Historical Data from Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017

 Historical data from the Cincinnati Council Elections from 1991 through 2017.

The turnout has been at extremely low levels in 2013 and 2017.  The 2017 number is somewhat misleading with the increase in registered voters coming from the 2016 Presidential Election. We see a turnout in direct numbers increasing by 7.4% from 2013 to 2017.

Early reports from BOE indicates that turnout will be in the 30% to 35% range for the county.  That likely puts it on the lower end of that for the City, so it would be in line with recent elections.  One known point, the number of registered voters in 2021 is about 216,186, so less than 2017, but fairly comparable.

The most interesting facts:

1. The average number of votes cast per ballot have historically been relatively consistent around 6.
2. The top winning nine candidates have received at least 57% of all votes.

2021 Cincinnati City Council Election Non-Prediction Predictions

 I have no definitive knowledge of who will be the top nine vote getters on November 2nd.  I have no polling data.  I not aware of any polls having been conducted on the council race.  In conclusion, no one knows who is going to win and if you clicked on this article in the hopes of knowing that, well you are a fool. (Kidding, on the square)

That being said...I've done some analysis.  I compiled lots of data.  I've got the results of 2017 council and mayoral election.  I have the 2020 election results.  I have the 2020 census data compiled by voting precinct. I have a ton of information about the 35 candidates on the ballot.  I've reviewed all of that I have some thoughts on who likely will get elected to the Cincinnati City Council.

Before I get to that, I want to outline the core elements of the Cincinnati electorate, from perspective. I also will describe some of the key variables that will determine the winners and what are likely scenarios for who gets on council.

Cincinnati Voting Blocks
First off, what are the voting blocks in Cincinnati?  Oh, what do I mean by a voting block, you ask?  Well, I define a voting block as a group or classification of voters that have common characteristics that provide a referential means to identify political philosophy, Party, race, identity, or other views that would indicate how they would vote.  This is absolutely a generalization about people.  Without polling data that includes self assigned characteristics, there is no other way than to generalize.  I am trying to do that based on the data I have, the voting history of the City by precinct, and my experience in covering/observing Cincinnati elections. 

These groups are not monolithic. In a council race, some Republicans can and will vote for a Democrat and some Democrats will vote for a Republican.  For parties with more options, that is less common than parties with a short ticket. All in all this is kind of messy, but there is a means to judge who each group will support.

What that leaves are the following general voting blocks of voters. 

1. Black Democrats - They will support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support black candidates more than white candidates? Yes, some. 
2. White Democrats - They will also support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support white candidates more than black candidates? Yes, some.
3. Moderates - To poorly use a Ghostbusters reference: this group likes to cross the streams. They will support some Democrats, some in Charter, some Republicans, and even Independents. They tend to support those who are bit more supportive of business and the police, but don’t like the extremes.
4. Republicans - I've segmented out the Trumpists from this block as a significant number of Republicans in the City did not vote for Trump. The lines between some in this group and the Trumpists are blurry on most policy.
5. Trumpists - This is a new block that is not large, but I've made distinct from Republicans because of what I see a degree of a split in the Republican Party, but also because of their voting variation.  These are the hard right Republicans.
6. Black Conservatives - For much of the 21st Century I would call this the Winburn/Smitherman vote. They are going to support some Democrats and Charterites too.
7. Progressives - This group has two components: Those to the left in the Democratic Parry and Leftists outside the Democratic Party. This group will vote for some Democrats and progressive Independents.

I assign no totals to these blocks, but on some levels they can be derived.  There are way more Democrats in the City of Cincinnati than Republicans.  There are not as many Progressives than some Progressives think there are.  Most candidates need support in more than one of these blocks to break into the top nine.  Sometimes they need three blocks to win.  It all depends on who votes.

Variables
So many things can change an election.  There can be one thing and there can be many things.  They can be conflicting and cancel each other out.  Some of them can be appear to be insignificant, but can make or break a candidates.  Some of these variables happen on election day and some are part of the campaign. These are not all of the possible variables, but they are what I think we can observe and evaluate.

1. Overall Turnout - Candidates generally can't do much about this.  This relies on three things: 1) how easy it is to vote, 2) how well the Parties or other significant GOTV efforts worked, and 3) the weather.
2. Voting Block Turnout - This is something candidates can have an impact on.  Consider this getting our your base, but in this type of an at large election other attributes can help.  Issues and topics can drive out one block and keep another at home.  If there are blocks tied to certain neighborhoods or parts of the City, those groups could see a serge in turnout if something that year matters.  
3. Party Endorsement - This year may be a test for this idea, but getting a major party endorsement has nearly been a requirement to get elected to Cincinnati City Council  The value of the endorsement has structural advantages to the campaign in terms of resources, but this is as good as any signal for a majority of voters to understand a candidate's political views and their seriousness.
4. Name Recognition - Incumbency is one version, being a prior elected official is another. Being well known helps as well. Having a well known last name does not hurt either.
5. Fund Raising- Money matters. 
6. Campaign Communications - This has several parts, but the core types are mailers, TV/radio ads, web ads, phone banking, and personal canvassing.  These largely rely on fundraising, but the messages used are also very  important. Negative campaigning is not very effective for one candidate to attack another. This hasn’t been seen so far in the council race. Getting outside groups to do it, that is more common, but how effective it is not a proven concept.
7. Positions on policy or political philosophy - This can matter in some elections, but in reality, not as much as people think. Just because a candidate is for or against an policy is not enough, if that they can effectively communicate those ideas, they will get no where.

These variables at this point are mostly played out. You can get some turnout changes at this point, but most of the rest of these have occurred.

Turnout
The only measurement of Turnout we can see is with early and absentee voting.  As of the end of last week, turnout is up significantly in comparison to turnout in 2017 at the last City Election.  With COVID-19's impact on early/absentee voting, this increase may be far less of a indication of higher turnout and instead part of the shift of votes that would have been cast on Election Day in person.  In comparison to the terrible turnout in 2017, I would predict that 2021 will exceed the 29% by a few percentage points at least. Not all of the increase is COVID related.

Scenarios
Who is going to have power on council?  That is the question that really matters.  That is also a question that could change depending on who gets electected.  Party affiliation is not a guarantee of unity.  Here are the likely possible combinations of who gets power.

1. Democrats in Strong Control with 6 or 7 seats, 2-3 seats split between GOP/Charter - This would be considered a conventional wisdom outcome.  Many see this as the likely situation (some may call it inevitable.) A related version of this scenario would have 1 of GOP/Charter group go to an Independent Progressive Candidate. This is an example where the variable voting block turnout would come into play on the election.
2. Democrats in Control with 5 seats - here you could see Dems with control, but the other 4 seats in all sort of combinations.  Turnout would drive the power of the rest, a surge for the GOP/Charter or a mix in of Charter/Independents could fill in numbers.  Dems would control and on many issue would have as much power as a 6 or 7 seat majority since most of the Charter or Independent candidates are Democrats.
3. Charter/GOP in Control - This is the hope of the GOP.  They would need to get at least three to make this happen, and hope pro-business Charterites want to work together.
4. No Dominant Party in Control -  This split could be amongst the three parties.  This could also be a mix of non-party endorsed.  This is also not that likely, but many candidates and their follows love to dream about it.

Candidate Groupings
I don’t know who is going to win, but I believe I have grouped together all of the candidates into a group that represents my opinion on their chances to win the 2021 City Council Election. I don’t know vote counts, so I really can’t rank the order of finish. With the number of candidates and a lower than normal sense of incumbency, the spread of votes could be tighter, making the race closer to get into the top nine. 

Likely to Win-They should win.

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney
Greg Landsman

Strong Chance - The other 7 slots should come from this group, but it is not guaranteed.

Jeff Cramerding
Kevin Flynn
Steve Goodin
Reggie Harris
Mark Jeffreys

Scotty Johnson
Liz Keating
Meeka Owens
Victoria Parks
Jim Tarbell

Possible - Depending turnout and the mood of the voter, someone in this group could win, but likely no more than one or two could slip into the top 9 and bump 1 or 2 of those with a strong chance out. Some of those in this group could also fall even lower.

Michelle Dillingham
Jackie Frondorf
Galen G. Gordon
Phillip O'Neal
Betsy Sundermann
John Williams
Tom Brinkman
Jamie Castle
Bill Frost
Brian Garry
Kurt Grossman
Evan C. Holt

Not Going to Win  - The hurdles are just too high to overcome the groups above.

Jalen Alford
LaKeisha Cook
Rob Harris
K. A. Heard
Nick Jabin
Andrew Kennedy
John Maher
Peterson W. Mingo
TeAirea R. Powell
Logan-Peter Simmering
Stacey Smith

I look forward to following turnout during the day on Election Day and will be on Twitter @cincyblog on election night.

Great Cincinnati City Council 2021 Candidates Guide From WVXU

If you are looking for a great guide on all of the candidates for Cincinnati City Council, then look no further than the guide from WVXU Cincinnati's local NPR radio station.

Will Cincinnati Republicans Endorse for Cincinnati Council?

 It is the end of June and local Republicans still appear to be living in a Trumpist haze.  The HamCoGOP Twitter account is a step away from spouting Qanon dogma or MyPillow religious proclamations.  Alex Triantafilou, Chairperson of the Hamilton County Republican Party, has long wanted to mount a take over of the City.  The rest of his party leadership prefers to take actions that hurt the City of Cincinnati and see its demise. None of them seem to be doing much to support enough candidates to actually to do much on council.

For the the last few years their efforts have, not surprisingly, been to undemocratically seize control of City Council through the courts. This effort to use the courts by Republican hack lawyers to sue their way back onto council came to halt recently when a commission appointed by the Ohio Supreme Court refused to Suspend Wendell Young. They were able to swing one additional council for a Republican, but couldn't get another one.

That failure appears to have taken the wind out of the sails of the Republicans. They were running a campaign against "corruption" which Republicans have done far more in the state than any Democrat could ever do (see Larry Householder.) None-the-less their presumptive candidates and allies have pushed charter amendments and are pushing more to tie the hands of any elected council member who is not rich or a practicing lawyer from being able to serve.  Call it yet another anti-democracy effort by Republicans to limit the rights of the masses and empower the Republicans.

All of this still leaves a Cincinnati City Council election ahead and time is running out.  At this point there are only three candidates the GOP likely will endorse, Sundermann, Keating, and Goodin.  None of them have been elected before, but are serving as council members.  That means they are vulnerable.  We've not had a city election since 2017 and Democrats elected six members to Council. The City has become more Democratic since then.  The manufactured scandals are the only thing working in the Republicans favor and unless they get more candidates, they are not going to have a governing majority to make it worth anything.

The Charter Committee stands to have more influence on City Council than the Republican Party after this election.  Two Charter endorsees, Goodin and Keating, are Republicans and presumed to get cross endorsements.  Their tenure so far has been very much as Charter Republicans, which would be considered a Moderate Republican.  Moderates in the GOP are an endangered species.  On the other hand, Sundermann has acted like a typical Conservative and even though she's not pushed the envelope of right wing nuttiness that has taken over her party.  She tows the GOP line, but has kept the Trump worship under wraps.

I would propose the best thing the Republicans could do for Goodin and Keating would be to refuse to endorse them for Council and only endorse Sundermann.  That would give them attention and make them independent from the GOP and allow them to be Charterites.  At the same time, both would have no problem getting the 4th Street business community to donate to them, which in the City is the ONLY reason a candidate would want the Republican endorsement.

There is still time for other candidates to get in the race and there are other candidates who have taken out petitions and declared themselves as candidates who are Republicans.  Those out there now, like Linda Matthews don't have much of a campaign going and at this point that means they are not raising any money to hire staff.  That means they are not viable and likely not going to get an endorsement, unless the GOP wants to try and save face.

There are a few names that could get in the race at this late point, but they are smart enough to know that the GOP brand in the City is about as damaged as it could be and this year it is not going to get any better. There is not much money up for grabs from the Suburbs to change the city.  The Hamilton County Suburbs are not as fertile ground as they were for the GOP.  The exurbs outside the County are where they have to go and the Exurban GOP donor appears to be stuck in Trumpism. A good Trumpist wants cities to be destroyed, so that leads them into a bit of conundrum.

I would expect something from Republicans in the form of an endorsement slate soon, so the candidates can get some fundraiser mailings out to GOP lists.  The GOP announcement then gives the Cincinnati FOP the ability to endorse, as they don't make endorsements without knowing who the GOP is pushing.  These groups work together on City Politics 98% of the time.  The rest of the GOP leaning groups will following along too, but there may be less this year, as they all are so far down the Trump rabbit hole that if you are not 100% loyal to Trump, you can't be a Republican.  I hope they keep this idea going.  Purity is the downfall of a political effort and the Republican Party needs to go the way of the Dodo.

June Cincinnati City Council Candidate Update

The Cincinnati City Council election race is starting to make noise. Some of that noise is a personification of the X-Brood (Cicadas.)  There are 90 people who on paper at least are still in the race, but just over half of those appear to be like an empty carcass.  By my count there are 43 campaigns still with an indication of life.

The Charter Committee and the Democratic Party have issued their endorsements.  The manufactured drama the process has spawned has been mostly a waste of time. Conservatives/Moderates baulked over the idea of the Dems determining they would not cross endorse candidates. The hot air created on that front would have been useful if a large balloon was available. The nerve of Democrats wanting to run an organized campaign that will try to win as many seats for their party. Who would want to do such a thing?

As for the so called 'Progressives' in(and circling outside) the Democratic Party, the angst was thick like a beef stew that none of them would eat. They publicly complained about the process, the first sign that they don't want the Democratic Party to win a majority of seats on council, instead they want their 'faction' to gain power in the local party.  It is almost like none of them pay attention to actual politics and instead just read columns from Huff Post, Nation, and the Intercept.  There are far too many so called 'Progressives' who seem to want to wage a war of purity instead of winning elections.  If you are not in 100% agreement with their policy issue of the day, they will seek to destroy you and run you out of town on a Twitter rail. Losing the Issue 3 election appears to have not provided them with a wake up call to reality.  We don't live in New York's 14th district.  Most of the world is not like the NY-14 and most certainly most of Cincinnati is not like it.  Those who didn't learn back in May will learn it in November.

As for the Republicans, they are/were either working on some big plan or their party is in far more internal turmoil locally than I thought. I guess when the national leader of your party orchestrates an Insurrection, you can't get yourself as motivated as your should. It is almost the end of June and they have not announced their endorsements yet. That is not a good sign.  I've listed people below with the Republican "R" after their name,  but that is the affiliation from their voter registration, nothing more.  I can only speculate that the Party's plan was to get Wendell Young suspended from council and have faithful Ted Winkler appoint another loyal Republican to council.  That effort appears to have fallen flat on its face. I guess that fizzled like attempted fascist coup on January 6th.

Other than the three Republicans currently serving on council there are not any candidates with a campaign in motion.  There are a few placeholders with Facebook pages, but for a Republican, they need to be credible and raising money.  Credibility for a Republican is not from an amature hour Facebook page with a link to a donation page.  The GOP can't field a true fire breather for office in the City.  Sundermann is as close as they can get, it would appear, and she is by far the most vulnerable sitting member of council.  There just may not be anyone else willing to run without the perception of incumbency. None of the three were elected to office, so calling them an incumbent requires a set of rosey glasses.  That leaves the Republicans in the same place they have been most of the City elections this Century, a minority party.  Hell, it is possible that they are the third party or not have anyone on council at all. Their last hurrah in the city could have been a feeble attempt to abuse power by appointing their way to a majority.  That fits the GOP motif.

For the Council Candidate Update, I should  have more groups listed with their endorsements.  I also plan to start arranging candidates into tiers.   Each tier would indicate my opinion on their chances.  There will be no polling data for me to use. I'll just be looking at various factors to judge their candidacy and campaign and viability.  This will lean towards art over science, but won't be void of history or logic. I am sure I'll piss off someone, but that is not new.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman * (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Betsy Sundermann * (R)

Temporary Replacements to Council
Steve Goodin (R,C)
Liz Keating (R,C)

Announced Candidates
Robert Adler (I)
Jalen Alford (D)
Key Beck (I)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Jamie Castle (D)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Kevin Flynn (I)
Jackie Frondorf (C)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Galen Gordon (C)
Terence Gragston (I)
Kurt Grossman (D)
Cam Hardy (C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Rob Harris (D)
K. Heard (G)
Chris Hikel (I)
Evan Holt (DSA)
Nick Jabin (I)
Mark Jeffreys (D)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Andrew Kennedy (I)
Rayshon Mack (R)
John Maher (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Natasha Mitchell (R)
J. Nickels (I)
Phillip O'Neal (D)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Logan-Peter Simmering (G)
Stacey Smith (D)
James Tarbell (C)
Dadrien Washington (I)
John Williams (D)

Inactive Announced Candidates
Britton Carter (D)
Gary Favors (R)
Nora Hartsock (I)
Dale Mallory (D)
Nicole McWhorter (D)
Victor Phillips (I)
Gregory Schill (R)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Individuals Who Have Taken Out Petitions to Run, but Appear to Be Inactive
Bilal Ahmad (I)
William Andrews (I)
Aaryn Barnes (I)
David Booker (I)
Melinda Brown (I)
Darius Clay (I)
John Clifton (I)
Ali Coulibaly (I)
Zacheriah Davis (I)
Sean Fausto (R)
Robert Foster (I)
Randy Freking (I)
Martha Good (I)
Brent Gray (I)
Michael Haithcoat (R)
Bem Itiavkase (I)
Aprina Johnson (I)
Eric Knapp (I)
Joe McCloud (I)
Deborah Metz (I)
Robert Moore (I)
William Moore (I)
Jim Neil (I)
TeAirea Powell (I)
Thomas Price (R)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Isaiah Robinson (I)
Morleen Rouse (I)
Martin Rutland (I)
Antonio Sanders (I)
Larry Showes (I)
Demetrius Stanton (I)
Andrew Sweeny (R)
Edith Thrower (R)
David Walker (I)
Damon Watkins (I)
Laura Ann Weaver (D)
Brandie Woods (I)
Nathaniyah Yisrael (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Democrats Not Endorsing Michelle Dillingham Should Not Be a Shock to Anyone

The Cincinnati Democratic Committee has announced their preliminary slate of endorsements for Cincinnati City Council.  One name was "snubbed." This list is not final and could be changed by the committee as a whole, but they shouldn't do that and no one should be shocked. Dillingham has demonstrated she is not inclined to be a team player. Her political positions have become increasingly leftist, only appealing to a smaller and uncompromising group. She would be a risk to hurt the rest of team more than help them. The only upside is past performance.

The angst voiced by some leftist Cincinnati Twitter users is expected, but any objective observer could see this play coming.  There is some risk to it.  There could be a revolt, but pissing off a bunch of leftists who were not going to vote for the full Democratic slate of nine candidates is not going to affect their election chances.

Leftist activists have been mostly pushing either a short ticket voting strategy or just voting for a list of long shots and Dillingham.  What I think is driving the angst is that many thought she would win with an endorsement. She would be the leftist "voice" on council. I think with a Dem endorsement she would likely win.  Without the Dem endorsement, it will be much more difficult.  If she starts running against the Democratic Party or other candidates, she won't help her chances much. If she runs as the Leftist candidate, she won't help herself much, either.

If Leftists did not grasp how the Issue 3 vote went or how the 2020 election went for leftist views, then I don't see how they can be anything other than a loud fringe group, bent on destruction as much has their right wing opposites, willing to bring down everyone for a fantasy.

What is the State of the Cincinnati Mayoral Race?

May 4th is the date of the 2021 Mayoral Primary Election and we are less than one month away. I have no idea who is going to win or come in second, so don't expect any big predictions.  The top two vote getters make it to the General Election in November.  Six candidates are on the ballot for the primary and three of them are experienced elected officials.  The other three are not. That sums things up, pretty much.  This has been a damn quiet campaign thus far.  Still time for tricks, but with no Cranley in the race, I don't expect too much dirty campaigning.

This is the 20th anniversary, of sorts, of the first Mayoral Primary enacted after a City Charter Amendment re-establishing the direct election for the Mayor of Cincinnati. Back in 2001 the primary was held in September, unlike 2021.  The primary in 2001 was in fact held on 09/11/2001.  For some that date may ring a bell.  I lived in Mt. Washington at the time and my voting location was at the Mt. Washington United Methodist Church.  I left work early that day, around 4:45 or so.  I wasn't getting anything done, so I figured I would go vote.  I figure few others would do the same as many had other things on their mind. After driving from Downtown, I got there a little past 5 PM.  There was no line and the poll workers were quiet.  I asked how many had voted and they told me about 25 that day so far.  I nodded in appreciate for information, took my ballot and voted.  Not that many people voted that day, but I really don't blame anyone, it was 9/11.

Jump forward to May of 2017 and we are in the 4th year of John Cranley's terrible reign as Mayor, the man who has the vision of a suburbanite and vindictiveness of a spoiled brat whose parents didn't get him a purple pony.  The Mayoral Primary that year was in May, as another Charter Amendment moved it  to fit with the normal primary timing in Ohio.  May of 2017 was a normal day, nothing else to drive turnout way down or way up.  What we got was a smaller turnout than on 9/11. Our City's attention was clear to focus on the primary, but the turnout tanked.

A 4.25% LOWER turnout than on 9/11. Our City is that apathetic that we could not match 9/11.  Some I am sure will claim that patriotic fervor caught some, including myself, but no that's not valid.  Voting in the City has dropped massively over the last 20 years and even more so on these Mayoral Primary days.  We are choosing not to vote in massive numbers and it is a shame.  The numbers were better in the General Elections both years, but still not good.  Tens of thousands of Registered Voters who vote in Presidential Elections don't bother to vote in local elections, even in the local General Elections.  I know some apologists will point to voter suppression, but these are people who can and do vote, just not for local races.  They are choose not to vote.  This is not one party, this is a problem in every precinct. Calling this a primary may contribute to problem, as those who refuse to participate in the full on partisan primaries, but that is not much of an excuse.  People just feed on their ignorance.  They don't bother knowing details about national politics, but so many are even more foolish when they don't have a clue about local elections which they could have a much more direct impact on their lives.

People moan and complain about the voting system we have and think if we just had magic beans in the form of another voting system things would improve.  What those folks don't tell you is that their goals are more about getting other candidates or other political parties into office, not for getting higher turnout.  What we need now is for people to vote and for people to be less cynical and more pragmatic.  The problem is so many who voice opinions today do so in a method that is either at the extremes or one based on "Total Politics" a concept where purity is a requirement and any derivation from their dogma means you are the enemy and part of the problem. The ideas comes from "Total War" which was a concept used during WWII that had nations 100% at war with other nations, making anything and everything as part of the war effort and far game to the conflict and anything short of full destruction of the enemy is seen as failure.

I am not sure which, if any, of the candidates on the primary ballot think like that, even slightly.  I've not seen them do so yet.  I've seen some Council Candidates do that on Social Media in what seemed like a bad AOC or Bernie imitation/homage skip at the Cincy chapter DSA talent show. 

The Mayor's race has been very tame thus far.  The only item that has gotten notice is the very bad Issue 3 Charter Amendment on the ballot at the same time as the Primary.  That Issue may drive turnout.  Whether it drives it out significantly or just marginally is the question. Significant turnout has two directions that could affect things. If No voters come out, that could benefit some candidates, like David Mann, as Republicans would be considered more likely No on Issue 3 voters and would take Mann as the least worst candidate of those with a better than average change to get the top two positions.  Thomas and Pureval could get a boost from a No surge, as both are against the Issue.

The other possible turnout increase would be for Yes voters, which might help some of the other three candidates who have a mix of support and/or sympathy to the issue, which if high enough could put them in the number two spot.  While an increase for Yes voters could help the Issue pass, it would in my view need to be significant to help the three new candidates win.

Reports indicates that Aftab Pureval has the lead in the limited polling done so far.  It would be a big surprise not to see him in the top two.  The other spot is likely to be either David Mann or Cecil Thomas, but low turnout elections are wild cards. Getting your base to the polls is the key and that takes an organization.  I don't know who has that working on all cylinders right now and there is no time to start from scratch, so we'll who makes the cut.

For your review: The Candidates with links to their campaign websites:

Gavi Begtrup
David Mann
Herman J. Najoli
Raffel Prophett
Aftab Pureval
Cecil Thomas