The Phony Coney: Miller's Not Home?

The Phony Coney brings to light an important item that allegedly was overlooked by Mark Miller before filing his affidavit in an attempt to smear the Mayor. The question is out there: Where does Mark Miller actually live? Does he even know? Can we trust anything he says if he can't get his address correct?

Council: Handicapping the Race

Predicting who will win City Council is both easy and very difficult. It is easy to get those who are locks to win and likely to win. After that, it is all open ended. It is a fool's errand to try and predict the actual order of finish to any level of accuracy, so don't look for that here. What I have done, instead, is create tiers and grouped candidates based on their likelihood of being in the top nine. Here is my take on the race, two weeks out. Each group is in alphabetical order.

A Lock to Win:
Roxanne Qualls

Likely to Win:
Chris Bortz
Laketa Cole
Leslie Ghiz
Cecil Thomas

In the Mix:
Jeff Berding
Kevin Flynn
Greg Harris
Chris Monzel
Laure Quinlivan
Bernadette Watson
Charlie Winburn


Strong Finish, But Out of the Money:
Tony Fischer
Nickolas Hollan

The Rest:
Anitra Brockman
Amy Murray
LaMarque Ward
Wendell Young
George Zamary


As far as order goes, as I mentioned, there is no way to know. I would say anyone not in the mix could be as high as 13 or 12. A good measure of a candidate that does not win is their placement. If you get anywhere from 10th to 13th, you had a good run and are a contender for 2011.

There are of course two weeks to go, so anything could happen, but usually doesn't.

Minor note: I will go out on a limb here and say the Mayor Mallory will be reelected. The only speculation will be what percentage Wenstrup has to reach in order for Alex Triantafilou to claim the GOP is on the rise in the City. I would suggest that anything less than 50.000001% of the vote would be a sign that the GOP is not on the rise in Cincinnati.

Issue Three Narrowly Ahead in Poll

In a Poll of 800 likely Ohio voters 48% favor Issue Three, 44 Oppose, with a margin of error at 3.5%. This vote is going to be close.

A Question For the Candidates

Had I been at the mayor's debate last week, I'd have asked the following:

Given the choice between laying off fifty police officers, closing half the city's pools, closing some or all of the city's health clinics, or decreasing the frequency of trash collection, which would you choose?

Before you all flay me in the comments: no, I have no idea whether these are actually fiscal equivalents. But if being a reporter covering politics were my full-time job, I'd figure out the equivalents and ask the question with the correct numbers.

Can we "cut our way to prosperity?" Of course not. But absent a massive tax increase, some cuts are inevitable in the 2010 budget. And no one, so far, has told us what they'll cut.

And no, I'm not going to suggest an answer to that question myself.

Random Sports Thought

It just occurred to me that this was a pretty good weekend for former Cincinnati athletes.

Former Red Jerry Hairston scored the game-winning run (after getting on base by hitting a single) in the bottom of the 13th inning, giving the Yankees a 2-0 edge in the ALCS.

And former Bengal Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Buffalo Bills to an overtime victory (albeit an ugly one) over the New York Jets.

New Local Political Blog: Plum Street Studios

E. Gooding has a new blog called Plum Street Studios and has a good post tearing apart the Enquirer's Council Endorsements.

The Enquirer Splits the Baby into Fourths, Kinda

When reading the Enquirer's list of endorsements for city council a mighty big correction needs to be made. Jeff Berding does not deserve the "D" next to his name. It is obvious they did this on purpose and refuse to acknowledge the rebuke Berding got from the local Democrats who revoked his endorsement. So, they are knowingly putting out false information. I guess Berding needs every ounce of help he can get, and fooling some voters into thinking he has the backing of the Democrats just may be another way the Enquirer can help.

Here is the full slate of Enquirer Endorsements:
Jeff Berding
Roxanne Qualls
Chris Bortz
Leslie Ghiz
Nicholas Hollan
Cecil Thomas
Kevin Flynn
Amy Murrary
Charlie Winburn

Yes, you read the last name correctly, Charlie Winburn. Did the Enquirer political writers push for this because they want the man in office because he will produce good quotes? He will add nothing if elected and will in fact be a force for retreat and destruction. Winburn is off the deep-end and will damage the city if elected.

I will say I am pleased to see two names on this lsit: Nicholas Hollan and Kevin Flynn. Both are good candidates that need help to win, but are people I want to see in future elections.

The fourths I mentioned in the the title reference how politically wide the Enquirer is going. They have three Republicans, two Dems, three Charterites, and one Independent. So, four parts, but not equal. There are three Women and two African-Americans. Five incumbents, three new challengers, one former council-member. With the exception of Winburn, this slate does average out in the middle, where most of the candidates may lean to the left or right, they are mostly moderate or mainstream on their political side of the spectrum. The Enquirer has long been called a Conservative Newspaper, and they are, on a national level, but with this slate, they are trying to appeal to everyone. That leads to something close to a big bowl of goulash, this bowl is a bit bland, without much spicy difference.

With this slate the Enquirer is trying to present a unifying team. The problem is that with candidates like Berding, Ghiz, and Winburn you are going to maintain the drama the Enquirer seems to loathe. Many, mostly on the right, blame this Summer's city budget circus on the "Majority Five," but the circus part was created, totally, by Ghiz, Berding, Monzel, and the FOP leadership out to save the raises of senior police officers. The City could have gotten the concessions at worst at the same point in time it actually happened, minus the circus, but instead Ghiz, Berding, and Monzel wanted to score political points and gain attention. It is too bad the Enquirer has rewarded two of the three for their theatrics with an endorsement.

This year's council race is going to be interesting for many reasons, but from an analytical perspective the area I am paying the most attention too is the power of the Republican/Conservative votes in the city. What good will the FOP, POWR PAC, and Enquirer endorsements do? What good does going on WLW's Bill Cunningham show actually do for a candidate in the City? Bottom line, did the trends of 2008 really come true, are we more of a liberal City/County? That will not become clear until the detailed results are reported after the election, but the speculation on that is already being tested.