Cranley's Win Based on Strong Republican Turnout

The turnout battle in the 2013 Cincinnati City Elections was won handily by the Republicans. 69.39% of City Republicans came out to vote as opposed to 52.45% of Dems. A pathic 12.26% of non-affiliated voters bothered to come out on election day. These numbers are based on the Hamilton County Voter listing as of 11-29-2013. Here are the totals:

	Registered Voters	Votes Cast	Turnout
Democratic	59,119	31,007	52.45%
Republican	19,235	13,348	69.39%
Non-Affiliated	124,003	15,208	12.26%
Total	202,357	59,563	29.43%

Party ID listed about is based on the historical primary voting and third parties were combined with Parties that are "closer" to it's leanings.  Third party numbers are not significant.

That turnout becomes clearer by comparing his election in 2013, to the Joe Deters vs. Janaya Trotter race in 2012.  Within the City, Trotter trounced Deters 65% to 34%, but of the 52 precincts Deters won in the city, Cranley won 51 of them.  In the one precinct he didn't win, Cranley only lost by 14 votes.

Cranley's win rested on being the "wink candidate" for the GOP, where they gave him as much private support possible, but not much public support to allow Cranley to placate enough of Dems and non-affiliated voters to win.  With enough anger pent up on the Parking Plan, Cranley got his Conservative voting groups to all vote for him and lucked out with more Dems staying home on election day.

It is clear that Cranley should never forget, or delude himself otherwise, that he won with GOP support.  Without it, he would have lost.

Cranley is Delusional on Political Situation

John Cranley appears to think there are only a handful of neighborhoods that count in Cincinnati. WCPO reported the following:

"Streetcar supporters have criticized Cranley for saying Cincinnati is more politically united than ever before.

But the mayor defended his comments. “Look at Bond Hill, look at Mount Washington, look at Price Hill, Mount Lookout, Hyde Park,” Cranley said. “In all the council races I was in, those neighborhoods didn’t agree on who should be mayor. This year, all of those neighborhoods were united together – not only in electing me but in electing a majority of council."

So, four solid Republican neighborhoods and Smitherman/Winburn's core neighborhood constitute Cranley's world of what matters to him, at least politically. Every place else doesn't rate in his mind and are all that matters to his sense of 'unity.'

Cranley needs to know that in Ward Seven, which includes Bond Hill, Flynn and Murry finished 17th and 18th place respectively and Malone and White finished in the top nine.  How is that unified with the rest Republican strongholds he cherished?

Cranley's dug himself a big hole and I fear he will think he's dug himself out, but really will be in a Smithermanesque alternate universe, one where truth isn't important. We don't live in Bizarro Cincinnati, we live in the real Cincinnati. Cranley needs to find the reality based Cincinnati or he will find the job of being Mayor even more difficult than it already is.

Cranley Shows Republican Stripes in Committee Chair Appointments

I would love to hear how alleged Democrat John Cranley and his supporters are spinning Cranley's major insult to local Democrats with only four of nine committee chairs going to Dems and a total shut out of the most important Finance and Public Safety chairs. Those two chairs went to a Republican and a Tea Party crazy person. Yes, Charlie Winburn will run the Finance Committee and a guy who accused another former Council Member of being  CIA plant will oversee the Public Safety Committee.

No, we are not living in a Bizzaro world, but it really feels like it.

I hope Tim Burke took note, but I don't suppose he cares much. Instead, I really hope Democratic party activists take notice. Cranley is out to screw over the Dems and candidates they might seek to run for other offices.

His petty attack earlier this week on PG Sittenfeld played right into the long term hands of the GOP. It was as if he was paying back obligations to the GOP. It was just like that, as a matter of fact, so I wonder what he got from them.... If you have to wonder about that, you haven't been paying attention.

Will Someone Get Cranley and Kincaid a Copy of the City Charter?

When I read this blog post it gave me a really distinct impression: either Cranley is more ignorant than I think he is, or he's hired a staffer who is far more ignorant than he should be at this point. This gem is the example:

Jay Kincaid, Cranley’s campaign chief who’s moving to City Hall with him, said Monday they’d have to look into whether they technically needed a vote or if Cranley could just halt the work himself.

In case Kincaid hasn't already, I suggest he read Section III of the City Charter.  The Mayor doesn't have the authority to overturn an enacted ordinance.

In other words, he really doesn't have a much power as people think he does.

The Power is vested in the City Council and to a lesser degree the City Manager.  The Mayor can't really do a whole hell of a lot without Council.  His power is more in blocking Council actions via the veto or controlling what they can vote on.

Kincaid might brush up on his reading pretty quickly.

Republicans Won the Election With Their Boy Cranley

The Republicans in the form of their various factions (COAST, Tea Party, Smithermanites) truly had a huge victory Tuesday night mostly thanks to John Cranley, their candidate for Mayor.  Here's how Cranley won.

1. Cranley got a shit ton of GOP Money.  Once the final filings for this race are filed, we'll get exact numbers, but one estimate put around 80% of his funding being from GOP or conservative sources.
2. The anti-Downtown campaign got the GOP voters out in full force.
3. Cranley got the vast majority of the GOP Vote.
4. Cranley successfully split the Democratic Party, to the cheers of the GOP.
5. Most importantly, the Democratic vote stayed home.  That I blame on the Democratic Party and Tim Burke.  It was like he wanted Cranley to win...

So all in all, Cranley selling his soul to the Republican successfully got him to be the next Mayor.  Now, how will he govern?  I will predict he will accomplish nothing, because he has plans to do nothing.  He will talk a big talk about the Pension Plan, but he can't do anything but kick the can down the road, something he did before to the city budget, which is one the of the big reason we have and underfunded pension plan in the first place.