2021 Cincinnati City Council Election Non-Prediction Predictions

 I have no definitive knowledge of who will be the top nine vote getters on November 2nd.  I have no polling data.  I not aware of any polls having been conducted on the council race.  In conclusion, no one knows who is going to win and if you clicked on this article in the hopes of knowing that, well you are a fool. (Kidding, on the square)

That being said...I've done some analysis.  I compiled lots of data.  I've got the results of 2017 council and mayoral election.  I have the 2020 election results.  I have the 2020 census data compiled by voting precinct. I have a ton of information about the 35 candidates on the ballot.  I've reviewed all of that I have some thoughts on who likely will get elected to the Cincinnati City Council.

Before I get to that, I want to outline the core elements of the Cincinnati electorate, from perspective. I also will describe some of the key variables that will determine the winners and what are likely scenarios for who gets on council.

Cincinnati Voting Blocks
First off, what are the voting blocks in Cincinnati?  Oh, what do I mean by a voting block, you ask?  Well, I define a voting block as a group or classification of voters that have common characteristics that provide a referential means to identify political philosophy, Party, race, identity, or other views that would indicate how they would vote.  This is absolutely a generalization about people.  Without polling data that includes self assigned characteristics, there is no other way than to generalize.  I am trying to do that based on the data I have, the voting history of the City by precinct, and my experience in covering/observing Cincinnati elections. 

These groups are not monolithic. In a council race, some Republicans can and will vote for a Democrat and some Democrats will vote for a Republican.  For parties with more options, that is less common than parties with a short ticket. All in all this is kind of messy, but there is a means to judge who each group will support.

What that leaves are the following general voting blocks of voters. 

1. Black Democrats - They will support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support black candidates more than white candidates? Yes, some. 
2. White Democrats - They will also support the Democratic ticket. Is there evidence they support white candidates more than black candidates? Yes, some.
3. Moderates - To poorly use a Ghostbusters reference: this group likes to cross the streams. They will support some Democrats, some in Charter, some Republicans, and even Independents. They tend to support those who are bit more supportive of business and the police, but don’t like the extremes.
4. Republicans - I've segmented out the Trumpists from this block as a significant number of Republicans in the City did not vote for Trump. The lines between some in this group and the Trumpists are blurry on most policy.
5. Trumpists - This is a new block that is not large, but I've made distinct from Republicans because of what I see a degree of a split in the Republican Party, but also because of their voting variation.  These are the hard right Republicans.
6. Black Conservatives - For much of the 21st Century I would call this the Winburn/Smitherman vote. They are going to support some Democrats and Charterites too.
7. Progressives - This group has two components: Those to the left in the Democratic Parry and Leftists outside the Democratic Party. This group will vote for some Democrats and progressive Independents.

I assign no totals to these blocks, but on some levels they can be derived.  There are way more Democrats in the City of Cincinnati than Republicans.  There are not as many Progressives than some Progressives think there are.  Most candidates need support in more than one of these blocks to break into the top nine.  Sometimes they need three blocks to win.  It all depends on who votes.

Variables
So many things can change an election.  There can be one thing and there can be many things.  They can be conflicting and cancel each other out.  Some of them can be appear to be insignificant, but can make or break a candidates.  Some of these variables happen on election day and some are part of the campaign. These are not all of the possible variables, but they are what I think we can observe and evaluate.

1. Overall Turnout - Candidates generally can't do much about this.  This relies on three things: 1) how easy it is to vote, 2) how well the Parties or other significant GOTV efforts worked, and 3) the weather.
2. Voting Block Turnout - This is something candidates can have an impact on.  Consider this getting our your base, but in this type of an at large election other attributes can help.  Issues and topics can drive out one block and keep another at home.  If there are blocks tied to certain neighborhoods or parts of the City, those groups could see a serge in turnout if something that year matters.  
3. Party Endorsement - This year may be a test for this idea, but getting a major party endorsement has nearly been a requirement to get elected to Cincinnati City Council  The value of the endorsement has structural advantages to the campaign in terms of resources, but this is as good as any signal for a majority of voters to understand a candidate's political views and their seriousness.
4. Name Recognition - Incumbency is one version, being a prior elected official is another. Being well known helps as well. Having a well known last name does not hurt either.
5. Fund Raising- Money matters. 
6. Campaign Communications - This has several parts, but the core types are mailers, TV/radio ads, web ads, phone banking, and personal canvassing.  These largely rely on fundraising, but the messages used are also very  important. Negative campaigning is not very effective for one candidate to attack another. This hasn’t been seen so far in the council race. Getting outside groups to do it, that is more common, but how effective it is not a proven concept.
7. Positions on policy or political philosophy - This can matter in some elections, but in reality, not as much as people think. Just because a candidate is for or against an policy is not enough, if that they can effectively communicate those ideas, they will get no where.

These variables at this point are mostly played out. You can get some turnout changes at this point, but most of the rest of these have occurred.

Turnout
The only measurement of Turnout we can see is with early and absentee voting.  As of the end of last week, turnout is up significantly in comparison to turnout in 2017 at the last City Election.  With COVID-19's impact on early/absentee voting, this increase may be far less of a indication of higher turnout and instead part of the shift of votes that would have been cast on Election Day in person.  In comparison to the terrible turnout in 2017, I would predict that 2021 will exceed the 29% by a few percentage points at least. Not all of the increase is COVID related.

Scenarios
Who is going to have power on council?  That is the question that really matters.  That is also a question that could change depending on who gets electected.  Party affiliation is not a guarantee of unity.  Here are the likely possible combinations of who gets power.

1. Democrats in Strong Control with 6 or 7 seats, 2-3 seats split between GOP/Charter - This would be considered a conventional wisdom outcome.  Many see this as the likely situation (some may call it inevitable.) A related version of this scenario would have 1 of GOP/Charter group go to an Independent Progressive Candidate. This is an example where the variable voting block turnout would come into play on the election.
2. Democrats in Control with 5 seats - here you could see Dems with control, but the other 4 seats in all sort of combinations.  Turnout would drive the power of the rest, a surge for the GOP/Charter or a mix in of Charter/Independents could fill in numbers.  Dems would control and on many issue would have as much power as a 6 or 7 seat majority since most of the Charter or Independent candidates are Democrats.
3. Charter/GOP in Control - This is the hope of the GOP.  They would need to get at least three to make this happen, and hope pro-business Charterites want to work together.
4. No Dominant Party in Control -  This split could be amongst the three parties.  This could also be a mix of non-party endorsed.  This is also not that likely, but many candidates and their follows love to dream about it.

Candidate Groupings
I don’t know who is going to win, but I believe I have grouped together all of the candidates into a group that represents my opinion on their chances to win the 2021 City Council Election. I don’t know vote counts, so I really can’t rank the order of finish. With the number of candidates and a lower than normal sense of incumbency, the spread of votes could be tighter, making the race closer to get into the top nine. 

Likely to Win-They should win.

Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney
Greg Landsman

Strong Chance - The other 7 slots should come from this group, but it is not guaranteed.

Jeff Cramerding
Kevin Flynn
Steve Goodin
Reggie Harris
Mark Jeffreys

Scotty Johnson
Liz Keating
Meeka Owens
Victoria Parks
Jim Tarbell

Possible - Depending turnout and the mood of the voter, someone in this group could win, but likely no more than one or two could slip into the top 9 and bump 1 or 2 of those with a strong chance out. Some of those in this group could also fall even lower.

Michelle Dillingham
Jackie Frondorf
Galen G. Gordon
Phillip O'Neal
Betsy Sundermann
John Williams
Tom Brinkman
Jamie Castle
Bill Frost
Brian Garry
Kurt Grossman
Evan C. Holt

Not Going to Win  - The hurdles are just too high to overcome the groups above.

Jalen Alford
LaKeisha Cook
Rob Harris
K. A. Heard
Nick Jabin
Andrew Kennedy
John Maher
Peterson W. Mingo
TeAirea R. Powell
Logan-Peter Simmering
Stacey Smith

I look forward to following turnout during the day on Election Day and will be on Twitter @cincyblog on election night.

Great Cincinnati City Council 2021 Candidates Guide From WVXU

If you are looking for a great guide on all of the candidates for Cincinnati City Council, then look no further than the guide from WVXU Cincinnati's local NPR radio station.

Will Cincinnati Republicans Endorse for Cincinnati Council?

 It is the end of June and local Republicans still appear to be living in a Trumpist haze.  The HamCoGOP Twitter account is a step away from spouting Qanon dogma or MyPillow religious proclamations.  Alex Triantafilou, Chairperson of the Hamilton County Republican Party, has long wanted to mount a take over of the City.  The rest of his party leadership prefers to take actions that hurt the City of Cincinnati and see its demise. None of them seem to be doing much to support enough candidates to actually to do much on council.

For the the last few years their efforts have, not surprisingly, been to undemocratically seize control of City Council through the courts. This effort to use the courts by Republican hack lawyers to sue their way back onto council came to halt recently when a commission appointed by the Ohio Supreme Court refused to Suspend Wendell Young. They were able to swing one additional council for a Republican, but couldn't get another one.

That failure appears to have taken the wind out of the sails of the Republicans. They were running a campaign against "corruption" which Republicans have done far more in the state than any Democrat could ever do (see Larry Householder.) None-the-less their presumptive candidates and allies have pushed charter amendments and are pushing more to tie the hands of any elected council member who is not rich or a practicing lawyer from being able to serve.  Call it yet another anti-democracy effort by Republicans to limit the rights of the masses and empower the Republicans.

All of this still leaves a Cincinnati City Council election ahead and time is running out.  At this point there are only three candidates the GOP likely will endorse, Sundermann, Keating, and Goodin.  None of them have been elected before, but are serving as council members.  That means they are vulnerable.  We've not had a city election since 2017 and Democrats elected six members to Council. The City has become more Democratic since then.  The manufactured scandals are the only thing working in the Republicans favor and unless they get more candidates, they are not going to have a governing majority to make it worth anything.

The Charter Committee stands to have more influence on City Council than the Republican Party after this election.  Two Charter endorsees, Goodin and Keating, are Republicans and presumed to get cross endorsements.  Their tenure so far has been very much as Charter Republicans, which would be considered a Moderate Republican.  Moderates in the GOP are an endangered species.  On the other hand, Sundermann has acted like a typical Conservative and even though she's not pushed the envelope of right wing nuttiness that has taken over her party.  She tows the GOP line, but has kept the Trump worship under wraps.

I would propose the best thing the Republicans could do for Goodin and Keating would be to refuse to endorse them for Council and only endorse Sundermann.  That would give them attention and make them independent from the GOP and allow them to be Charterites.  At the same time, both would have no problem getting the 4th Street business community to donate to them, which in the City is the ONLY reason a candidate would want the Republican endorsement.

There is still time for other candidates to get in the race and there are other candidates who have taken out petitions and declared themselves as candidates who are Republicans.  Those out there now, like Linda Matthews don't have much of a campaign going and at this point that means they are not raising any money to hire staff.  That means they are not viable and likely not going to get an endorsement, unless the GOP wants to try and save face.

There are a few names that could get in the race at this late point, but they are smart enough to know that the GOP brand in the City is about as damaged as it could be and this year it is not going to get any better. There is not much money up for grabs from the Suburbs to change the city.  The Hamilton County Suburbs are not as fertile ground as they were for the GOP.  The exurbs outside the County are where they have to go and the Exurban GOP donor appears to be stuck in Trumpism. A good Trumpist wants cities to be destroyed, so that leads them into a bit of conundrum.

I would expect something from Republicans in the form of an endorsement slate soon, so the candidates can get some fundraiser mailings out to GOP lists.  The GOP announcement then gives the Cincinnati FOP the ability to endorse, as they don't make endorsements without knowing who the GOP is pushing.  These groups work together on City Politics 98% of the time.  The rest of the GOP leaning groups will following along too, but there may be less this year, as they all are so far down the Trump rabbit hole that if you are not 100% loyal to Trump, you can't be a Republican.  I hope they keep this idea going.  Purity is the downfall of a political effort and the Republican Party needs to go the way of the Dodo.

June Cincinnati City Council Candidate Update

The Cincinnati City Council election race is starting to make noise. Some of that noise is a personification of the X-Brood (Cicadas.)  There are 90 people who on paper at least are still in the race, but just over half of those appear to be like an empty carcass.  By my count there are 43 campaigns still with an indication of life.

The Charter Committee and the Democratic Party have issued their endorsements.  The manufactured drama the process has spawned has been mostly a waste of time. Conservatives/Moderates baulked over the idea of the Dems determining they would not cross endorse candidates. The hot air created on that front would have been useful if a large balloon was available. The nerve of Democrats wanting to run an organized campaign that will try to win as many seats for their party. Who would want to do such a thing?

As for the so called 'Progressives' in(and circling outside) the Democratic Party, the angst was thick like a beef stew that none of them would eat. They publicly complained about the process, the first sign that they don't want the Democratic Party to win a majority of seats on council, instead they want their 'faction' to gain power in the local party.  It is almost like none of them pay attention to actual politics and instead just read columns from Huff Post, Nation, and the Intercept.  There are far too many so called 'Progressives' who seem to want to wage a war of purity instead of winning elections.  If you are not in 100% agreement with their policy issue of the day, they will seek to destroy you and run you out of town on a Twitter rail. Losing the Issue 3 election appears to have not provided them with a wake up call to reality.  We don't live in New York's 14th district.  Most of the world is not like the NY-14 and most certainly most of Cincinnati is not like it.  Those who didn't learn back in May will learn it in November.

As for the Republicans, they are/were either working on some big plan or their party is in far more internal turmoil locally than I thought. I guess when the national leader of your party orchestrates an Insurrection, you can't get yourself as motivated as your should. It is almost the end of June and they have not announced their endorsements yet. That is not a good sign.  I've listed people below with the Republican "R" after their name,  but that is the affiliation from their voter registration, nothing more.  I can only speculate that the Party's plan was to get Wendell Young suspended from council and have faithful Ted Winkler appoint another loyal Republican to council.  That effort appears to have fallen flat on its face. I guess that fizzled like attempted fascist coup on January 6th.

Other than the three Republicans currently serving on council there are not any candidates with a campaign in motion.  There are a few placeholders with Facebook pages, but for a Republican, they need to be credible and raising money.  Credibility for a Republican is not from an amature hour Facebook page with a link to a donation page.  The GOP can't field a true fire breather for office in the City.  Sundermann is as close as they can get, it would appear, and she is by far the most vulnerable sitting member of council.  There just may not be anyone else willing to run without the perception of incumbency. None of the three were elected to office, so calling them an incumbent requires a set of rosey glasses.  That leaves the Republicans in the same place they have been most of the City elections this Century, a minority party.  Hell, it is possible that they are the third party or not have anyone on council at all. Their last hurrah in the city could have been a feeble attempt to abuse power by appointing their way to a majority.  That fits the GOP motif.

For the Council Candidate Update, I should  have more groups listed with their endorsements.  I also plan to start arranging candidates into tiers.   Each tier would indicate my opinion on their chances.  There will be no polling data for me to use. I'll just be looking at various factors to judge their candidacy and campaign and viability.  This will lean towards art over science, but won't be void of history or logic. I am sure I'll piss off someone, but that is not new.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman * (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney * (D)
Betsy Sundermann * (R)

Temporary Replacements to Council
Steve Goodin (R,C)
Liz Keating (R,C)

Announced Candidates
Robert Adler (I)
Jalen Alford (D)
Key Beck (I)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Jamie Castle (D)
LaKeisha Cook (I)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Kevin Flynn (I)
Jackie Frondorf (C)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Galen Gordon (C)
Terence Gragston (I)
Kurt Grossman (D)
Cam Hardy (C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Rob Harris (D)
K. Heard (G)
Chris Hikel (I)
Evan Holt (DSA)
Nick Jabin (I)
Mark Jeffreys (D)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Andrew Kennedy (I)
Rayshon Mack (R)
John Maher (I)
Linda Matthews (R)
Natasha Mitchell (R)
J. Nickels (I)
Phillip O'Neal (D)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Logan-Peter Simmering (G)
Stacey Smith (D)
James Tarbell (C)
Dadrien Washington (I)
John Williams (D)

Inactive Announced Candidates
Britton Carter (D)
Gary Favors (R)
Nora Hartsock (I)
Dale Mallory (D)
Nicole McWhorter (D)
Victor Phillips (I)
Gregory Schill (R)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Individuals Who Have Taken Out Petitions to Run, but Appear to Be Inactive
Bilal Ahmad (I)
William Andrews (I)
Aaryn Barnes (I)
David Booker (I)
Melinda Brown (I)
Darius Clay (I)
John Clifton (I)
Ali Coulibaly (I)
Zacheriah Davis (I)
Sean Fausto (R)
Robert Foster (I)
Randy Freking (I)
Martha Good (I)
Brent Gray (I)
Michael Haithcoat (R)
Bem Itiavkase (I)
Aprina Johnson (I)
Eric Knapp (I)
Joe McCloud (I)
Deborah Metz (I)
Robert Moore (I)
William Moore (I)
Jim Neil (I)
TeAirea Powell (I)
Thomas Price (R)
Stephan Pryor (I)
Isaiah Robinson (I)
Morleen Rouse (I)
Martin Rutland (I)
Antonio Sanders (I)
Larry Showes (I)
Demetrius Stanton (I)
Andrew Sweeny (R)
Edith Thrower (R)
David Walker (I)
Damon Watkins (I)
Laura Ann Weaver (D)
Brandie Woods (I)
Nathaniyah Yisrael (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party

DSA= Democratic Socialists of America
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Democrats Not Endorsing Michelle Dillingham Should Not Be a Shock to Anyone

The Cincinnati Democratic Committee has announced their preliminary slate of endorsements for Cincinnati City Council.  One name was "snubbed." This list is not final and could be changed by the committee as a whole, but they shouldn't do that and no one should be shocked. Dillingham has demonstrated she is not inclined to be a team player. Her political positions have become increasingly leftist, only appealing to a smaller and uncompromising group. She would be a risk to hurt the rest of team more than help them. The only upside is past performance.

The angst voiced by some leftist Cincinnati Twitter users is expected, but any objective observer could see this play coming.  There is some risk to it.  There could be a revolt, but pissing off a bunch of leftists who were not going to vote for the full Democratic slate of nine candidates is not going to affect their election chances.

Leftist activists have been mostly pushing either a short ticket voting strategy or just voting for a list of long shots and Dillingham.  What I think is driving the angst is that many thought she would win with an endorsement. She would be the leftist "voice" on council. I think with a Dem endorsement she would likely win.  Without the Dem endorsement, it will be much more difficult.  If she starts running against the Democratic Party or other candidates, she won't help her chances much. If she runs as the Leftist candidate, she won't help herself much, either.

If Leftists did not grasp how the Issue 3 vote went or how the 2020 election went for leftist views, then I don't see how they can be anything other than a loud fringe group, bent on destruction as much has their right wing opposites, willing to bring down everyone for a fantasy.

What is the State of the Cincinnati Mayoral Race?

May 4th is the date of the 2021 Mayoral Primary Election and we are less than one month away. I have no idea who is going to win or come in second, so don't expect any big predictions.  The top two vote getters make it to the General Election in November.  Six candidates are on the ballot for the primary and three of them are experienced elected officials.  The other three are not. That sums things up, pretty much.  This has been a damn quiet campaign thus far.  Still time for tricks, but with no Cranley in the race, I don't expect too much dirty campaigning.

This is the 20th anniversary, of sorts, of the first Mayoral Primary enacted after a City Charter Amendment re-establishing the direct election for the Mayor of Cincinnati. Back in 2001 the primary was held in September, unlike 2021.  The primary in 2001 was in fact held on 09/11/2001.  For some that date may ring a bell.  I lived in Mt. Washington at the time and my voting location was at the Mt. Washington United Methodist Church.  I left work early that day, around 4:45 or so.  I wasn't getting anything done, so I figured I would go vote.  I figure few others would do the same as many had other things on their mind. After driving from Downtown, I got there a little past 5 PM.  There was no line and the poll workers were quiet.  I asked how many had voted and they told me about 25 that day so far.  I nodded in appreciate for information, took my ballot and voted.  Not that many people voted that day, but I really don't blame anyone, it was 9/11.

Jump forward to May of 2017 and we are in the 4th year of John Cranley's terrible reign as Mayor, the man who has the vision of a suburbanite and vindictiveness of a spoiled brat whose parents didn't get him a purple pony.  The Mayoral Primary that year was in May, as another Charter Amendment moved it  to fit with the normal primary timing in Ohio.  May of 2017 was a normal day, nothing else to drive turnout way down or way up.  What we got was a smaller turnout than on 9/11. Our City's attention was clear to focus on the primary, but the turnout tanked.

A 4.25% LOWER turnout than on 9/11. Our City is that apathetic that we could not match 9/11.  Some I am sure will claim that patriotic fervor caught some, including myself, but no that's not valid.  Voting in the City has dropped massively over the last 20 years and even more so on these Mayoral Primary days.  We are choosing not to vote in massive numbers and it is a shame.  The numbers were better in the General Elections both years, but still not good.  Tens of thousands of Registered Voters who vote in Presidential Elections don't bother to vote in local elections, even in the local General Elections.  I know some apologists will point to voter suppression, but these are people who can and do vote, just not for local races.  They are choose not to vote.  This is not one party, this is a problem in every precinct. Calling this a primary may contribute to problem, as those who refuse to participate in the full on partisan primaries, but that is not much of an excuse.  People just feed on their ignorance.  They don't bother knowing details about national politics, but so many are even more foolish when they don't have a clue about local elections which they could have a much more direct impact on their lives.

People moan and complain about the voting system we have and think if we just had magic beans in the form of another voting system things would improve.  What those folks don't tell you is that their goals are more about getting other candidates or other political parties into office, not for getting higher turnout.  What we need now is for people to vote and for people to be less cynical and more pragmatic.  The problem is so many who voice opinions today do so in a method that is either at the extremes or one based on "Total Politics" a concept where purity is a requirement and any derivation from their dogma means you are the enemy and part of the problem. The ideas comes from "Total War" which was a concept used during WWII that had nations 100% at war with other nations, making anything and everything as part of the war effort and far game to the conflict and anything short of full destruction of the enemy is seen as failure.

I am not sure which, if any, of the candidates on the primary ballot think like that, even slightly.  I've not seen them do so yet.  I've seen some Council Candidates do that on Social Media in what seemed like a bad AOC or Bernie imitation/homage skip at the Cincy chapter DSA talent show. 

The Mayor's race has been very tame thus far.  The only item that has gotten notice is the very bad Issue 3 Charter Amendment on the ballot at the same time as the Primary.  That Issue may drive turnout.  Whether it drives it out significantly or just marginally is the question. Significant turnout has two directions that could affect things. If No voters come out, that could benefit some candidates, like David Mann, as Republicans would be considered more likely No on Issue 3 voters and would take Mann as the least worst candidate of those with a better than average change to get the top two positions.  Thomas and Pureval could get a boost from a No surge, as both are against the Issue.

The other possible turnout increase would be for Yes voters, which might help some of the other three candidates who have a mix of support and/or sympathy to the issue, which if high enough could put them in the number two spot.  While an increase for Yes voters could help the Issue pass, it would in my view need to be significant to help the three new candidates win.

Reports indicates that Aftab Pureval has the lead in the limited polling done so far.  It would be a big surprise not to see him in the top two.  The other spot is likely to be either David Mann or Cecil Thomas, but low turnout elections are wild cards. Getting your base to the polls is the key and that takes an organization.  I don't know who has that working on all cylinders right now and there is no time to start from scratch, so we'll who makes the cut.

For your review: The Candidates with links to their campaign websites:

Gavi Begtrup
David Mann
Herman J. Najoli
Raffel Prophett
Aftab Pureval
Cecil Thomas

20 Years Later, Peter Bronson is Still Terrible.

 It is 20 years after a Cincinnati police officer killed an unarmed man, Timothy Thomas. The Enquirer solicited a wide set of opinions from people who dealt with much of the events in the days, months and years after that tragic night. 

The choice was made by the Enquirer to include Peter Bronson, former Enquirer columnist and Editorial Page editor, in this project. On the surface, it makes sense. He was part of the newspaper’s coverage back then and it is logical to think he would have a perspective that would have insights that add context from a conservative point of view. For all of Bronson’s right wing drivel he out out during his career,  he had a one on reputation to be a reasonable person, especially compared to the Republican media of today. Plus he’s prose and one might think he has learned something in retirement.

Well, instead of insight or reflection or evolved wisdom we got a pissant FOXNews type column (not going to link to it) filled with cheap shots, mistruths, and wannabe Tucker Carlson blather that appears to have written for the Dusty Rhodes cabal of Old Cincinnati. 

That cabal  filled with the crusty old men, mostly men, who are now mostly near death or retired from public life, as the new phrase goes, and held Cincinnati back from being a growing vibrant city 30-40 years ago. These are men that pushed self righteous hate on everyone they could.

That type of old mindset kept our country from learning from our mistakes and just repeated them, often out of spite. That Old Cincinnati is done and needs to not be heard from again.

Peter Bronson should retire from public life. He is not a good person. A good person does not write that column. A good person can gain some perspective. Bronson, like Rhodes is a bitter old man who has no value to society. 

I think puzzles and shuffleboard are the most we can expect from Peter. I expect he cheats at both as he has demonstrated he has no class.

The Enquirer should never print another word from him ever.

January City Council Candidates Update

It is officially election year in Cincinnati, Ohio and partisan politics is ripe with the rank Republican spectacle that is Probate Judge Ralph Winkler. The suburbanite judge saw it as his duty to make a partisan pick of Republican Liz Keating to temporarily replace P.G. Sittenfeld who agreed to a suspension while he faces criminal charges. 

A Republican gives a rich kid a leg up in the council race.  Wannabe aristocratic families don't need help from the cheap seats, but if anyone is going to help them out, they can count on a Republican.

The next month or so will be taken up with the 3D chess match taking place with the laundry list of Mayoral Candidates.  This post will stay away from that log jam waiting to happen.

Instead this is the the time starting figuring out how many real candidates are running?  I say "real" with no trepidation.  There are too many candidates and we only need serious candidates who are willing to act like leaders who understand that role of Council members is to govern.  I fear we have an abundance of crackpots and flake candidates who are looking for attention.  I really hope they get out of the race quickly.  I don't have time to bother following those who are less than sane or just out to make a few pithy twitter posts.

The next half of a year is when serious candidates are raising contributions and building up a network of people that give them a conceivable chance of winning.  Going viral is not going to get you elected, so setting up a website that can take campaign contributions is the first sign that people are real candidates.  Just getting on the ballot does not make what I would call a real candidate.

Another rule for candidates: Don't make unforced errors. Council Member Betsy Sundermann had worst timing ever.  You are not going to get elected to Cincinnati Council by enabling Donald Trumps lies, ever with an abstention.

  
Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D-Appointed)
Jeff Pastor (R Suspended from Office with criminal charges pending)
Betsy Sundermann (R-Appointed)

Temporary Replacement to Council
Steve Goodin (R) (for Pastor's Seat)

Liz Keating (R) (for Sittenfeld's Seat)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (?)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Key Beck (?)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Kevin Flynn (I)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Victoria Parks (D)
Stacey Smith (D)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I?)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Becky Finnigan (D)
Jim Neil (?)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, these references will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

November City Council Candidates Update - Revised

Well, I thought there wouldn't be much action in the council race at this point, but Republican Jeff Pastor was arrested under serious criminal charges involving his office as a member of City Council. Several Local Republicans quickly threw him under the bus.  Too bad those Republicans didn't have the spine to do that to Larry Householder or Trump.  Another group of Republicans, like a certain conservative columnist who is regularly sniffing the butts of conservative Republicans in hopes of landing a full time radio gig, just blames the City in mass for the actions of indivduals.  His regular anti-city rants fit right in with the bigotry rampant within the GOP, who as evidenced by the targeting of cities in their feeble Fascist crusade to try and subvert Democracy in America, are just blowing dog whistles for racists.

So, we'll have a Republican Circus to deal with.

The most entertaining part will be watching Chris Smitherman, as the current designated member of council, to make the appointment to Council should Jeff Pastor resign. Smitherman does odd contortions to hide being a Republican.  It is what I call a complete lie and he and his Trumpist followers get in a frensy whenever I say he is a Republican on Twitter.  They defend lies all the time, so what is one more?

Anyway, the entertaining part is watching how he'll spin appointing a Republican.  It will be even more entertaining if he appoints a white Republican. The assumption is that he would appoint someone with a shot at winning next year.  There are only four announced Republicans.

But wait, there's more:  With the additional arrest of P.G. Sittenfeld, we may also end up seeing an additional election eligible person to the council.  There are four current Democratic members of council who will jointly appoint any possible replacement.  Sittenfeld has stated his innocence and has indicate he will not resign from Council.  This has no other affect on the Council Race, other than Republicans and outsiders using it as a talking point.  The FBI investigation could theoretically arrest other candidates, but as Sittenfeld would be considered the more "newsworthy" for US Attorney, unless Mayor John Cranley is in his sites, we won't see any other council members arrested, (But who knows). Make note that to be fare, Jeff Pastor is accused of more crimes than Sittenfeld, but as the news coverage is obvious, the Republicans wanted this one more and are going to exploit it.  The media will continue to do their bidding on this topic as well.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D-Appointed)
Jeff Pastor (R with criminal charges pending)
Betsy Sundermann (R-Appointed)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (I)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Key Beck (I)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Stacey Smith (I)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Becky Finnigan (D)
Steve Goodin (R)
Jim Neil (I)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, this reference will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

November City Council Candidates Update

Well, I thought there wouldn't be much action in the council race at this point, but Republican Jeff Pastor was arrested under serious criminal charges involving his office as a member of City Council. Several Local Republicans quickly threw him under the bus.  Too bad those Republicans didn't have the spine to do that to Larry Householder or Trump.  Another group of Republicans, like a certain conservative columnist who is regularly sniffing the butts of conservative Republicans in hopes of landing a full time radio gig, just blames the City in mass for the actions of indivduals.  His regular anti-city rants fit right in with the bigotry rampant within the GOP, who as evidenced by the targeting of cities in their feeble Fascist crusade to try and subvert Democracy in America, are just blowing dog whistles for racists.

So, we'll have a Republican Circus to deal with.

The most entertaining part will be watching Chris Smitherman, as the current designated member of council, to make the appointment to Council should Jeff Pastor resign. Smitherman does odd contortions to hide being a Republican.  It is what I call a complete lie and he and his Trumpist followers get in a frensy whenever I say he is a Republican on Twitter.  They defend lies all the time, so what is one more?

Anyway, the entertaining part is watching how he'll spin appointing a Republican.  It will be even more entertaining if he appoints a white Republican. The assumption is that he would appoint someone with a shot at winning next year.  There are only four announced Republicans.

But wait, there's more:  With the additional arrest of P.G. Sittenfeld, we may also end up seeing an additional election eligible person to the council.  There are four current Democratic members of council who will jointly appoint any possible replacement.  Sittenfeld has stated his innocence and has indicate he will not resign from Council.  This has no other affect on the Council Race, other than Republicans and outsiders using it as a talking point.  The FBI investigation could theoretically arrest other candidates, but as Sittenfeld would be considered the more "newsworthy" for US Attorney, unless Mayor John Cranley is in his sites, we won't see any other council members arrested, (But who knows). Make note that to be fare, Jeff Pastor is accused of more crimes than Sittenfeld, but as the news coverage is obvious, the Republicans wanted this one more and are going to exploit it. The media will continue to do their bidding on this topic as well.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D-Appointed)
Jeff Pastor (R with criminal charges pending)
Betsy Sundermann (R-Appointed)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (I)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Key Beck (I)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Stacey Smith (I)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Becky Finnigan (D)
Steve Goodin (R)
Jim Neil (I)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

The party designations at this time are what I've seen reported or what I've determined based on my observations. These notations do not mean the candidate is endorsed by any political party or group. Once official endorsements are made, this reference will be updated to reflect the endorsements. 

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me or unsure.

Generational Voting Segments in Hamilton County, Ohio

 I know there are other nerds out there who wonder which generations vote locally?  I let loose a little bit of my Nerdiness on a spreadsheet and created the chart and table displayed below. They detail the last two federal elections and breaks down the generations listed on the Hamilton County Registered Voter listing as of 09/25/2020.

September City Council Candidates Update

We are over 13 months away from the next City Election, so I think it's time to update the listing of Council Candidates. As you will see, things have changed quite a bit since my last update 6 months ago.

We have a shit ton of candidates at this stage that are considered "Announced."  I say they are announced with a massive salt lick to go with that determination.  You see, the Cincinnati Enquirer ran a story and a follow up story providing a listing of candidates who they deemed have "Announced" their candidacy for Cincinnati City Council. They had a short bio with a few indicative data points about each candidate along with a picture for most. Not a bad couple of stories.  The only problem is that they didn't indicate how any of the candidates made an announcement. A large contingent of the announced candidate haven't even created a Facebook page for their campaign.  That is free to anyone, but some haven't done that, even after they provided information to a reporter working on a story that was going to get them more press than they will get again..  Getting off to a non-start is not a good way to announce your candidacy.

I have included everyone the Enquirer listed on my list.  Most were ones I already had, but they have included several that were new to me and had no online presence I could find. For this update I have not segmented any type of analysis as to whom may have more of a viable candidacy than other candidates, except that I grouped the incumbents and announced candidates separate from the might run prior candidates or the still couple of rumored candidates that were out there. 

There won't be must churn on this list until next year when fundraising and signature gathering starts in earnest.

Incumbents
Greg Landsman (D)
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)
Jeff Pastor (R)
Betsy Sundermann (R)

Announced Candidates
Jalen Alford (I?)
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Derrick Blassingame (R)
Michael Cappel (D)
Britton Carter (D)
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
Ryan DuPree (D)
Christine Fisher (D)
Manuel Foggie (D)
Bill Frost (C)
Brian Garry (D)
Cam Hardy (D,C)
Reggie Harris (D)
Evan Holt (I)
Dani Isaacsohn (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Scotty Johnson (D)
Liz Keating (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Dale Mallory (D)
Linda Matthews (R)
Meeka Owens (D)
Dadrien Washington (D)
McKinzie Wright (I)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Henry Frondorf (I?)
Seth Maney (R)
Kelli Prather (I)
Laure Quinlivan (D)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Steve Goodin (R)
Matt Woods (C)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me.

March 2020 Cincinnati City Council Candidates Update

Well, a little shake up on City Council that no one expected over the last month.  Republicans "selected" someone for Amy Murray's seat and a member of council, Tamaya Dennard, resigned after being charged with bribery, but has now been replaced.  All the while a primary election was cancelled due to COVID-19.

So, nothing much to worry about.  The delay in the primary puts off any campaigning and fundraising and really little else is going on outside of how self consciously one is about drinking alone while physical/socially distancing,

I don't know if other candidates are going to use this time home to develop campaign strategy, but that may be the only thing possible for City Politics.

Incumbents Eligible to Run
Greg Landsman (D)*
Jeff Pastor (R)*
Betsy Sundermann (R)*
Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney (D)*

Announced Candidates
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Brian Garry (D)
Jalen Alford (D?)
Bill Frost (C)

Prior Candidates Likely to Run
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Henry Frondorf (D,C)
Seth Maney (R)
Kelli Prather (D)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Ozie Davis III (D)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Manuel Foggie (I?)
Tamie Sullivan (R,I ?)
Leslie Jones (D)
Tonya Dumas (D)
Erica Black-Johnson (I)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Cam Hardy (D,C,I ?)
Matt Woods (C)
Dadrien Washington (D)
Derrick D. Blassingame (R)
Liz Keating (R)
Steve Goodin (R)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
?= I am speculating based on my reading of the information and observations available to me.

Cincinnati City Council Candidates Update

Early in 2020 there are not big changes to the number of candidates officially running, but Republicans are falling all over themselves to get an appointment to City Council. Most would be consider it a big advantage running for council as an incumbent.  Many of theses Republicans seem to forget that they face long odds at getting elected to office as a Republican in the City of Cincinnati, even as an incumbent.  I have included in my list below those who put in an application with the Republican Party to fill Amy Murray's seat.  Murray announced recently she was soon leaving City Council to take a Trump political appointment in the Defense Department.  Murray is drinking the Kool-Aide to further her political career in a party that has gone off the deep end into neo-fascism.  Good luck with that, Amy.

I would estimate that at least 75% of the Republicans looking to fill Murray's seat have no intention of running for Council in 2021 WITHOUT being an incumbent.  The Republicans only candidate that has won with room to spare recently has been Chris Smitherman and he got that by pretending to Not be a Republican.  Murray and Pastor were the 8th and 9th place winners, by the skin of their teeth in 2017.  This will be the only time I list out those Republicans, unless they are serious about running for council. The pick for Murray's seat should be done within about a month, so, at that point, those other candidates running might declare.

The rest of candidates of all parties considering a run still have more time to organize.  Here's this latest update:

Incumbents Eligible to Run
Tamaya Dennard (D,C) *
Greg Landsman (D) *
Jeff Pastor (R) *

Announced Candidates
Jeff Cramerding (D)
Michelle Dillingham (D)
James Jenkins (I)
Brian Garry (D)
Jalen Alford (D?)

Prior Candidates Likely to Run
Derek Bauman (D,C)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Henry Frondorf (D,C)
Seth Maney (R)
Kelli Prather (D)

Prior Candidates Who Might Run
Ozie Davis III (D)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Manuel Foggie (I?)
Tamie Sullivan (R,I ?)
Leslie Jones (D)
Tonya Dumas (D)
Erica Black-Johnson (I)

Rumored Or Speculated Candidates
Cam Hardy (D,C,I ?)
Matt Woods (C)
Dadrien Washington (D)
Derrick D. Blassingame (R)

Other Republicans Who Wanted to be Appointed to Murray's Seat These individuals want to be on council, based on seeking the open seat, but they have not indicated yet that they are running for office without being an appointed incumbent.
Tommy Price (R)
Jacob Samad (C,R)
Devoe Sherman (R)
Betsy Sundermann (R)
Liz Keating (R)
Gary Lee (R)
Rayshon Mack (R)
Linda Matthews (R)
Steve Megerle (R)
Heather Couch (R)
Jacqueline Ennis (R)
Gary Favors (R)
Garrett Gerard (R)
William Glines (R)
Steve Goodin (R)
Scott Harper (R)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

As always:  If anyone has any other names please send them my way (editor@cincyblog.com) or if anyone named above wants to confirm they are not running, I'll remove them future postings of this list. If there are other social media or full websites I don't list, send them along as well.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent

Do the Hamilton County Republicans Have a Plan for the 2021 Elections or NOT?

With the internal fight in Hamilton County Republican Party circles still smarting this week, what can be gleaned from what their strategic plan is for the 2021 City of Cincinnati Elections for Mayor and Council?

Get beyond your inclination to ask "Who cares?" That would be a mistake. I am a realist and very pragmatic. Always know as much as you can about what your oppornet is doing.  In the case of the Hamilton County GOP, that is a big question mark.  The one consistent thing they have done for the last nearly 20 years has been to give up on winning control of the City of Cincinnati.

The best they have been able to do is win over back room allies.  Case in point is moderate Democrat John Cranley, who only won the mayor's race because he got full throated support from Republican voters and donors. Cranley got a deal, no GOP opponent.  It has been over 10 years since the last Republican ran for mayor of Cincinnati and the number of publicly endorsed candidates for council has dwindled to less than a possible majority slate.

In 2021 there will be six open seats and a change in the length of term to only two years, down from four after a charter amendment.  That provides a big open door for new candidates. The problem for the GOP is that they have no bench strength.  They have one incumbent, Jeff Pastor, who eked out the ninth spot by just over 200 votes, so he will be at the whims of the tides on the next election.  Seth Maney was the other available endorsed candidate last time around.  Tamie Sullivan was another candidates as well, but I don't remember her getting much Republican support after she made a sensible anti-Trump public statement. She's thought of more as a moderate, which normally is what the Republicans mostly put forth in the City, but anymore you gotta drink the Kool-Aide on Trump.  Based on his Twitter likes, Seth Maney surprisingly fits the Kool-Aide drinking test on Trump, so he may be able to attempt a Yasser Arafat style campaign.  That's one where you speak one way to the world (the voters) and another way to a domestic audience (Suburban Republican donors.) Any other candidates out there are being kept low key or outright secrets.

Another surprise move for HCRP was to their new headquarters in Pendleton. They left their long time Downtown space and when north, to the edge of Downtown.  To many suburbanites, they can't tell the difference between Downtown and Hyde Park, so this move was not significant in terms of geography. The surprise is that they stayed Downtown.  Alex Triantafilou is no stranger to Downtown, but the party rank and file don't like Downtown, let alone anywhere in the City of Cincinnati itself. Keeping the headquarters in the city is a surprise. Moving out closer to their base would have been what I would have expected.  One would think that they could have also gotten a cheaper space, but that may been part of the deal with the move to Pendleton. I don't see a reason for them to stay there, other than the logical point that Downtown is the Center of the region and is where any group looking to be relevant on the big stage of the area. When they moved the BOE to Norwood, one would have thought they would be vacating the city at every chance.  As part of their anti-City national platform, leaving the big city for suburbs is the logical choice.

Does that given any support to the idea that the HCRP has a plan to win in 2021?  Do they think they have a mayoral candidate or a full slate of council candidates that can win? The right combination of money and name recognition can be the basis for any candidate for any party in Cincinnati. Have we reached a point, however, that thanks to national politics and the Westside White Flight of the last 20 years that the Republican Party is not a viable entity in City elections?

That leads me back to my initial thought, do they have a plan?  Well, Republicans are to blame for the frivolous scandal to hit City Hall and are doubly responsible for the interference from the State Republican officials interfering in local affairs to create a round two of that fabricated scandal. This effort is clearly being done for political purposes to damage future Democratic candidates for Mayor and Council. The knuckle draggers who manufactured the initial lawsuit that found a sympathetic activist Republican Judge that gave them a fishing license to create a scandal, would disagree with it, but the odd things is, as I wrote about recently, they are having a fight with HCRP leadership.

While the HCRP is certainly reveling in the scandal the knuckle draggers have created, they also know that overall, they need to have a longer view.  They know the County demographics are not changing in their favor and that they are losing the power of the Prosecutor's office and the Hamilton County Courts. That means the Republican scandals would be fair game for Democrats to pursue.  That pursuit would be one a long time coming and as well all know payback is a bitch. So, embracing the efforts of the knuckle draggers attempting to wrestle control of the Party isn't in their interest at all.

It just goes back to the simple truth about the Republican Party, it has become the White man and his wife's party and few others.  It's policies are extreme. Those in the City don't agree with the narrow mindedness of that party. Hamilton County voters are not far behind the City.  That scares the HCRP.

So, what can they do? I don't have an answer and I don't think they do either.  I don't think they have much of a plan.  Maybe they can find some young candidates or recruit a few well known names to run as candidates, but if they are right wingers, they are going to lose.  I think John Cranley is as conservative as a candidate can be and win as Mayor in Cincinnati. Some Republicans are pushing 80 year old David Mann to run and that is the most disingenuous support as could be. Sure he's in a Cranley orbit on policy, but they would drop him like a rock if flashy guy chose to run last minute and force a primary. It is underhanded to play that game with David Mann.

Unless Republicans can change the election rules, they are going to be out of control of City Hall.  Don't be surprised if they make their support for the effort to change to a district and at-large council structure, which is not a good one.  That would be the only way they can have an advantage, but even then, a right wing candidate wouldn't make it very far and that wouldn't give them the Mayor's seat.

In 2021 I think you can expect more of the same.  They might try and get a high profile Republican that thinks they can be next Brad Wenstrup, the last Republican to enter the Mayor's race.  He was able to turn that loss into a win in a gerrymandered congressional seat.  That will be difficult to repeat in the 2022 mid-terms, but who knows.

As for City Council, I wouldn't be surprised to see five Republicans make the ballot and that be spun as some grand victory alone, but then only two win.  That would be a loss in the number of Republican seats now held by Republicans or people who pretend to not be a Republican, but get elected by their support. That might be the best Plan the HCRP could have for 2021, unless a fascist state is established before then. That would make the knuckle draggers happy, but likely they'd be alone on that one.

Hamilton County Republicans Are Attempting to Eat Their Own

Twitter was a blaze yesterday, at least if you follow hardcore right wing Cincinnati area Republican/Conservative Twitter.  I know, I know, that is tortuous, but this time around there is a key observation to take note.

COAST represents the Trumpists in local conservative circles and they were making that more than clear leading the Twitter rants they made yesterday.  In their sights was Hamilton County Republican Party Chairman Alex Triantafilou.  Here's an example of their attacks:

We are waiting for just one @twitter commenter to say @ChairmanAlex’s track record has been anything but an unmitigated disaster. The facts speak for themselves. We have lost virtually every contested race since he became chairman, and many that were not seriously contested.

— COAST (@GOCOAST) January 18, 2020

The first thought on this is: pass the popcorn.

My second thought on this is to consider who is fighting.  One group is the local Trumpist windbag opportunists that love getting attention which I am unfortunately enabling.  This is the group that has worked to damage the City of Cincinnati and make money doing it. They have been extremist Republicans and on the fringe of the party looking in.

The other side is the leadership of the HCRP, namely Alex Triantafilou, who are among those Republicans who have embraced ALL of the hate, bigotry, sexism, criminality, and insanity that is Trump.  Yes, Alex and the local party is endorsing everything that is Donald Trump, right down to "grab 'em by the pussy." They own the abomination they voted for and Triantafilou voted for him twice, as an Trump Elector. The own it because they have not had the courage to break with Trump and dismiss what he says.  They are willing to live with ALL that he is and is doing to undermine the law, to destroy the dignity of the country, and dismantle the gains made in the world for American values of Democracy, Freedom, and Fairness.

So, who cares if they eat each other? Well, the observation I make of this is that the Extremists are looking to complete their take over of the Republican Party.  The COASTers have adopted (or just adapted) the Trumpist world view and are attempting their own internal insurrection.  I see it as COAST dreaming of another "Night of the Long Knives." They are calling to Trump's handpick leadership:

Our phones are ringing and DMs filling up with people who agree that @ChairmanAlex can’t continue to lead @HamCoGOP. Their concern: Disaster this fall. “He has a proven track record” one of them tells us. Yes, he does. @parscale @JaneyMurph

— COAST (@GOCOAST) January 18, 2020

The two referenced Twitter accounts at the end of the Tweet are for Trump's campaign manager Brad Parscale for Trump's hand picked Ohio GOP chair Jane Murphy. So the hope for COAST is that the local party should be taken over by the Trump campaign.

Let's repeat that.  COAST wants the Trump Campaign to take over the Hamilton County Republican Party.

This is the local Republican Party that has compromised their beliefs out of the desire for tax cuts, oppressive Federal Court appointments, and the fear of Trump. This is that Party is not extreme enough for the Trumpists (COAST.)   They are looking for a purge, hopefully sans violence. COAST wants to run the HCRP on behalf of Trump and carry out the extremist agenda being pushed. That agenda is Fascist. COAST is playing the role of wannabe Brownshirts.

I know this is going to be dismissed as hyperbole, but I am going to sound the alarm to Republicans out there.  By appeasing the Trumpists, they are not going to go away and they are going to push you out of power in your own party. No matter who wins in November, this is going to happen.  If Trump loses, well, that may finally kill the GOP. If Trump wins, that kills the Republic, and the GOP will have been a partner in that death.

The HCRP needs to reject COAST and stand up to the wannabe fascists they have claimed to be against. If they don't, watch the HCRP become an Alt-Right led group. Those welcoming COAST are welcoming fascism and that should concern those of who are not Republicans. Those of us who support Democracy, should support the existence of political parties that are not fascist.

After Years of Desire, John Cranley to Get His HardRock Cafe

17 years ago John Cranley was longing to turn OTR into a chain restaurant paradise. I called his effort ‘McMain Street’ back then, big box chain restaurants as his goal to fill Main Street in OTR. Well, after a long, long wait, John is getting a version of his desire: a Hard Rock Cafe, the pinnacle of pop culture in 1989. As part of the newly renamed HardRock Casino a HardRock Cafe will be built, just a block from Main Street.

I am positive John will be monitoring the construction schedule so he can block out his calendar to be sure to take part in the many events involved around its opening.

History Made Today With Appointment to the Hamilton County Commission

Victoria Parks was appointed today to fill the seat of Todd Portune on the Hamilton County Commission. This puts three women on the Commission. This makes history. The Enquirer's article points this out:

For the first time in history, the three-member Hamilton County Board of Commissioners is all-female and majority black. It's only the second all-female county board of commissioners in the state, the other being Montgomery County just to the north.

Parks is not seeking election to the office, but will serve out the remainder of the term. Previously she was the Chief of Staff for Todd Portune.

The Democratic primary for this office is setting up to be a close one. The GOP have a placeholder candidate in the primary and are taking for granted their voters.

Cincinnati Politics 101 for the 2020's

Hey there! If YOU are a political candidate looking to run for office in the City of Cincinnati there is one REALLY important rule you need to obey: Don't publically support Donald Trump.

Now, for a Democrat that is a no brainer, unless you are the Sheriff or a crusty old washed up former AM Radio DJ who can't fathom life after the 1960's.

For Republicans, well, that can be a problem.  I mean, I can understand how some Republicans who get excited for big wars with tanks and jets and bombs can't help it.  We all have our vices.  For some it is booze or cigars and for others it is getting a stiffy over a war you can watch on TV from the safety of your living room.

What you need to do is pretend you are actually are fighting a war and KEEP YOUR HEAD DOWN. On social media, don't starting liking posts from Trump that filled with bile, hate, and represent the worst Republicanism can offer. I know it's difficult to keep that in check, but if you want power, you must do as all Republicans do: hide your true opinions.

Unless you live in Saylor Park, Trumpism doesn't sell.  I means, sure in a few areas there are some closeted brownshirts waiting to get out. Tom Brinkman in Mt. Lookout is one of the few open extremists in the City, but even he only steps into it when it benefits him, which in his district is not as much as it used to do.

Even on local AM Talk radio stations, you need to dodge the questions about Trump.  Stay miles away from a Trump rally or even a visit by Mike Pence.

Now, if you are at an all GOP happy hour in a deep Westside bar or out in the burbs, let your fascist flag fly! Just remember to change out of the boots and brownshirt before you return to the city.

That's About it for 2019

Is there a good reason to reflect on a year? For the world this has been another shit filled 12 months.  For Cincinnati I would call it (at best) a "meh" year.  There were not many big issues to fill news cycles or political chat rooms that were important.

There still were some really crappy moments:

• There were poorly chaperoned teenagers acting shitty in DC.   
• There were many in the media who continued to use tabloid terminology as a means to demean members of Cincinnati City County they don't like personally or politically. If they keep it up into next year, I think I may be forced to come up with term that fits their actions.  The term Cabal comes to mind.
• There was a dumb ass Trump supporter who punched a protester outside the Trump Nuremberg-style rally. That was almost expected and promptly forgotten by the local media.
• There was former Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin demonstrating how horrible a human being he is with his pardons of a murder and of a child rapist. An investigation is underway to determine if the wealthy relatives of the criminals made any type of trade with Bevin for the pardons. His actions are morally corrupt, so the fitting punishment would be his conservative Christian community punishing him would be less than he deserves, but something.  Him behind bars would be the right thing, but it will be likely be tough to prove unless someone turns on him.
• There was the local media in this town collectively focusing on click-bait crap, overall being conservatively biased, and/or just being understaffed because the public is too lazy to read and pay for valid journalism. Two of the three points are common with most local media across the country.  The conservative bias here stems from so much of the exurban areas the TV news and the Enquirer are desperate to keep. Also, there are locals in the media who are actually Republicans.
• There were the seven days the Republicans had a candidate for Hamilton County Commissioner. That ended with the neo-fascist Trump Supporter Dan Hils (also local FOP president) quitting. We are all better for him quitting, but the CPD rank and file are stuck with him now. It would be good for them to vote him out, but the rank and file CPD has too many right-wing Republicans.
• There were Chabot and Wenstrup embarrassing Ohio during the Impeachment hearings. When you can't deal with the facts and instead jump into false process dogma or outright conspiracy BS, you just need to resign.  Neither will, but history will not forget how they chose the political party and the personal futures over the county and the state of our democracy.
• The Suburban Republicans continued to attack the City any chance they could.  This is a regular occurrence, year after year, so nothing new, just something people need to be reminded occurs again and again.

So, kinda shitty.  I wanted to find the positives.  I really didn't find many.  There were some wait and see actions like the music venue at the Banks deal and the Streetcar "divorce," but that was about it.

The only moment that stood out the dignity of Todd Portune. He stands out as a man with a deeply held sense of public service.  The widespread praise given to Todd by all corners of the political spectrum is the lone shining moment for the Cincinnati area this year.

2020 will be a year with lots of turmoil. Most of it will be coming from the national political race. Some of the above shitty moments will repeat.  Some will get worse. There will be many new ones that will drop on the Cincinnati Area like a ton of bricks.  We will be moving from "meh" down to a "fuck this" year, based on history. The more I write about about, maybe the more I can make lemonade with the shit on the horizon. Bring on Bing with Auld Lang Syne.