senate race as there is little I can add.

The only thing I may play with is using the State wide Voter Registration datasets.  I have linked in year end datasets and I plan on working on some statewide data.  I think getting turnout rates based on generation would be most interesting information I could compile.  In Hamilton County I have been doing this for years now, but seeing how different it would be statewide or for certain types of counties.  I don't have a profile created for all counties, but I could come up with some general variations.

I will be thinking about other topics to write about.  This blog used to be more active with more snark and more traditional political banter.  This blog is now almost 22 years old.  I used to care about being in the trenches, bare knuckle punching policy, parties, and pols.  I don't give shit about that. When I argue on something I am like a dog with a bone, I don't let it go.  I think it is better to avoid arguing.  Discussing, sharing ideas, maybe even debating can be good and high level.  On social media, it is not not.  On a blog, it can be better.  There can be depth, there can be facts and support.  There can be a pause to reflect before one just reacts. I am going to be thinking about other topics to write about.

Media has been something I long have cared about.  Locally, the news media is dying.  There are good journalism going on, but we just have failures going on in what is being covered and we have so much garbage journalism.  I don't think there is much I can write about that.  The causes are evident to me and no one is willing to change, as the average person is the problem with the media and the average jane and joe are too lazy to change or learn anything.  It is like we are doomed and I don't know the value of that.  Maybe there is some data to collect on who and what media exists.  Maybe there is something I can add.  I will try, but as I age my expectations don't expand like my waist.

Hamilton County 2023 Turnout by Generation

Hamilton County voter turnout was the highest level for a local election in recent memory. Abortion rights drove most of the additional turnout. Here is voter turnout by Generation:

These numbers are based on the updated voter registration data, not the final results, so there is a small variance. Below are final summary turnout results in the county.  First broken down by City vs Non-City:

 

Additionally, for those who like detail, here is turnout based on Neighborhood in the City and on Municipality outside of the City.  

Note that the City Neighborhoods are approximate, based on a precinct breakdown.  All 52 are included, but some neighborhoods are unable to be broken out separately.

What to Watch For in the Election Night Results in Cincinnati

For news junkies like myself, election night gives off a holiday eve vibe with lots to get exited about.  Here is a list of what I look for:

What time will the initial results come in from the Hamilton County Board of Election? The board of election reports actual voting results as fast as it can, but the first report is what I call "The Flop." This initial report is of no election day votes, but does include nearly all of the absentee and early voting results.  Under the old punch-card system, the BOE would report these results in a few minutes after the polls close.  Since we changed to an optical scan system around 20ish years ago, they don't move as fast.    I like to guess the time it posts, a friendly game to play while we wait for results.  For most elections it is within 30 minutes of polls closing.  After The Flop the next time to look any additional results is when the first precincts are reported.  That time is widely variable and has far more elements and people to determine when that information is reported. I don't expect those before an hour after polls close.  Unless there were long lines or other delays with certain precincts, all of the precincts are reported by midnight. There are still some absentee mail ballots pending for days and the provisional ballots, which have many other steps to go before all votes are tabulated.  This can take many days.

What will the Flop tell us about who will win? In the past The Flog was mostly just mail in votes, but since Obama's first election in 2008 this has grown bigger. Early voting has become a normally large portion of voting, especially for Democrats.  For Ohio the tilt to Democratic voters is still a clear variation, but the variances now are not as drastic as 2020, but still show a clear lean for Democrats.

For County or lower level races this gives a very telling snapshot, depending on the snap shot.  In the case of the City of Cincinnati, it really sets the table on any likely outcome.  For all of the City elections you should have a very clear idea of possible outcomes and likely the winners.

There are two main factors to consider: 1)What area does the race cover and 2) what is the variance between choices in the race.  For example, let's look at Issue 23 with fairly uncontroversial elements. This issue covers the City of Cincinnati only.  This means that the City results are what to watch.  The City is heavily Democratic, so The Flop is providing a more common representation of the overall vote.  The variance between the Yes/No results is then considered. There is no magic number or chart to check, but the bigger the lead one result has, the more likely it will win, no matter what variance may occurr with the election day vote base. For Issue 23 if is winning 58% to 42% after the Flop, it will win. If it is winning 52% to 48%, then odds are good it will win, but not as good.  The closer it gets, the more the electorate on election day could sway.  One VERY IMPORTANT thing to remember, these odds are not going to be enough in most cases to call the race.  The number of votes out there will be such that the other side "could" still win.  Issue 22 is one race that has less predictability on it, as the variation of which voting blocks are for or against the issue are not clearly drawn. That being said, on any ballot issue in the City, you NEVER want to be behind on the Flop. This ends up being a situation when people confuse possibility with probability.  This happens to often.

For the City Council race, with a non-binary voting options, the issues are different.  The gaps between each candidate then become the first question.  After the Flop the key issue is the vote result gap.  How far out is the 10th place from the top 9 places.  The bigger the gap, the smaller the chance that #10 can over take that candidate. The next question would the voting blocks each candidate relies upon. For the Democrats this year, they have the Dem Ticket and that block is strong. If they have all 9 slots and Republican Keating is last, her gap needs to be very small with the 9th place to give her the chance to pick up the small influx of Republican voters on election day (vs early voting). If Keating is not in 10th Place, she would be in a great position to win.  The higher she is in order, the more she locks in finishing in the top 9. There is far less certainty is this type of race, so less certainty comes from the Flop. If this was a mayoral election, it would be a different story.

What about State Wide Issues? Hamilton County results are not going to be an indication of anything alone with State wide issues, but there is an expectation game.  On Issues 1 and 2 HamCo would be expected to beat the polling numbers for those issues to pass.  That gets more pressing when look at just the City of Cincinnati results.  The same factors on what will happen can come from The Flop, but then the party swing with early voting becomes a bigger factor. What this means:  If the Yes polling result for Issue 1 is 58% for the State, Hamilton County should be significantly higher on that for it occur.  That direction is what should be examined.  When The Flop happens, Issue 1 should be dominating the county. Then as the election day results come in, when more Republican voters go to the polls, the Yes percentage should drop.  There is no set number to watch for, beyond The Flop. If they Flop is close or less than the polling numbers, that is a indicator of where things are going.  Again, this is not anything definitive on actual results, but it can tell you that the polling was off.

Where are the Election Night Parties? Ok, this is one that is far less fun than it used to be. Firstly it is less fun for me as I've gotten much older and can't stay out late.  The other reason is the toxic state of politics.  In the past, you could be friendly with those that don't agree with your politics.  Today, it is very difficult to put aside politics and be humans.  This is even true within political parties as well as between political parties. The negative and very nasty way the Anti-Issue 22 campaign waged demonstrated this more than anything.  It is so toxic.  I've seen people behave so terribly online with this campaign that it is very troublesome.  People could put aside the conflict once the polls close.  I will do my best to hold my tongue when Issue 24 crash and burns, but there are political groups who just spew so much negativity, I am not going to consider myself congenial if I just say nothing at all.

Cincinnati City Council Election October 2023 Update

The election is two weeks away and for City Council, we have no change. We are still going to have 8 Democrats on City Council. The largest majority for a single party in many decades. The right wing is seething over this and leftists are angry about not getting their way with a tiny number of supporters. There is a real race for the last two spots. I personally can see three ways for it turn out:

1. Liz Keating gets a bigger boost from incumbency and short ticket Republican voting and edges higher (6th or 7th place), pushing the last spot to an Albi-Walsh race.

2. Democratic turnout surges and the power of the slate is bigger with Issue 1 increasing turnout into the upper 30s percentage range and leaves Keating on the outside.

3. A three person race ensures; with Keating, Albi, and Walsh in a very close race that goes late into the night or even relies on provisional ballots to decide.

As usual, the flop on election night is what is the most interesting predictor. The flop, as I consider it, is the initial report the Hamilton County BOE makes on election night that reports the Early and Absentee vote totals.  This occurs fairly early in the evening, sometimes even before 8 PM.  With early voting a significant share from across the city, the initial results are unlikely to change if the variances between candidates are large enough. This year, that will be the tell for Keating.  If she is anywhere other than 10th place, she has a good shot.  If she is in 10th place, then she needs to be VERY close to the 9th place candidate.  As Republicans are generally not voting early in as large of numbers as Dems, she would stand to get a better surge of votes, especially with a spike of short ticket voting, from the election day votes.  With fewer Republicans in the City, that may not be enough.  Especially, since her two primary competitors, Albi and Walsh, would more than likely NOT be candidates a moderate or conservative voter would consider including on their ballot.

Issue 22 is not easily predictable.  The Support of the Democratic party and the silence from the Republican party make for a favorable outlook for passage, but it depends on turnout and if people vote down the ballot on most things.

Issue 23 should win with ease.  It is a reasonable measure that creates some improvements to the election process and operation of the City Council.

Issue 24 will very likely fail. No one wants to vote for a income tax increase. Add to that the issue is just another leftist scheme to force policy to the city without vetting the details of the plan and creating something that would intentionally tie the hands of future city councils is not a good idea.

Statewide Issues and 1 and 2 have one poll showing both with decent support.  Polling is not something to put much faith into, especially a single poll, but this poll is consistent with prior polling on the abortion issue generally in Ohio. There is no reason to expect a big drop in support for Issue 1, especially if turnout matches the August special election.

I am annoyed with the extreme level of propaganda from people against Issue 22. They have limited financial support, but the talking points that are being used by the anti-22 team online is either massively misleading or it is so generalized that it has no meaning. I am very disappointed with some individuals that have signed on with the Smitherman/COAST cabal leading the anti-22 efforts.  They have what I can best consider an emotional attachment to keeping the rail road and not a logical or analytical reasoning for their position. Fear that they can't control it seems more of their concern than the better financial position the city will obtain with the sale.

There have been few other outside groups with significant endorsements widely reported this year.  I can find no FOP endorsements and WVXU reports Liz Keating got a Charter endorsement, but other than a Xitter post about a fundraiser for Keating, I didn't find much on their support. I hear many complaints from Republicans and others about not having other candidates with diverse ideas to chose from, but Republicans and Charter have the means to support additional candidate to run, but they can't find any who are credible.  That is NOT the Dems fault, that is the fault of Republican and Charter organizations.  They need better leadership and real organization. You can't phone it in or be known as a party of extremists.  Maybe in 2025 they will find some candidates. I don't expect much.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent

Drama Free Zone

Early voting starts on Wednesday October 11th and it seems like there is no campaign going on. If you are reading this you might be longing for some political coverage of the election, but there really isn't anything to report.

If you want drama, then you want entertainment.  Political Journalism is about entertainment. There is so little good political journalism going on anywhere. One exception is a great article from Becca Costello at WVXU. Details, details, details is the core of what makes for good Political Journalism and that article has it from all sides.

I will avoid linking to the drama obsessed Enquirer.  I've recently tried to defend the Enquirer, as it is the most comprehensive local news source in the Cincinnati area. There political coverage is largely just entertainment for suburbanites.  We have a political journalist who is so transparently angered at the local Democratic Party for being successful. The passive aggressive angst seethes from Sharon Coolidge's articles.  She wants drama for her "news" article and she can't get Democrats on City Council to provide her with any.

We don't know much of what the candidates plan to do, but we know that unsuccessful left wing candidates can't understand why they are not welcome in the local Democratic Party after they burned every possible bridge they could over the last few elections.

I've been writing about local politics now for over 20 years and I am astonished at the apathy. Not only is the public apathetic, the local news media seems uninterested.

We'll have an election and stuff will happen.  There is actually some interesting variables to consider, but the discourse on politics today is just crap. The powerful tools available online are just garbage. You can't find any place to have a civil discussion on politics. I say that with a full acknowledgement that I myself have had many uncivil political arguments over the years. I believe I've tried to be honest and not rude.  I've been rude in response to others being rude or just out right bigots or racists. Stating the truth about bigots and racists is not rude, it is just honesty. Honesty is civility. 

I have made a strong effort to avoid the fools.  Blocking people who are repeatedly acting horribly on Social Media is not only a great choice, it is a quick one.  Don't feed the trolls, just block them.  The bots are always easy for people to block, but there are real people who are complete assholes online. I mean assholes.  There is no reason to engage with them, they only want your attention.  Life is short and people online who only detract from your life do not need to be part of it. 

Work to create a more Drama Free Zone in Cincinnati.  We need more effort to build a better local community.  I know how it could be done and so do most people, but we just don't seem to be able to connect in a world filled with easy ways to communicate. That conflictive puzzle will persist.

Cincinnati City Council Election September 2023 Update

Tumble weeds are traveling across the pollical landscape in the 2023 Cincinnati City Council race. There is nearly no campaigning going on. With only ten candidates that is not a surprise. Audricia Brooks did not, after final review by the Hamilton County Board of Elections, have enough signatures on her petitions. That leaves only endorsed candidates running, with only one non incumbent. The race is down to two questions:

1. Will Liz Keating get a support boost and finish higher and safer in the race, or will she be back competing for last place again like she did in 2021.
2. Will Albi or Walsh fair better than any of the seven previously elected candidates?

At this point, I would say with the expected high turnout amongst Democrats in November for the various ballot issues, I see Liz Keating's prospects of pushing higher up the rankings to be low.  That means to me the only action will be for the last two spots among Keating, Wasl, or Albi.  Those three need to campaigning.  Keating has a funding advantage and if she targets Republicans and Moderates, she might have enough to defeat the Democratic Party Lists.

With no big change possible on City Council, this means that only about a couple dozen people will be paying much attention to the council race.  The other ballot issues will take all of the media attention, so other then election night, I don't think much more will be published, unless a candidate tries to gain attention by creating controversy.

There is nothing wrong with a quiet election.  I think it is actually quite refreshing. There is a chance that these ten candidates could wage a full on retail election, with direct door to door or event connection.

The City, County and State ballot issues will be drawing the attention and generating the turnout, so the political parties will be spending there and not on the City Council race.  I fully expect all statewide issues to be nasty campaigns. The religious right is not against lying and cheating, so I expect we shall see a lot of that. I dread the lies, but that is politics now, especially those out to influence the ignorant. The electorate is made up of so much ignorance that it can be far too exploited.  It is what will doom Democracy.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Cincinnati City Council Election August 2023 Update

There are 11 candidates for the 2023 Cincinnati City Council election. The August 24th deadline to turn in petitions came and went this week and no additional candidates turned any in.  That is the smallest number of candidates in decades, at least since 1989 and likely longer ago. There are nine Democrats, one Republican, and one Independent candidate running. Charter has yet to officially announce any cross endorsements they may be doing this year, but they would logically repeat the one candidate in this race who was cross endorsed in 2021, Republican Liz Keating.

One candidate, Richardo Hayward, turned in petitions, but had an insufficient number of valid signatures to qualify. He could still appeal this decision if he was close to the 500 signatures needed, but he likely was not close enough to find any variance to make up the difference.

This will be an election with both a foregone conclusion for a Democratic victory and a real race for the last two seats on council.  The race should come down to Republican Liz Keating, Seth Walsh, and Ann Albi.  Audricia Brooks is a new candidate and no indication of any support, but with the lack of names on the ballot, she has a chance to win, depending on who votes and how they vote. There are multiple scenarios that have more than a minimal possibility to occur.  I've yet to game all of them out, but those variables are the only element of the City Council Race that are in question.  The ballot issues pending are a very different story.  I expect those races, especially the Railroad issue, to have more contention and questions on the outcome.

Candidates

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*‡
Reggie Harris (D)*‡
Meeka Owens (D)*‡
Victoria Parks (D)*‡
Jeff Cramerding (D)*‡
Mark Jeffreys (D)*‡
Scotty Johnson (D)*‡
Liz Keating (R,C)*‡
Seth Walsh (D)*‡
Anna Albi (D)‡
Audricia Brooks (I)‡

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates. This list may not last as Twitter turns into a chaotic mess and not a valued website. A future update to the Blog may be a either a separate page with additional links to social media of the candidates or an update to the listing above. Stay tuned for that.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.